scholarly journals Are COVID-19 Data Reliable? A Quantitative Analysis of Pandemic Data from 182 Countries

COVID ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 137-152
Author(s):  
Noah Farhadi ◽  
Hooshang Lahooti
Keyword(s):  
Reliable Data ◽  
Benford’S Law ◽  
Global Health Security ◽  
Quality Of Data ◽  
Health Security ◽  
The Past ◽  
Six Nations ◽  
Benford's Law ◽  
The Uk

When it comes to COVID-19, access to reliable data is vital. It is crucial for the scientific community to use data reported by independent territories worldwide. This study evaluates the reliability of the pandemic data disclosed by 182 countries worldwide. We collected and assessed conformity of COVID-19 daily infections, deaths, tests, and vaccinations with Benford’s law since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. It is commonly accepted that the frequency of leading digits of the pandemic data shall conform to Benford’s law. Our analysis of Benfordness elicits that most countries partially distributed reliable data over the past eighteen months. Notably, the UK, Australia, Spain, Israel, and Germany, followed by 22 different nations, provided the most reliable COVID-19 data within the same period. In contrast, twenty-six nations, including Tajikistan, Belarus, Bangladesh, and Myanmar, published less reliable data on the coronavirus spread. In this context, over 31% of countries worldwide seem to have improved reliability. Our measurement of Benfordness moderately correlates with Johns Hopkin’s Global Health Security Index, suggesting that the quality of data may depend on national healthcare policies and systems. We conclude that economically or politically distressed societies have declined in conformity to the law over time. Our results are particularly relevant for policymakers worldwide.

scholarly journals Can we rely on COVID-19 data? An assessment of data from over 200 countries worldwide

2021 ◽  
Vol 104 (2) ◽  
pp. 003685042110212
Author(s):  
Noah Farhadi
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Reliable Data ◽  
Benford’S Law ◽  
Quality Of Data ◽  
Local Authorities ◽  
Strong Indicator ◽  
The World ◽  
Benford's Law ◽  
Islamic Republic Of Iran ◽  
Increasing Demand

To fight COVID-19, global access to reliable data is vital. Given the rapid acceleration of new cases and the common sense of global urgency, COVID-19 is subject to thorough measurement on a country-by-country basis. The world is witnessing an increasing demand for reliable data and impactful information on the novel disease. Can we trust the data on the COVID-19 spread worldwide? This study aims to assess the reliability of COVID-19 global data as disclosed by local authorities in 202 countries. It is commonly accepted that the frequency distribution of leading digits of COVID-19 data shall comply with Benford’s law. In this context, the author collected and statistically assessed 106,274 records of daily infections, deaths, and tests around the world. The analysis of worldwide data suggests good agreement between theory and reported incidents. Approximately 69% of countries worldwide show some deviations from Benford’s law. The author found that records of daily infections, deaths, and tests from 28% of countries adhered well to the anticipated frequency of first digits. By contrast, six countries disclosed pandemic data that do not comply with the first-digit law. With over 82 million citizens, Germany publishes the most reliable records on the COVID-19 spread. In contrast, the Islamic Republic of Iran provides by far the most non-compliant data. The author concludes that inconsistencies with Benford’s law might be a strong indicator of artificially fabricated data on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 by local authorities. Partially consistent with prior research, the United States, Germany, France, Australia, Japan, and China reveal data that satisfies Benford’s law. Unification of reporting procedures and policies globally could improve the quality of data and thus the fight against the deadly virus.

scholarly journals The balance between food and dietary supplements in the general population

2018 ◽  
Vol 78 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marleen A. H. Lentjes
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Nutrient Intake ◽  
Supplement Use ◽  
The Past ◽  
Nutrition Guidelines ◽  
Public Health Messages ◽  
Dietary Supplement Use ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Deficiency Diseases

