scholarly journals Assessing runoff sensitivities to precipitation and temperature changes under global climate-change scenarios

2018 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Chen ◽  
Jianxia Chang ◽  
Yimin Wang ◽  
Yuelu Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Control Variable ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Abstract An accurate grasp of the influence of precipitation and temperature changes on the variation in both the magnitude and temporal patterns of runoff is crucial to the prevention of floods and droughts. However, there is a general lack of understanding of the ways in which runoff sensitivities to precipitation and temperature changes are associated with the CMIP5 scenarios. This paper investigates the hydrological response to future climate change under CMIP5 RCP scenarios by using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and then quantitatively assesses runoff sensitivities to precipitation and temperature changes under different scenarios by using a set of simulations with the control variable method. The source region of the Yellow River (SRYR) is an ideal area to study this problem. The results demonstrated that the precipitation effect was the dominant element influencing runoff change (the degree of influence approaching 23%), followed by maximum temperature (approaching 12%). The weakest element was minimum temperature (approaching 3%), despite the fact that the increases in minimum temperature were higher than the increases in maximum temperature. The results also indicated that the degree of runoff sensitivity to precipitation and temperature changes was subject to changing external climatic conditions.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Recharge in Cold and Humid Climates: Controlling Processes and Thresholds

Climate ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 6
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Dubois ◽  
Marie Larocque ◽  
Sylvain Gagné ◽  
Marco Braun
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Long Term Changes ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

Long-term changes in precipitation and temperature indirectly impact aquifers through groundwater recharge (GWR). Although estimates of future GWR are needed for water resource management, they are uncertain in cold and humid climates due to the wide range in possible future climatic conditions. This work aims to (1) simulate the impacts of climate change on regional GWR for a cold and humid climate and (2) identify precipitation and temperature changes leading to significant long-term changes in GWR. Spatially distributed GWR is simulated in a case study for the southern Province of Quebec (Canada, 36,000 km2) using a water budget model. Climate scenarios from global climate models indicate warming temperatures and wetter conditions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5; 1951–2100). The results show that annual precipitation increases of >+150 mm/yr or winter precipitation increases of >+25 mm will lead to significantly higher GWR. GWR is expected to decrease if the precipitation changes are lower than these thresholds. Significant GWR changes are produced only when the temperature change exceeds +2 °C. Temperature changes of >+4.5 °C limit the GWR increase to +30 mm/yr. This work provides useful insights into the regional assessment of future GWR in cold and humid climates, thus helping in planning decisions as climate change unfolds. The results are expected to be comparable to those in other regions with similar climates in post-glacial geological environments and future climate change conditions.

scholarly journals Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Paddy Yield: A Case Study of Nepal Agriculture Research Council (NARC), Tarahara, Nepal

1970 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 147-167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yam K Rai ◽  
Bhakta B Ale ◽  
Jawed Alam
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Research Council ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Rice Yield ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Climate change and global warming are burning issues, which significantly threat agriculture and global food security. Change in solar radiation, temperature and precipitation will influence the change in crop yields and hence economy of agriculture. It is possible to understand the phenomenon of climate change on crop production and to develop adaptation strategies for sustainability in food production, using a suitable crop simulation model. CERES-Rice model of DSSAT v4.0 was used to simulate the rice yield of the region under climate change scenarios using the historical weather data at Nepal Agriculture Research Council (NARC) Tarahara (1989-2008). The Crop Model was calibrated using the experimental crop data, climate data and soil data for two years (2000-2001) and was validated by using the data of the year 2002 at NARC Tarahara. In this study various scenarios were undertaken to analyze the rice yield. The change in values of weather parameters due to climate change and its effects on the rice yield were studied. It was observed that increase in maximum temperature up to 2°C and 1°C in minimum temperature have positive impact on rice yield but beyond that temperature it was observed negative impact in both cases of paddy production in ambient temperature. Similarly, it was observed that increased in mean temperature, have negative impacts on rice yield. The impact of solar radiation in rice yield was observed positive during the time of study period. Adjustments were made in the fertilizer rate, plant density per square meter, planting date and application of water rate to investigate suitable agronomic options for adaptation under the future climate change scenarios. Highest yield was obtained when the water application was increased up to 3 mm depth and nitrogen application rate was 140 kg/ha respectively. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/jie.v8i3.5941 JIE 2011; 8(3): 147-167

