scholarly journals Unemployment and COVID-19 Impact in Greece: A Vector Autoregression (VAR) Data Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 41
Author(s):  
Christos Katris
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Response Function ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
The Other ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
The Impact

In this paper, the scope is to study whether and how the COVID-19 situation affected the unemployment rate in Greece. To achieve this, a vector autoregression (VAR) model is employed and data analysis is carried out. Another interesting question is whether the situation affected more heavily female and the youth unemployment (under 25 years old) compared to the overall unemployment. To predict the future impact of COVID-19 on these variables, we used the Impulse Response function. Furthermore, there is taking place a comparison of the impact of the pandemic with the other European countries for overall, female, and youth unemployment rates. Finally, the forecasting ability of such a model is compared with ARIMA and ANN univariate models.

Agricultural production in Poland and agri-food exports

2018 ◽  
Vol 63 (4) ◽  
pp. 58-72
Author(s):  
Jacek Strojny
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Response Function ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
The Other ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Research Show

The research is aiming at the identification of the dynamic causality between agricultural production in Poland and exports of agri-food goods. Identification of the magnitude and direction of these variables may be used for economic policy forming. The study covers the period of 1991—2013 and is based on the data from the FAO; the research employs the vector autoregression methodology (VAR). The study comprises, among others, the analysis of the impulse response function and variance decomposition of forecasts’ errors of VAR model variables. The results of the research show that agricultural production in Poland is shaped by both own and exports delays. On the other hand, agri-food exports are mainly influenced by their own development trends. This means that, in the VAR model, exports should be seen as a priority ('more exogenous').

scholarly journals Intervenções Regulatórias, Volatilidade e Contágio: Uma Análise VIRF

2014 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 385
Author(s):  
Gabriel Godofredo Fiuza de Bragança ◽  
Marcelo De Sales Pessoa ◽  
Katia Rocha
Keyword(s):  
Impulse Response ◽  
Response Function ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
The Other ◽  
Conditional Heteroskedasticity ◽  
Regulatory Interventions ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Electricity Utilities ◽  
Regulatory Measure

This paper examines how regulatory interventions can affect the market risk of electricity utilities and telecom carriers traded in the Brazilian stock market (BOVESPA). Our article uses a bivariate Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH - BEKK) model to analyze the impact of two relevant and surprising measures taken by the correspondent Brazilian regulatory authorities in 2012 (one in each sector) on both markets’ volatilities and covariance. We also adopt the volatility impulse response function (VIRF) developed by Hafner & Herwartz (2006) to estimate their persistence. On the one hand, the results indicate that the effects of the telecommunications’ regulatory intervention are negligible but, on the other hand, the impact of the electricity's regulatory measure is significant, long-lasting and contagious.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Impact Fiscal Fundamentals on Unemployment in Nigeria. Imperatives for Covid 19, Era

2021 ◽  
Vol 04 (05) ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Ologbenla ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Increase Productivity ◽  
Employment Generation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The study examined the impact of fiscal fundamental on unemployment rate in Nigeria from 1980 to 2020 focusing on COVID-19 imperatives. The research work embraces OLS estimating techniques to estimate the relationship between the variables. The result of the analysis revealed that government expenditure had positive and significant effect on the rate of unemployment. Also government revenue had a positive but insignificant impact on unemployment during. The implication of these findings for COVID-19 is that the narrative which is obtained from the analysis needs to be changed. Government revenue should be made to have significant impact on unemployment. The pandemic has led to a lot of job lost and the unemployment rate in Nigeria has risen by about 55% peaking at 36% youth unemployment rate as at last quarter of 2020. The study therefore, recommends that government should refocus expenditure and revenue in the country in such a way it will target development of infrastructural facilities so as to increase productivity and in turn facilitate employment generation.

