scholarly journals Modeling Current and Future Potential Geographical Distribution of Carpinus tientaiensis, a Critically Endangered Species from China

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 774
Author(s):  
Runan Zhao ◽  
Xiaojie Chu ◽  
Qianqian He ◽  
Yan Tang ◽  
Min Song ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Endangered Species ◽  
Ex Situ Conservation ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Ex Situ ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Critically Endangered Species ◽  
Species Survival

Future climate change will have serious impacts on species survival and distribution and will likely lead to the extinction of some species classified as endangered. Carpinus tientaiensis (Betulaceae), a unique and endangered species in China, has restricted distribution and a small population, indicating an urgent need for its protection. However, research on its current distribution or the influence that climate change will have on its future survival and distribution is limited. We used a MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software to predict the current and future niches of C. tientaiensis. The current suitable distribution area of C. tientaiensis is small, mainly in east China, south Zhejiang and Anhui, and central and southern mountainous areas of Taiwan province. The core suitable areas are concentrated in the Xianxialing and Kuocang mountains in south Zhejiang, the southern mountains of Taiwan, and the Dabie, Huangshan and Jiuhua mountains in south Anhui. Among the 15 BIOCLIM variables examined, the precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17) was found to be the most important factor limiting C. tientaiensis survival and distribution. Future field investigations will focus on the Xianxialing and Kuocang mountains, as they may have unidentified wild C. tientaiensis communities. In the future, the Kuocang, Dapan and Tiantai mountains in east Zhejiang, and the high-altitude areas of Dabie and Jiuhua mountains in south Anhui, will be suitable for C. tientaiensis ex situ conservation and cultivation. However, the suitable distribution and core suitable areas for C. tientaiensis will decrease sharply as they are susceptible to climate shocks. Moreover, the suitable distribution area of C. tientaiensis is predicted to move slightly north and obviously eastward. Therefore, we suggest that strengthen conservation and management efforts for C. tientaiensis in its original habitats, and actively carry out ex situ conservation and artificial breeding in botanical gardens.

scholarly journals Potential Distribution of Blumea Balsamifera in China Using MaxEnt and The Ex-Situ Conservation Based on its Effective Components and Fresh Leaf Yield

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lingliang Guan ◽  
YuXia Yang ◽  
Pan Jiang ◽  
Qiuyu Mou ◽  
Yunsha Gou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ex Situ ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Total Flavonoids ◽  
Fresh Leaf ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Leaf Yield ◽  
Suitable Habitats

Abstract Blumea balsamifera is a famous Chinese Minority Medicine, which has a long history in Miao, Li, Zhuang and other minority areas. In recent years, due to the influence of natural and human factors, the distribution area of B. balsamifera resources has a decreasing trend. Therefore, it is very important to analyze the suitability of B. balsamifera in China. Following three climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) under 2050s and 2070s, geographic information technology (GIS) and maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) were used to simulate the ecological suitability of B. balsamifera. The contents of L-borneol and total flavonoids of B. balsamifera in different populations were determined by gas chromatography (GC) and ultraviolet spectrophotometry (UV). The results showed that the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of B. balsamifera were mean temperature of coldest quarter (6.18-26.57 ℃), precipitation of driest quarter (22.46-169.7 mm), annual precipitation (518.36-1845.29 mm) and temperature seasonality (291.31-878.87). Under current climate situation, the highly suitable habitat was mainly located western Guangxi, southern Yunnan, most of Hainan, southwestern Guizhou, southwestern Guangdong, southeastern Fujian and western Taiwan, with a total area of 24.1×104 km2. The areas of the moderately and poorly suitable habitats were 27.57×104 km2 and 42.43×104 km2, respectively. Under the future climate change scenarios, the areas of the highly, moderately, and poorly suitable habitats of B. balsamifera showed a significant increasing trend, the geometric center of the total suitable habitats of B. balsamifera would move to the northeast. In recent years, the planting area of B. balsamifera has been reduced on a large scale in Guizhou, and its ex situ protection is imperative. By comparison, the content of L-borneol, total flavonoids and fresh leaf yield had no significant difference between Guizhou and Hainan (P > 0.05), which indicated that Hainan one of the best choice for ex-situ protection of B. balsamifera.

