scholarly journals Impact of containment type on Covid-19 propagation in Morocco using the SIR model.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nada Lebkiri ◽  
Zakaria Abidli ◽  
Sara Jadda ◽  
Abdelrhani Mokhtari ◽  
Abdelmajid Soulaymani
Keyword(s):  
Epidemiological Study ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Medical Science ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Epidemiological Model ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
First Case ◽  
Over Time

Objective and mehtods: Our objective is to determine the containment effect on the spread of Covid 19 in Morocco. The methodology is based on an epidemiological study whose objective is to take stock of the current situation and to estimate the future spread of Covid-19 over time in Morocco. Several conditions were considered using the SIR epidemiological model for a better reliability of the results. During the study period from the appearance of the first case until 19 June 2020, Morocco reported 9074 cases of infections, 213 deaths with a lethality of 2.35% and a mortality of 6.04 per million inhabitants. Results and Conclusion: The results of the SIR model show a sudden increase in infections. The peak would be 4.4 million inhabitants or 12% of the total population under confined conditions. Selon ces résultats,Containment is one of the most effective methods of reducing the risk of infection. Bangladesh Journal of Medical Science Vol.19(0) 2020 p. S 58-S 65

scholarly journals Two viruses competition in the SIR model of epidemic spread: application to COVID-19

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergey A Trigger ◽  
Alexander M. Ignatov
Keyword(s):  
Sir Model ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Over Time

The SIR model of the epidemic spread is used for consideration the problem of the competition of two viruses having different contagiousness. It is shown how the more contagious strain replaces over time the less contagious one. In particular the results can be applied to the current situation when the omicron strain appeared in population affected by the delta strain.

scholarly journals A century of transitions in New York City's measles dynamics

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (106) ◽  
pp. 20150024 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karsten Hempel ◽  
David J. D. Earn
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Epidemiological Model ◽  
Qualitative Dynamics ◽  
Measles Incidence

Infectious diseases spreading in a human population occasionally exhibit sudden transitions in their qualitative dynamics. Previous work has successfully predicted such transitions in New York City's historical measles incidence using the seasonally forced susceptible–infectious–recovered (SIR) model. This work relied on a dataset spanning 45 years (1928–1973), which we have extended to 93 years (1891–1984). We identify additional dynamical transitions in the longer dataset and successfully explain them by analysing attractors and transients of the same mechanistic epidemiological model.

scholarly journals Web Application for Statistical Tracking and Predicting the Evolution of Active Cases with the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)

2021 ◽  
pp. 70-74
Author(s):  
Iulia Clitan ◽  
◽  
Adela Puscasiu ◽  
Vlad Muresan ◽  
Mihaela Ligia Unguresan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Web Application ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
The Novel ◽  
End User ◽  
First Case ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Over Time

Since February 2020, when the first case of infection with SARS COV-2 virus appeared in Romania, the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic continues to have an ascending allure, reaching in September 2020 a second wave of infections as expected. In order to understand the evolution and spread of this disease over time and space, more and more research is focused on obtaining mathematical models that are able to predict the evolution of active cases based on different scenarios and taking into account the numerous inputs that influence the spread of this infection. This paper presents a web responsive application that allows the end user to analyze the evolution of the pandemic in Romania, graphically, and that incorporates, unlike other COVID-19 statistical applications, a prediction of active cases evolution. The prediction is based on a neural network mathematical model, described from the architectural point of view.

scholarly journals An Epidemiological Study on Factors Influencing Gaming Disorder- an Online Cross- Sectional Design

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rabbanie Tariq Wani ◽  
Imrose Rashid
Keyword(s):  
Epidemiological Study ◽  
Online Gaming ◽  
Gaming Disorder ◽  
Online Questionnaire ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Cross Sectional Design ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background: Gaming disorders have increased over time due to easy availability of online gaming. The aim of this study is to determine the factors influencing the gaming disorders. Methods: An online questionnaire was circulated on gaming platforms for the assessment as per IGD20 & DSM5 criteria. Results: A significant correlation was found between duration of play and gaming disorders (r= 0.131, p<0.05). The scores were concurrent as per IGD20 and DSM5 criteria. Conclusion: Undiagnosed gaming disorder among gamers needs to be addressed. Duration of playing of games also needs to be checked inorder to reduce the prevalence of gaming disorders.

Covid-19: the role of infection control in protecting the healthcare workersin Viet Nam

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dinh Binh Tran
Keyword(s):  
Infection Control ◽  
Healthcare Workers ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Viet Nam ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Ministry Of Health ◽  
Work Pressure

Protecting healthcare workers (HCWs) is a top priority in COVID-19 pandemic at this time. HCWs who carry the pathogens will increase the risk of infecting their patients, their colleagues as well as the community. Therefore, HCWs must follow the guidance of preventive measures issued by the Ministry of Health to ensure safety, although that means they have to work under uncomfortable condition. That is the reason why the role of surveillance and assessment the risk of infection is extremely critical. Only with regular and continuous supervision, with instructions and reminders, can HCWs effectively prevent the COVID-19 infection, especially while being under intensity - work pressure of the current situation.

