scholarly journals Prediksi Penambahan Kasus Covid-19 di Indonesia Melalui Pendekatan Time Series Menggunakan Metode Exponential Smoothing

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 112
Author(s):  
Calvin Mikhailouzna Gibran ◽  
Sulis Setiyawati ◽  
Febri Liantoni
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Percentage Increase ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Accurate Data ◽  
Time Series Approach ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method ◽  
The Impact

The Covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia has emerged starting in 2020. To know the development of cases, a good calculation is needed. A prediction system can help in analyzing accurate data on positive causes, cures, and deaths. The right prediction or forecast can be the answer to the question of the impact that will occur, forecasting will provide an overview to the government and the community so that it is hoped that related parties can prepare for future impacts or even reduce the number of cases growth. In this study, the Exponential Smoothing method was used as a prediction calculation. This method is simple but effective in producing accurate predictions. Forecasting data used comes from the Indonesian government with the assumption that the data is valid and reliable. Based on research that has been carried out to predict the increase in new cases of the Indonesian National Covid-19, the best alpha (α) value is 0.33 with an SSE of 1048027,939. This shows that the number of cases is increasing. The results of forecasting in this study using the time series approach and the SES method are more suitable for predicting the percentage increase in cases than knowing the exact number.

The Right to Information in India Implementation and Impact

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 17
Author(s):  
_______ Naveen ◽  
_____ Priti
Keyword(s):  
Public Life ◽  
Public Authorities ◽  
The Public ◽  
Know How ◽  
The People ◽  
The Government ◽  
Right To Information ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

The Right to Information Act 2005 was passed by the UPA (United Progressive Alliance) Government with a sense of pride. It flaunted the Act as a milestone in India’s democratic journey. It is five years since the RTI was passed; the performance on the implementation frontis far from perfect. Consequently, the impact on the attitude, mindset and behaviour patterns of the public authorities and the people is not as it was expected to be. Most of the people are still not aware of their newly acquired power. Among those who are aware, a major chunk either does not know how to wield it or lacks the guts and gumption to invoke the RTI. A little more stimulation by the Government, NGOs and other enlightened and empowered citizens can augment the benefits of this Act manifold. RTI will help not only in mitigating corruption in public life but also in alleviating poverty- the two monstrous maladies of India.

scholarly journals Correction to: Measuring the impact of the Afordable Care Act Medicaid expansion on access to primary care using an interrupted time series approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth A. Brown ◽  
Brandi M. White ◽  
Walter J. Jones ◽  
Mulugeta Gebregziabher ◽  
Kit N. Simpson
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Medicaid Expansion ◽  
Time Series Approach ◽  
Access To Primary Care ◽  
The Impact

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article.

THE IMPACT OF THE HOTEL ROOM TAX: AN INTERRUPTED TIME SERIES APPROACH

1992 ◽  
Vol 45 (4) ◽  
pp. 433-441 ◽  
Author(s):  
CARL BONHAM ◽  
EDWIN FUJII ◽  
ERIC IM ◽  
JAMES MAK
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Hotel Room ◽  
Time Series Approach ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Tipologi Penindakan Kejahatan Korporasi Dalam Korupsi Dana Bantuan Pandemi Covid-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (01) ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Michelle Kristina
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Corporate Responsibility ◽  
Qualitative Methodology ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Criminal Liability ◽  
Assistance Program ◽  
Community Activities ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

