Assessment of Meteorological and Agricultural Drought Occurrence in Central Poland in 1961–2020 as an Element of the Climatic Risk to Crop Production

The results of numerous studies concerning meteorological drought show that there is a considerable impact of this phenomenon on several regions in Europe. On the other hand, statistical trends of dry spell occurrences in some areas of the continent are unclear or even negative. Therefore, further research should be directed towards a better understanding of this hazard, particularly the seasonal changes, in order to elaborate adequate strategies to prevent and mitigate its undesirable effects. The main goal of the work, conducted as part of the research strategy on contemporary climate change, was to confirm the hypothesis of increasing frequency and intensity of droughts during the period of active plant growth and development (May–August) in central Poland in 1961–2020. The prevailing rainfall conditions in this period determine the production and economic effects of agricultural output. The analysis covered a multiannual period, including two separate climate normals: 1961–1990 and 1991–2020. The work is also aimed at detecting relationships between indicators characterizing meteorological drought (the Standardized Precipitation Index—SPI) and agricultural drought (the actual precipitation deficiency—PAdef). It was found that the frequency of meteorological droughts in the studied period amounts to 30.0% (severe and extreme constitute 6.7%). No significant increase in the frequency and intensity of meteorological droughts over time was observed. Relationships between meteorological and agricultural drought indicators were significant, so the SPI can be considered an indicator of plant irrigation needs in the studied area.

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Assessment of Irrigation Needs in Sugar Beet (Beta vulgaris L.) in Temperate Climate of Kujawsko-Pomorskie Region (Poland)

Agronomy ◽

10.3390/agronomy9120814 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (12) ◽

pp. 814 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Renata Kuśmierek-Tomaszewska ◽

Jacek Żarski ◽

Stanisław Dudek

Keyword(s):

Sugar Beet ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

High Water ◽

Agricultural Drought ◽

Temperate Climate ◽

Sugar Beets ◽

Meteorological Droughts

The primary purpose of this work was to assess the need for irrigation in sugar beet cultivated in the temperate climate of the Kujawsko-Pomorskie region of Poland based on meteorological data from the period 1981–2010. The work was also aimed at determining the tendency of changes in the frequency and intensity of droughts during the period of high water needs for sugar beets (spanning July–August) and confirming the hypothesis that agricultural drought may be identified based on the indicator of meteorological drought—Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The occurrence of meteorological droughts amounted to 26.7–40.0%, depending on location. No significant trend of increasing dryness was found; however, quite the opposite, an upward tendency was identified, which indicates an improvement of precipitation conditions over time. It was found that sugar beet production in a temperate climate is carried out in the conditions of precipitation deficits, which amount to an average of 32–49 mm and a maximum of 112–173 mm in July–August, but the deficits showed neither significant nor targeted changes with time. A strong, significant relationship between meteorological (SPI) and agricultural (Pdef) drought indicators allows for a determination of sugar beet irrigation needs solely based on information on normalized precipitation values (SPI).

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Different Drought Legacies of Rain-Fed and Irrigated Croplands in a Typical Russian Agricultural Region

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs12111700 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (11) ◽

pp. 1700

Author(s):

Yuanhuizi He ◽

Fang Chen ◽

Huicong Jia ◽

Lei Wang ◽

Valery G. Bondur

Keyword(s):

Surface Temperature ◽

Drought Index ◽

Growth Period ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Agricultural Drought ◽

Drought Monitoring ◽

Growth Stages ◽

Drought Conditions ◽

Irrigated Lands ◽

Meteorological Droughts

Droughts are one of the primary natural disasters that affect agricultural economies, as well as the fire hazards of territories. Monitoring and researching droughts is of great importance for agricultural disaster prevention and reduction. The research significance of investigating the hysteresis of agricultural to meteorological droughts is to provide an important reference for agricultural drought monitoring and early warnings. Remote sensing drought monitoring indices can be employed for rapid and accurate drought monitoring at regional scales. In this paper, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation indices and the surface temperature product are used as the data sources. Calculating the temperature vegetation drought index (TVDI) and constructing a comprehensive drought disaster index (CDDI) based on the crop growth period allowed drought conditions and spatiotemporal evolution patterns in the Volgograd region in 2010 and 2012 to be effectively monitored. The causes of the drought were then analyzed based on the sensitivity of a drought to meteorological factors in rain-fed and irrigated lands. Finally, the lag time of agricultural to meteorological droughts and the hysteresis in different growth periods were analyzed using statistical analyses. The research shows that (1) the main drought patterns in 2010 were spring droughts from April to May and summer droughts from June to August, and the primary drought patterns in 2012 were spring droughts from April to June, with an affected area that reached 3.33% during the growth period; (2) local drought conditions are dominated by the average surface temperature factor. Rain-fed lands are sensitive to the temperature and are therefore prone to summer droughts. Irrigated lands are more sensitive to water shortages in the spring and less sensitive to extremely high temperature conditions; (3) there is a certain lag between meteorological and agricultural droughts during the different growth stages. The strongest lag relationship was found in the planting stage and the weakest one was found in the dormancy stage. Therefore, the meteorological drought index in the growth period has a better predictive ability for agricultural droughts during the appropriately selected growth stages.

