Budget Policy and Economic Growth

2013 ◽  
pp. 35-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Idrisov ◽  
S. Sinelnikov-Murylev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Policy Implementation ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Limited Budget ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Budget Policy ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Budget Institutions ◽  
Expenditure Structure

The paper analyzes the prior approaches to budget policy implementation in the context of accelerating economic growth. The authors review the academic issues of short and long term economic growth and discuss the Russian budget policy opportunities and constraints. The authors conclude that (1) in the current situation Russia has quite limited budget measures to smooth economic growth; (2) options to raise total government spending in short and middle-run perspective are absent, and, thus, (3) it is needed to change the expenditure structure along with transforming budget institutions in order to create preconditions for long-run economic growth.

scholarly journals The perspectives of long-term growth in Russia

2015 ◽  
Vol 65 (s1) ◽  
pp. 7-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgy Idrisov ◽  
Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Accelerate Growth ◽  
Budget Institutions

The paper analyses the inconsequence and problems of Russian economic policy to accelerate economic growth. The authors consider three components of growth rate (potential, Russian business cycle, and world business cycle components) and conclude that in order to pursue an effective economic policy to accelerate growth, it has to be addressed to the potential (long-run) growth component. The main ingredients of this policy are government spending restructuring and budget institutions reform, labour and capital markets reform as well as productivity growth.

Forming Sources of Long-run Growth: How to Understand Them?

2014 ◽  
pp. 4-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Idrisov ◽  
S. Sinelnikov-Murylev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Accelerate Growth ◽  
Budget Institutions

The paper analyzes the inconsequence and problems of Russian economic policy to accelerate economic growth. The authors consider three components of growth rate (potential, Russian business cycle and world business cycle components) and conclude that in order to pursue an effective economic policy to accelerate growth, it has to be addressed to the potential (long-run) growth component. The main ingredients of this policy are government spending restructuring and budget institutions reform, labor and capital markets reforms, productivity growth.

Welfare Consequences of the Six-Year Presidential Term Evaluated in the Context of a Model of the U.S. Economy

1983 ◽  
Vol 77 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henry W. Chappell ◽  
William R. Keech
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Public Welfare ◽  
Simulation Experiments ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The U.S

We evaluate the six-year presidential term proposal in the context of a model of the U.S. economy characterized by a short-run but not a long-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Votes and public welfare are separately conceptualized as functions of inflation and unemployment, which are indirectly controlled by the president through manipulation of government spending.In a series of simulation experiments, the vote-maximizing choice of policy instruments led to less we(fare loss with six- than with four-year terms under most conditions. Ironically, vote maximizing was shown to lead not only to short- and long-term welfare loss, but also to long-run political disadvantage.

scholarly journals The impacts of public investment on private investment and economic growth

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Canh Thi Nguyen ◽  
Lua Thi Trinh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Sector ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short And Long Term

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess both short and long-term influences of public investment on economic growth and test the hypothesis that whether public investment promotes or demotes private investment in Vietnam. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the approach of autoregressive distributed lag model and Vietnam’s macro data in the period of 1990-2016, to evaluate the short and long-term effects of public investment on economic growth and private investment. The model evaluates the impact of public investment on economic growth and private investment based on the neoclassical theories. The public investment which strongly affects economic growth is also reflected by aggregate supply and demand. Public investment directly impacts aggregate demand as a government expenditure and aggregate supply as a production function (capital factor). Findings The results from this research indicate that public investment in Vietnam in the past period does affect economic growth in the pattern of an inverted-U shape as of Barro (1990), with positive effects mostly occurring from the second year and negative effects of constraining long-term growth. Meanwhile, investment from the private sector, state-owned enterprises, and FDI has positive effects on short-term economic growth and state-owned capital stock has positive impacts on economic growth in both the short and long run. The estimated influence of public investment on private investment also shows a similar inverted-U shape in which public investment have crowding-in private investment short-term but crowding-out in the long run. Practical implications The empirical findings in this study can be used for conducting a more efficient policy in restructuring the state sector investment in Vietnam. Originality/value The main contributions in this study are: to evaluate the impacts of public investment on economic growth and private investment, the authors extracted public investment in infrastructure from aggregate investment of state sector (as previous studies used); the authors also uses state-owned capital stock variable including cumulative public investment and state-owned enterprises investment suggesting that this could control for the different orders of integration between the stock and flow variable and improve the experimental characteristics of the equation to a higher degree.

