scholarly journals A Novel Predictor for Micro-Scale COVID-19 Risk Modeling: An Empirical Study from a Spatiotemporal Perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (24) ◽  
pp. 13294
Author(s):  
Sui Zhang ◽  
Minghao Wang ◽  
Zhao Yang ◽  
Baolei Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Spatial Dimension ◽  
Health Care Facilities ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
Prediction Ability ◽  
Micro Scale ◽  
Contact Frequency

Risk assessments for COVID-19 are the basis for formulating prevention and control strategies, especially at the micro scale. In a previous risk assessment model, various “densities” were regarded as the decisive driving factors of COVID-19 in the spatial dimension (population density, facility density, trajectory density, etc.). However, this conclusion ignored the fact that the “densities” were actually an abstract reflection of the “contact” frequency, which is a more essential determinant of epidemic transmission and lacked any means of corresponding quantitative correction. In this study, based on the facility density (FD), which has often been used in traditional research, a novel micro-scale COVID-19 risk predictor, facility attractiveness (FA, which has a better ability to reflect “contact” frequency), was proposed for improving the gravity model in combination with the differences in regional population density and mobility levels of an age-hierarchical population. An empirical analysis based on spatiotemporal modeling was carried out using geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) in the Qingdao metropolitan area during the first wave of the pandemic. The spatiotemporally nonstationary relationships between facility density (attractiveness) and micro-risk of COVID-19 were revealed in the modeling results. The new predictors showed that residential areas and health-care facilities had more reasonable impacts than traditional “densities”. Compared with the model constructed using FDs (0.5159), the global prediction ability (adjusted R2) of the FA model (0.5694) was increased by 10.4%. The improvement in the local-scale prediction ability was more significant, especially in high-risk areas (rate: 107.2%) and densely populated areas (rate in Shinan District: 64.4%; rate in Shibei District: 57.8%) during the outset period. It was proven that the optimized predictors were more suitable for use in spatiotemporal infection risk modeling in the initial stage of regional epidemics than traditional predictors. These findings can provide methodological references and model-optimized ideas for future micro-scale spatiotemporal infection modeling.

scholarly journals Social relations and self-rated health in a multi-ethnic social housing area undergoing demolition

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
M F Kvorning ◽  
A Srivarathan ◽  
S Nygaard ◽  
R Lund
Keyword(s):  
Social Relations ◽  
Social Housing ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Ethnically Diverse ◽  
Political Agenda ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
Self Rated Health ◽  
Housing Area ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Contact Frequency

Abstract Background During the coming years, selected social housing areas in Denmark will undergo large structural changes as part of a political agenda. Previous studies on the effects of such interventions are inconclusive. Residential areas are important for the development of social relations and health. The aim of this study was to explore the associations between social relations and self-rated health (SRH) and the interaction with country of origin in an ethnically diverse social housing area undergoing demolition, and compare results with the municipality. Methods Data include multilingual interviewer driven surveys with residents aged 45+ years before demolition began in 2018 (N = 209) and during the demolition in 2019 (N = 132), and a health survey on municipality level (N = 1638). Information on social relations include contact frequency with and support from family, friends and neighbors. SRH was dichotomized into high/low. Descriptive and multivariate logistic regression analyses adjusted for age, sex and Western/non-Western origin are presented. Results In cross-sectional analyses from 2018, low contact frequency and low support increased the risk of low SRH, OR = 1.44 (0.63-3.29) and OR = 1.23 (0.62-2.48), especially when also having non-Western origin compared to having high contact frequency or support and Western origin, OR = 6.27 (1.80-21.84) and OR = 4.43 (1.68-11.69), respectively. The same association was seen in 2019 and on municipality level. Low contact frequency in 2018 was associated with higher risk of developing or maintaining low SRH in 2019 compared to the group with high contact frequency in 2018 in longitudinal analyses, OR = 3.04 (0.91-10.91). Conclusions Poor social relations increased the risk of low SRH, especially when also having non-Western origin. Having poor social relations before the demolition was associated with an increased risk of developing or maintaining low SRH during the demolition in an ethnically diverse social housing area. Key messages Having low contact frequency before area demolition in a social housing area in Denmark increased the risk of developing or maintaining low self-rated health after demolition had begun. Having poor social relations and non-Western origin is associated with a strong increased risk of low self-rated health in a deprived ethnic diverse social housing area in Denmark.

