scholarly journals Empowering Compartmental Modeling With Mobility and Shelter-in-Place Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Somayeh Bakhtiari Ramezani ◽  
Shahram Rahimi ◽  
Amin Amirlatifi ◽  
Matthew Hudnall ◽  
Jeremy Pate ◽  
...  

A model that is capable of handling the non-linear trend of COVID-19 throughout the US and evaluate different effects of interstate/intrastate mobility measures can help decision-makers adjust guidelines and state-wide mandates to contain the pandemic's spread. The abundance of cellular-based data has made it possible to study many aspects of users' mobility, including their travel, contact, and dwell patterns. This study uses a compartmental metapopulation model to present a correlation between the contact and mobility indices and the likelihood of being susceptible to infection. We studied the effect of travel from other states on overall infections in a destination state and observed a strong inverse correlation of 0.98 between the contact index and social awareness compartment, i.e., individuals who are no longer susceptible to infection. The shelter-in-place what-if analysis for travelers from other states on the course of infection in the destination state showed a possible reduction of over 22% in the total number of infections and death if travelers sheltered in place for 5–7 days.

eLife ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arturo Casadevall ◽  
Quigly Dragotakes ◽  
Patrick W Johnson ◽  
Jonathon W Senefeld ◽  
Stephen A Klassen ◽  
...  

Background. The US Food and Drug Administration authorized Convalescent Plasma (CCP) therapy for hospitalized COVID-19 patients via the Expanded Access Program (EAP) and the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA), leading to use in about 500,000 patients during the first year of the pandemic for the US.Methods. We tracked the number of CCP units dispensed to hospitals by blood banking organizations and correlated that usage with hospital admission and mortality data.Results. CCP usage per admission peaked in Fall 2020, with more than 40% of inpatients estimated to have received CCP between late September and early November 2020. However, after randomized controlled trials failed to show a reduction in mortality, CCP usage per admission declined steadily to a nadir of less than 10% in March 2021. We found a strong inverse correlation (r = -0.52, P = 0.002) between CCP usage per hospital admission and deaths occurring two weeks after admission, and this finding was robust to examination of deaths taking place one, two or three weeks after admission. Changes in the number of hospital admissions, SARS-CoV-2 variants, and age of patients could not explain these findings. The retreat from CCP usage might have resulted in as many as 29,000 excess deaths from mid-November 2020 to February 2021.Conclusions. A strong inverse correlation between CCP use and mortality per admission in the USA provides population level evidence consistent with the notion that CCP reduces mortality in COVID-19 and suggests that the recent decline in usage could have resulted in excess deaths.Funding. There was no specific funding for this study. AC was supported in part by RO1 HL059842 and R01 AI1520789; MJJ was supported in part by 5R35HL139854. This project has been funded in whole or in part with Federal funds from the Department of Health and Human Services; Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority under Contract No. 75A50120C00096.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arturo Casadevall ◽  
Quigly Dragotakes ◽  
Patrick W. Johnson ◽  
Jonathon W. Senefeld ◽  
Steven A. Klassen ◽  
...  

AbstractBackgroundThe US Food and Drug Administration authorized Convalescent Plasma (CCP) therapy for hospitalized COVID-19 patients via the Expanded Access Program (EAP) and the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA), leading to use in about 500,000 patients during the first year of the pandemic for the US.MethodsWe tracked the number of CCP units dispensed to hospitals by blood banking organizations and correlated that usage with hospital admission and mortality data.ResultsCCP usage per admission peaked in Fall 2020, with more than 40% of inpatients estimated to have received CCP between late September and early November 2020. However, after randomized controlled trials failed to show a reduction in mortality, CCP usage per admission declined steadily to a nadir of less than 10% in March 2021. We found a strong inverse correlation (r = −0.52, P = 0.002) between CCP usage per hospital admission and deaths occurring two weeks after admission, and this finding was robust to examination of deaths taking place one, two or three weeks after admission. Changes in the number of hospital admissions, SARS-CoV-2 variants, and age of patients could not explain these findings. The retreat from CCP usage might have resulted in as many as 29,000 excess deaths from mid-November 2020 to February 2021.ConclusionsA strong inverse correlation between CCP use and mortality per admission in the USA provides population level evidence consistent with the notion that CCP reduces mortality in COVID-19 and suggests that the recent decline in usage could have resulted in excess deaths.


Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 299
Author(s):  
Jaime Pinilla ◽  
Miguel Negrín

The interrupted time series analysis is a quasi-experimental design used to evaluate the effectiveness of an intervention. Segmented linear regression models have been the most used models to carry out this analysis. However, they assume a linear trend that may not be appropriate in many situations. In this paper, we show how generalized additive models (GAMs), a non-parametric regression-based method, can be useful to accommodate nonlinear trends. An analysis with simulated data is carried out to assess the performance of both models. Data were simulated from linear and non-linear (quadratic and cubic) functions. The results of this analysis show how GAMs improve on segmented linear regression models when the trend is non-linear, but they also show a good performance when the trend is linear. A real-life application where the impact of the 2012 Spanish cost-sharing reforms on pharmaceutical prescription is also analyzed. Seasonality and an indicator variable for the stockpiling effect are included as explanatory variables. The segmented linear regression model shows good fit of the data. However, the GAM concludes that the hypothesis of linear trend is rejected. The estimated level shift is similar for both models but the cumulative absolute effect on the number of prescriptions is lower in GAM.


2021 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 148-158
Author(s):  
Haneen Adeeb ◽  
Yaseen Al-Timimi

Soil salinity is one of the most important problems of land degradation, that threatening the environmental, economic and social system. The aim of this study to detect the changes in soil salinity and vegetation cover for Diyala Governorate over the period from 2005 to 2020, through the use of remote sensing techniques and geographic information system. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and salinity index (SI) were used, which were applied to four of the Landsat ETM+ and Landsat OLI satellite imagery. The results showed an increase in soil salinity from 7.27% in the period 2005–2010 to 27.03% in 2015–2020, as well as an increase in vegetation from 10% to 24% in the same period. Also the strong inverse correlation between the NDVI and the SI showed that vegetation is significantly affected and directly influenced by soil salinity changes


2008 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Predrag Kolarz ◽  
Dusan Filipovic

Diurnal atmospheric air-ion concentrations have been investigated at a site where synchronous aerosol, ozone, temperature and relative humidity measurements were also made. Air-ions, temperature and relative humidity were measured with Gerdien type Cylindrical Detector of Air-Ions (CDI-06) made in the Institute of Physics, Belgrade. Ozone and aerosols were measured with commercial instruments owned by the Institute of Public Health, Belgrade. Typical daily variations of the measured parameters were analyzed and showed that air-ions of both signs and ozone are positively correlated, while aerosols show strong inverse correlation with air-ions. Also, concentrations of air-ions and ozone are decreasing with temperature while aerosol concentration and humidity are increasing. These processes could be explained concerning properties of the specified parameters, measuring place properties and weather conditions.


Blood ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 132 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 4313-4313
Author(s):  
Kazuhide Iizuka ◽  
Noriyoshi Iriyama ◽  
Soji Morishita ◽  
Yoshikazu Iizuka ◽  
Naotake Yanagisawa ◽  
...  