The development of human life nowadays cannot be separated from various aspects such as economy, politics, and technology, including the impact of the coronavirus outbreak (Covid-19 or SARS-CoV-2) which emerged at the end of 2019. Responding to this Covid-19 pandemic outbreak In Indonesia, the government has issued various policies as measures to prevent and handle the spread of Covid-19. One of these policies is to limit community activities. These restrictions have implications for the fulfilment of the economic needs of the affected communities. Responding to the urgency of this community's economic situation, the government held a social assistance program as a measure to ease the community's economic burden. However, the procurement of the program was used as a chance for corruption involving the Ministry of Social Affairs and corporations as the winning bidders. This study uses a qualitative methodology with a normative juridical approach and literature. The approach is carried out by conducting a juridical analysis based on a case approach. The results of the study show that the corporations involved cannot be separated from corporate responsibility. However, the criminal liability process against the corporation is deemed not to reflect justice for the current situation of Indonesia is experiencing. The crime was not carried out in a normal situation but in a situation when Indonesia was trying hard to overcome the urgent situation, the Covid-19 pandemic. Corporate crimes committed by taking advantage of the pandemic situation are deemed necessary to prioritize special action or the weight of criminal acts committed by corporations. The weighting of criminal sanction is the right step as a law enforcement process for corporate crimes during the pandemic.

scholarly journals The Effect of IJ-EPA to Indonesia Export: Interupted Time Series (ITS) Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 128-145
Author(s):  
Yuafanda Kholfi Hartono ◽  
Sumarto Eka Putra
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Export Market ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Indonesia Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJ-EPA) is a bilateral free-trade agreement between Indonesia and Japan that has been started from July 1st, 2008. After more than a decade of its implementation, there is a question that we need to be addressed: Does liberalization of IJ-EPA make Indonesia’s export to Japan increase? This question is important since the government gives a trade-off by giving lower tariff for certain commodities agreed in agreement to increase export. Using Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis based on time-series data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), this article found that the impact of IJ-EPA decreased for Indonesia export to Japan. Furthermore, this paper proposed some potential commodities that can increase the effectiveness of this FTA. The importance of this topic is that Indonesia will maximize the benefit in implementing of agreement that they made from the third biggest destination export of their total export value, so it will be in line with the government's goal to expand export market to solve current account deficit. In addition, the method that used in this paper can be implemented to other countries so that they can maximize the effect of Free Trade Agreement, especially for their export.

scholarly journals RIGHT TO FOOD FOR ALL IN INDIA: MYTH OR REALITY

2018 ◽  
pp. 178-189
Author(s):  
Grishma Soni ◽  
Prachi V. Motiyani
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide Emission ◽  
Right To Life ◽  
Human Right ◽  
Right To Food ◽  
Complex Issue ◽  
The People ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

As we all know that food is the basic Human necessity, without which no one can survive. Making food available for all the people in the world is now days becoming a complex issue. The availability food is decreasing as a result of increase in population that will result in food insecurity or malnutrition. Indian constitution interprets the right to food as part of right to life, which is fundamental human right. Change in climate, the impact of globalization, Global Warming, Carbon dioxide emission from fuel etc. also affects the right to food of many people. This paper examines the situation prevailing in India and looks into the obligations and initiatives by the government of India to ensure Right to Food and make suggestions for addressing the issue and examines the possible way to make the scheme workable to achieve food security.

scholarly journals Forecasting of Groundwater Tax Revenue Using Single Exponential Smoothing Method

2019 ◽  
Vol 125 ◽  
pp. 23006
Author(s):  
Dyna Marisa Khairina ◽  
Aqib Muaddam ◽  
Septya Maharani ◽  
Heliza Rahmania
Keyword(s):  
Reference Value ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Regional Office ◽  
Forecasting Error ◽  
The Government ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method ◽  
Single Exponential

Setting the target of groundwater tax revenues for the next year is an important thing for Kutai Kartanegara Regional Office of Revenue to maximize the regional income and accelerate regional development. Process of setting the target of groundwater tax revenue for the next year still using estimation only and not using a mathematical calculation method that can generate target reference value. If the realization of groundwater tax revenue is not approaching the target, the implementation of development in the Government of Kutai Kartanegara can be disrupted. The mathematical method commonly used to predict revenue value is the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) method, which uses alpha constant value which is randomly selected for the calculation process. Forecasting of groundwater tax revenue for 2018 using groundwater tax revenue data from 2013 to 2017. Single Exponential Smoothing method using alpha constant value consists of 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5. The forecasting error value of each alpha value is calculated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) method. The best result is forecasting using alpha value 0.1 with MAPE error value was 45.868 and the best forecasting value of groundwater tax for 2018 is Rp 443.904.600,7192.