scholarly journals Impact of cover change of land use on flood vulnerability in Jiangsu province

2021 ◽  
Vol 308 ◽  
pp. 01004
Author(s):  
Shuangchen Du ◽  
Zichuan Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Jiangsu Province ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Urban Systems ◽  
Gis Technology ◽  
Flood Vulnerability ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Flood Disasters

In the context of global warming and rising sea levels, as urbanization continues to increase, the risk situation of urban systems facing floods has become more severe. Therefore, we constructed a vulnerability assessment model for urban flood disasters in Jiangsu Province, focusing on using GIS technology to classify the land use of each city in Jiangsu Province for supervised learning. We also established a flood disaster vulnerability model to evaluate the Vulnerability of 13 cities in Jiangsu Province. Evaluation and analysis of the changes in land use vulnerability use flood disasters in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2020. The results show that from 2000 to 2020, the Vulnerability to flooding disasters is on the rise as a whole. Yancheng has the lowest average Vulnerability to flooding disasters due to the low population density and high greening rate in the built-up area. On the other hand, Nantong City has the most heightened average flood vulnerability due to excessive population density. The low greening rate in built-up areas has led to a worsening of flood vulnerability. Suggestions have been made to reduce the Vulnerability of urban floods in Jiangsu Province, such as vigorously developing the local economy, reasonably adjusting the rate of urbanization, and building drainage infrastructure.

A combined approach for flood hazard assessment using hydrological, hydraulic and GIS modeling case study of El Hamiz Wadi, Algeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Nadir Louchahi ◽  
Ali Hadjiedj ◽  
Nesrine Hameidia
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Hydraulic Modeling ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
Gis Modeling ◽  
Flood Hazard Assessment ◽  
Mapping Techniques ◽  
Urban Concentration

Flood hazard is one of the most destructive natural phenomena causing a significant material damage and human losses in Algeria during the past decade. The aim of this study is to assess and characterize the flood hazard in El Hamiz watershed (Algeria). In addition, this study identifies areas and elements prone to this hazard to minimize the damages and losses. The methodology used in the present study is based on a combination of hydrological and hydraulic modeling using the Hec-Ras software and mapping techniques using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The flood hazard assessment model of El Hamiz wadi using different hydrological (rainfall / runoff transfer and return period), hydraulic (water level and flow velocity) and exposure (land use data and socio-economic data) parameters revealed that the downstream part of the studied area is the most susceptible to flood events. The mapping of flood-prone areas indicated the extent of this phenomena on the El Hamiz wadi banks, especially through heavy submersion of residential areas characterized by a high urban concentration including inhabitants, activities and infrastructures.

Temporal Changes in the Suburban Avifauna of an Inland City

1981 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 109 ◽  
Author(s):  
DN Jones
Keyword(s):  
Species Diversity ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Native Species ◽  
Bird Community ◽  
Linear Increase ◽  
Residential Area ◽  
Wagga Wagga ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
House Sparrows ◽  
The Individual

The suburban bird community of Wagga Wagga, N.S.W., was surveyed during December 1978-January 1979 and May 1979, at nine sites selected to cover all ages of residential areas from predevelopment to oldest suburbs and to demonstrate how the bird community will change with time in response to changing habitat. Non-residential sites were also sampled. Sites were censused by foot transect. House sparrows which were present in all sites, were the first species to colonize new residential areas and made up over 95% of the individual count of four sites Of native species, 40% were found in undeveloped sites only. The population density of undeveloped sites was only half that of developed sites, but the greatest species diversity was found in undeveloped sites and the lowest in the most altered sites. There was strong evidence for a steady linear increase in numbers of individuals, numbers of species, biomass and population density with increasing age of residential area, reaching a peak at about 30 years.

scholarly journals Conscious Abstinence from Smokeless Tobacco Evokes Higher Withdrawal Response and Impairs Cognitive Performance Independent of Sympathetic Response

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-39
Author(s):  
Kalpana Kumari Barhwal ◽  
Sujwal Boppana ◽  
Vivek Vashishtha ◽  
Sushil Chandra Mahapatra
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Performance ◽  
Sex Education ◽  
Smokeless Tobacco ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Tobacco Consumption ◽  
Withdrawal Symptoms ◽  
High Morbidity ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
Sympathetic Response ◽  
Oral Cancers

