Potential Suitable Habitat of Two Economically Important Forest Trees (Acer truncatum and Xanthoceras sorbifolium) in East Asia under Current and Future Climate Scenarios

Acer truncatum Bunge and Xanthoceras sorbifolium Bunge are small deciduous trees distributed in East Asia and have high ecological and nutrient value due to their strong environmental adaptability and seed oil abundant in nervonic acid and unsaturated fatty acids. However, their natural distribution remains unclear, which will also be affected by the changing climatic conditions. The main purpose of this study was to map and predict the current and future potential suitable habitats of these two species using MaxEnt based on the presence location of species and environmental variables. The results showed that A. truncatum was more suitable for warm and humid climates and was more durable to climate change compared to X. sorbifolium. Under the current environmental conditions, the suitable habitat of A. truncatum was mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia Plateau, Loess Plateau, Sichuan Basin, Northeast Plain, North China Plain, Korean Peninsula, as well as Japan, with an area of 115.39 × 104 km2. X. sorbifolium was mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia Plateau and Loess Plateau with an area of 146.15 × 104 km2. Under future climate scenarios, the model predicted that higher concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions could result in greater expansion of the potential distribution of both species. Meanwhile, the study also revealed that the two species migrated to the north by east to varying degrees with the change in suitable habitats. This work could provide scientific basis for resource protection and utilization of the two economic forest trees.

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Global distribution of soapberries (Sapindus L.) habitats under current and future climate scenarios

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-98389-8 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Jiming Liu ◽

Lianchun Wang ◽

Caowen Sun ◽

Benye Xi ◽

Doudou Li ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Global Climate ◽

Future Climate ◽

Environmental Data ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Maxent Model ◽

Mean Temperature ◽

Suitable Habitats ◽

Large Scale Cultivation

AbstractSapindus (Sapindus L.) is a widely distributed economically important tree genus that provides biodiesel, biomedical and biochemical products. However, with climate change, deforestation, and economic development, the diversity of Sapindus germplasms may face the risk of destruction. Therefore, utilising historical environmental data and future climate projections from the BCC-CSM2-MR global climate database, we simulated the current and future global distributions of suitable habitats for Sapindus using a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. The estimated ecological thresholds for critical environmental factors were: a minimum temperature of 0–20 °C in the coldest month, soil moisture levels of 40–140 mm, a mean temperature of 2–25 °C in the driest quarter, a mean temperature of 19–28 °C in the wettest quarter, and a soil pH of 5.6–7.6. The total suitable habitat area was 6059.97 × 104 km2, which was unevenly distributed across six continents. As greenhouse gas emissions increased over time, the area of suitable habitats contracted in lower latitudes and expanded in higher latitudes. Consequently, surveys and conservation should be prioritised in southern hemisphere areas which are in danger of becoming unsuitable. In contrast, other areas in northern and central America, China, and India can be used for conservation and large-scale cultivation in the future.

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The relative influence of abiotic and biotic factors on suitable habitat of Old World fruit bats under current and future climate scenarios

Mammalian Biology ◽

10.1016/j.mambio.2019.09.006 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 98 ◽

pp. 188-200

Author(s):

Nikhail Arumoogum ◽

M. Corrie Schoeman ◽

Syd Ramdhani

Keyword(s):

Future Climate ◽

Relative Influence ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Biotic Factors ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Fruit Bats ◽

Old World ◽

Abiotic And Biotic Factors

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Potential Distributions of the Invasive Barnacle Scale Ceroplastes cirripediformis (Hemiptera: Coccidae) Under Climate Change and Implications for Its Management

Journal of Economic Entomology ◽

10.1093/jee/toaa245 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Fang Wang ◽

Duo Wang ◽

Ge Guo ◽

Meixia Zhang ◽

Jiayi Lang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Insect Pest ◽

Distribution Patterns ◽

Scientific Basis ◽

Future Climate ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Global Risk ◽

Mean Temperature

Abstract Ceroplastes cirripediformis Comstock is one of the most destructive invasive pests that have caused various negative impacts to agricultural, ornamental, and greenhouse plants. Since it is time- and labor-consuming to control C. cirripediformis, habitat evaluation of this pest may be the most cost-effective method for predicting its dispersal and avoiding its outbreaks. Here, we evaluated the effects of climatic variables on distribution patterns of C. cirripediformis and produced a global risk map for its outbreak under current and future climate scenarios using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. Our results showed that mean temperature of driest quarter (Bio 9), precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio 19), precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio 18), and mean temperature of wettest quarter (Bio 8) were the main factors influencing the current modeled distribution of C. cirripediformis, respectively, contributing 41.9, 29.4, 18.8, and 7.9%. The models predicted that, globally, potential distribution of C. cirripediformis would be across most zoogeographical regions under both current and future climate scenarios. Moreover, in the future, both the total potential distribution region and its area of highly suitable habitat are expected to expand slightly in all representative concentration pathway scenarios. The information generated from this study will contribute to better identify the impacts of climate change upon C. cirripediformis’s potential distribution while also providing a scientific basis for forecasting insect pest spread and outbreaks. Furthermore, this study serves an early warning for the regions of potential distribution, predicted as highly suitable habitats for this pest, which could promote its prevention and control.