scholarly journals The Right to Education and ICT during COVID-19: An International Perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (21) ◽  
pp. 9091
Author(s):  
Luis Miguel Lázaro Lorente ◽  
Ana Ancheta Arrabal ◽  
Cristina Pulido-Montes
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
International Perspective ◽  
School Closure ◽  
Global Perspective ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Right To Education ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

There is a lack of concluding evidence among epidemiologists and public health specialists about how school closures reduce the spread of COVID-19. Herein, we attend to the generalization of this action throughout the world, specifically in its quest to reduce mortality and avoid infections. Considering the impact on the right to education from a global perspective, this article discusses how COVID-19 has exacerbated inequalities and pre-existing problems in education systems around the world. Therefore, the institutional responses to guaranteeing remote continuity of the teaching–learning process during this educational crisis was compared regionally through international databases. Three categories of analysis were established: infrastructure and equipment, both basic and computer-based, as well as internet access of schools; preparation and means of teachers to develop distance learning; and implemented measures and resources to continue educational processes. The results showed an uneven capacity in terms of response and preparation to face the learning losses derived from school closure, both in low-income regions and within middle- and high-income countries. We concluded that it is essential to articulate inclusive educational policies that support strengthening the government response capacity, especially in low-income countries, to address the sustainability of education.

scholarly journals Hypertension and diabetes treatment affordability and government expenditures following changes in patient cost sharing in the “Farmácia popular” program in Brazil: an interrupted time series study

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel Cristina Martins Emmerick ◽  
Mônica Rodrigues Campos ◽  
Rondineli Mendes da Silva ◽  
Luisa Arueira Chaves ◽  
Andréa Dâmaso Bertoldi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Cost Sharing ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Government Expenditures ◽  
Patient Cost ◽  
Capita Expenditure ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background Increasing medicines availability and affordability is a key goal of Brazilian health policies. “Farmácia Popular” (FP) Program is one of the government’s key strategies to achieve this goal. Under FP, antihypertension (HTN) and antiglycemic (DM) medicines have been provided at subsidized prices in private retail settings since 2006, and free of charge since 2011. We aim to assess the impact of sequential changes in FP benefits on patient affordability and government expenditures for HTN and DM treatment under the FP, and examine their implications for public financing mechanisms and program sustainability. Methods Longitudinal, retrospective study using interrupted time series to analyze: HTN and DM treatment coverage; total and per capita expenditure; percentage paid by MoH; and patient cost sharing. Analyzes were conducted in the dispensing database of the FP program (from 2006 to 2012). Results FP has increased its coverage over time; by December 2012 FP covered on average 13% of DM and 11.5% of HTN utilization, a growth of over 600 and 1500%, respectively. The overall cost per treatment to the MoH declined from R$36.43 (R$ = reais, the Brazilian currency) to 18.74 for HTN and from R$33.07to R$15.05 for DM over the period analyzed, representing a reduction in per capita cost greater than 50%. The amount paid by patients for the medicines covered increased over time until 2011, but then declined to zero. We estimate that to treat all patients in need for HTN and DM in 2012 under FP, the Government would need to expend 97% of the total medicines budget. Conclusions FP rapidly increased its coverage in terms of both program reach and proportion of cost subsidized during the period analyzed. Costs of individual HTN and DM treatments in FP were reduced after 2011 for both patients (free) and government (better negotiated prices). However, overall FP expenditures by MoH increased due to markedly increased utilization. The FP is sustainable as a complementary policy but cannot feasibly substitute for the distribution of medicines by the SUS.

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