scholarly journals Breeding Phenology of Red-Shouldered Hawks (Buteo lineatus) Is Related to Snow Cover and Air Temperature During the Pre-Laying Period

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheryl R. Dykstra ◽  
Jeffrey L. Hays ◽  
Melinda M. Simon ◽  
Ann R. Wegman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Egg Laying ◽  
Laying Date ◽  
Hatching Date ◽  
Breeding Phenology

Global climate change has advanced the breeding phenology of many avian species. However, raptors’ breeding phenologies may not respond in the same way to the factors that influence passerine breeding dates. We studied reproduction of suburban and rural Red-shouldered Hawks (Buteo lineatus) in southern Ohio, United States, from 1997 to 2020. Mean hatching dates for 786 broods were 24 April [Julian day: 114.1 ± 0.3 d (SE)] for suburban birds and 25 April (Julian day: 114.5 ± 0.4) for rural birds. Egg-laying date averages approximately 33 days before hatching date, or about the third week of March. We used mixed models to test which factors influenced nestling hatching dates from 1997 to 2020. The best model included year, days of snow cover during the pre-laying period (February–March), and mean March temperature, with days of snow cover having the largest effect. Hatching date (in Julian days) was positively related to snow cover and negatively related to air temperature, i.e., young hatched earlier in years with fewer days of snow cover and in warmer years). Young also hatched slightly later as the study progressed. Overall, neither mean hatching date nor any of the weather variables showed a significant trend over the course of the study. Previously published reports indicate that many raptor species do not exhibit advancing hatching dates, and breeding phenologies often reflect local weather conditions. The complexity and diversity of raptor responses to climate change underscore the importance of long-term studies of raptors at multiple locations.

scholarly journals The reaction of the environment to climate change in the Northern latitudes (on the example of the taiga zone of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug-Yugra)

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vera Petrovna Kuznetsova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Natural Environment ◽  
Taiga Zone ◽  
Northern Latitudes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Khanty Mansi Autonomous

The article presents results of investigation the impact of modern climate change on the environment in the taiga zone of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug-Ugra. Long-term indicators of average annual air temperature and the duration of the occurrence of stable snow cover are given according to some meteorological stations in the region. The response of the natural environment is determined based on the analysis of phenological processes under the conditions of climate change in the studied territory. Hazardous hydrometeorological phenomena observed on the territory in Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug-Ugra are presented.

scholarly journals GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: CAUSES OF OCCURRENCE AND CONSEQUENCES FOR AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN THE SOUTHERN STEPPE

2019 ◽  
pp. 88-98
Author(s):  
S. P. Goloborodko ◽  
O. M. Dymov
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
World Ocean ◽  
Simultaneous Increase

Relevance of the research. If greenhouse gases in the XXI century enter the atmosphere in the same volume as now, the increase in the average temperature on the planet will reach 2–4°C, and therefore the threat of extinction of up to 20–30% of species of animals and plants in existing biocenosis is not excluded. At the same time, the water level in the world ocean will rise, which during the XX century became higher by 17 cm, that is, more than for the previous 2000 years. Simultaneously with the increase in the average monthly air temperature in the conditions of natural moisturizing (without irrigation) of the southern Steppe subzone of Ukraine in recent years, insufficient precipitation has been recorded, especially in July, August and September that, according to various estimates, is typical for the semi-desert and desert. As a result, the aridity of the climate has increased and the frequency of droughts has risen as well. If for the period of 400 years, in the XI–XIV centuries droughts occurred only 8 times, in the XVII–XVIII – 17, in the XIX – 20, in the XX century the number of them increased to 30. The purpose of the article is to reveal the causes of global climate change on the planet and its impact on agricultural production of the southern Steppe subzone that resulted in increasing the coefficient of moisture, evaporation and moisture deficit. Research methods. The study was carried out using long-term meteorological observations of Kherson meteorological station. Scientific research was based on the complex application of statistical, monographic, abstract-logical methods and system analysis. Research results. The analysis of the main causes of global and regional climate change was conducted. Four models of the bases of climate change on the planet Earth were made. The influence of climate change on the formation of crops yield in the subzone of the southern Steppe was specified. The amount of precipitation fell during the growing period of 2011–2017 in medium dry and dry years shows that, compared to the long-term average precipitation, it was significantly lower and amounted to 47.2–63.6 mm. In average for the 65 years (1945–2010) evaporation was 722.0 mm, and the deficit of moisture, respectively 487.4 mm. In wet years, the volatility does not exceed 608.6 mm, and the deficit of moisture was made up of 243.6 mm. In average as to water supply years the evaporation increased up to 645.7–746.3 mm and the deficit of moisture increased up to 406.7–507.7 mm. In mid-dry and dry years, evaporation increased up to 769.8–934.5 mm, and the deficit of moisture – up to 580.9–791.0 mm. Conclusions. The decrease in precipitation, especially in dry years, compared to average annual indicators, was recorded in spring period as 24–27% and in autumn – as 62–65%, along with a simultaneous increase in air temperature in those periods as 2.7 and 2.8°C respectively. In general, during the vegetation period the increase in evaporation was 30–31% and the deficit of moisture was 53–55% that resulted in low yields of crops. The main way to overcome the negative impact of global climate change on the agricultural production of the southern Steppe subzone is the effective use and further extending the areas of actual irrigation, that will ensure stable high yields and food security of the state.