In the past, vitamins and minerals were used to cure deficiency diseases. Supplements nowadays are used with the aim of reducing the risk of chronic diseases of which the origins are complex. Dietary supplement use has increased in the UK over recent decades, contributing to the nutrient intake in the population, but not necessarily the proportion of the population that is sub-optimally nourished; therefore, not reducing the proportion below the estimated average requirement and potentially increasing the number at risk of an intake above the safety limits. The supplement nutrient intake may be objectively monitored using circulation biomarkers. The influence of the researcher in how the supplements are grouped and how the nutrient intakes are quantified may however result in different conclusions regarding their nutrient contribution, the associations with biomarkers, in general, and dose–response associations specifically. The diet might be sufficient in micronutrients, but lacking in a balanced food intake. Since public-health nutrition guidelines are expressed in terms of foods, there is potentially a discrepancy between the nutrient-orientated supplement and the quality of the dietary pattern. To promote health, current public-health messages only advocate supplements in specific circumstances, but not in optimally nourished populations.

scholarly journals Reliability of Data Collected by Volunteers: A Nine-Year Citizen Science Study in the Red Sea

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marta Meschini ◽  
Mariana Machado Toffolo ◽  
Chiara Marchini ◽  
Erik Caroselli ◽  
Fiorella Prada ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Citizen Science ◽  
Red Sea ◽  
Reliable Data ◽  
Marine Biodiversity ◽  
Quality Of Data ◽  
Mass Tourism ◽  
Science Approach ◽  
Citizen Science Project ◽  
Professional Volunteers

The quality of data collected by non-professional volunteers in citizen science programs is crucial to render them valid for implementing environmental resources management and protection plans. This study assessed the reliability of data collected by non-professional volunteers during the citizen science project Scuba Tourism for the Environment (STE), carried out in mass tourism facilities of the Red Sea between 2007 and 2015. STE involved 16,164 volunteer recreational divers in data collection on marine biodiversity using a recreational citizen science approach. Through a specifically designed questionnaire, volunteers indicated which of the seventy-two marine taxa surveyed were observed during their recreational dive, giving an estimate of their abundance. To evaluate the validity of the collected data, a reference researcher randomly dived with the volunteers and filled in the project questionnaire separately. Correlation analyses between the records collected by the reference researcher and those collected by volunteers were performed based on 513 validation trials, testing 3,138 volunteers. Data reliability was analyzed through 7 parameters. Consistency showed the lowest mean score (51.6%, 95% Confidence Interval CI 44.1–59.2%), indicating that volunteers could direct their attention to different taxa depending on personal interests; Percent Identified showed the highest mean score (66.7%, 95% CI 55.5–78.0), indicating that volunteers can correctly identify most surveyed taxa. Overall, results confirmed that the recreational citizen science approach can effectively support reliable data for biodiversity monitoring, when carefully tailored for the volunteer skills required by the specific project. The use of a recreational approach enhances massive volunteer participation in citizen science projects, thus increasing the amount of sufficiently reliable data collected in a reduced time.

scholarly journals Applying Benford’s Law to Examine the Quality of Reported Income Numbers of Unlisted Firms

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (12) ◽  
pp. 211
Author(s):  
Sudershan Kuntluru ◽  
Rachappa Shette ◽  
Achalapathi K.V.
Keyword(s):  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Listed Companies ◽  
Benford’S Law ◽  
Annual Income ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Benford's Law ◽  
Unlisted Firms ◽  
Reported Income

