scholarly journals Four Global Catastrophic Risks – A Personal View

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russell Blong
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Personal View ◽  
Average Return ◽  
Catastrophic Risks ◽  
Near Future

Global catastrophic risks (GCRs) affect a larger than hemispheric area and produce death tolls of many millions and/or economic losses greater than several trillion USD. Here I explore the biophysical, social-economic, demographic and cultural strands of four global catastrophic risks – sea level rise, a VEI 7 eruption, a pandemic, and a geomagnetic storm – one human-exacerbated at the least, one geological, one biological in large part, and one from space. Durations of these biophysical events range from a day or two to more than 100 years and the hazards associated range from none to numerous. Each of the risks has an average return period of no more than a few hundred years and lie within a range where many regulators ordinarily demand efforts in the case of less extreme events at enhancing resilience. Losses produced by GCRs and other natural hazards are usually assessed in terms of human mortality or dollars but many less tangible losses are at least as significant. Despite the varying durations, biophysical characteristics, and the wide array of potential consequences, the aftermath at global (and at more granular scales) can be summarised by one of four potential futures. While this assessment considers the present and the near future (the Anthropocene), much of this appraisal applies also to global catastrophic risks in the Early Holocene.

scholarly journals Projection of Hydro-Climatic Extreme Events under Climate Change in Yom and Nan River Basins, Thailand

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 665
Author(s):  
Chanchai Petpongpan ◽  
Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit ◽  
Supattra Visessri ◽  
Duangrudee Kositgittiwong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Floods ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future

Due to a continuous increase in global temperature, the climate has been changing without sign of alleviation. An increase in the air temperature has caused changes in the hydrologic cycle, which have been followed by several emergencies of natural extreme events around the world. Thailand is one of the countries that has incurred a huge loss in assets and lives from the extreme flood and drought events, especially in the northern part. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess the hydrological regime in the Yom and Nan River basins, affected by climate change as well as the possibility of extreme floods and droughts. The hydrological processes of the study areas were generated via the physically-based hydrological model, namely the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The projected climate conditions were dependent on the outputs of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 between 2021 and 2095. Results show that the average air temperature, annual rainfall, and annual runoff will be significantly increased in the intermediate future (2046–2070) onwards, especially under RCP 8.5. According to the Flow Duration Curve and return period of peak discharge, there are fluctuating trends in the occurrence of extreme floods and drought events under RCP 2.6 from the future (2021–2045) to the far future (2071–2095). However, under RCP 8.5, the extreme flood and drought events seem to be more severe. The probability of extreme flood remains constant from the reference period to the near future, then rises dramatically in the intermediate and the far future. The intensity of extreme droughts will be increased in the near future and decreased in the intermediate future due to high annual rainfall, then tending to have an upward trend in the far future.

scholarly journals Future Changes in Simulated Evapotranspiration across Continental Africa Based on CMIP6 CNRM-CM6

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (13) ◽  
pp. 6760
Author(s):  
Isaac Kwesi Nooni ◽  
Daniel Fiifi T. Hagan ◽  
Guojie Wang ◽  
Waheed Ullah ◽  
Jiao Lu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
Model Ensembles ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Near Future

The main goal of this study was to assess the interannual variations and spatial patterns of projected changes in simulated evapotranspiration (ET) in the 21st century over continental Africa based on the latest Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) provided by the France Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM-CM) model in the Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) framework. The projected spatial and temporal changes were computed for three time slices: 2020–2039 (near future), 2040–2069 (mid-century), and 2080–2099 (end-of-the-century), relative to the baseline period (1995–2014). The results show that the spatial pattern of the projected ET was not uniform and varied across the climate region and under the SSP-RCPs scenarios. Although the trends varied, they were statistically significant for all SSP-RCPs. The SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0 projected higher ET seasonality than SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5. In general, we suggest the need for modelers and forecasters to pay more attention to changes in the simulated ET and their impact on extreme events. The findings provide useful information for water resources managers to develop specific measures to mitigate extreme events in the regions most affected by possible changes in the region’s climate. However, readers are advised to treat the results with caution as they are based on a single GCM model. Further research on multi-model ensembles (as more models’ outputs become available) and possible key drivers may provide additional information on CMIP6 ET projections in the region.

scholarly journals Twenty-first century response of Petermann Glacier, northwest Greenland to ice shelf loss