scholarly journals Interactive influences of fluctuations of main food resources and climate change on long-term population decline of Tengmalm’s owls in the boreal forest

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marek Kouba ◽  
Luděk Bartoš ◽  
Jitka Bartošová ◽  
Kari Hongisto ◽  
Erkki Korpimäki
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Reproductive Success ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Egg Laying ◽  
Laying Date ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Aegolius Funereus ◽  
Increasing Temperature ◽  
Tengmalm's Owl

AbstractRecent wildlife population declines are usually attributed to multiple sources such as global climate change and habitat loss and degradation inducing decreased food supply. However, interactive effects of fluctuations in abundance of main foods and weather conditions on population densities and reproductive success have been studied rarely. We analysed long-term (1973–2018) data on Tengmalm’s owl (Aegolius funereus) and the influence of prey abundance and weather on breeding densities and reproductive success in western Finland. We found that fledgling production per breeding attempt declined and laying date of the owl population delayed during the period between 1973 and 2018. The breeding density of the owl population decreased with increasing temperature in winter (October–March), fledgling production increased with increasing temperature and precipitation in spring (April–June), whereas the initiation of egg-laying was delayed with increasing depth of snow cover in late winter (January–March). The decreasing trend of fledgling production, which was mainly due to starvation of offspring, was an important factor contributing to the long-term decline of the Tengmalm’s owl study population. Milder and more humid spring and early summer temperatures due to global warming were not able to compensate for lowered offspring production of owls. The main reason for low productivity is probably loss and degradation of mature and old-growth forests due to clear-felling which results in loss of coverage of prime habitat for main (bank voles) and alternative foods (small birds) of owls inducing lack of food, and refuges against predators of Tengmalm’s owls. This interpretation was also supported by the delayed start of egg-laying during the study period although ambient temperatures increased prior to and during the egg-laying period.

scholarly journals The dormant period of the apple tree and its change under the influence of destabilization of weather conditions

2021 ◽  
Vol 37 ◽  
pp. 00055
Author(s):  
Elena Tsukanova ◽  
Evgeny Tkachev
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Photosynthetic Activity ◽  
Apple Tree ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Dynamic Reaction ◽  
Dormant Period ◽  
Non Invasive ◽  
Fluorescence Of Chlorophyll A

The article presents an analysis of the features of weather conditions in 2020 in the Central Black Earth Region. It determines main deviations from the average long-term values of air temperature and humidity, as well as the distribution of precipitation. It shows the influence of climate change in recent decades, the main of which is the destabilization of the water-temperature regime, on the passage of phenophases in the development of fruit plants, including the dormant period. The article studies various methods of determining the dynamic reaction of the photo-system of apple-tree plants of the varieties Lobo, Zhigulevskoe, Melba, Antonovka, Hani Crisp, Ligol on the stock 62-396 deep rest by non-invasive methods based on the analysis of photosynthetic activity and the intensity of photosynthesis of chlorophyll-containing tissues. It shows the prospects of non-invasive registration of photosynthetic activity of tissues of annual branches for monitoring the period of deep dormancy. It was found that the registration of real parameters of changes in the index of photosynthetic activity during the transition to deep dormancy is possible only in the field. Cut branches of plants, placed in favorable laboratory conditions, show smoothed parameters of fluctuations in the level of fluorescence of chlorophyll-a in assimilation tissues, depending on changes in the functional state of the plant organism.

