scholarly journals Characterizing Spatial and Temporal Variability of Lightning Activity Associated with Wildfire over Tasmania, Australia

Fire ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Haleh Nampak ◽  
Peter Love ◽  
Paul Fox-Hughes ◽  
Christopher Watson ◽  
Jagannath Aryal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tracking System ◽  
Fire Detection ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Effective Response ◽  
Ignition Point ◽  
Lightning Strikes ◽  
Using Data ◽  
One Year

Lightning strikes are pervasive, however, their distributions vary both spatially and in time, resulting in a complex pattern of lightning-ignited wildfires. Over the last decades, lightning-ignited wildfires have become an increasing threat in south-east Australia. Lightning in combination with drought conditions preceding the fire season can increase probability of sustained ignitions. In this study, we investigate spatial and seasonal patterns in cloud-to-ground lightning strikes in the island state of Tasmania using data from the Global Position and Tracking System (GPATS) for the period January 2011 to June 2019. The annual number of lightning strikes and the ratio of negative to positive lightning (78:22 overall) were considerably different from one year to the next. There was an average of 80 lightning days per year, however, 50% of lightning strikes were concentrated over just four days. Most lightning strikes were observed in the west and north of the state consistent with topography and wind patterns. We searched the whole population of lightning strikes for those most likely to cause wildfires up to 72 h before fire detection and within 10 km of the ignition point derived from in situ fire ignition records. Only 70% of lightning ignitions were matched up with lightning records. The lightning ignition efficiency per stroke/flash was also estimated, showing an annual average efficiency of 0.24% ignition per lightning stroke with a seasonal maximum during summer. The lightning ignition efficiency as a function of different fuel types also highlighted the role of buttongrass moorland (0.39%) in wildfire incidents across Tasmania. Understanding lightning climatology provides vital information about lightning characteristics that influence the probability that an individual stroke causes ignition over a particular landscape. This research provides fire agencies with valuable information to minimize the potential impacts of lightning-induced wildfires through early detection and effective response.

scholarly journals Humidifier Disinfectant Consumption and Humidifier Disinfectant-Associated Lung Injury in South Korea: A Nationwide Population-Based Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 6136
Author(s):  
Jeonggyo Yoon ◽  
Minsun Kang ◽  
Jaehun Jung ◽  
Min Jae Ju ◽  
Sung Hwan Jeong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Insurance ◽  
Lung Injury ◽  
National Health Insurance ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Population Based Study ◽  
Annual Consumption ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Water Tanks ◽  
Biocidal Product

Humidifier disinfectant (HD) is a household biocidal product used in humidifier water tanks to prevent the growth of microorganisms. In 2011, a series of lung injury cases of unknown causes emerged in children and pregnant women who had used HD in Korea. This study investigated changes in the nationwide number of cases of humidifier disinfectant-associated lung injury (HDLI) in concordance with nationwide HD consumption using data covering the entire Korean population. More than 25 kinds of HD products were sold between 1994 and 2011. The number of diagnosed HDLI, assessed by S27.3 (other injuries of lungs) of the Korea National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) data, sharply increased by 2005, subsequently decreased after 2005, and almost disappeared after 2011 in concordance with the annual number of HD sales. The number of self-reported HDLIs, assessed using data from all suspected HDLI cases registered in the Korea Ministry of Environment, changed with the annual number of HD sales, with a delay pattern, potentially induced by the late awareness of lung injury diseases. The present study suggests that changes in the nationwide annual consumption of HD products were consistent with changes in the annual number of HDLI cases in Korea.

scholarly journals Center-Based Child Care and Differential Improvements in the Child Development Outcomes of Disadvantaged Children

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Anne Reynolds
Keyword(s):  
Child Care ◽  
Child Development ◽  
Economic Status ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Additional Time ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Development Outcomes ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Research finds center-based child care typically benefits children of low socio-economic status (SES) but few studies have examined if it also reduces inequalities in developmental disadvantage. Objective I test if the length of time in center-based care between ages one and three years associates with child development scores at age three years, focusing on the impact for groups of children in the lower tercile of child development scores and in the lower SES tercile. Method Using data from 1,606 children collected in a nationally representative Chilean survey, I apply a value-added approach to measure gains in child development scores between age one and three years that are associated with length of time in center-based child care. Results Disadvantages at age one year were associated with lower child development scores at age three years. No benefits of additional time in center-based care were found for the non-disadvantaged group, but positive associations were found between more time in center-based care and child development outcomes for children with the SES disadvantage only. Center-based care was not associated with child development trajectories of children with lower child development scores at age one year, no matter their SES status. Conclusions There is evidence that Chilean center-based child care reduces SES inequality in child development scores between ages one and three years, but only if children already were not low-scorers at age one year.