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Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-19-0084.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 33 (9) ◽

pp. 3635-3661 ◽

Cited By ~ 22

Author(s):

Jonathan Spinoni ◽

Paulo Barbosa ◽

Edoardo Bucchignani ◽

John Cassano ◽

Tereza Cavazos ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Hot Spots ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

First Century ◽

Horn Of Africa ◽

Global Circulation ◽

Global Circulation Models ◽

The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Meteorological Droughts

AbstractTwo questions motivated this study: 1) Will meteorological droughts become more frequent and severe during the twenty-first century? 2) Given the projected global temperature rise, to what extent does the inclusion of temperature (in addition to precipitation) in drought indicators play a role in future meteorological droughts? To answer, we analyzed the changes in drought frequency, severity, and historically undocumented extreme droughts over 1981–2100, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI; including precipitation only) and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI; indirectly including temperature), and under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). As input data, we employed 103 high-resolution (0.44°) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), based on a combination of 16 global circulation models (GCMs) and 20 regional circulation models (RCMs). This is the first study on global drought projections including RCMs based on such a large ensemble of RCMs. Based on precipitation only, ~15% of the global land is likely to experience more frequent and severe droughts during 2071–2100 versus 1981–2010 for both scenarios. This increase is larger (~47% under RCP4.5, ~49% under RCP8.5) when precipitation and temperature are used. Both SPI and SPEI project more frequent and severe droughts, especially under RCP8.5, over southern South America, the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, southeastern China, Japan, and southern Australia. A decrease in drought is projected for high latitudes in Northern Hemisphere and Southeast Asia. If temperature is included, drought characteristics are projected to increase over North America, Amazonia, central Europe and Asia, the Horn of Africa, India, and central Australia; if only precipitation is considered, they are found to decrease over those areas.

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Commonly Used Drought Indices as Indicators of Soil Moisture in China

Journal of Hydrometeorology ◽

10.1175/jhm-d-14-0076.1 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 16 (3) ◽

pp. 1397-1408 ◽

Cited By ~ 43

Author(s):

Hongshuo Wang ◽

Jeffrey C. Rogers ◽

Darla K. Munroe

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Time Scales ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Severity Index ◽

Agricultural Drought ◽

Weather Data ◽

Drought Indices ◽

Drought Severity ◽

Better Than

Abstract Soil moisture shortages adversely affecting agriculture are significantly associated with meteorological drought. Because of limited soil moisture observations with which to monitor agricultural drought, characterizing soil moisture using drought indices is of great significance. The relationship between commonly used drought indices and soil moisture is examined here using Chinese surface weather data and calculated station-based drought indices. Outside of northeastern China, surface soil moisture is more affected by drought indices having shorter time scales while deep-layer soil moisture is more related on longer index time scales. Multiscalar drought indices work better than drought indices from two-layer bucket models. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) works similarly or better than the standardized precipitation index (SPI) in characterizing soil moisture at different soil layers. In most stations in China, the Z index has a higher correlation with soil moisture at 0–5 cm than the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), which in turn has a higher correlation with soil moisture at 90–100-cm depth than the Z index. Soil bulk density and soil organic carbon density are the two main soil properties affecting the spatial variations of the soil moisture–drought indices relationship. The study may facilitate agriculture drought monitoring with commonly used drought indices calculated from weather station data.

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Comparison of Meteorological and Agricultural Drought Indicators across Ethiopia

10.20944/preprints201908.0020.v1 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Dawit Teweldebirhan Tsige ◽