Introduction: High consumption of smokeless tobacco in adult Indian population increases the risk of developing oral cancers leading to high morbidity and mortality. Though the influence of abstinence from smoking on cognitive performance has been widely studied, the effect of smokeless tobacco on cognitive performance and its association with withdrawal symptoms is less understood. This study comparatively investigates the effect of short-term conscious abstinence and distraction during abstinence from smokeless tobacco consumption on the craving, withdrawal symptoms, sympathetic response, and cognitive performance in tobacco addicts. Methods: Age, sex, education and socioeconomic status matched control ( N = 15) and smokeless tobacco addicts ( N = 60) were recruited from residential areas in Bhubaneswar for the study. Following randomization of the addicts, conscious abstinence ( N = 30) was induced by informed abstinence from tobacco consumption for 8 hours, while distracted cessation ( N = 30) was induced by involving the participants in a cognitively engaging task for 8 hours during uninformed tobacco abstinence. Results: The results of the study show higher withdrawal symptoms and reduced cognitive performance in volunteers with conscious abstinence which was positively correlated. The decreased cognitive performance in conscious cessation was independent of tobacco-induced increase in the LF:HF ratio and cotinine concentration in saliva. Conclusion: While conscious abstinence results in higher withdrawal symptoms, distraction during abstinence lowers these symptoms. Inclusion of distraction sessions during cessation can, therefore, be a new element in tobacco control strategies.

scholarly journals An Assessment Model for Rating High-Threat Crop Pathogens

2006 ◽  
Vol 96 (6) ◽  
pp. 616-621 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. W. Schaad ◽  
J. Abrams ◽  
L. V. Madden ◽  
R. D. Frederick ◽  
D. G. Luster ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Threat Assessment ◽  
The United States ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Detection Methods ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Rating Model ◽  
And Control ◽  
High Threat

Natural, accidental, and deliberate introductions of nonindigenous crop pathogens have become increasingly recognized as threats to the U.S. economy. Given the large number of pathogens that could be introduced, development of rapid detection methods and control strategies for every potential agent would be extremely difficult and costly. Thus, to ensure the most effective direction of resources a list of high-threat pathogens is needed. We address development of a pathogen threat assessment model based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) that can be applied world-wide, using the United States as an illustrative example. Previously, the AHP has been shown to work well for strategic planning and risk assessment. Using the collective knowledge of subject matter expert panels incorporated into commercial decision-making software, 17 biological and economic criteria were determined and given weights for assessing the threat of accidental or deliberately introduced pathogens. The rating model can be applied by experts on particular crops to develop threat lists, especially those of high priority, based on the current knowledge of individual diseases.

scholarly journals Measuring Walkability for More Liveable and Sustainable Cities: The Case of Mersin City Centre

2021 ◽  
pp. 51-68
Author(s):  
Müge Akkar Ercan ◽  
Züleyha Sara Belge
Keyword(s):  
Urban Design ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
City Centre ◽  
Sustainable Cities ◽  
Design Strategies ◽  
Micro Scale ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Planning And Design ◽  
Macro Scale ◽  
Historic City

Walkability is of rising importance in planning and design circles. In Turkey and the world, it is increasingly recognized as an urban strategy to create healthy societies within sustainable and ‘liveable’ cities. Despite this interest, the extent to which Turkish cities are walkable remains questionable. Defining the performative features of walkability, this research offers a micro- scale walkability assessment model with eight qualitative and quantitative factors of urban design. Describing the model with its factors, this article first presents a research methodology, then explores the walkability level of the historic city centre of Mersin, specifically Ataturk and Uray Streets (AUS). Finally, it discusses the major planning and design strategies that can improve walkability and liveability level of the historic city centre of Mersin, and underlines the contributions the model can make to current planning practice with reference to inclusive, human-centred and flexible design approaches. The research concludes that a sensitive qualitative and quantitative assessment of walkability is necessary to identify the walkability level of urban space. Additionally, it suggests that a comprehensive, integrated, and multi-dimensional planning and design approach regarding micro-scale, meso-scale and macro-scale is required to develop holistic and integrated urban design strategies to achieve walkable, liveable and sustainable cities.