Data-driven tools for assessing and combating COVID-19 outbreaks in Brazil based on analytics and statistical methods

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Data Analytics ◽  
Exploratory Data Analysis ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Healthcare Systems ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Effective Response ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Exploratory Data ◽  
Using Data

The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the worst public health crises in Brazil and the world that has ever been faced. One of the main challenges that the healthcare systems have when decision-making is that the protocols tested in other epidemics do not guarantee success in controlling the spread of COVID-19, given its complexity. In this context, an effective response to guide the competent authorities in adopting public policies to fight COVID-19 depends on thoughtful analysis and effective data visualization, ideally based on different data sources. In this paper, we discuss and provide tools that can be helpful using data analytics to respond to the COVID-19 outbreak in Recife, Brazil. We use exploratory data analysis and inferential study to determine the trend changes in COVID-19 cases and their effective or instantaneous reproduction numbers. According to the data obtained of confirmed COVID-19 cases disaggregated at a regional level in this zone, we note a heterogeneous spread in most megaregions in Recife, Brazil. When incorporating quarantines decreed, effectiveness is detected in the regions. Our results indicate that the measures have effectively curbed the spread of the disease in Recife, Brazil. However, other factors can cause the effective reproduction number to not be within the expected ranges, which must be further studied.

scholarly journals Aerosol optical depth in the European Brewer Network

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javier López-Solano ◽  
Alberto Redondas ◽  
Thomas Carlund ◽  
Juan J. Rodriguez-Franco ◽  
Henri Diémoz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Aerosol Optical Depth ◽  
Optical Depth ◽  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Ultraviolet Range ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Better Than

Abstract. The high spatial and temporal variability of aerosols make networks capable of measuring their properties in near real time of high scientific interest. In this work we present and discuss results of an aerosol optical depth algorithm to be used in the European Brewer Network, which provides data in near real time of more than 30 spectrophotometers located from Tamanrasset (Algeria) to Kangerlussuaq (Greenland). Using data from the Brewer Intercomparison Campaigns in the years 2013 and 2015, and the period in between, plus comparisons with Cimel sunphotometers and UVPFR instruments, we check the precision, stability, and uncertainty of the Brewer AOD in the ultraviolet range from 300 to 320 nm. Our results show a precision better than 0.01, an uncertainty of less than 0.05, and a stability similar to that of the ozone measurements for well-maintained instruments. We also discuss future improvements to our algorithm with respect to the input data, their processing, and the characterization of the Brewer instruments for the measurement of aerosols.

scholarly journals Historical variation and trends in storminess along the Portuguese South Coast

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 2407-2417 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. P. Almeida ◽  
Ó. Ferreira ◽  
M. I. Vousdoukas ◽  
G. Dodet
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Linear Increase ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
The North ◽  
Storm Wave ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Historical Variation ◽  
Storm Characteristics ◽  
South Portugal

Abstract. This work investigates historical variation and trends in storm climate for the South Portugal region, using data from wave buoy measurements and from modelling, for the period 1952 to 2009. Several storm parameters (annual number of storms; annual number of days with storms; annual maximum and mean individual storm duration and annual 99.8th percentile of significant wave height) were used to analyse: (1) historical storminess trends; (2) storm parameter variability and relationships; and (3) historical storminess and its relationship to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). No statistically significant linear increase or decrease was found in any of the storm parameters over the period of interest. The main pattern of storm characteristics and extreme wave heights is an oscillatory variability with intensity peaks every 7–8 yr, and the magnitude of recent variations is comparable with that of variations observed in the earlier parts of the record. In addition, the results reveal that the NAO index is able to explain only a small percentage of the variation in storm wave height, suggesting that more local factors may be of importance in controlling storminess in this region.