Performance of rain-fed Aman rice yield in Bangladesh in the presence of climate change

2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (04) ◽  
pp. 304-312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Abdur Rashid Sarker ◽  
Khorshed Alam ◽  
Jeff Gow
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rice Yield ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Quadratic Functional ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

AbstractThis paper uses the framework of the Just–Pope production function to evaluate the impacts of climate change on yields of the rainfed Aman rice crop in Bangladesh. It analyses disaggregated district-level data on climate variables and Aman rice yield over a 48 year time horizon. The results reveal that changes in maximum temperatures have had positive and negative effects on yield in the linear and quadratic functional forms, respectively. However, the elasticity values in the variance function confirm that maximum temperature is risk-increasing for Aman rice while minimum temperature is likely to decrease yield variability. Rainfall has become risk-increasing for Aman rice. Based on three climate change scenarios, this paper also reveals that future climate change is expected to increase the variability of Aman rice yields. Finally, statistically significant dummies for different in-country climate zones require zone-specific adaptation policies to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Water Productivity of Maize in the Semi-Arid Environment of Punjab, Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 3905
Author(s):  
Muhammad Mohsin Waqas ◽  
Syed Hamid Hussain Shah ◽  
Usman Khalid Awan ◽  
Muhammad Waseem ◽  
Ishfaq Ahmad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Water Productivity ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Farming Practices ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Swap Model ◽  
Semi Arid

Impact assessments on climate change are essential for the evaluation and management of irrigation water in farming practices in semi-arid environments. This study was conducted to evaluate climate change impacts on water productivity of maize in farming practices in the Lower Chenab Canal (LCC) system. Two fields of maize were selected and monitored to calibrate and validate the model. A water productivity analysis was performed using the Soil–Water–Atmosphere–Plant (SWAP) model. Baseline climate data (1980–2010) for the study site were acquired from the weather observatory of the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). Future climate change data were acquired from the Hadley Climate model version 3 (HadCM3). Statistical downscaling was performed using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) for the A2 and B2 scenarios of HadCM3. The water productivity assessment was performed for the midcentury (2040–2069) scenario. The maximum increase in the average maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) was found in the month of July under the A2 and B2 scenarios. The scenarios show a projected increase of 2.8 °C for Tmax and 3.2 °C for Tmin under A2 as well as 2.7 °C for Tmax and 3.2 °C for Tmin under B2 for the midcentury. Similarly, climate change scenarios showed that temperature is projected to decrease, with the average minimum and maximum temperatures of 7.4 and 6.4 °C under the A2 scenario and 7.7 and 6.8 °C under the B2 scenario in the middle of the century, respectively. However, the highest precipitation will decrease by 56 mm under the A2 and B2 scenarios in the middle of the century for the month of September. The input and output data of the SWAP model were processed in R programming for the easy working of the model. The negative impact of climate change was found under the A2 and B2 scenarios during the midcentury. The maximum decreases in Potential Water Productivity (WPET) and Actual Water Productivity (WPAI) from the baseline period to the midcentury scenario of 1.1 to 0.85 kgm−3 and 0.7 to 0.56 kgm−3 were found under the B2 scenario. Evaluation of irrigation practices directs the water managers in making suitable water management decisions for the improvement of water productivity in the changing climate.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact Assessment on the Precipitation over the Ghataprabha Sub-Basin, India under Future Climate Change Scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nagendra Reddy ◽  
Nagraj S Patil ◽  
Rajashekhar S Laddimath
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Percentage Change ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Increasing Trend

Abstract The present study has been taken up to quantify the possible impacts of the climate change on the climate variables using the outputs of global climate models datasets over the Ghataprabha Sub-basin. The climate variables (precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature) data from the five selected global climate model dataset were downscaled using change factor method under four representative concentration pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios for future periods near-century (2010-2039), mid-century (2040-2069), and end-century (2070-2099). The downscaled results of all the five models were ensembled using multi-model ensembling method to reduce the uncertainty in the projected results and the percentage change in the climate variables were shown with respect to the historical/baseline period (1961-1990) using spatial plots and histograms. The future projected results shows that percentage change in the annual mean precipitation with respect to the historical (1961-1990), is decreasing for most of the grids in the study area during the near-century while during mid and end centuries it shows an increasing trend across all the four RCP scenarios. The average daily minimum and maximum temperature with respect to the historical (1961-1990) values were showing an increasing trend in the study area during the near, mid, and end centuries across all the four RCP scenarios. Further, study also analysed the percentage change in 100-year return level over the study area.