Abstract Background : In myeloproliferative neoplasms, especially essential thrombocythemia (ET), platelet (Plt) counts and von Willebrand factor (vWF):Ristocetin cofactor (RCo) levels have been reported to be inversely correlated. However, there have been no reports of the comparison of high vs. low values of JAK2 allele burden and necessary of Plt counts reduction to achieve vWF:RCo levels ≥50%, which is required for major surgery. We investigated the correlation between vWF level and Plt counts for JAK2V617F mutation positive (JAK2V617F+) polycythemia vera (PV) and ET (allele burdens ≥50% and <50%) and calreticulin mutation-positive (CALR+) ET. Method: We recruited patients with PV and ET who were diagnosed per the 2008 World Health Organization criteria at 3 hospitals since 2011 to 2018. All patients were analyzed at Juntendo University for JAK2 (V617F, exson12), CALR, and MPL mutations. We collected data of JAK2V617F+ or CALR+ patients. Triple-negative mutations of ET were excluded in this study because it is difficult to differentiate between ET and secondary thrombocytosis. We analyzed the correlation between Plt counts and vWF:RCo levels for three mutation groups mutations (JAK2V617F allele burden ≥50%, <50%, CALR+) using Spearman's rank correlation test when blood samples were obtained for the first time from patients after enrolling in this study. In addition, bleeding risk was compared in three mutation groups using Fisher's exact test in patients who were controlled with relatively low Plt counts <600×10⁹/L. Results: We collected 146 PV and ET patients. Among 54 PV patients, 50 had JAK2V617F+, 3 had JAK2 exon 12, and 1 had a triple-negative mutation(s) in PV patients. Among 92 ET patients, 53 had JAK2V617F+, 35 had CALR+ (22 del52, 12 ins5 and 1 del34), and 4 had MPL mutations in ET patients. vWF:RCo levels were weakly inversely correlated with Plt counts in patients with JAK2V617F+ PV and ET from whom blood samples were obtained for the first time after enrolling in this study (Ps=-0.531 and Ps=-0.439, respectively). In contrast, vWF:RCo levels and Plt counts in patients with CALR+ ET showed a strong inverse correlation (Ps=-0.762). Interestingly, 3/50 PV and 4/53 ET patients with JAK2V617F mutations showed vWF:RCo levels >150% (normal vWF:RCo levels range: 50-150%). Furthermore, 3/50 PV and 1/53 ET patients with Plt counts <600×10⁹/L showed vWF: RCo levels <50%. However, none of the patients with CALR+ ET had vWF:RCo levels >150% or <50%. During the entire observation period, 8/50 and 7/53 patients with JAK2V617F+ PV and ET, respectively, and 1/35 patients with CALR+ ET had vWF:RCo levels >150%. One case of JAK2V617F+ ET (allele burden <50%) complicated with deep vein thrombosis; blood sampling data revealed vWF:RCo levels of 200% and a Plt count of 269×10⁹/L. The patient exhibited only age (86 years) as a risk factor for thrombosis and did not have other risk factors (diabetes mellitus, smoking history, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, thrombosis history). When Plt counts were controlled to <600×10⁹/L, all patients with JAK2V617F+ PV and ET and CALR+ ET had vWF:RCo levels >30%. However, 13/86 patients did not achieve 50%, which is the standard for safely performing the major surgical procedures prescribed in most guidelines. In patients whose Plt counts controlled to <600×10⁹/L, vWF:RCo levels <50% was more frequently seen in patients with JAK2V617F allele burden ≥50% than those those with JAK2V617F allele burden <50% (10/32 vs 2/35, p = 0.00956) or CALR mutations (10/32 vs 1/19, p = 0.0373). Conclusion: For patients with CALR+ ET, we propose that vWF:RCo levels can be predicted based on Plt counts; however, it is difficult to predict vWF:RCo levels by Plt counts in JAK2V617F+ PV and ET patients because the inverse correlation between vWF:RCo levels and Plt counts was weak. Overactivation of vWF:RCo levels was often observed in JAK2+ PV and ET. Moreover, in 1 case, the patient exhibited only age as the risk factor for the complication of thrombosis. Because of these findings, overactivation of vWF:RCo levels may be one of the reasons for thrombotic events in JAK2V617F+ PV and ET. In addition, it was also found that cases of JAK2V617F+ allele burden ≥50% in PV and ET should be careful for hemorrhage in major surgery, even if Plt counts were controlled <600×10⁹/L. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


2014 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
pp. 20-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio Paradiso ◽  
Saten Kumar ◽  
Marcella Lucchetta
Keyword(s):  
The Us ◽  

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pascual Cortés Pellicer ◽  
Faustino Alarcón Valero

Purpose: The increase in social awareness, politics and environmental regulation, the scarcity of raw materials and the desired “green” image, are some of the reasons that lead companies to decide for implement processes of Reverse Logistics (RL). At the time when incorporate new RL processes as key business processes, new and important decisions need to be made. Identification and knowledge of these decisions, including the information available and the implications for the company or supply chain, will be fundamental for decision-makers to achieve the best results. In the present work, the main types of RL decisions are identified.Design/methodology/approach: This paper is based on the analysis of mathematical models designed as tools to aid decision making in the field of RL. Once the types of interest work to be analyzed are defined, those studies that really deal about the object of study are searched and analyzed. The decision variables that are taken at work are identified and grouped according to the type of decision and, finally, are showed the main types of decisions used in mathematical models developed in the field of RL.    Findings: The principal conclusion of the research is that the most commonly addressed decisions with mathematical models in the field of RL are those related to the network’s configuration, followed by tactical/operative decisions such as the selections of product’s treatments to realize and the policy of returns or prices, among other decisions.Originality/value: The identification of the main decisions types of the reverse logistics will allow the managers of these processes to know and understand them better, while offer an integrated vision of them, favoring the achievement of better results. 


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 10-20
Author(s):  
Mouza Said Al Kalbani ◽  
Ahmad Bintouq

Funding of higher education institutions is a major growing expense for the Oman government (13–14% of the total spending in 2016) and is at par with that of other governments (e.g., 11% in the UK and 15.5% in the US). However, there has been little investigation into the funding of quality higher education in Oman. The present research project aims to explore the sources of funding at Oman universities after it opened the private education sector in 1996. The research methodology includes conducting interviews with leaders in higher education to explore different types of funding (e.g., gifts, tuition fees, government support). This will enhance our understanding, as well as that of decision-makers, regarding universities' funding sources and of the higher education landscape.


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