scholarly journals Parameterization of ion-induced nucleation rates based on ambient observations

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 21697-21720 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Nieminen ◽  
P. Paasonen ◽  
H. E. Manninen ◽  
V.-M. Kerminen ◽  
M. Kulmala
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Formation Rate ◽  
Global Radiation ◽  
Atmospheric Models ◽  
Organic Vapor ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
Using Data ◽  
One Year ◽  
Project Data ◽  
Semi Empirical

Abstract. Atmospheric ions participate in the formation of new atmospheric aerosol particles, yet their exact role in this process has remained unclear. Here we derive a new simple parameterization for ion-induced nucleation or, more precisely, for the formation rate of charged 2-nm particles. The parameterization is semi-empirical in the sense that it is based on comprehensive results of one-year-long atmospheric cluster and particle measurements in the size range ∼1–42 nm within the EUCAARI (European Integrated project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality interactions) project. Data from 12 field sites across Europe measured with different types of air ion and cluster mobility spectrometers were used in our analysis, with more in-depth analysis made using data from four stations with concomitant sulphuric acid measurements. The parameterization was given in two slightly different forms: a more accurate one that requires information on sulfuric acid and nucleating organic vapor concentrations, and a simpler one in which this information is replaced with the global radiation intensity. In principle, these new parameterizations are applicable to all large-scale atmospheric models containing size-resolved aerosol microphysics.

scholarly journals Vegetation responses to season of fire in an aseasonal, fire-prone fynbos shrubland

PeerJ ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. e3591 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tineke Kraaij ◽  
Richard M. Cowling ◽  
Brian W. van Wilgen ◽  
Diba R. Rikhotso ◽  
Mark Difford
Keyword(s):  
Floristic Composition ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Summer Drought ◽  
Winter Rainfall ◽  
Recruitment Success ◽  
Floral Diversity ◽  
Four Seasons ◽  
Different Seasons ◽  
Varied Response ◽  
One Year

Season of fire has marked effects on floristic composition in fire-prone Mediterranean-climate shrublands. In these winter-rainfall systems, summer-autumn fires lead to optimal recruitment of overstorey proteoid shrubs (non-sprouting, slow-maturing, serotinous Proteaceae) which are important to the conservation of floral diversity. We explored whether fire season has similar effects on early establishment of five proteoid species in the eastern coastal part of the Cape Floral Kingdom (South Africa) where rainfall occurs year-round and where weather conducive to fire and the actual incidence of fire are largely aseasonal. We surveyed recruitment success (ratio of post-fire recruits to pre-fire parents) of proteoids after fires in different seasons. We also planted proteoid seeds into exclosures, designed to prevent predation by small mammals and birds, in cleared (intended to simulate fire) fynbos shrublands at different sites in each of four seasons and monitored their germination and survival to one year post-planting (hereafter termed ‘recruitment’). Factors (in decreasing order of importance) affecting recruitment success in the post-fire surveys were species, pre-fire parent density, post-fire age of the vegetation at the time of assessment, and fire season, whereas rainfall (for six months post-fire) and fire return interval (>7 years) had little effect. In the seed-planting experiment, germination occurred during the cooler months and mostly within two months of planting, except for summer-plantings, which took 2–3 months longer to germinate. Although recruitment success differed significantly among planting seasons, sites and species, significant interactions occurred among the experimental factors. In both the post-fire surveys and seed planting experiment, recruitment success in relation to fire- or planting season varied greatly within and among species and sites. Results of these two datasets were furthermore inconsistent, suggesting that proteoid recruitment responses are not related to the season of fire. Germination appeared less rainfall-dependent than in winter-rainfall shrublands, suggesting that summer drought-avoiding dormancy is limited and has less influence on variation in recruitment success among fire seasons. The varied response of proteoid recruitment to fire season (or its simulation) implies that burning does not have to be restricted to particular seasons in eastern coastal fynbos, affording more flexibility for fire management than in shrublands associated with winter rainfall.

scholarly journals The evolution of COVID-19 pandemic wave and optimal levels of vaccination to reduce negative effects in society

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario Coccia
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Optimal Level ◽  
Viral Agent ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Effective Response ◽  
Constant State ◽  
Pandemic Threat ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Innovative Drugs ◽  
Pandemic Wave