scholarly journals The Effect of Potential Future Climate Change on the Marine Methane Hydrate Stability Zone

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (22) ◽  
pp. 5903-5917 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy G. Fyke ◽  
Andrew J. Weaver
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Methane Hydrate ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Stability Zone ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Elevated Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Hydrate Stability

Abstract The marine gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ) is sensitive to temperature changes at the seafloor, which likely affected the GHSZ in the past and may do so in the future in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. A series of climate sensitivity and potential future climate change experiments are undertaken using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) with resulting seafloor temperature changes applied to a simple time-dependent methane hydrate stability model. The global GHSZ responds significantly to elevated atmospheric CO2 over time scales of 103 yr with initial decreases of the GHSZ occurring after 200 yr in shallow high-latitude seafloor areas that underlie regions of sea ice loss. The magnitude and rate of GHSZ change is dependent primarily upon the thermal diffusivity of the seafloor and the magnitude and duration of the seafloor temperature increase. Using a simple approximation of the amount of carbon stored as hydrate in the GHSZ, estimates of carbon mobilized due to hydrate dissociation are made for several potential climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Study on the Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Mesoscale Drought in China under Future Climate Change Scenarios

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 2761
Author(s):  
Xinglong Gong ◽  
Shuping Du ◽  
Fengyu Li ◽  
Yibo Ding
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Western China ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Variation Trends ◽  
Precipitation And Temperature

In this study, precipitation, and temperature data from HadGEM2-ES under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to evaluate drought in China in the 21st century. The K-means clustering algorithm was used to analyze the regional characteristics of the dry hazard index (DHI) in China, and the impact of climate change on the variation trend and periodicity of regional drought in China was explored. The results show that the temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) of all clusters have an increasing trend under the two RCPs, and the precipitation of most clusters shows a significantly increasing trend. The drought index calculated by the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) is higher than those calculated by the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized effective precipitation evapotranspiration index (SP*ETI). The variation trends of drought intensity and frequency in China are not significant in the 21st century; however, the local variation trends are significant. The droughts in most parts of the Xinjiang Province, northern Tibet and western Qinghai Province show significantly increasing trends. According to the DHI analyses and the variations in the drought area ratio, with increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, the droughts in central and western China will become more severe, and drought will spread to the eastern areas of China. In the case that both precipitation and temperature may increase in the future, the increase in evapotranspiration caused by temperature rise will greatly affect drought dynamics. The main drought periodicity in China in the 21st century is 1~3.6 years. Drought is affected by climate change but not significantly.

scholarly journals Future climate change scenario in hot semi-arid climate of Saurashtra, Gujarat by using statistical downscaling by LARS-WG model

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 68 (4) ◽  
pp. 589-596
Author(s):  
JAYANTA SARKAR ◽  
J. R. CHICHOLIKAR
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Arid Climate ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Semi Arid ◽  
Far Future