scholarly journals BIOLOGI DAN TRANSFORMASI BELALANG KEMBARA LOCUSTA MIGRATORIA MANILENSIS MEYEN (ORTHOPTERA: ACRIDIDAE) PADA BEBERAPA TINGKAT KEPADATAN POPULASI DI LABORATORIUM

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-31
Author(s):  
Hamim Sudarsono ◽  
Rosma Hasibuan ◽  
Damayanti Buchori
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Insect Pests ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Locusta Migratoria ◽  
Feeding Activity ◽  
Laboratory Population ◽  
Migratory Locust ◽  
Green House ◽  
Cage Size ◽  
Locusta Migratoria Manilensis

Biology and Transformation of the Migratory Locust Locusta migratoria manilensis Meyen (Orthoptera: Acrididae) at Several Laboratory Population Density Levels.  The migratory locust, Locusta migratoria manilensis Meyen (Orthoptera: Acrididae) is one of insect pests in Indonesia that undergoes a unique polymorphic biology.  The locust develops a transformation phase which is triggered mainly by high population density.  Its recent outbreaks in several regions of Indonesia cause major concern and control strategies must be developed to strengthen control efforts in the future. Its unique polymorphic phenomenon, therefore, must be investigated thoroughly for the basis of management of the outbreak.  Due to its agility and its long range flying ability, the most realistic technique to study behavioral and morphological change of the locust is in controlled condition at a laboratory or a green house facility. The experiment was aimed to study effects of colony densities on the biology and transformation process of the migratory locust.  More specifically, the experiment was to study effects of population density on the feeding activity, mortality rate, and the ratio of F/C and E/F of the migratory locust L. migratoria manilensis.  The population densities were simulated in colonies at 2, 5, 10, 20, dan 30 couples per cage (cage size: 45x45x90 cm) reared in a green house. Results of the experiment show that, in general, higher densities of the migratory locust colonies tended to feed more rigorously than those of the less dense colonies.  The locust remained in solitary phase at the density of 2-5 couples per cage whereas the transient phase occured at the density of 10-20 couples per cage.  The colonies transformed to gregarious stage when their densities were 30 couples per cage or higher.  Mortality percentage tended to be higher at colonies with higher density, especially for the third instar of the migratory locust. 

scholarly journals HUBUNGAN KERAPATAN PENDUDUK DENGAN KEANEKARAGAMAN TANAMAN BUAH PEKARANGAN DI KECAMATAN GODEAN, KABUPATEN SLEMAN, YOGYAKARTA (Relationship between Population Density and Diversity of Yard Fruit Plants in Godean Sub-District, Sleman District, Yogyakarta)

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 50
Author(s):  
Fransisca Kiki Fajarwati ◽  
Suwarno Hadisusanto ◽  
Hartono Hartono
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
Community Adaptation ◽  
Green Areas ◽  
Fruit Plants ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The City ◽  
Productive Landscapes ◽  
Research Period

