Projected change in meteorological drought characteristics using regional climate model data for the Hunter region of Australia

2020 ◽  
Vol 80 (2) ◽  
pp. 85-104
Author(s):  
N Lockart ◽  
AS Kiem ◽  
R Chiong ◽  
HH Askland ◽  
A Maguire ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Windows ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Natural Phenomenon ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
Standardised Precipitation Index ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
Hunter Region ◽  
The Impact

Drought is a natural phenomenon that can have prolonged and widespread impacts on many communities and environments. The impact of climate change on drought is uncertain, which makes it challenging to quantify how future droughts will affect society. This study uses downscaled rainfall data from 4 global climate models (GCMs) and 2 time windows (1990-2009; 2060-2079) to estimate changes in the average length and intensity of single drought events, and the total number of months experiencing drought during each time window for the Hunter region of Australia. This region was chosen as it is economically important for Australia, and will be the focus of future work that examines the social and policy implications of projected climate change impacts on drought and human displacement. The changes in drought characteristics are assessed using Standardised Precipitation Index and deciles approaches, and 2 datasets: (1) downscaled GCM rainfall; and (2) historical gridded rainfall adjusted via a quantile-quantile approach conditioned on the GCM rainfall. Key findings are that the changes in drought characteristics vary spatially across the study region, and are highly dependent on the downscaled GCM rainfall used, with some regions showing opposing changes in drought characteristics between the ensemble members. Further, the change in drought characteristics between the current and future time windows tends to be greater using the downscaled GCM rainfall when compared with the GCM-adjusted historical rainfall. These results pose the question of how GCM projections should be used to develop robust but cost-effective climate adaptation strategies.

scholarly journals Investigation of Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Stream Flow of Guder Catchment, Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bekam Bekele Gulti ◽  
Boja Mokonnen Manyazew ◽  
Abdulkerim Bedewi Serur
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Open Space ◽  
Smart Growth ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Climate change (CC) and land use/cover change (LUCC) are the main drivers of streamflow change. In this paper, we investigate the impact of climate and LULC change impact on stream flow of Guder catchment by using Soil and Water Assessment model (SWAT). The scenarios were designed in a way that LULC was changed while climate conditions remain constant; LULC was then held constant under a changing climate and combined effect of both. The result shows that, the combined impacts of climate change and LULC dynamics can be rather different from the effects that follow-on from LULC or climate change alone. Streamflow would be more sensitive to climate change than to the LULC changes scenario, even though changes in LULC have far-reaching influences on streamflow in the study region. A comprehensive strategy of low impact developments, smart growth, and open space is critical to handle future changes to streamflow systems.

scholarly journals Aspects Concerning the Impact of Climate Aridization on Forest Ecosystems (Case Study)

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 63-75
Author(s):  
Nedealcov Maria ◽  
Donica Ala ◽  
Brașoveanu Valeriu ◽  
Grigoraș Nicolae ◽  
Deomidova Cristina
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Ecosystems ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Aridity Index ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Climate Aridization ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Assessment activity and surveillance of the forests health, held at the global, regional and local level, has continuously developed, culminating in the current period with interdisciplinary and extensive scientific researches, that evaluate the effects of the main factors on forest ecosystems state, in particular, air pollution and climate change. Scientific researches have shown that among trees ecophysiological processes, forest life processes and meteorological parameters there are direct dependences, particularly in the case of trees supply with water during the growing period (May-July), with major influences for critical months (July and August), which have a decisive impact on growth, vitality and production of organic matter in forests. Dry years, from the beginning of the third millennium can lead to a decrease of mesophilic forests area (beech, sessile oak and penduculate oak), which will tend to retreat towards the center of the area (central Europe) in favor of thermophilic forests with pubescent oak. It was determined that a most significant negative impact of climate aridization will feel the forest ecosystems from Southern and central regions of country (conditioned by the mean air temperature (July-August), monthly rainfall (May-August), evapotranspiration and geographic latitude), and less - the Northern part of the country (Forestry Aridity Index calculated for 3 experimental stations revealed variations of this index between 7.8 - 8.3 - in the Central part of country, and 8.4 - 8.6 - for Southern part of country). At the same time the impact of climate change will determine the spatial and temporal dynamics of pests and pathogenic species. The phenomenon of climate aridization was expressed also through the impact of the Microsphaera alphitoides disease, intensity of “mildew” attack being based on the climatic conditions of the study region. Obtained data, for confirmation, were correlated with indications of bioindicators, present in the study region.