On Climate Change Risks of Long-Term Socio-Economic Development in Russia

2019 ◽  
pp. 79-95
Author(s):  
N.E. Terentiev
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Technological Innovation ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Risk ◽  
Climate Change Risks ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Management Policies

Based on the latest data, paper investigates the dynamics of global climate change and its impact on economic growth in the long-term. The notion of climate risk is considered. The main directions of climate risk management policies are analyzed aimed, first, at reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions through technological innovation and structural economic shifts; secondly, at adaptation of population, territories and economic complexes to the irreparable effects of climate change. The problem of taking into account the phenomenon of climate change in the state economic policy is put in the context of the most urgent tasks of intensification of long-term socio-economic development and parrying strategic challenges to the development of Russia.

scholarly journals Surface Water Temperature Predictions at a Mid-Latitude Reservoir under Long-Term Climate Change Impacts Using a Deep Neural Network Coupled with a Transfer Learning Approach

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1109
Author(s):  
Nobuaki Kimura ◽  
Kei Ishida ◽  
Daichi Baba
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Temperature ◽  
Transfer Learning ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Surface Water Temperature

Long-term climate change may strongly affect the aquatic environment in mid-latitude water resources. In particular, it can be demonstrated that temporal variations in surface water temperature in a reservoir have strong responses to air temperature. We adopted deep neural networks (DNNs) to understand the long-term relationships between air temperature and surface water temperature, because DNNs can easily deal with nonlinear data, including uncertainties, that are obtained in complicated climate and aquatic systems. In general, DNNs cannot appropriately predict unexperienced data (i.e., out-of-range training data), such as future water temperature. To improve this limitation, our idea is to introduce a transfer learning (TL) approach. The observed data were used to train a DNN-based model. Continuous data (i.e., air temperature) ranging over 150 years to pre-training to climate change, which were obtained from climate models and include a downscaling model, were used to predict past and future surface water temperatures in the reservoir. The results showed that the DNN-based model with the TL approach was able to approximately predict based on the difference between past and future air temperatures. The model suggested that the occurrences in the highest water temperature increased, and the occurrences in the lowest water temperature decreased in the future predictions.

Does climate change affect the chronobiological trends in occurrence of acute coronary syndromes?

2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
L Kuzma ◽  
A Kurasz ◽  
M Niwinska ◽  
EJ Dabrowski ◽  
M Swieczkowski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Acute Coronary Syndromes ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Funding Sources ◽  
Relative Risks ◽  
Coronary Syndromes ◽  
Atmospheric Changes

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background Acute coronary syndromes (ACS) are the leading cause of death all over the world, in the last years chronobiology of their occurrence has been changing. Purpose The aim of this study was to assess the influence of climate change on hospital admissions due to ACS. Methods Medical records of 10,529 patients hospitalized for ACS in 2008–2017 were examined. Weather conditions data were obtained from the Institute of Meteorology. Results Among the patients, 3537 (33.6%) were hospitalized for STEMI, 3947 (37.5%) for NSTEMI, and 3045 (28.9%) for UA. The highest seasonal mean for ACS was recorded in spring (N = 2782, mean = 2.52, SD = 1.7; OR 1.07; 95% CI 1.0-1.2; P = 0.049) and it was a season with the highest temperature changes day to day (Δ temp.=11.7). On the other hand, every 10ºC change in temperature was associated with an increased admission due to ACS by 13% (RR 1.13; 95% CI 1.04-1.3; P = 0.008). Analysis of weekly changes showed that the highest frequency of ACS occurred on Thursday (N = 1703, mean = 2.7, SD = 1.9; OR 1.16; 95% CI 1.0-1.23; P = 0.004), in STEMI subgroup it was Monday (N = 592, mean = 0.9, SD = 1.6, OR 1.2; 95% CI 1.1-1.4; P = 0.002). Sunday was associated with decreased admissions due to all types of ACS (N = 1098, mean = 1.7, SD = 1.4; OR 0.69; 95% CI 0.6-0.8, P < 0.001). In the second half of the study period (2013-2018) the relative risks of hospital admissions due to ACS were 1.043 (95%CI: 1.009-1.079, P = 0.014, lag 0) and 0.957 (95%CI: 0.925-0.990, P = 0.010, lag 1) for each 10ºC decrease in temperature; 1.049 (95% CI: 1.015-1.084, P = 0.004, lag 0) and 1.045 (95%CI: 1.011-1.080, P = 0.008, lag 1) for each 10 hPa decrease in atmospheric pressure and 1.180 (95% CI: 1.078-1.324, P = 0.007, lag 0) for every 10ºC change in temperature. For the first half of the study the risk was significantly lower. Conclusion We observed a shift in the seasonal peak of ACS occurrence from winter to spring which may be related to temperature fluctuation associated with climate change in this season. The lowest frequency of ACS took place on weekends. Atmospheric changes had a much more pronounced effect on admissions due to ACS in the second half of the analyzed period, which is in line with the dynamics of global climate change.