AbstrakTanaman buah sangat besar manfaatnya bagi manusia dan lingkungan hidup antara lain berperan untuk menjaga kawasan hijau di kawasan hunian, namun keberadaannya di pekarangan saat ini teracam karena meningkatnya alih fungsi lahan dari pekarangan menjadi lahan terbangun untuk tempat tinggal seiring dengan pertambahan jumlah manusia. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah menganalisis persebaran kerapatan penduduk, keanekaragaman tanaman buah, hubungan kerapatan penduduk dengan keanekaragaman tanaman buah, adaptasi masyarakat dalam melestarikan tanaman buah dan pekarangan dan menyusun usulan pelestarian tanaman buah dan pekarangan di Kecamatan Godean, Kabupaten Sleman. Metode yang digunakan adalah observasi dan memanfaatkan data sekunder dengan periode waktu penelitian selama sepuluh bulan. Hasil yang diperoleh adalah kerapatan penduduk di Kecamatan Godean semakin ke bagian timur (mendekati Kota Yogyakarta) memiliki angka semakin tinggi. Semakin rapat penduduk maka semakin rendah indeks keanekaragaman dan kemerataan, semakin tinggi indeks dominansi, semakin sedikit jumlah jenis tanaman buah yang ditemukan, dan semakin sedikit kawasan hijau di kawasan hunian. Lokasi dengan kerapatan penduduk semakin tinggi terjadi adaptasi pelestarian tanaman buah dan pekarangan yang mendukung konsep lanskap produktif. Usulan pelestarian tanaman buah dan pekarangan disusun dengan mempertahankan usaha pemerintah dan warga yang dirasa efektif, memperbaiki atau menghilangkan yang kurang efektif dan menyusun usulan baru dengan harapan agar tetap dapat menjaga lingkungan hidup dengan menjaga kawasan hijau di kawasan hunian berdasarkan permasalahan yang ditemukan di lapangan.AbstractFruit plants are very beneficial for human and environment, including their role is protecting green areas in residential areas, but their presence in the yard today is threatened because the increasing conversion of land functions from yard to building for shelter along with the increase in the number of people. The purpose of this study is to analyze the distribution of population density, the relationship between population density and diversity of fruit plants, community adaptation to conserve fruit plants and yard, and to give the recommendation for fruit plants and yard conservation in Godean Sub-District, Sleman District. The methods used are observation and utilizing secondary data with a research period of ten months. The study found that the population density in eastern part of Godean District (approaching the City of Yogyakarta) had higher numbers. The higher population density is, the lower diversity and evenness index, the higher the dominance index, the fewer the number of fruit plants found, and the less green areas in residential areas. Locations with higher population densities are adapted to conserve the fruit plants and yard. These findings support the concept of productive landscapes. Recommendation for fruit plants and yard conservation was compiled by maintaining goverment and citizen efforts that are felt to be effective, repairing or eliminating ones that are less effective and making new recommendation with the hope that it can protect the environment by protecting green areas in residential areas based on problems found in the field.

scholarly journals Fused Ultrasound And Electromyography-Driven Neuromuscular Model To Improve Plantarflexion Moment Prediction Across Walking Speeds

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang Zhang ◽  
Natalie Fragnito ◽  
Jason R. Franz ◽  
Nitin Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Muscle Activation ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Muscle Thickness ◽  
Semg Signal ◽  
Prediction Ability ◽  
Imaging Results ◽  
Speed Mode ◽  
Neurological Injuries ◽  
Walking Speeds

Abstract Background: Improving the prediction ability of a human-machine interface (HMI) is critical to accomplish a bio-inspired or model-based control strategy for rehabilitation interventions, which are of increased interest to assist limb function post neurological injuries. A fundamental role of the HMI is to accurately predict human intent by mapping signals from a mechanical sensor or surface electromyography (sEMG) sensor. These sensors are limited to measuring the resulting limb force or movement or the neural signal evoking the force. As the intermediate mapping in the HMI also depends on muscle contractility, a motivation exists to include architectural features of the muscle as surrogates of dynamic muscle movement, thus further improving the HMI's prediction accuracy. Objective: The purpose of this study is to investigate a non-invasive sEMG and ultrasound (US) imaging-driven Hill-type neuromuscular model (HNM) for net ankle joint plantarflexion moment prediction. We hypothesize that the fusion of signals from sEMG and US imaging results in a more accurate net plantarflexion moment prediction than sole sEMG or US imaging. Methods: Ten young non-disabled participants walked on a treadmill at speeds of 0.50, 0.75, 1.00, 1.25, and 1.50 m/s. The proposed HNM consists of two muscle-tendon units. The muscle activation for each unit was calculated as a weighted summation of the normalized sEMG signal and normalized muscle thickness signal from US imaging. The HNM calibration was performed under both single-speed mode and inter-speed mode, and then the calibrated HNM was validated across all walking speeds. Results: On average, the normalized moment prediction root mean square error was reduced by 14.58 % (p = 0.012) and 36.79 % (p < 0.001) with the proposed HNM when compared to sEMG-driven and US imaging-driven HNMs, respectively. Also, the calibrated models with data from the inter-speed mode were more robust than those from single-speed modes for the moment prediction.Conclusions: The proposed sEMG-US imaging-driven HNM can significantly improve the net plantarflexion moment prediction accuracy across multiple walking speeds. The findings imply that the proposed HNM can be potentially used in bio-inspired control strategies for rehabilitative devices due to its superior prediction.

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