scholarly journals Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 239-253 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Lehtonen ◽  
A. Venäläinen ◽  
M. Kämäräinen ◽  
H. Peltola ◽  
H. Gregow
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Model Variability ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change on forest-fire activity in Finland with special emphasis on large-scale fires. In addition, we were particularly interested to examine the inter-model variability of the projected change of fire danger. For this purpose, we utilized fire statistics covering the period 1996–2014 and consisting of almost 20 000 forest fires, as well as daily meteorological data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model data were statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using the quantile-mapping method before performing the analysis. In examining the relationship between weather and fire danger, we applied the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) system. Our results suggest that the number of large forest fires may double or even triple during the present century. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to active and efficient fire suppression. However, the results reveal substantial inter-model variability in the rate of the projected increase of forest-fire danger, emphasizing the large uncertainty related to the climate change signal in fire activity. We moreover showed that the majority of large fires in Finland occur within a relatively short period in May and June due to human activities and that FWI correlates poorer with the fire activity during this time of year than later in summer when lightning is a more important cause of fires.

scholarly journals Agroforestry Suitability Mapping for the Northwest Provinces of Vietnam

Proceedings ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 142
Author(s):  
Quyet Manh Vu ◽  
Tri Dan Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Data ◽  
Soil Depth ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Potential Development ◽  
Land Cover Maps ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to assess the potential development of selected agroforestry options for three provinces in the Northwest of Vietnam. Available spatial data including Land use/land cover maps and forest inventory maps were used as the base maps in combination with supplementary data and field survey to determine the potential agroforestry areas. Soil types, soil depth, soil texture, elevation, slope, temperature and rainfall were used to evaluate the biophysical suitability of ten typical agroforestry options in the study region. For assessing the impact of climate change to agroforestry suitability in the future, temperature and precipitation data extracted from two climate changes scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5 in 2046–2065) were used. The results showed that the suitable areas for agroforestry development in Dien Bien, Sơn La and Yen Bai provinces were 267.74.01 ha, 405,597.96 ha; and 297,995.55 ha, respectively. Changes in temperature and precipitation by 2 climate change scenarios affected significantly to the suitability of Docynia indica + livestock grass, Teak + plum + coffee + grass and Plum + maize + livestock grass options. The map of agroforestry suitability can be served as a useful source in developing and expanding the area of agroforestry in the target provinces, and can be applied for other provinces in the same region in Vietnam.

Climate Change, Economic Growth and Growth Determinants: Insights From Vietnam’s Coastal South Central Region

2020 ◽  
pp. 002190962094034
Author(s):  
Hong Hiep Hoang ◽  
Cong Minh Huynh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Model ◽  
Central Region ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Generalized Least Squares ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
South Central ◽  
The Impact

Using the Feasible Generalized Least Squares econometric method, the paper analyzes the impact of climate change on economic growth in Vietnam’s coastal South Central region over the period of 2006–2015. The results indicate that, after controlling for the main determinants in the growth model, the climate change with various proxies has a significantly negative impact on provinces’ economic growth in the region. In particular, local institutions not only increase economic growth, but also reduce the negative impact of climate change on economic growth as well. These results suggest some policy implications aimed at boosting the process of transforming the economic growth model for the coastal region adapting to climate change. JEL codes: F21, F23, E22

scholarly journals Comparative Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Policies in Fuel Combustion Sector of Lithuania and Bulgaria

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 529
Author(s):  
Asta Mikalauskiene ◽  
Justas Štreimikis ◽  
Ignas Mikalauskas ◽  
Gintarė Stankūnienė ◽  
Rimantas Dapkus
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Emission Reduction ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Fuel Combustion ◽  
Comparative Assessment ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Ghg Emission ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Change Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Policies

The paper performed comparative assessment of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends and climate change mitigation policies in the fuel combustion sector of selected EU member states with similar economic development levels and historical pasts, and implementing main EU energy and climate change mitigation policies, having achieved different success in GHG emission reduction. The impact of climate change mitigation policies on GHG emission reduction was assessed based on analysis of countries’ reports to UNFCCC by identifying the key areas of GHG emission reduction, their GHG emission reduction potential, and the driving forces behind them. The study revealed that climate change mitigation policies that have been implemented so far in Bulgaria are less efficient than in Lithuania, as Bulgaria places priorities not on energy efficiency improvement and penetration of renewable energy sources, but on switching from coal to natural gas. The policy implications for strengthening GHG emissions reduction efforts are provided based on analysis conducted.