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Water use efficiency evaluation of rainfed maize under future climate scenarios in Loess Plateau

The 2nd International Conference on Information Science and Engineering ◽

10.1109/icise.2010.5688961 ◽

2010 ◽

Author(s):

Yinhong Kang ◽

Xiaoyi Ma ◽

Shahbaz Khan

Keyword(s):

Water Use Efficiency ◽

Water Use ◽

Loess Plateau ◽

Future Climate ◽

Efficiency Evaluation ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Use Efficiency

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Changes in Spatial Distribution of Bryophytes under CMIP6 Future Projections on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

10.21203/rs.3.rs-311954/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Amin Wen ◽

Tonghua Wu ◽

Xiaofan Zhu ◽

Ren Li ◽

Xiaodong Wu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Models ◽

Confusion Matrix ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Ultraviolet B ◽

Future Climate ◽

Tibet Plateau ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Climate Data ◽

Suitable Habitats

Abstract Bryophytes play important roles in ecosystem due to their extensive geographical coverage on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). While there are few studies attributing the potential distribution and landscape changes on the QTP in response to climate change. Based on climate data averaged of nine global climate models (GCMs) for shared socio-economic pathways SSP2-4.5 under current (the years 1970–2000) and future climate scenarios (the years 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, 2081–2100), and other environmental variables, this study has applied the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to assess the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of Bryophytes on the QTP. The key environmental factors which determined Bryophytes’s habitats and range shifts were also examined. The results showed that Bryophytes occupied about 9.12 × 105 km2 (35.43% of total QTP) at present, mainly accumulating in non-permafrost regions of southeast (SE) QTP. Niche suitability of the Bryophytes was dominated by soil moisture, ultraviolet-B radiation seasonality, temperature seasonality and precipitation of the coldest quarter. The occupied habitats of Bryophytes under future climate scenarios generally increased migrating towards Midwest and relatively higher elevation regions of QTP, where dedicated overall surface air warming and moistening, solar dimming. Additionally, the confusion matrix showed that most parts of the gained occupied habitats under future climate scenarios were low suitable habitats, and small parts for high suitable habitats, however reduced for the medium suitable habitats.

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Ensemble Models Predict Invasive Bee Habitat Suitability Will Expand under Future Climate Scenarios in Hawai’i

Insects ◽

10.3390/insects12050443 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (5) ◽

pp. 443

Author(s):

Jesse A. Tabor ◽

Jonathan B. Koch

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Invasive Species ◽

Habitat Suitability ◽

Future Climate ◽

Disease Spread ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Invasive Range ◽

The Impact

Climate change is predicted to increase the risk of biological invasions by increasing the availability of climatically suitable regions for invasive species. Endemic species on oceanic islands are particularly sensitive to the impact of invasive species due to increased competition for shared resources and disease spread. In our study, we used an ensemble of species distribution models (SDM) to predict habitat suitability for invasive bees under current and future climate scenarios in Hawai’i. SDMs projected on the invasive range were better predicted by georeferenced records from the invasive range in comparison to invasive SDMs predicted by records from the native range. SDMs estimated that climatically suitable regions for the eight invasive bees explored in this study will expand by ~934.8% (±3.4% SE). Hotspots for the invasive bees are predicted to expand toward higher elevation regions, although suitable habitat is expected to only progress up to 500 m in elevation in 2070. Given our results, it is unlikely that invasive bees will interact directly with endemic bees found at >500 m in elevation in the future. Management and conservation plans for endemic bees may be improved by understanding how climate change may exacerbate negative interactions between invasive and endemic bee species.

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Predicting the Potential Geographic Distribution and Habitat Suitability of Two Economic Forest Trees on the Loess Plateau, China

Forests ◽

10.3390/f12060747 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (6) ◽

pp. 747

Author(s):

Wei Xu ◽

Jingwei Jin ◽

Jimin Cheng

Keyword(s):