Influence of News Tonality on Credit Market during Sanctions Period

2021 ◽  
pp. 97-116
Author(s):  
Elena A. Fedorova ◽  
Lyubov E. Khrustova ◽  
Igor’ S. Demin
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Credit Market ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Negative News ◽  
Indirect Impact ◽  
Foreign Media ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Management Expectations

Russian economy was influenced by western sanctions in many spheres. Russian credit market was significantly impacted as well. The presented work suggests that except for the strict influence in form of financial restrictions and assets freezing, sanctions also had indirect impact. Emotional presentation of Russian sanctions in abroad media can be claimed as one of the indirect factors, which form banking management expectations of economic situation and influences people to have loans and place money into deposits. The aim of research is to estimate the influence of news about Russian sanctions tonality in foreign media on the level of credit and deposit interest rates in Russian commercial banks. To achieve this goal, the following hypotheses were claimed: there is a connection between the way in which sanctions against Russia are presented in foreign media and the level of interest rates; there is a difference in the impact of positive and negative news texts on the expectations, determining changes in interest rates. «Bag of words» technique and a special dictionary, which helps to identify the emotional tonality of the text, were used to achieve the declared aim. Advanced modeling of interest rates was carried out using the vector autoregression (VAR) model, supplemented by the construction of the impulse response function and the calculation of the rate dispersion decomposition. As a result, a hypothesis about the influence of news tonality on commercial bank interest rates’ was approved.

scholarly journals Crude oil price variability and its impact on ethanol prices

2011 ◽  
Vol 57 (No. 8) ◽  
pp. 394-403 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Pokrivčák ◽  
M. Rajčaniová
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Response Function ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Biofuel Production ◽  
Oil Price Shock ◽  
Price Shock ◽  
The Impact

The world annual biofuel production has exceeded 100 billion litres in 2009. The development of the biofuel production is partly influenced by the government support programs and partly by the development of oil prices. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the statistical relationship between ethanol, gasoline and crude oil prices. We aim to check the correlation among these variables and to analyze the strength and direction of a possible linear relationship among the variables. We are interested in analyzing how each variable is related to another, so we evaluate the inter-relationship among the variables in the Vector Autoregression (VAR) and the Impulse Response Function (IRF). In order to achieve our goal, we first collected weekly data for each variable from January, 2000 to October, 2009. The results provide evidence of the cointegration relationship between oil and gasoline prices, but no cointegration between ethanol, gasoline and ethanol, oil prices. As a result, we used a VAR model on first differences. After running the Impulse Response Function, we found out that the impact of the oil price shock on the other variables is considerable larger than vice versa. The largest impact of oil price shock was observed on the price of gasoline.  

scholarly journals The Output Gap and Youth Unemployment: An Analysis Based on Okun’s Law

Economies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 108
Author(s):  
Mindaugas Butkus ◽  
Janina Seputiene
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
Okun’S Law ◽  
Equilibrium Unemployment ◽  
Age And Gender ◽  
Okun's Law ◽  
And Gender ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Gender Specific ◽  
Potential Level

The impact of economic fluctuations on the total unemployment rate is widely studied, however, with respect to age- and gender-specific unemployment, this relationship is not so well examined. We apply the gap version of Okun’s law, aiming to estimate youth unemployment rate sensitivity to output deviations from its potential level. Additionally, we aim to compare whether men or women have a higher equilibrium unemployment rate when output is at the potential level. Contrary to most studies on age- and gender-specific Okun’s coefficients, which assume that the effect of output on unemployment is homogenous, we allow a different effect to occur, depending on the output gap’s sign (positive/negative). The focus of the analysis is on 28 EU countries over the period of 2000–2018. The model is estimated by least squares dummy variable estimator (LSDV), using Prais–Winsten standard errors. We did not find evidence that higher equilibrium unemployment rates are more typical for men or for women. The estimates clearly show the equilibrium level of youth unemployment to be well above that of total unemployment, and this conclusion holds for both genders. We assess greater youth unemployment sensitivity to negative output shock, rather than to positive output shock, but when we take confidence intervals into consideration, this conclusion becomes less obvious.

