International Migration in Russia: Dynamics, Policies, Forecast

2011 ◽  
pp. 35-53
Author(s):  
S. Ivanov
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Size ◽  
International Migration ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Net Migration ◽  
Fertility Trend ◽  
And Migration

Large flows of migrants into low fertility countries increase the weight of international migration in the population dynamics. The current net migration inflow to Russia is about 350 thousand people per year. Migration hypotheses of the population projections include the assumption of constancy of this level until 2050; net migration of 50 thousand people per year; zero net migration and net migration at the level of 900 thousand people per year. Migration hypotheses are combined with the hypotheses of future trends in fertility, including the low, the middle and the high variants. With low fertility and zero net migration the population by 2050 will be reduced by almost half. Stable migration combined with low fertility will not prevent depopulation of the order of almost 1/3 by 2050. If fertility trend follows the high path and migration remains constant the population size will be restored in 10 years and then will increase by 10 per cent. Тo restore the population size by 2020 with slowly increasing fertility, approximately 1, 5 million people more should immigrate into Russia every year than emigrate from it.

The Role of Trans-Tasman Migration in Forecasting the New Zealand Population

1993 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 395-415 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacques Poot
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
International Migration ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Net Migration ◽  
Zealand Population ◽  
Dominant Component ◽  
Population Forecasting

Population growth in New Zealand is rather volatile. International migration is the main cause of this. However, as is common in many countries, official population projections are based on a range of exogenously-set fixed levels of net migration. This article argues that, for the short to medium term, such projections can be improved upon by adopting econometric methodologies which take explicitly into account the demographic-economic two-way interaction in certain components of international migration. Specifically, the article summarizes research on the causes and consequences of trans-Tasman migration, which is the dominant component of the volatility in New Zealand's net migration. It is shown how these findings can aid population forecasting.

scholarly journals Sensitivity Analysis in Multiregional Demographic Models

1977 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 653-674 ◽  
Author(s):  
F J Willekens
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Life Table ◽  
Matrix Model ◽  
Structural Parameters ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Demographic Models ◽  
Sensitivity Functions ◽  
And Migration

The theory of multiregional mathematical demography investigates how fertility, mortality, and migration combine to shape the growth of multiregional population systems. Population dynamics have been studied for cases where the structural parameters, namely the age-specific rates of fertility, mortality, and migration, are fixed. This paper addresses the question of how the system behaves under changing structural parameters. By applying the technique of matrix differentiation, sensitivity functions are derived which link changes in multiregional life-table statistics and in population projections to changes in the age-specific rates. A review of the technique, which may be used for the sensitivity analysis of any matrix model, is given in the appendix.

THE INTERACTING EFFECTS OF PRICES AND WEATHER ON POPULATION CYCLES IN A PREINDUSTRIAL COMMUNITY

1998 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
SUSAN SCOTT ◽  
S. R. DUNCAN ◽  
C. J. DUNCAN
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Short Wavelength ◽  
Population Cycles ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
Epidemic Disease ◽  
And Migration ◽  
First Year Of Life ◽  
Migratory Movements ◽  
Grain Prices

The exogenous cycles and population dynamics of the community at Penrith, Cumbria, England, have been studied (1557-1812) using aggregative analysis, family reconstitution and time series analysis. This community was living under marginal conditions for the first 200 years and the evidence presented is of a homeostatic regime where famine, malnutrition and epidemic disease acted to regulate the balance between resources and population size. This provides an ideal historic population for an investigation of the direct and indirect effects of malnutrition. Throughout the period studied, a short wavelength oscillation in grain prices was apparently the major external factor that drove exogenous cycles in mortality, birth rate, and migration. In particular, the different responses of children to variations in food supply are emphasised; fluctuations in poor nutrition correlated significantly with the variations in mortality rates for infants (probably indirectly during pregnancy and directly during the first year of life) and for young children (via susceptibility to lethal infectious diseases). Migratory movements contributed to the maintenance of homeostasis in the population dynamics. A medium wavelength cycle in low winter temperatures was associated with a rise in adult mortality which, in turn, promoted an influx of migrants into this saturated habitat. A model incorporating these interacting associations between vital events and exogenous cycles is presented: grain prices were an important density-dependent factor and constituted the major component of the negative feedback of this population and drove the exogenous, short wavelength mortality cycles. Cycles of births and immigration provide a positive feedback for the build-up of susceptibles and the initiation of smallpox epidemics and increased population size.