Loess Plateau ◽

Geographic Distribution ◽

Habitat Suitability ◽

Prunus Armeniaca ◽

Forest Trees ◽

The Loess Plateau ◽

Entropy Model ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

Suitable Habitats ◽

Potential Geographic Distribution

The Loess Plateau is one of the most fragile ecosystems in the world. In order to increase the biodiversity in the area, develop sustainable agriculture and increase the income of the local people, we simulated the potential geographic distribution of two economic forest trees (Malus pumila Mill and Prunus armeniaca L.) in the present and future under two climate scenarios, using the maximum entropy model. In this study, the importance and contributions of environmental variables, areas of suitable habitats, changes in habitat suitability, the direction and distance of habitat range shifts, the change ratios for habitat area and land use proportions, were measured. According to our results, bioclimatic variables, topographic variables and soil variables play a significant role in defining the distribution of M. pumila and P. armeniaca. The min temperature of coldest month (bio6) was the most important environmental variable for the distribution of the two economic forest trees. The second most important factors for M. pumila and P. armeniaca were, respectively, the elevation and precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17). At the time of the study, the area of above moderately suitable habitats (AMSH) was 8.7967 × 104 km2 and 11.4631 × 104 km2 for M. pumila and P. armeniaca. The effect of Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5-85 was more dramatic than that of SSP1-26. Between now and the 2090s (SSP 5-85), the AMSH area of M. pumila is expected to decrease to 7.5957 × 104 km2, while that of P. armeniaca will increase to 34.6465 × 104 km2. The suitability of M. pumila decreased dramatically in the south and southeast regions of the Loess Plateau, increased in the middle and west and resulted in a shift in distance in the range of 78.61~190.63 km to the northwest, while P. armeniaca shifted to the northwest by 64.77~139.85 km. This study provides information for future policymaking regarding economic forest trees in the Loess Plateau.

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Predicting the distributions of Pouteria adolfi-friederici and Prunus africana iconic tree species under current and future climate change scenarios in Ethiopia

10.1101/2021.08.12.456155 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Zerihun Tadesse ◽

Sileshi Nemomissa ◽

Debissa Lemessa

Keyword(s):

Tree Species ◽

Future Climate ◽

Evergreen Forest ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Vegetation Types ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Prunus Africana ◽

Dry Evergreen Forest ◽

West Central ◽

Suitable Habitats

The distributions of the potential adaptive ranges of iconic plant species are not yet fully known especially in regions such as Ethiopia where high climatic variability and vegetation types are found. This study was undertaken to predict the distributions of the potential suitable habitats of Pouteria adolfi-friederici and Prunus africana tree species under the current and two future climate scenarios (i.e., RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in 2050 and 2070) using MaxEnt software (version: 3.4.4.). Eleven less correlated environmental variables (r<0.7) were identified and used to make the prediction models. Elevational shifts of the highly suitable habitats, effects of elevation, solar radiation and topographic position in relation to the current and future climatic scenarios on the habitats were statistically analyzed using independent t-test and linear model. Under all climate scenarios, we found a decrease in the proportion of areas of highly suitable habitats for both study species. High potentials of suitable habitats for Pouteria adolfi-friederici are predicted to be confined to southwest, west central and south parts of Ethiopia in fragmented moist afromontane forest patches, while it is in the southwest and west central parts of Ethiopia for Prunus africana . On basis of vegetation types of the country, potential suitable habitats for Pouteria adolfi-friederici are predicted to occur in moist evergreen forest, dry evergreen forest and grassland complex and Combretum-Terminalia woodland vegetation types. Whereas, moist evergreen forest, dry evergreen forest and grassland complex and riverine vegetation types are predicted to comprise potential suitable habitats for Prunus africana, showing considerable spatial dynamics. Overall, our results suggest that the strategies deem to design biodiversity conservation should take into account the dynamics of the suitable niches of different species under different future climate scenarios.

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Global distribution of Sapindus habitats under current and future climate change scenarios

10.21203/rs.3.rs-506226/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Jiming Liu ◽

Lianchun Wang ◽

Caowen Sun ◽

Benye Xi ◽

Doudou Li ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Large Scale ◽

Future Climate ◽

Environmental Data ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Mean Temperature ◽

Suitable Habitats

Abstract Sapindus (Sapindus L.) is a widely distributed economically important tree genus that provides biodiesel, biomedical and biochemical products. However, with climate change, deforestation, and economic development, Sapindus germplasm resources have been lost. Therefore, utilising historical environmental data and future climate projections from the BCC-CSM2-MR global climate database, we simulated the present and future global distributions of suitable habitats for Sapindus using a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. The estimated ecological thresholds for critical environmental factors were: a minimum temperature of 0–20°C in the coldest month, soil moisture levels of 40–140 mm, a mean temperature of 2–25°C in the driest quarter, a mean temperature of 19–28°C in the wettest quarter, and a soil pH of 5.6–7.6. The total suitable habitat area was 6059.97 × 104 km2, which was unevenly distributed across six continents. As greenhouse gas emissions increased over time, the area of suitable habitats contracted in lower latitudes and expanded in higher latitudes. Consequently, surveys and conservation should be prioritised in southern hemisphere areas which are in danger of becoming unsuitable. In contrast, other areas in northern and central America, China, and India can be used for conservation and large-scale cultivation in the future.

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