scholarly journals Future Impact of Climate Change on the Yield of Cocoa in Ondo State, Nigeria

2019 ◽  
pp. 467-476
Author(s):  
Femi S. Omotayo ◽  
Philip G. Oguntunde ◽  
Ayorinde A. Olufayo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
Ondo State ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Cocoa Yield

This study was carried to determine the trend of cocoa yield and climatic variables and assessment of the impact of climate change on the future yield of cocoa in Ondo State, Nigeria. Annual trend statistics for cocoa yield and climatic variables were analyzed for the state using Mann-Kendall test for trend and Sen’s slope estimates. Downscaled data from six Global Circulation Models (GCMs) were used to examine the impact of climate change on the future yield of cocoa in the study area. The results of trends analysis in Ondo State showed that yield decreased monotonically at the rate of 492.18 tonnes/yr (P<0.05). An increased significant trend was established in annual rainfall trend. While Maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and mean temperature all increased at the rate of 0.02/yr (P<0.001). The ensemble of all the GCMs projected a mid-term future decrease of about 9,334 tonnes/yr by 2050 and a long-term future decrease of 13,504 tonnes/yr of cocoa by 2100. The economic implication of these is that, if the projected change in the yield of cocoa as predicted by the ensemble of all the GCMs should hold for the future, it means that Ondo state may experience a loss of about $22,470,018.22 and $32,308,584.32 by the year 2050 and 2100 respectively according to the present price of the commodity in the world market. Measures are to be taken by the government and farmers to find a way of mitigating the impacts of climate change on the future yield of the cocoa study area. This research should be extended to other cocoa producing areas in Nigeria.

scholarly journals O sucesso da inculturação do telemóvel nas comunidades moçambicanas e a sua múltipla funcionalidade social

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 87
Author(s):  
Celestino Vaz Joanguete
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
New York ◽  
United Nations ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Mobile Technologies ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Policy And Practice ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
The Impact