scholarly journals Impact of Past and Future Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of an Endangered Montane Shrub Lonicera oblata and Its Conservation Implications

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 125
Author(s):  
Yuan-Mi Wu ◽  
Xue-Li Shen ◽  
Ling Tong ◽  
Feng-Wei Lei ◽  
Xian-Yun Mu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Endangered Species ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
North China ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Interglacial Period ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Conservation Implications ◽  
Suitable Habitats

Climate change is an important driver of biodiversity patterns and species distributions, understanding how organisms respond to climate change will shed light on the conservation of endangered species. In this study, we modeled the distributional dynamics of a critically endangered montane shrub Lonicera oblata in response to climate change under different periods by building a comprehensive habitat suitability model considering the effects of soil and vegetation conditions. Our results indicated that the current suitable habitats for L. oblata are located scarcely in North China. Historical modeling indicated that L. oblata achieved its maximum potential distribution in the last interglacial period which covered southwest China, while its distribution area decreased for almost 50% during the last glacial maximum. It further contracted during the middle Holocene to a distribution resembling the current pattern. Future modeling showed that the suitable habitats of L. oblata contracted dramatically, and populations were fragmentedly distributed in these areas. As a whole, the distribution of L. oblata showed significant migration northward in latitude but no altitudinal shift. Several mountains in North China may provide future stable climatic areas for L. oblata, particularly, the intersections between the Taihang and Yan mountains. Our study strongly suggested that the endangered montane shrub L. oblata are sensitive to climate change, and the results provide new insights into the conservation of it and other endangered species.

A Cost Benefit Analysis for Distribution of Threatened Species Based on Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Nandhi Kesavan ◽  
Latha K
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Endangered Species ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Species Traits ◽  
Ecological Traits ◽  
Species List ◽  
Critically Endangered Species ◽  
Reptile Species ◽  
The Cost

Abstract Among all the threats to global diversity, climate change is the most severe cause. According to the world’s biodiversity conservation organization, reptile species are affected mostly because the biological and ecological traits of the reptiles are strongly linked with climate. To prevent species extinction, we tried to develop a decision support system that incurs the costs and benefits of reintroducing a taxon from its origin to adapt environmental conditions to conserve it from its extinction. The model was developed by applying multiple linear regressions that take the climatic variables and species traits to determine the cost and benefits for the distribution of species. The effectiveness of the model was evaluated by applying it to the Indian Black Turtle, which is an endangered species list in India evaluated by the International Union for Conservation of Nature list. The model recommends moving the species, which is endangered, to the location where it can save itself from climate change. However, the framework demonstrates huge differences in the estimated significance of climate change, and the model strategy helps to recognize the probable risk of increased revelation to critically endangered species.

scholarly journals Predicting the Suitable Geographical Distribution of Sinadoxa Corydalifolia under Different Climate Change Scenarios in the Three-River Region Using the MaxEnt Model

Plants ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 1015
Author(s):  
Xiaotao Huang ◽  
Li Ma ◽  
Chunbo Chen ◽  
Huakun Zhou ◽  
Buqing Yao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Habitat Destruction ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Co2 Concentrations ◽  
River Region ◽  
Temperature Seasonality