Abstract Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a pandemic threat with new mutations of the viral agent (SARS-CoV 2) that are generating a constant state of attention in manifold countries. Innovative drugs, such as vaccines can sustain, as far as possible, immunity of people and decrease negative effects in society. The study here, using data of vaccines and confirmed cases of COVID-19 between countries from March to May 2021, clarifies different optimal levels of vaccination associated with the growth of pandemic wave for reducing infected individuals in society. Findings reveal that a vaccination campaign in the initial phase of pandemic wave has a lower optimal level of doses administered per 100 inhabitants, but the growth of pandemic wave moves up the optimal level of vaccines from 58.5 in March to more than 86 doses per 100 people in May 2021. This study suggests that the optimal strategy and response to pandemic crisis is a rapid vaccination rollout, before the takeoff of pandemic wave, for an effective response to reduce numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals and deaths and negative effects of pandemic crisis on environment and socioeconomic systems.

scholarly journals Spatial and temporal variability in the ratio of trace gases emitted from biomass burning

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 3611-3629 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. T. van Leeuwen ◽  
G. R. van der Werf
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Field Measurement ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Trace Gases ◽  
Measurement Techniques ◽  
Arithmetic Mean ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Fire Emissions

Abstract. Fires are a major source of trace gases and aerosols to the atmosphere. The amount of biomass burned is becoming better known, most importantly due to improved burned area datasets and a better representation of fuel consumption. The spatial and temporal variability in the partitioning of biomass burned into emitted trace gases and aerosols, however, has received relatively little attention. To convert estimates of biomass burned to trace gas and aerosol emissions, most studies have used emission ratios (or emission factors (EFs)) based on the arithmetic mean of field measurement outcomes, stratified by biome. However, EFs vary substantially in time and space, even within a single biome. In addition, it is unknown whether the available field measurement locations provide a representative sample for the various biomes. Here we used the available body of EF literature in combination with satellite-derived information on vegetation characteristics and climatic conditions to better understand the spatio-temporal variability in EFs. While focusing on CO, CH4, and CO2, our findings are also applicable to other trace gases and aerosols. We explored relations between EFs and different measurements of environmental variables that may correlate with part of the variability in EFs (tree cover density, vegetation greenness, temperature, precipitation, and the length of the dry season). Although reasonable correlations were found for specific case studies, correlations based on the full suite of available measurements were lower and explained about 33%, 38%, 19%, and 34% of the variability for respectively CO, CH4, CO2, and the Modified Combustion Efficiency (MCE). This may be partly due to uncertainties in the environmental variables, differences in measurement techniques for EFs, assumptions on the ratio between flaming and smoldering combustion, and incomplete information on the location and timing of EF measurements. We derived new mean EFs, using the relative importance of each measurement location with regard to fire emissions. These weighted averages were relatively similar to the arithmetic mean. When using relations between the environmental variables and EFs to extrapolate to regional and global scales, we found substantial differences, with for savannas 13% and 22% higher CO and CH4 EFs than the arithmetic mean of the field studies, possibly linked to an underrepresentation of woodland fires in EF measurement locations. We argue that from a global modeling perspective, future measurement campaigns could be more beneficial if measurements are made over the full fire season, and if relations between ambient conditions and EFs receive more attention.

Optimizing Waveform Descriptors and Pupillometry of the Pupillary Light Reflex Using Data Acquired from Video-Based Eye Trackers

2018 ◽  
Vol 62 (1) ◽  
pp. 1291-1295
Author(s):  
Terence L. Tyson ◽  
Patrick F. Cravalho
Keyword(s):  
Time Constant ◽  
Complex Dynamics ◽  
Tracking System ◽  
Pupillary Light Reflex ◽  
Light Reflex ◽  
Pupillary Light ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Single Exponential ◽  
The Ideal

Previous models of the pupillary light reflex (PLR) provided a compelling narrative to the complex dynamics of pupil oscillations. However, simple descriptors, such as the time constant obtained from curve fits of a single exponential decay, can provide easily interpretable insights into the dynamics of the PLR. To optimize these time constant estimates and improve the overall quality of the pupillometric data, the ideal eye-tracking system should implement pupillary curve-fitted algorithms that are robust against occlusion artifacts and provide the most accurate centroid approximation.

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