scholarly journals HUBUNGAN KAUSALITAS KEMISKINAN, TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN, DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI PROVINSI SULAWESI SELATAN

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-23
Author(s):  
Akhmad Akhmad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Short Term ◽  
South Sulawesi ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short And Long Term

Economic development basically aims to increase economic growth, reduce poverty and unemployment. Therefore the research aims to find out the causal relationship between economic growth, unemployment and poverty in the Southern Province. This research used panel data of 24 districts / cities in South Sulawesi Province during 2007 to 2018, which was obtained from the Central Statistics Agency. Data were then analyzed using Vector Autoregression analysis. The results showed that shocks to economic growth have an impact on reducing unemployment and poverty rates both short and long term. Meanwhile shocks to unemployment, have an impact on increasing poverty rates in the short and long term, and have an impact on declining economic growth in the short term, but slowly economic growth returns to the balance point. Furthermore, the shock to poverty also has an impact on increasing unemployment in the short term, but slowly leads to a point of convergence in the long run. It is better to make economic growth decrease in the short term, but slowly towards the point of balance in the long run.

scholarly journals INTERAKSI ASPEK PERMODALAN, RISIKO PEMBIAYAAN, DAN INDIKATOR MAKROEKONOMI DALAM MEMPENGARUHI PROFITABILITAS BPRS DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2014-2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 401
Author(s):  
Feri Irawan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short And Long Term

<p align="center"><strong><em>ABSTRACT</em></strong></p><p><em>This study aims to analyze the effect of capital aspects (CAR), financing risk (NPF) and macroeconomic variables including economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate on profitability (ROE) in the short and long term. By using time series data for the monthly period from 2013-2018 and the Error-Correction Model (ECM) and cointegration approach, it is found that CAR and NPF do not have a significant effect on ROE in the short and long term. Economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate in the short term do not have a significant effect on ROE, in the long run economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate have a significant effect on ROE. In the short term, economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate disturb the balance of profitability, but in the long run it returns to its equilibrium level. It is necessary to integrate the BPRS policy strategy in managing capital and risk with government policies related to economic growth and inflation.</em></p><p><em> </em></p><p align="center"><strong><em>ABSTRACT</em></strong></p><p><em>Penelitian bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh aspek permodalan (CAR), risiko pembiayaan (NPF) dan variabel makroekonomi yang meliputi pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dam BI Rate  terhadap profitabilitas (ROE) dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Dengan menggunakan data time series periode bulanan dari tahun 2013-2018 dan pendekatan Error-Correction Model  (ECM) dan kointegrasi, ditemukan bahwa CAR dan NPF tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap ROE dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate dalam jangka pendek tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap ROE, dalam jangka panjang pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate berpengaruh signfikan terhadap ROE. Pada jangka pendek, pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate menggangu keseimbangan profitabilitas namun dalam jangka panjang kembali pada tingkat keseimbangannya. Diperlukan pengintegrasi strategi kebijakan BPRS dalam mengelola permodalan dan risiko dengan kebijakan pemerintah terkait dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi.</em><em></em></p><p align="right"> </p>

scholarly journals The Effect of Regional Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth in North Sumatera

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 15-20
Author(s):  
Laila Rohimah ◽  
Ahmad Albar Tanjung ◽  
Indah Permata Sari Pulungan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
North Sumatra

The aim of this research is to evaluate and provide new evidence of the influence of regional fiscal policy with government expenditure instruments and tax revenue on economic growth in North Sumatra Province. The data used are quarterly data from 2011: 1 to 2017: 4 sourced from the Central Statistics Agency of North Sumatra Province (CSA). The analytical method used in this study is the error correction model (ECM) method. The findings of this study are that government expenditure (GE) has a positive and significant effect in the short and long term on the economic growth (PDB) of the province of North Sumatra during the study period. While tax revenue (TAX) in the long-run has a positive and significant effect, but in the short term, it has a positive but not significant effect on the economic growth (PDB) of the province of North Sumatra during the study period.

scholarly journals Intermediary performance of Islamic banks in the disruption era: Does it contribute to economic growth?