A estrutura do trabalho é construída em três momentos: o primeiro  discute a empregabilidade no dispositivo móvel na monitoria de governação. Nesta abordagem a reflexão tráz à superfície a questão do uso das mensagens SMS na monitoria dos processos eleitorais. O segundo momento debruça sobre o telemóvel no processo comunicativo, no qual são enfatizados os últimos progressos tecnológicos das infraestruturas de comunicação; o terceiro momento descreve o impactos da "Economia Móvel" nos processos de desenvolvimento do negócio e transações comerciais, onde se destaca o impacto social dos serviços móveis de consulta, transferências bancárias e pagamentos de serviços.Palavras-chave: Telemóvel; comunicação; economia móvel. ABSTRACTThe structure of the work is built in two stages: The first discusses employability in the governance mobile monitoring device. In this approach to reflect back to the surface the issue of the use of SMS messages in the monitoring of electoral processes. The second phase focuses on the mobile phone in the communicative process in rural areas, which are emphasized in the latest technological advances in communications the impact  infrastructure; the third phase describes the phone incorporating  on business development processes and business transactions, with the focus on consultation with PayPal and services payments.Key-words: Mobile; Communication; Mobile Economy. RESUMENLa estructura de la obra se construye en tres etapas: La primera analiza la empleabilidad en el monitoreo de la gobernabilidad móvil. En este enfoque, la reflexión trae a la superficie la cuestión del uso de mensajes SMS en el seguimiento de los procesos electorales. La segunda fase se centra en el teléfono móvil en el proceso comunicativo, que  enfatiza en los últimos avances tecnológicos en infraestructura de comunicaciones; la tercera fase se describen los impactos de la "Economía Móvil" en el desarrollo de procesos de negocio y las transacciones comerciales, lo que pone de relievo el impacto social de los servicios de consulta móvil, transferencias bancarias y los servicios de pagos.Palabras claves: Móvil; Comunicación; Economia Móvil. ReferênciasAssociação Empresarial de Comunicações de Portugal. Análise de Mercado de Moçambique.  Lisboa: Associação Empresarial de Comunicações de Portugal (ACIST), 2015, p.1-52. Disponível em: http://www.acist.pt/publicacoes/estudos/dados_sobre_mocambique_vopen.pdf.   Acessado em: 28.set.15.GSMA. The Mobile Economy. United Kingdom: GSMA, 2015, p. 1-82.  Disponível em: http://www.gsmamobileeconomy.com/GSMA_Global_Mobile_Economy_Report_2015.pdf.  Acessado em: 28.set.2015.HAMELINK, Cee. A política de comunicação global, Revista Logos, n. 28: Globalização e comunicação internacional, Rio de Janeiro, ano 15, 2008, pp. 10-25.  HILL, Jill. Regulatory Models for broadcasting in Africa.  In: Broadcasting policy and practice in Africa. London: Article 19, 2003, p. 1-233.  Disponível em:  http://www.article19.org/data/files/pdfs/publications/africa-broadcasting-policy.pdf.  Acessado em: 20.mar.2013.LEVINGSTON, Steven. A Evolução dos Sistemas de Informação em África: Um Caminho para a Segurança e a Estabilidade. Washington, D.C.: Centro de Estudos Estratégicos de África, 2011, p. 1-70. Disponível em: http://africacenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/ARP_2_POR.pdf. Acessado em: 30.jan.2012.MACAUHUB. Movitel, Terceiro operador de telefonia móvel de Moçambique  iniciou actividades. Macau: Macauhub, 2015.  Disponível em: http://www.macauhub.com.mo/pt/2012/05/16/movitel-terceiro-operador-de-telefonia-movel-de-mocambique-iniciou-actividade/. Acessado em: 28.set.2015.PNUD. Mobile Technologies and Empowerment: Enhancing human development through participation and innovation. New York, NY: United Nations Development Programme, 2012, p. 1-58.   Disponível em: http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/librarypage/democratic-governance/access_to_informationande-governance/mobiletechnologiesprimer.html. Acessado em: 02.mai.2014.UNESCO. Turning on Mobile Learning: Illustrative Initiatives and Policy Implications in Africa and Middle East. Paris: United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, 2012, p. 1-41. Disponível em: http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0021/002163/216359e.pdf. Acessado em: 17.jun.2014.WORLD BANK. Cities and Climate Change. Washington, D.C.: The Word Bank, 2015. Disponível em: http://www.worldbank.org/projects/P123201/coastal-cities-climate-change?lang=en. Acessado em: 02.out.2015. Disponível em:Url: http://opendepot.org/2718/ Abrir em (para melhor visualização em dispositivos móveis - Formato Flipbooks):Issuu / Calameo

Controlled Evaluation of Rural Regional Perinatal Care: Developmental and Neurologic Outcomes at 1 Year

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1986 ◽  
Vol 77 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-195 ◽  
Author(s):  
Earl Siegel ◽  
Dennis Gillings ◽  
Suzann Campbell ◽  
Priscilla Guild
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Physical Health ◽  
Control Region ◽  
Professional Education ◽  
Perinatal Care ◽  
Newborn Infants ◽  
Receptive Language ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Study Region ◽  
The Impact

The effectiveness of a rural regionalized perinatal care (RPC) program was evaluated by a controlled, population-based design. The RPC program, begun in a carefully selected study region in July 1975, evolved into a system of care which included the following major components: identification of high-risk pregnancies and high-risk newborn infants; obstetric and newborn consultation and referral services between Level I, II, and III centers; professional education for physicians, nurses, and other health professionals; and nutrition and social work consultation. Substantial resources were made available from 1975 to 1980 to implement this "total package" of RPC. A matched, control region was identified which, except for the RPC program, was as comparable as possible to the study region. It was hypothesized that the RPC intervention would have the following effects when the study region was compared with the control region: reduction in fetal and neonatal mortality, no increase in postneonatal mortality, and reduction in obstetric and newborn morbidity. These findings were reported previously. This paper presents results of hypothesized reductions in adverse developmental, neurologic, maternal-infant attachment, and selected physical health outcomes. A sample of 447 infants was assessed by an extensive battery of instruments at 1 year, adjusted for gestational age. The most notable findings were mothers' reports of receptive language development and observations of maternal attachment behaviors that significantly favored the study region. No significant differences between study and control regions were observed for Bayley Mental and Motor Scores, abnormal neurologic signs, and the physical health measures. The impact of rural RPC in North Carolina on the 1-year outcomes is discussed and policy implications are presented.

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