scholarly journals Urban and Peri-urban Population Dynamics in Case Study Cities within Europe

2009 ◽  
pp. 109-122
Author(s):  
Emma Terämä
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Small Region ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Daily Work ◽  
Future Fertility

This article deals with population dynamics in chosen European locations with different age structures, future expected growth developments and urbanization prospects. The case study approach was chosen in order to depict spatially relevant details and characteristics of a small region with an urban core. The populations are subjected to a set of four possible futures, which are called scenarios. The demographics of each are different, and these variations are shown by means of population projections. The results show that in Koper, Slovenia and the Warsaw region, Poland the cities undergo dynamics that is very sensitive to the age structure of the population, future fertility, mortality and international migration prospects. The degree of urbanization further depends on local movement of population, which can be muffled by daily work-migration. Data availability on the local level is proven to be a challenge for detailed demographic studies, as is future uncertainty with respect to migration, be it local or international. Despite the uncertainties in the future levels of migration, it can be seen that age-structure and current low fertility levels have a long-standing impact on the demography of a region.

scholarly journals International Migration - Major Trends in Demography: A Hungarian Example

2003 ◽  
pp. 181-200
Author(s):  
Pál Péter Tóth
Keyword(s):  
World War I ◽  
Population Size ◽  
International Migration ◽  
Population Development ◽  
World War ◽  
Age Composition ◽  
Net Migration ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Hungarian Population ◽  
Peace Treaties

Besides fertility and mortality and the balance between the two, migration also injluencespopulation development in terms af size, sex and age composition. Through theanalysis af population development in Hungary, this paper investigated the role afinternational migration in demographic processes. Wehave followed closely the processin which, after the demographic catastrophes in Hungarian history (1239-1290and 1550-1650), the missing population was replaced by foreigners settling down inHungary. The role played by this settled population has been examined as well. Wehave outlined the ejfects ofthe third demographic disaster (1914-20), which has determinedthe development af Hungarian population up till the present day. As a consequenceaf the peace treaties at the end af World War I Hungary lost two-thirds of itspopulation, thereby changing the structure af the population profoundly. Besides theabove-mentioned processes we have demonstrated the direct and indirect ejfects afcontemporary migration on the development af population size. We have also dealtwith the migratory losses caused by the revolution af 1956 and the decades afterwardsand we have shown the way net migration has injluenced the composition afthe Hungarian population between 1881 and 1990. The migratory balance af Hungaryhas been negative ever since 1901, which has also contributed ta thefact that theHungarian population started decreasing two decades before this occurred in themajority af European states.

scholarly journals Distribution and migration of foreigners as a part of the socio-geographical differentiation of Czechia

Geografie ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 116 (4) ◽  
pp. 422-439 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zdeněk Čermák ◽  
Eva Janská
Keyword(s):  
International Migration ◽  
Internal Migration ◽  
Regional Differences ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Geographical Differentiation ◽  
Precise Position ◽  
Net Migration ◽  
Important Target ◽  
Internal Mobility ◽  
And Migration

The distribution of foreigners is becoming an essential part of the sociogeographical differentiation of Czechia. In addition to international migration, the spatial distribution pattern of foreigners are further modified according to their internal mobility, which, compared to the Czech population, is much higher. This mobility is influenced by the precise position of foreigners in the labour market and their increased flexibility. Prague is the most attractive centre for international migration. It functions as a gateway city and represents the most important target for the internal migration of foreigners as well. The results of quantitative analysis show possible trends in regional differences in net migration and the reasons behind these processes, including primarily economic factors.

scholarly journals Growing gap in population dynamics, closing the gap in population size: the European Union and the United States compared

Geografie ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 123 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-62
Author(s):  
Jiřina Kocourková ◽  
Luděk Šídlo ◽  
Martin Novák ◽  
Luděk Sýkora
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
European Union ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Population Change ◽  
The United States ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Eu