FRI-042-Prevalence and male/female ratio of autoimmune liver diseases are increasing over time in Japan: Hospital-based epidemiological study

2019 ◽  
Vol 70 (1) ◽  
pp. e402-e403
Author(s):  
Kosuke Matsumoto ◽  
Atsushi Tanaka ◽  
Mitsuru Mori ◽  
Hiromasa Ohira ◽  
Susumu Tazuma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Epidemiological Study ◽  
Liver Diseases ◽  
Female Ratio ◽  
Autoimmune Liver Diseases ◽  
Male Female Ratio ◽  
Over Time

Repetition of Parasiticide: An Epidemiological and Clinical Study

1988 ◽  
Vol 153 (6) ◽  
pp. 792-800 ◽  
Author(s):  
Norman Kreitman ◽  
Patricia Casey
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Clinical Study ◽  
Social Class ◽  
Epidemiological Study ◽  
Clinical Characteristics ◽  
Clinical Presentation ◽  
Treatment Centre ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Repetitive Pattern

The dramatic clinical presentation of parasuicide tends to deflect attention from the repetitive pattern of this behaviour in many patients. In an epidemiological study of annual cohorts of parasuicides for 1972, 1977, and 1982 admitted to the Regional Poisoning Treatment Centre, Edinburgh, it was found that for certain subgroups of the population ‘repeaters' were actually commoner than ‘first-ever’ patients, and a number of risk factors were identified, of which social class was particularly important. The clinical characteristics of patients distinguished by their frequency of repetition were also described, with special attention to the stability of these differentiating features over time. It is suggested that the habitual repeater requires closer study, and that the factors which lead to initiation into a parasuicidal ‘career’ are not necessarily those which conduce to repetition.

Influence of Acetic Acid on the Integrity and Protectiveness by an Iron Carbonate (FeCO3) Corrosion Product Layer

CORROSION ◽  
10.5006/3659 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vanessa Fajardo ◽  
Maryam Eslami ◽  
Yoon-Seok Choi ◽  
Bruce Brown ◽  
Srdjan Nesic
Keyword(s):  
Acetic Acid ◽  
Electrochemical Quartz Crystal Microbalance ◽  
Product Layer ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
Ph Change ◽  
Iron Carbonate ◽  
X65 Steel ◽  
Immersion Experiment ◽  
Steel Substrates ◽  
Over Time

ABSTRACT The effect of undissociated acetic acid on the integrity of iron carbonate (FeCO3) layer formed on platinum and X65 steel substrates is investigated. Experiments were conducted using buffered solutions with 0.8 - 5 mM undissociated acetic acid. For the platinum substrates, changes in the FeCO3 layer were monitored via in-situ electrochemical quartz crystal microbalance (EQCM) measurements. This investigation was supported by performing electrochemical experiments, under comparable conditions, on the X65 steel specimens, linking the integrity of FeCO3 layer to its corrosion protection effect. The EQCM measurements revealed that the addition of acetic acid, at all concentrations tested here, caused partial dissolution of the FeCO3 layer. The dissolution occurred selectively, with the outer layer dissolving first, leaving behind an inner FeCO3 layer at the end of the immersion experiment. The electrochemical results revealed that introducing the acetic acid caused a sudden increase in the corrosion rate, which over time returned to a lower value similar in magnitude to that seen before addition of the acetic acid. This was attributed to the protection provided by the inner FeCO3 layer, which was only mildly affected by the addition of acetic acid and was able to repair over time. It was proven that the dissolution of the protective FeCO3 layer in the presence of acetic acid was not due to a small pH change but rather due to the formation of ferrous acetate complexes and changes in ionic strength, which decreases the FeCO3 saturation values.

Simulating vortices and jets in deep atmospheres of gas giant planets

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rakesh Yadav ◽  
Jeremy Bloxham ◽  
Moritz Heimpel
Keyword(s):  
Giant Planets ◽  
Self Organization ◽  
Surface Dynamics ◽  
Spherical Shells ◽  
Zonal Flows ◽  
Rich Picture ◽  
The Third ◽  
First Case ◽  
Dynamical Features ◽  
Over Time

&lt;p&gt;Decades of observations have painted a dynamic and rich picture of the atmosphere on Saturn and Jupiter. Both planets have a dominant prograde equatorial jet, and strong zonal flows that alternate in direction at higher latitudes, with Saturn also having a mysterious hexagon shape embedded in one of the polar jets. Both planets also have numerous vortices or storms of different sizes scattered on their surface. All these features are striking examples of turbulent self-organization. While observations abound, the physics behind the formation of these dynamical features is still uncertain. Two interpretations have emerged over time: In one, the surface features are shallow, extending to depths ranging from 10s to 100s of kilometers, while, in the other, they extend to 1000s of kilometers. Here we utilize the deep interpretation and investigate the properties of rotating convection in deep spherical shells. We present three cases: In the first case a giant polar cyclone, alternating zonal flows, and a high latitude eastward jet having polygonal patterns form simultaneously; The second case generates alternating zonal flows as well as numerous cyclones and anticyclones on various latitudes; And, the third case exclusively generates anticyclones with few being as large as Jupiter's great red spot. We discuss what drives these features in these turbulent simulations, and what can we learn from these cases about the interior and surface dynamics of Saturn and Jupiter.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Diagnostic and Management Tool for Monitoring Patients Implanted with a Shape-Changing Corneal Inlay

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 190-196
Author(s):  
Ralph Chu ◽  
Briana R. Lee
Keyword(s):  
Postoperative Period ◽  
Management Tool ◽  
Corneal Densitometry ◽  
First Case ◽  
Corneal Inlay ◽  
Over Time

We report two cases that underwent corneal inlay implantation under a femtosecond flap. The first case had no complications during the postoperative period. Pentacam maps remained stable over time: corneal densitometry (CD) values had less than 2 units of change across visits up to 3 years. Axial/sagittal topography maps showed a stable Kmax (∼47 D), i.e., less than 1 D change between visits. The second case developed haze at 8 months postoperatively. CD increased by more than 4 units from 3 to 8 M and Kmax increased by 2.6 D. The patient was prescribed steroids and 1 month later the haze regressed, resulting in pre-haze CD and Kmax values, similar to the ones at 3 months.

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