The Use of a WhatsApp Record for Communication With Students

2021 ◽  
pp. 310-325
Author(s):  
Leslie Chiuswa ◽  
Alex Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Teaching And Learning ◽  
The Other ◽  
Mixed Methodology ◽  
Internet Connectivity ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Regional Campus ◽  
The University ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Quantitative Approaches

The purpose of this study was to explore the impact of WhatsApp usage in disseminating information to students at the Management, Zimbabwe Open University's Mashonaland West Regional Campus. This study employed a mixed methodology wherein both the qualitative and quantitative approaches were used. Data was collected using questionnaires and interviews. The questionnaires were distributed to students through WhatsApp groups for all faculties. A total of 255 questionnaires were distributed to students through the existing WhatsApp groups. Of the distributed questionnaires, 128 were returned, and of these, 69 were usable for data analysis. The study revealed that the majority of students utilize WhatsApp for communication with the university. The other finding was that WhatsApp communication was characterized by data bundle costs and internet connectivity challenges. The study recommended that there be a WhatsApp policy and widening of the use for teaching and learning.

scholarly journals Impact of agricultural supports on competitiveness of agricultural products

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (No. 6) ◽  
pp. 286-295
Author(s):  
Hasan Arisoy
Keyword(s):  
Competitive Advantage ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Political Variable ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

The agricultural sector is being supported in Turkey, as well as in the world. The issue of competitiveness is observed in agriculture, despite supports. This study aims at investigating the impact of agricultural supports in Turkey on competitiveness of agricultural products. Vector autoregression (VAR) model has been adopted in the study. The internal terms of trade (TOT), percentage producer support estimate (PSE), and the producer nominal protection coefficient (NPC) variables have been included in the model. The internal terms of trade in Turkey have developed over time against the benefit of agricultural sector. PSE has had a significant impact on TOT. Therefore, the use of PSE as a political variable has been concluded as a significant. Means of support must be discussed in Turkey more than the amount of supports. In particular, supports that will provide farmers with competitive advantage and boost up product farmyard prices will be more efficient and beneficial for farmers.

Research on Information Applied Technology with Data Analysis of Flowers Auction Data Based on Cointegration and Granger Casualty

2014 ◽  
Vol 886 ◽  
pp. 546-551
Author(s):  
Guang Hui Zhang ◽  
Xiao He Zhang ◽  
Guo Yong Huang
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Auction Market ◽  
Applied Technology ◽  
Volume Of Trade

According to the research of the variables (supply quantity, volume of trade, failed auction rate and price) using the information applied technology with data, from Kunming flowers auction market, with cointegration and Granger casualty, the result shows that the price has an impact on supply quantity and volume of trade with one lagged period, the supply quantity and volume of trade affect the price with three lagged periods. At the same time, the price affects the failed auction rate with three lagged periods. The failed auction rate affects the price in the same way. With the analysis of above, the supply quantity and volume of trade may exit multicollinearity. It is proved by vector autoregression (VAR) model. The results will be a guide to the flowers auction.

Global Patents on 3D Printing: Revelations Based on Vector Autoregression Analysis for Three Decades

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (06) ◽  
pp. 1750004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rohit S. Kannattukunnel
Keyword(s):  
3D Printing ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Response Function ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vec Model ◽  
The Government

Engineers and designers from automotive and aerospace sectors have been using 3D printing (3DP) for decades to build prototypes. However, 3DP became popular only recently. This paper is divided into three sections. Section 1 is introductory in nature, which deals with current trends, the modeling process of printing and deliberation on different categories of 3DP. Section 2 deals with the research methodology. An exquisite technique to study innovation dealing with time series data, called the vector autoregression (VAR), is performed to analyze the world patent data on 3DP, based on the information provided by the Government of UK and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Section 3 attempts to forecast future trends on 3DP by using two techniques viz. impulse response function and variance decomposition. The VAR analysis performed revealed that GDP is not directly instrumental in the advancement in patenting of 3DP technology. Results captured by way of impulse response function suggest that when a shock is given to PR itself, it decreases sharply, whereas when a shock is given to investment, PR undergoes a steady decline. Thus, if there is any adverse shock imparted on investments, it directly reduces the patent ratio. Lastly, when an impulse is given to GDP, PR continuously increases, which implies that increase in GDP causes hike in investment which ultimately increases PR. The results of variance decomposition indicate that in the initial periods, PR itself explains the maximum variance, followed by the GDP and to the least by investment. The changes observed with the trend of explanatory character of variance imply that more investments in technology are instrumental in increasing patent ratio in the G7 countries as per the vector error correction (VEC) model developed here. Though during the nascent stage of emerging technologies investment in technology may not necessarily increase the patent ratio, the result obtained brings to light interesting insights.

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