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Emily A. Hill ◽  
G. Hilmar Gudmundsson ◽  
J. Rachel Carr ◽  
Chris R. Stokes ◽  
Helen M. King
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
First Century ◽  
Ice Shelf ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Grounding Line ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Global Mean ◽  
Large Sections

Abstract Ice shelves restrain flow from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Climate-ocean warming could force thinning or collapse of floating ice shelves and subsequently accelerate flow, increase ice discharge and raise global mean sea levels. Petermann Glacier (PG), northwest Greenland, recently lost large sections of its ice shelf, but its response to total ice shelf loss in the future remains uncertain. Here, we use the ice flow model Úa to assess the sensitivity of PG to changes in ice shelf extent, and to estimate the resultant loss of grounded ice and contribution to sea level rise. Our results have shown that under several scenarios of ice shelf thinning and retreat, removal of the shelf will not contribute substantially to global mean sea level (<1 mm). We hypothesize that grounded ice loss was limited by the stabilization of the grounding line at a topographic high ~12 km inland of its current grounding line position. Further inland, the likelihood of a narrow fjord that slopes seawards suggests that PG is likely to remain insensitive to terminus changes in the near future.

Investigating the effects of climate change on structural resistance and actions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andre Orcesi ◽  
Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga ◽  
Olga Markogiannaki ◽  
Yue Li ◽  
Franck Schoefs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Performance Indicator ◽  
Design Life ◽  
Structural Durability ◽  
Structural Resistance ◽  
Physical And Chemical ◽  
Life Function

<p>One major issue when considering the effects of climate change is to understand, qualify and quantify how natural hazards and the changing climate will likely impact infrastructure assets and services as it strongly depends on current and future climate variability, location, asset design life, function and condition. So far, there is no well-defined and agreed performance indicator that isolates the effects of climate change for structures. Rather, one can mention some key considerations on how climate change may produce changes of vulnerability due to physical and chemical actions affecting structural durability or changes of the exposure in terms of intensity/frequency of extreme events. This paper considers these two aspects and associated challenges, considering some recent activities of members of the IABSE TG6.1.</p>

scholarly journals Multiperspective analysis of erosion tolerance

2003 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 409-416 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerd Sparovek ◽  
Isabella Clerici De Maria
Keyword(s):  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Soil Loss ◽  
Multidisciplinary Approach ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Erosion Control ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Environmental Sciences ◽  
Soil Loss Tolerance ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Effective Integration

Erosion tolerance is the most multidisciplinary field of soil erosion research. Scientists have shown lack in ability to adequately analyze the huge list of variables that influence soil loss tolerance definitions. For these the perspectives of erosion made by farmers, environmentalists, society and politicians have to be considered simultaneously. Partial and biased definitions of erosion tolerance may explain not only the polemic nature of the currently suggested values but also, in part, the nonadoption of the desired levels of erosion control. To move towards a solution, considerable changes would have to occur on how this topic is investigated, especially among scientists, who would have to change methods and strategies and extend the perspective of research out of the boundaries of the physical processes and the frontiers of the academy. A more effective integration and communication with the society and farmers, to learn about their perspective of erosion and a multidisciplinary approach, integrating soil, social, economic and environmental sciences are essential for improved erosion tolerance definitions. In the opinion of the authors, soil erosion research is not moving in this direction and a better understanding of erosion tolerance is not to be expected in the near future.

scholarly journals The role of soils in the regulation of hazards and extreme events

2021 ◽  
Vol 376 (1834) ◽  
pp. 20200178
Author(s):  
P. M. Saco ◽  
K. R. McDonough ◽  
J. F. Rodriguez ◽  
J. Rivera-Zayas ◽  
S. G. Sandi
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Dust Storms ◽  
Ecological Impacts ◽  
World Population ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Ecosystem Component

The frequency and intensity of natural hazards and extreme events has increased throughout the last century, resulting in adverse socioeconomic and ecological impacts worldwide. Key factors driving this increase include climate change, the growing world population, anthropogenic activities and ecosystem degradation. One ecologically focused approach that has shown potential towards the mitigation of these hazard events is the concept of nature's contributions to people (or NCP), which focuses on enhancing the material and non-material benefits of an ecosystem to reduce hazard vulnerability and enhance overall human well-being. Soils, in particular, have been identified as a key ecosystem component that may offer critical hazard regulating functionality. Thus, this review investigates the modulating role of soils in the regulation of natural hazards and extreme events, with a focus on floods, droughts, landslides and sand/dust storms, within the context of NCP. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The role of soils in delivering Nature's Contributions to People’.