Venkatesh Uddameri ◽

Farhang Forghanparast ◽

Elma Hernandez ◽

Stephen Ekwaro-Osire

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Evaluation Framework ◽

Agricultural Drought ◽

Hydrologic Processes ◽

Preparedness Planning ◽

Drought Indicators ◽

Drought Preparedness ◽

Seasonal Droughts ◽

Meteorological Droughts

Meteorological drought indicators are commonly used for agricultural drought contingency planning in Ethiopia. Agricultural droughts arise due to soil moisture deficits. While these deficits may be caused by meteorological droughts, the timing and duration of agricultural droughts need not coincide with the onset of meteorological droughts due to soil moisture buffering. Similarly, agricultural droughts can persist even after the cessation of meteorological droughts due to delayed hydrologic processes. Understanding the relationship between meteorological and agricultural droughts is therefore crucial. An evaluation framework was developed to compare meteorological and agricultural droughts using a suite of exploratory and confirmatory tools. Receiver operator characteristics (ROC) was used to understand the covariation of meteorological and agricultural droughts. Comparisons were carried out between SPI-2, SPEI-2 and Palmer Z-index to assess intra-seasonal droughts and between SPI-6, SPEI-6 and PDSI for full-season evaluations. SPI was seen to correlate well with selected agricultural drought indicators but did not explain all the variability noted in agricultural droughts. The relationships between meteorological and agricultural droughts exhibited spatial variability which varied across indicators. SPI is better suited to predict non-agricultural drought states more so than agricultural drought states. Differences between agricultural and meteorological droughts must be accounted for better drought-preparedness planning.

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Analysis of meteorological and agricultural droughts in Serbia

Facta universitatis - series Architecture and Civil Engineering ◽

10.2298/fuace1403253m ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 253-264 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Mladen Milanovic ◽

Milan Gocic ◽

Slavisa Trajkovic

Keyword(s):

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Precipitation Index ◽

Precipitation Extreme ◽

Agricultural Drought ◽

Drought Intensity ◽

The North ◽

Rainfall Index ◽

The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Year 2000

Drought represents a combined heat-precipitation extreme and has become an increasingly frequent phenomenon in recent years. In order to access the entire analysis of drought, it is necessary to include the analysis of several types of drought. In this paper, impacts of meteorological and agricultural drought were analyzed across the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Agricultural Rainfall Index (ARI) on the territory of Serbia for the period from 1980 to 2010. For both types of drought, year 2000 is notable as the year when most of the observed stations had the highest drought intensity. It was found that meteorological drought for year 2000 has a higher intensity in the central and southeastern parts of the country, as well as in the north. Of all the stations, the highest intensity of meteorological drought was observed at Loznica station in 1989. Agricultural drought in 2000 had the lowest intensity in western Serbia.

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Evolution characteristics and relationship of meteorological and hydrological droughts from 1961 to 2018 in Hanjiang River Basin, China

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2021.267 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Lin Wang ◽

Jianyun Zhang ◽

Amgad Elmahdi ◽

Zhangkang Shu ◽

Yinghui Wu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Human Activities ◽

Water Cycle ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Hydrological Drought ◽

Evolution Characteristics ◽

Hanjiang River ◽

Hydrological Droughts ◽

Meteorological Droughts

Abstract In the context of global warming and increasing human activities, the acceleration of the water cycle will increase the risk of basin drought. In this study, to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of hydrological and meteorological droughts over the Hanjiang River Basin (HRB); the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) were selected and applied for the period 1961–2018. In addition, the cross-wavelet method was used to discuss the relationship between hydrological drought and meteorological droughts. The results and analysis indicated that: (1) the meteorological drought in the HRB showed a complex cyclical change trend of flood-drought-flood from 1961 to 2018. The basin drought began to intensify from 1990s and eased in 2010s. The characteristics of drought evolution in various regions are different based on scale. (2) During the past 58 years, the hydrological drought in the HRB has shown a significant trend of intensification, particularly in autumn season. Also, the hydrological droughts had occurred frequently since the 1990s, and there were also regional differences in the evolution characteristics of drought in various regions. (3) Reservoir operation reduces the frequency of extreme hydrological drought events. The effect of reducing the duration and intensity of hydrological drought events by releasing water from the reservoir is most obvious at Huangjiagang Station, which is the nearest to Danjiangkou Reservoir. (4) The hydrological drought and meteorological drought in the HRB have the strongest correlation on the yearly scale. After 1990, severe human activities and climate change are not only reduced the correlation between hydrological drought and meteorological drought in the middle and lower reaches of the basin, but also reduced the lag time between them. Among them, the hydrological drought in the upper reaches of the basin lags behind the meteorological drought by 1 month, and the hydrological drought in the middle and lower reaches of the basin has changed from 2 months before 1990 to 1 month lagging after 1990.

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Comparison of Meteorological- and Agriculture-Related Drought Indicators across Ethiopia

Water ◽

10.3390/w11112218 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (11) ◽

pp. 2218 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Dawit Teweldebirhan Tsige ◽