Climate change is considered to be the greatest challenge faced by mankind in the twenty first century which can lead to severe impacts on different major sectors of the world such as water resources, agriculture, energy and tourism and are likely to alter trends and timing of precipitation and other weather drivers. Analyses and prediction of change in critical climatic variables like rainfall and temperature are, therefore, extremely important. Keeping this in mind, this study aims to verify the skills of LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research - Weather Generator), a statistical downscaling model, in simulating weather data in hot semi-arid climate of Saurashtra and analyze the future changes of temperature (maximum and minimum) and precipitation downscaled by LARS-WG based on IPCC SRA2 scenario generated by seven GCMs' projections for the near (2011-2030), medium (2046-2065) and far (2080-2099) future periods. Rajkot (22.3° N, 70.78° E) observatory of IMD, representing hot semi-arid climate of Saurashtra, Gujarat state was chosen for this purpose. Daily rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature data for the period of 1969-2013 have been utilized.             LARS-WG is found to show reasonably good skill in downscaling daily rainfall and excellent skill in downscaling maximum and minimum temperature. The downscaled rainfall indicated no coherent change trends among various GCMs’ projections of rainfall during near, medium and far future periods. Contrary to rainfall projections, simulations from the seven GCMs have coherent results for both the maximum and minimum temperatures. Based on the ensemble mean of seven GCMs, projected rainfall at Rajkot in monsoon season (JJAS) showed an increase in near future, i.e., 2011-2030, medium future (2046-2065) and far future (2080-2099) periods to the tune of 2, 11 and 14% respectively compared to the baseline value. Model studies indicating tropospheric warming leading to enhancement of atmospheric moisture content could be the reason for this increasing trend. Further, at the study site summer (MAM) maximum temperature is projected to increase by 0.5, 1.7 and 3.3°C during 2011-2030, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 respectively and winter (DJF) minimum temperature is projected to increase by 0.8, 2.2 and 4.5 °C during 2011-2030, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099 respectively.  

scholarly journals Northward expansion trends and future potential distribution of a dragonfly Ischnura senegalensis Rambur under climate change using citizen science data in South Korea

2021 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sookyung Shin ◽  
Kwang Soo Jung ◽  
Hong Gu Kang ◽  
Ji-Hee Dang ◽  
Doohee Kang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Citizen Science ◽  
Baseline Data ◽  
Distribution Range ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Science Data ◽  
Northward Expansion

Abstract Background Citizen science is becoming a mainstream approach of baseline data collection to monitor biodiversity and climate change. Dragonflies (Odonata) have been ranked as the highest priority group in biodiversity monitoring for global warming. Ischnura senegalensis Rambur has been designated a biological indicator of climate change and is being monitored by the citizen science project “Korean Biodiversity Observation Network.” This study has been performed to understand changes in the distribution range of I. senegalensis in response to climate change using citizen science data in South Korea. Results We constructed a dataset of 397 distribution records for I. senegalensis, ranging from 1980 to 2020. The number of records sharply increased over time and space, and in particular, citizen science monitoring data accounted for the greatest proportion (58.7%) and covered the widest geographical range. This species was only distributed in the southern provinces until 2010 but was recorded in the higher latitudes such as Gangwon-do, Incheon, Seoul, and Gyeonggi-do (max. Paju-si, 37.70° latitude) by 2020. A species distribution model showed that the annual mean temperature (Bio1; 63.2%) and the maximum temperature of the warmest month (Bio5; 16.7%) were the most critical factors influencing its distribution. Future climate change scenarios have predicted an increase in suitable habitats for this species. Conclusions This study is the first to show the northward expansion in the distribution range of I. senegalensis in response to climate warming in South Korea over the past 40 years. In particular, citizen science was crucial in supplying critical baseline data to detect the distribution change toward higher latitudes. Our results provide new insights on the value of citizen science as a tool for detecting the impact of climate change on ecosystems in South Korea.

scholarly journals ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE BASED ON ANNUAL TREND AND CHANGE OF TEMPERATURE IN MANOKWARI, WEST PAPUA

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-57
Author(s):  
Femmy Marsitha Barung ◽  
Wendel Jan Pattipeilohy ◽  
Robi Muharsyah
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Index Numbers ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Climate Change Assessment

A simple climate change assessment is carried out on annual air temperatures including average, maximum and minimum temperatures in Rendani, Manokwari for the period of 1993-2019. Parametric linear regression and nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test (MK), Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), Sen's Slope Estimator (SSE)are used to analyze trends and index numbers for analyzing the temperature changes. Homogenity test is performed using double mass curve and assumption of normality in the distribution is also investigated to meet the requirements of the linear regression trend test. There as a significant upward trend in the mean and minimum temperature with a slope of 0.029ºC/year and 0.069ºC/year, respectively. Meanwhile, the maximum temperature test shows no trend with a slope of 0.009ºC/year. Analysis of temperature changes using index numbers shows an increase in annual average temperature of 2.8% or 0.7°C, maximum temperature of 1.2% or 0.4°C, and minimum temperature of 3.1% or 0.8°C. The increase in annual air temperature in Manokwari City can generally be caused by several factors such as El Nino phenomenon, urbanization, population growth, and deforestation.

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