scholarly journals Phenology of two interdependent traits in migratory birds in response to climate change

2015 ◽  
Vol 282 (1807) ◽  
pp. 20150288 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadiah Pardede Kristensen ◽  
Jacob Johansson ◽  
Jörgen Ripa ◽  
Niclas Jonzén
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Resource Availability ◽  
Migratory Birds ◽  
Egg Laying ◽  
The Other ◽  
Sufficient Evidence ◽  
Hatching Date ◽  
Arrival Date ◽  
Body Of Knowledge ◽  
Asynchronous Hatching

In migratory birds, arrival date and hatching date are two key phenological markers that have responded to global warming. A body of knowledge exists relating these traits to evolutionary pressures. In this study, we formalize this knowledge into general mathematical assumptions, and use them in an ecoevolutionary model. In contrast to previous models, this study novelty accounts for both traits—arrival date and hatching date—and the interdependence between them, revealing when one, the other or both will respond to climate. For all models sharing the assumptions, the following phenological responses will occur. First, if the nestling-prey peak is late enough, hatching is synchronous with, and arrival date evolves independently of, prey phenology. Second, when resource availability constrains the length of the pre-laying period, hatching is adaptively asynchronous with prey phenology. Predictions for both traits compare well with empirical observations. In response to advancing prey phenology, arrival date may advance, remain unchanged, or even become delayed; the latter occurring when egg-laying resources are only available relatively late in the season. The model shows that asynchronous hatching and unresponsive arrival date are not sufficient evidence that phenological adaptation is constrained. The work provides a framework for exploring microevolution of interdependent phenological traits.

scholarly journals Testing Farmers’ Perception of Climate Variability: A Case Study from Kirtipur of Kathmandu Valley

2012 ◽  
pp. 30-34
Author(s):  
Jiban Mani Poudel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Global Perspective ◽  
Kathmandu Valley ◽  
Climatic Fluctuations ◽  
Climate Fluctuations ◽  
Global And Local

In the 21st century, global climate change has become a public and political discourse. However, there is still a wide gap between global and local perspectives. The global perspective focuses on climate fluctuations that affect the larger region; and their analysis is based on long-term records over centuries and millennium. By comparison, local peoples’ perspectives vary locally, and local analyses are limited to a few days, years, decades and generations only. This paper examines how farmers in Kirtipur of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, understand climate variability in their surroundings. The researcher has used a cognized model to understand farmers’ perception on weather fluctuations and climate change. The researcher has documented several eyewitness accounts of farmers about weather fluctuations which they have been observing in a lifetime. The researcher has also used rainfall data from 1970-2009 to test the accuracy of perceptions. Unlike meteorological analyses, farmers recall and their understanding of climatic variability by weather-crop interaction, and events associating with climatic fluctuations and perceptions are shaped by both physical visibility and cultural frame or belief system.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/hn.v11i1.7200 Hydro Nepal Special Issue: Conference Proceedings 2012 pp.30-34

scholarly journals Seasonal activity of Dermacentor reticulatus ticks in the era of progressive climate change in eastern Poland

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zbigniew Zając ◽  
Joanna Kulisz ◽  
Aneta Woźniak ◽  
Katarzyna Bartosik ◽  
Adil Khan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Dermacentor Reticulatus ◽  
Seasonal Activity ◽  
Saturation Deficit ◽  
Annual Basis ◽  
Questing Ticks ◽  
The Mean

AbstractDermacentor reticulatus ticks are one of the most important vectors and reservoirs of tick-borne pathogens in Europe. Changes in the abundance and range of this species have been observed in the last decade and these ticks are collected in areas previously considered tick-free. This may be influenced by progressive climate change. Eastern Poland is an area where the local population of D. reticulatus is one of the most numerous among those described so far. At the same time, the region is characterized by a significant increase in the mean air temperature in recent years (by 1.81 °C in 2020) and a decrease in the average number of days with snow cover (by 64 days in 2020) and in the number of days with frost (by 20 days in 2020) on an annual basis compared to the long-term average. The aim of our research was to investigate the rhythms of seasonal activity and the population size of D. reticulatus in the era of progressive climate change. To this end, questing ticks were collected in 2017–2020. Next, the weather conditions in the years of observation were analyzed and compared with multi-year data covering 30 years preceding the study. The research results show that, in eastern Poland, there is a stable population of D. reticulatus with the peak of activity in spring or autumn (up to a maximum of 359 individuals within 30 min of collection) depending on the year of observation. Ticks of this species may also be active in winter months. The activity of D. reticulatus is influenced by a saturation deficit.

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