Venkatesh Uddameri ◽

Farhang. Forghanparast ◽

Elma Annette. Hernandez ◽

Stephen. Ekwaro-Osire

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Evaluation Framework ◽

Agricultural Drought ◽

Hydrologic Processes ◽

Preparedness Planning ◽

Drought Indicators ◽

Drought Preparedness ◽

The Relationship ◽

Meteorological Droughts

Meteorological drought indicators are commonly used for agricultural drought contingency planning in Ethiopia. Agricultural droughts arise due to soil moisture deficits. While these deficits may be caused by meteorological droughts, the timing and duration of agricultural droughts need not coincide with the onset of meteorological droughts due to soil moisture buffering. Similarly, agricultural droughts can persist, even after the cessation of meteorological droughts, due to delayed hydrologic processes. Understanding the relationship between meteorological and agricultural droughts is therefore crucial. An evaluation framework was developed to compare meteorological- and agriculture-related drought indicators using a suite of exploratory and confirmatory tools. Receiver operator characteristics (ROC) was used to understand the covariation of meteorological and agricultural droughts. Comparisons were carried out between SPI-2, SPEI-2, and Palmer Z-index to assess intraseasonal droughts, and between SPI-6, SPEI-6, and PDSI for full-season evaluations. SPI was seen to correlate well with selected agriculture-related drought indicators, but did not explain all the variability noted in them. The correlation between meteorological and agricultural droughts exhibited spatial variability which varied across indicators. SPI is better suited to predict non-agricultural drought states than agricultural drought states. Differences between agricultural and meteorological droughts must be accounted for in order to devise better drought-preparedness planning.

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Application of Standardized Precipitation Index to assess meteorological drought in Bangladesh

Jàmbá Journal of Disaster Risk Studies ◽

10.4102/jamba.v8i1.280 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Md. Anarul H. Mondol ◽

Subash C. Das ◽

Md. Nurul Islam

Keyword(s):

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Precipitation Index ◽

Drought Indices ◽

Drought Assessment ◽

Climatic Regions ◽

Northern Regions ◽

Central Regions ◽

History Of ◽

Meteorological Droughts

Bangladesh is one of the vulnerable countries of the world for natural disasters. Drought is one of the common and severe calamities in Bangladesh that causes immense suffering to people in various ways. The present research has been carried out to examine the frequency of meteorological droughts in Bangladesh using the long-term rainfall data of 30 meteorological observatories covering the period of 1948–2011. The study uses the highly effective Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for drought assessment in Bangladesh. By assessing the meteorological droughts and the history of meteorological droughts of Bangladesh, the spatial distributions of meteorological drought indices were also analysed. The spatial and temporal changes in meteorological drought and changes in different years based on different SPI month intervals were analysed. The results indicate that droughts were a normal and recurrent feature and it occurred more or less all over the country in virtually all climatic regions of the country. As meteorological drought depends on only rainfall received in an area, anomaly of rainfall is the main cause of drought. Bangladesh experienced drought in the years 1950, 1951, 1953, 1954, 1957, 1958, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1965, 1966, 1967 and 1971 before independence and after independence Bangladesh has experienced droughts in the years 1972, 1973, 1975, 1979, 1980, 1983, 1985, 1992, 1994, 1995, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009 and 2011 during the period 1948–2011. The study indicated that Rajshahi and its surroundings, in the northern regions and Jessore and its surroundings areas, the island Bhola and surrounding regions, in the south-west region, were vulnerable. In the Sylhet division, except Srimongal, the areas were not vulnerable but the eastern southern sides of the districts Chittagong, Rangamati, Khagrachhari, Bandarban and Teknaf were vulnerable. In the central regions, the districts of Mymensingh and Faridpur were more vulnerable than other districts.

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DROUGHT MONITORING OVER PADDY FIELD AREA IN INDRAMAYU DISTRICT, WEST JAVA USING REMOTELY SENSED INDICES

International Journal of Remote Sensing and Earth Sciences (IJReSES) ◽

10.30536/j.ijreses.2008.v5.a1227 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 5 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Parwati ◽

Miao Jungang ◽

Orbita Roswintiarti

Keyword(s):

Soil Moisture ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Condition Index ◽

Dry Season ◽

Precipitation Index ◽

Agricultural Drought ◽

Drought Monitoring ◽

West Java ◽

Vegetation Health

In this research, several meteorological and agricultural drought indices based on remote sensing data are built for drought monitoring over paddy area in Indramayu District, West Java, Indonesia. The meteorological drought index of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is developed from monthly Outgoing Long Wave Radiation (OLR) data from 1980 to 2005. The SPI represents the deficient of precipitation. Meanwhile, the agricultural drought of Vegetation Health Index (VHI) was developed from daily Moderate-resolution ImagingSpectroradiometer (MODIS) data during dry season (May-August) 2003-2006. The VHI was designed to monitoring vegetation health, soil moisture, and thermal conditions. The result shows that the agricultural drought occurate in Indramayu District, especially in the northern and southern part during the dry season in 2003 and 2004. It is found that there is a strong correlation between VHI and soil moisture measured in the field (r=0.84). Key words:Agricultural drought, Meteorological drought, Standardized Precipitation Index, Temperature Condition Index, Vegetation Condition Index.

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