Sinadoxa corydalifolia is a perennial grass with considerable academic value as a rare species owing to habitat destruction and a narrow distribution. However, its distribution remains unclear. In this study, we predicted the distribution of Sinadoxa corydalifolia in the three-river region (the source of the Yangtze River, Yellow River, and Lancang River) under the context of climate change using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. Under the current climate scenario, the suitable distribution mainly occurred in Yushu County and Nangqian County. The suitable distribution area of Sinadoxa corydalifolia covered 3107 km2, accounting for 0.57% of the three-river region. The mean diurnal air temperature range (Bio2), temperature seasonality (Bio4), and mean air temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9) contributed the most to the distribution model for Sinadoxa corydalifolia, with a cumulative contribution of 81.4%. The highest suitability occurred when air temperature seasonality (Bio4) ranged from 6500 to 6900. The highest suitable mean air temperature of the driest quarter ranged from −5 to 0 °C. The highest suitable mean diurnal temperature (Bio2) ranged from 8.9 to 9.7 °C. In future (2041–2060) scenarios, the suitable distribution areas of Sinadoxa corydalifolia from high to low are as follows: representative concentration pathway (RCP)26 (6171 km2) > RCP45 (6017 km2) > RCP80 (4238 km2) > RCP60 (2505 km2). In future (2061–2080) scenarios, the suitable distribution areas of Sinadoxa corydalifolia from high to low are as follows: RCP26 (18,299 km2) > RCP60 (11,977 km2) > RCP45 (10,354 km2) > RCP80 (7539 km2). In general, the suitable distribution will increase in the future. The distribution area of Sinadoxa corydalifolia will generally be larger under low CO2 concentrations than under high CO2 concentrations. This study will facilitate the development of appropriate conservation measures for Sinadoxa corydalifolia in the three-river region.

scholarly journals Prediction of Spatiotemporal Invasive Risk of the Red Import Fire Ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), in China

Insects ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 874
Author(s):  
Jinyue Song ◽  
Hua Zhang ◽  
Ming Li ◽  
Wuhong Han ◽  
Yuxin Yin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Solenopsis Invicta ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Fire Ant ◽  
Invasive Pest ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Suitable Area

The red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), is an invasive pest, and it has spread rapidly all over the world. Predicting the suitable area of S. invicta growth in China will provide a reference that will allow for its invasion to be curbed. In this study, based on the 354 geographical distribution records of S. invicta, combined with 24 environmental factors, the suitable areas of S. invicta growth in China under current (2000s) and future (2030s and 2050s) climate scenarios (SSPs1-2.5s, SSPs2-3.5s and SSPs5-8.5s) were predicted by using the optimized MaxEnt model and geo-detector model. An iterative algorithm and knife-cut test were used to evaluate the important environmental factors that restrict the suitable area under the current climatic conditions. This study also used the response curve to determine the appropriate value of environmental factors to further predict the change and the center of gravity transfer of the suitable area under climate change. The optimized MaxEnt model has high prediction accuracy, and the working curve area (AUC) of the subjects is 0.974. Under climatic conditions, the suitable area is 81.37 × 104 km2 in size and is mainly located in the south and southeast of China. The main environmental factors affecting the suitable area are temperature (Bio1, Bio6, and Bio9), precipitation (Bio12 and Bio14) and NDVI. In future climate change scenarios, the total suitable area will spread to higher latitudes. This distribution will provide an important theoretical basis for relevant departments to rapidly prevent and control the invasion of S. invicta.

scholarly journals Potential effects of climate change on the risk of accidents with poisonous species of the genusTityus (Scorpiones, Buthidae) in Argentina

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Martinez ◽  
Mayane A Andrade ◽  
Claudio Juan Bidau
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Geographic Distribution ◽  
Temporal Pattern ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Buenos Aires Province ◽  
Accident Risk ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Risk Maps ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND: The knowledge of the factors that affect the geographic distribution of species permits us to infer where they can be found. Human beings, through the expansion of their own distribution area and their contribution to climate alteration have modified the geographic distribution of other biological species. As a consequence, the temporal pattern of co-occurrence of human beings and venomous species (scorpions, spiders, snakes) is being modified. Thus, the temporal pattern of areas with risk of accidents with such species tends to become dynamic along time. The aim of this work was to analyze the areas of occurrence of species of Tityus in Argentina and assess the impact of global climate change on their area of distribution constructing risk maps. METHODS: Using data of occurrence of the species and climatic variables, we constructed models of species distribution (SMDs) under current and future conditions. We also created maps that allow the detection of temporal shifts in the distribution patterns of each Tityus species. Finally, we constructed risk maps for the analyzed species. RESULTS: Our results predict that climate change will have an impact on the distribution of Tityus species which will clearly expand to more southern latitudes, with the exception of T. argentinus. T. bahiensis, widely distributed in Brazil, showed a considerable increase of its potential area (ca. 37%) with future climate change. The species T. confluens and T. trivittatus that cause the highest number of accidents in Argentina, showed significant changes of their distributions in future scenarios. The former fact is worrying because Buenos Aires province is the more densely populated federal district in Argentina thus liable to become the one most affected by T. trivittatus. DISCUSSION: Then, these alterations of distributional patterns can lead to amplify the accident risk zones of venomous species, becoming an important subject of concern for public health policies.