scholarly journals Climate change in the recent geological past and the near future. Predicting its impacts: a Review

2019 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
pp. 260
Author(s):  
Constantinos Perisoratis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Climatic Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Late Quaternary ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Geological Past ◽  
Near Future

The climate changes are necessarily related to the increase of the Earth’s temperature, resulting in a sea level rise. Such continuous events, were taking place with minor and greater intensity, during the alternation of warm and cool periods in the Earth during the Late Quaternary and the Holocene periods. However, a particularly significant awareness has taken place in the scientific community, and consequently in the greater public, in the last decades: that a climatic change will take place soon, or it is on-going, and that therefore it is important to undertake drastic actions. However, such a climatic change has not been recorded yet, and hence the necessary actions are not required, for the time being.

scholarly journals METHODS TO CALCULATE THE SOCIAL-ECONOMIC DAMAGE CAUSED BY FLOODS

2020 ◽  
pp. 5-11
Author(s):  
Givi Gavardashvili ◽  
◽  
Martin Vartanov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Economic ◽  
Dam Failure ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Earth Dams ◽  
Hydraulic Facility ◽  
Industrial Facilities ◽  
High Rise ◽  
Type Wave ◽  
The Social

The volumes of the water reservoirs flooded with high-rise hydrotechnical facilities, including high-rise earth dams, often range from several hundreds of millions to tens of billions of cubic meters and even more. The present paper describes the methodology to calculate the social-economic losses for the facilities flooded and destroyed by a tsunami-type wave in case of a possible high-rise hydraulic facility accident.The social-economic damage caused by a dam failure can be viewed as a sum of dam-age caused by human victim, destruction of hydraulic and industrial facilities and agricul-ture, pond economy, forestry and communal services.

scholarly journals Measurements of firn density in the lower accumulation area of the Greenland ice sheet: EPOCH 1992

1993 ◽  
Vol 159 ◽  
pp. 62-65
Author(s):  
R.J Braithwaite ◽  
M Laternser
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
European Community ◽  
Present Note ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Field Work ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Work Done ◽  
European Programme

Groups from several countries are studying Greenland glaciers in connection with the 'greenhouse effect' (Braithwaite et al., 1992a). In particular, GGU is the Danish partner in a IO-nation two-year project (March 1991 to February 1993) on causes and effects of sea level changes which is funded by the European Community through the European Programme on Climatology and Natural Hazards (EPOCH). As its contribution to EPOCH, GGU is studying the effects of meltwater refreezing in the lower accumulation area of the Greenland ice sheet which may reduce, or at least delay, the expected sea level rise under warmer climate. Work done under EPOCH in 1991 was described by Braithwaite et al. (1992b) while the present note describes the most important results of the 1992 field work.

Features and Current Damaged Situation of Hui-Style Architecture

2013 ◽  
Vol 838-841 ◽  
pp. 2905-2909
Author(s):  
Xue Yu Xiong ◽  
Zhao Yang Su
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Sound Insulation ◽  
High Humidity ◽  
Deep Well ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Wood Carving ◽  
Stone Carving ◽  
White Wall ◽  
Reinforcement Measures ◽  
Near Future

As the key element of Huizhou culture, Hui-style architecture is one of the masterpieces of Chinese ancient architectures. The Hui-style architecture was highly praised by architecture masters both at home and abroad because of its phenotypic features, such as black tiles, white wall, and horse-like wall; its decoration features, such as tile carving, wood carving, stone carving; and its living features, such as high house, deep well, large lobby. Since most of the Hui-style architectures were built long time ago, had not been repaired for many years, as well as influenced by different kinds of natural hazards, the Hui-style architectures were decayed, eaten by worms, or damaged by fire to different degree. Most of these architectures could not meet the living requirements nowadays with faint light, high humidity, poor sound insulation, badly cracks and corrosion of all kinds of wood components; and needed to be repaired and reinforced badly. Based on this situation, the author believes that the Hui-style architecture would be in its original appearance in front of the word in the near future if the scientific research and proper reinforcement measures were adopted for the reinforcement of the Hui-style architectures.

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