<p>The present study makes an attempt to examine the quality of reported income numbers of unlisted firms in India. The Benford’s Law is applied to examine the digital occurrence of reported income numbers of unlisted firms. The analysis is based on 43,996 reported annual income numbers of 22,147 sample firms during the financial years from 2000-01 to 2011-12. Further, the results are analyzed under four different scenarios viz., ownership, size, age and nature of industry. The empirical results show that the observed proportionate occurrence of zero is significantly less than the expected proportionate occurrence. These results are contrary to the findings of the related studies of listed companies. The results indicate lower quality of reported income numbers of unlisted firms. Based on the scenario analysis, the empirical results indicate that the proportionate occurrence of second single digits of state-owned unlisted firms confirm the Benford’s Law. The present study contributes to the literature by examining the quality of reported income numbers of unlisted firms using the Benford’s Law.</p>

scholarly journals EDITORIAL NOTE

1997 ◽  
Vol 134 (3) ◽  
pp. 285-285
Author(s):  
Nigel Woodcock ◽  
Nick McCave ◽  
Mike Bickle ◽  
Jane Holland
Keyword(s):  
Editorial Note ◽  
Geographical Proximity ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
The Past ◽  
Editorial Practice ◽  
On Line ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Geological Magazine

This issue marks the departure of the longest-serving of the current editors of Geological Magazine, Dr Chris Hughes, and his replacement by Dr Tim Palmer (University of Wales, Aberystwyth). The Geological Magazine has always had a strong content of palaeontology and biostratigraphy, and Chris Hughes has efficiently maintained the quality of these contributions since 1973. He is moving on from his lectureship in the Cambridge Earth Sciences Department to head the Associated Examining Board, based in Guildford. The other editors thank him warmly for his experienced guidance over the past 24 years and wish him success in his new post.The editors welcome Tim Palmer, whose appointment from outside the Cambridge department represents a significant and deliberate departure from custom. Some 13 years ago, the Magazine broadened its editorial advice in a major way by appointing an Editorial Board, most of whose members have come not just from outside Cambridge, but from beyond the UK. Our new editorial appointment signals an extension of this same policy.An important advantage of having all the Magazine's editors under one roof has been the efficiency and speed of communicating with each other. However, with the Cambridge editors now talking to each other as much by Email as face-to-face, geographical proximity has become a less crucial asset. The spread of Email is changing many other aspects of the editorial practice and the Geological Magazine office, run by Jane Holland, is now on-line at [email protected]. The editors now encourage the use of Email for all business except for submission of manuscripts, and in particular for contributors' queries and for referees' reports.

Benford's law in medicinal chemistry: Implications for drug design

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (17) ◽  
pp. 2247-2253 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfonso T García-Sosa
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Medicinal Chemistry ◽  
Pattern Mining ◽  
Benford’S Law ◽  
Log P ◽  
Data Generation ◽  
Natural Phenomena ◽  
Quality Of Data ◽  
Benford's Law ◽  
Predicted Values

Aim: The explosion of data based technology has accelerated pattern mining. However, it is clear that quality and bias of data impacts all machine learning and modeling. Results & methodology: A technique is presented for using the distribution of first significant digits of medicinal chemistry features: log P, log S, and p Ka. experimental and predicted, to assess their following of Benford's law as seen in many natural phenomena. Conclusion: Quality of data depends on the dataset sizes, diversity, and magnitudes. Profiling based on drugs may be too small or narrow; using larger sets of experimentally determined or predicted values recovers the distribution seen in other natural phenomena. This technique may be used to improve profiling, machine learning, large dataset assessment and other data based methods for better (automated) data generation and designing compounds.

scholarly journals Glancing at the past and course-setting for the future: lessons from the last decade of research on medication abortion in high-income countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Annik M. Sorhaindo
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
High Income ◽  
Policy And Practice ◽  
Medication Abortion ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Quality Evidence