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-115
Author(s):  
Umrotul Khasanah ◽  
Ahmad Tibrizi Soni Wicaksono
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Vector Error Correction Models

The study aims to measure the intermediary performance of Islamic banks in relation to economic growth in Indonesia in the short and long term. There are four main variables used, namely financing, fund placement in BI (Central Bank of Indonesia), investment in securities, and third-party funds in all Islamic banks from 2007 to 2019. The data were tested using vector error correction models (VECM), Granger Causality, Impulse Response Function (IRF), and Variant Decomposition (VDC) to examine causality relationships, the short- and long-term effects, shocks, and variances in Islamic bank intermediary performance to economic growth. The results show that there is a two-way causality relationship between financing and third-party funds to economic growth. While in the short term, fund placement in BI, investment in securities, and financing have a significant influence on economic growth, but in the long run, only the placement of funds in BI will affect economic growth. Also, only fund placement in BI can shock and significantly contribute to economic growth in the long term. The overall intermediary performance of Islamic banks has not contributed to Indonesia’s economic growth in the long term.

ANALISIS PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI, KEMISIKINAN, DAN KORUPSI DI NEGARA ASEAN LOWER MIDDLE INCOME

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Riska Dewi Putri ◽  
Hasdi Aimon
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short And Long Term

This study aim to indentify and analyze responses economic growth, poverty and corruption in ASEAN lower middle income countries. Type of this research is descriptive and associative, used a secondary panel data from 2010 to 2017. This research was conducted using the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model through the analysis of Impulse Response Funtion (IRF) and Variance Decomposition (VD) to determine the variability response of a particular variable due to the shock of other variables. The results of this study indicate that: (1) Variability of economic growth is not contributed by the shock of poverty and corruption in the short term, but in the long run the variability of economic growth is contributed by the shock of poverty and corruption. (2) In the short variability of poverty is not contributed by the shock of economic growth and corruption term, but in the long run economic growth and corruption contribute to influencing poverty variability. (3) The variability of corruption is contributed by the shock of economic growth and poverty in the short and long term.

scholarly journals The Dynamic Impact of Government Expenditure in Education on Economic Growth

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 1487-1507
Author(s):  
Norimah Rambeli ◽  
Dayang Affizzah Awang Marikan ◽  
Jan M. Podivinsky ◽  
Rosilawati Amiruddin ◽  
Ismadi Ismail
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Financial Planning ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Dynamic Impact ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

The focal aim of this study is to examine the validation of education-led economic growth hypothesis in Malaysia under the recovery period following the 2008 world economic crisis. Specifically, this study implemented the augmented Cobb-Douglas model in order to observe the dynamic relationship between selected variables including, industrial production index, gross fixed capital formation, employment, government spending on education and broad money supply. This study adopted the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) in analysing the dynamic impact between variables and generally supports the education-led growth hypothesis in the short and long run. Specifically the study corroborates the bidirectional causality between education spending and economic growth, and vice versa, in the short run. The result also reveals that long-run equilibrium relationship exists between government expenditure in education and economic growth in Malaysia during post-crisis recovery regime. The education-led growth hypothesis can thus be inferred for the economy following crisis. The government should thus be advised that increasing education sector spending should increase post-crisis economic growth in both the short and long run. This is further strengthened by Granger causality test result which suggests unidirectional causality that runs from financial variable to economic growth. It is accordingly suggested that financial variable is a determinant of government spending on education in the aftermath of the economic crisis. Additionally, the study also supports the role of capital and employment on economic growth in the long term. By implication, the study suggests that financial planning as related to national education policies must be carefully and meticulously crafted, to ensure future success. This is linked to the investment in human capital which includes education expenditure at different levels that is essentially important to national long-term planning. The specific financial planning for human capital development is therefore very important to ensure the expenditure incurred contributes to sustainable economic development in Malaysia in the long term.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document