This paper investigates differences in population development in the European Union and the United States. The population projections recently published by the United Nations forecast expected a slowdown in growth and a shrinking of the EU population and a continued growth in the US. Therefore, the paper aims to find out which components of population change are primarily responsible for the different population dynamics. The article first explores the role of population change and migration in total population growth. Then it investigates fertility and mortality patterns, focusing on demographic behaviour of ethnic/racial groups in the US and regional disparities in Europe. The paper documents that fertility differences primarily cause the different population dynamics in the EU and the US. This is reflected in the forecast convergence towards the same population size.

scholarly journals Density Dependence of Egg Recruitment and Moth Dispersal in Spruce Budworms

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 706 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacques Régnière ◽  
Vincent G. Nealis
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Boreal Forests ◽  
Random Perturbation ◽  
Spruce Budworm ◽  
Formal Context ◽  
Low Density ◽  
Density Dependent ◽  
Migration Rates ◽  
Net Migration ◽  
And Migration

Egg recruitment quantifies the relative importance of realized fecundity and migration rates in the population dynamics of highly mobile insects. We develop here a formal context upon which to base the measurement and interpretation of egg recruitment in population dynamics of eastern and western spruce budworms, two geographically separated species that share a very similar ecology. Under most circumstances, per capita egg recruitment rates in these budworms are higher in low-density populations and lower in high-density populations, relative to the regional mean: Low-density populations are nearly always migration sinks for gravid moths, and dense populations nearly always sources. The slope of this relationship, measured on a log scale, is negatively correlated with migration rate, and ranges between 0 and −1. The steeper the slope, the more marked net migration. Using our western spruce budworm observations, we found strong evidence of density-dependent emigration in budworms, so migration is not simply a random perturbation in the lagged, density-dependent stochastic process leading to budworm outbreaks. It is itself statistically and biologically density-dependent. Therefore, moth migration is a synchronizing factor and a spread mechanism that is essential to understanding the development and expansion of spruce budworm outbreaks at regional scales in the boreal forests of North America.

The Effect of Health Environment on Migration Flows

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 595-610
Author(s):  
Huyen Thuong Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
International Migration ◽  
Health Indicators ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Poor Countries ◽  
Net Migration ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Migration Flows ◽  
And Migration

International migration has become more popular recently in the globalization context. The recorded number of international migration cases is much fewer than the actual number in the last few decades. Migration is considered to have various consequences in both origin and destination countries. Understanding determinants of migration is necessary for long-term sustainable development policies. This study examines a causal relationship between health environment and migration flows by exploiting a panel country level data set on health indicators and net migration from 1940 to 1987. An increase in life expectancy at birth has led to a decrease in net migration in the whole sample countries as well as in non-poor countries. By using global mortality rate constructed based on information on the reduction in mortality following the epidemiological transition in 1940s as instrumental variable, 2SLS methodology allows controlling for endogeneity problem. The results are robust even applying various additional tests. Overall, health environment has a negative effect on migration flows.

scholarly journals Contribution of migration to replacement of population in Turkey

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 377-392 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dalkhat M Ediev ◽  
Mustafa Murat Yüceşahin
Keyword(s):  
Low Fertility ◽  
Limited Data ◽  
Population Replacement ◽  
Migration Patterns ◽  
Fertility Trends ◽  
Net Migration ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Demographic Surveys ◽  
The Relationship

Relationship between migration and replacement of population has attracted a great deal of scholarly attention. Migration is considered to be a key factor in the growth and replacement of populations. Net migration sometimes exceeds natural change and drive population growth. Migration can compensate for missing births in low-fertility areas, provinces, or countries. Although past and recent general fertility trends, regional inequalities, and migration patterns in Turkey have been well documented through demographic surveys and censuses, the relationship between migration and the replacement of population by region in the country has not been adequately examined. Thereby, in this study, we explore the contribution of migration to the replacement of population in Turkey. Turkey’s regions, at the NUTS 1 level, are very diverse in their levels of fertility and migration, which makes it very interesting to study the two processes in tandem. We use a recently proposed methodology of studying the population replacement levels through the indicators of Combined Reproduction and Times to Half-Replacement, which can be computed from limited data and offers good insights into the demographic consequences of a given combination of fertility and migration levels.

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