scholarly journals Predicting the Potential Distribution of Hylomecon japonica in China under Current and Future Climate Change Based on Maxent Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (20) ◽  
pp. 11253
Author(s):  
Zhen Cao ◽  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Xinxin Zhang ◽  
Zengjun Guo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Jackknife Test ◽  
Maxent Model

Hylomecon japonica is considered a natural medicinal plant with anti-inflammatory, anticancer and antibacterial activity. The assessment of climate change impact on its habitat suitability is important for the wild cultivation and standardized planting of H. japonica. In this study, the maximum entropy model (Maxent) and geographic information system (ArcGIS) were applied to predict the current and future distribution of H. japonica species, and the contributions of variables were evaluated by using the jackknife test. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value confirmed the accuracy of the model prediction based on 102 occurrence records. The predicted potential distributions of H. japonica were mainly concentrated in Jilin, Liaoning, Shaanxi, Chongqing, Henan, Heilongjiang and other provinces (adaptability index > 0.6). The jackknife experiment showed that the precipitation of driest month (40.5%), mean annual temperature (12.4%), the precipitation of wettest quarter (11.6%) and the subclass of soil (9.7%) were the most important factors affecting the potential distribution of H. japonica. In the future, only under the shared socioeconomic Pathway 245 (SSP 245) scenario model in 2061–2080, the suitable habitat area for H. japonica is expected to show a significant upward trend. The area under other scenarios may not increase or decrease significantly.

scholarly journals Ex situ conservation of rare and endangered species in mushroom culture collections of Ukraine

2018 ◽  
Vol 75 (4) ◽  
pp. 338-347 ◽  
Author(s):  
N.A. Bisko ◽  
◽  
M.M. Sukhomlyn ◽  
O.B. Mykhaylova ◽  
M.L. Lomberg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Endangered Species ◽  
Ex Situ Conservation ◽  
Ex Situ ◽  
Culture Collections ◽  
Rare And Endangered Species ◽  
Rare And Endangered ◽  
Mushroom Culture

scholarly journals Range Shift in Response to Climate Change of Chinese Caterpillar Fungus Based on Species Redundancy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Chen ◽  
Yuan Feng ◽  
Wu Kui ◽  
Dai Dong ◽  
Wang Dong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Distribution Pattern ◽  
Host Plants ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Pattern Similarity ◽  
Caterpillar Fungus ◽  
Suitable Area

The presence of the Chinese caterpillar fungus (CCF) depends on the distribution of its host insects and host plants. However, its distribution pattern in response to climate change and interspecific relationships in geographical distribution is unknown. We used the MaxEnt model to obtain areas suitable for the CCF, considering its host insects and host plants under different historical climate backgrounds. We then superimposed and analyzed them to explore the range shift in response to climate change of Chinese caterpillar fungus based on species redundancy. From the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to 2050, the suitable distribution pattern of the CCF is estimated to change from fragmentized to concentrated and connected. The high redundancy area (HRA) continued to increase from the Middle Holocene (MH) to the present and 2050, with an increased area of 31.46×104 km2. The suitable area moved to the northwest and the total movement distance of its average coordinates was about 500 km. The altitude of the suitable area increased continuously from the LGM to the present and to 2050, and the average altitude of HRA increased from 2740.89 m (LGM) to 4246.76 m (2050). The distribution pattern and changes of CCF under different climatic conditions provides a reference for the current and future geographical regional planning for conservation and sustainable utilization. The distribution pattern similarity of the CCF suitable area, suitable area for host insects, and host plants HRA of distribution area, might be the result of their long-term co-evolution. The decreasing trend of CCF yield under human disturbance was not as severe as expected, suggesting that climate change may be beneficial to distribution expansion of the CCF.

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