Abstract Objective Although medication abortion has become more common in high-income countries, the procedure has not yet met early expectations for widening access to abortion. High-quality evidence can serve as a catalyst for changes in policy and practice. To direct research priorities, it is important to understand where quality evidence is concentrated and where gaps remain. High-income countries have developed a body of evidence that may have implications for the future of medication abortion. This literature review assesses the characteristics and quality of published studies on medication abortion conducted in the last 10 years in high-income countries and indicates future areas for research to advance policy and practice, and broaden access. Study design A structured search for literature resulted in 207 included studies. A framework based upon the World Health Organization definition of sub-tasks for medication abortion was developed to categorize research by recognized stages of the medication abortion process. Using an iterative and inductive approach, additional sub-themes were created under each of these categories. Established quality assessment frameworks were drawn upon to gauge the internal and external validity of the included research. Results Studies in the US and the UK have dominated research on MA in high-income countries. The political and social contexts of these countries will have shaped of this body of research. The past decade of research has focused largely on clinical aspects of medication abortion. Conclusion Researchers should consider refocusing energies toward testing service delivery approaches demonstrating promise and prioritizing research that has broader generalizability and relevance outside of narrow clinical contexts. Plain English summary Although medication abortion is more commonly available worldwide, it is not being used as often as people thought it would be, particularly in high income countries. In order to encourage changes in policy and practice that would allow greater use, we need good quality evidence. If we can understand where we do not have enough research and where we have good amounts of research, we can determine where to invest energies in further studies. Many high-income countries have produced research on medication abortion that could influence policy and practice in similarly resourced contexts. I conducted a literature review to be able to understand the type and quality of research on medication abortion conducted in high-income countries in the past 10 years. I conducted the review in an organized way to make sure that the papers reviewed discussed studies that I thought would be important for answering this question. The literature review found 207 papers. Each of these papers were reviewed and organized them by theme. I also used existing methods to determinine the quality of each study. Most of the research came from the US and the UK. Furthermore, most of the research conducted in the past 10 years was focused on clinical studies of medication abortion. In future studies, researchers should focus more on new ways of providing medication abortion to women that offers greater access. Also, the studies should be designed so that the results have meaning for a broader group of people or situations beyond where the study was done.

scholarly journals LIVING ALONE WITH DEMENTIA: FINDINGS FROM THE IDEAL COHORT

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S40-S40
Author(s):  
Linda Clare ◽  
Linda Clare ◽  
Anthony Martyr ◽  
Catherine Quinn ◽  
Christina Victor ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Satisfaction With Life ◽  
Living Alone ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Functional Difficulties ◽  
The Past ◽  
Moderate Dementia ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Ideal

Abstract We aimed to better understand the profile of people living alone with mild-to-moderate dementia in the UK and to identify any systematic differences between those living alone and those living with others. We analysed cross-sectional data from 1541 people with mild-to-moderate dementia participating in the IDEAL cohort at the first wave of assessment. There were 285 participants (18.5%) living alone and 1256 (81.5%) living with others, usually a spouse/partner. Among those living alone, 145 (50.9%) had no care partner participating in the study, and 56 (19%) had received no help from a relative or friend in the past week. People living alone were older on average than those living with others, reported fewer functional difficulties, had slightly smaller social networks, engaged in fewer cultural activities, and experienced slightly more loneliness. People living alone had lower satisfaction with life scores, but quality of life scores did not differ between the groups.

Reading Russian Tea Leaves: Assessing the Quality of Bank Financial Statements with the Benford Distribution

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (04) ◽  
pp. 1650021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Denis Davydov ◽  
Steve Swidler
Keyword(s):  
Reporting Quality ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Benford’S Law ◽  
Bank Failures ◽  
Recent Experience ◽  
Net Income ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Detection Algorithms ◽  
Benford's Law

Benford’s Law, a rule concerning first digits of an array of numbers, has frequently been used to test for the reporting quality of financial statements. When applied to the recent experience for Russian banks, one conclusion is that the 2004 regime shift in accounting standards produced higher quality financial statements. Prior to 2004, the Benford evidence suggests that Russian banks tended to round revenues up, expenses down and thus overstate net income. It also appears that banks may have presented stronger balance sheets than warranted. In the second part of the analysis, the practical use of Benford’s Law to discern a looming bank failure appears limited. While there is, perhaps, some beneficial information to be drawn from testing for Benford distribution conformity, in isolation the tests for financial statement manipulation are inconclusive. Instead, Benford might be used with other early warning detection algorithms to recognize impending bank failures.

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