scholarly journals Using Geospatial Analysis and Hydrologic Modeling to Estimate Climate Change Impacts on Nitrogen Export: Case Study for a Forest and Pasture Dominated Watershed in North Carolina

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (7) ◽  
pp. 280 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md Alam ◽  
Mehmet Ercan ◽  
Faria Zahura ◽  
Jonathan Goodall
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Carolina ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Inorganic Nitrogen ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Nitrogen Loading ◽  
Nitrogen Export

Many watersheds are currently experiencing streamflow and water quality related problems that are caused by excess nitrogen. Given that weather is a major driver of nitrogen transport through watersheds, the objective of this study was to predict climate change impacts on streamflow and nitrogen export. A forest and pasture dominated watershed in North Carolina Piedmont region was used as the study area. A physically-based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model parameterized using geospatial data layers and spatially downscaled temperature and precipitation estimates from eight different General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used for this study. While temperature change predictions are fairly consistent across the GCMs for the study watershed, there is significant variability in precipitation change predictions across the GCMs, and this leads to uncertainty in the future conditions within the watershed. However, when the downscaled GCM projections were taken as a model ensemble, the results suggest that both high and low emission scenarios would result in an average increase in streamflow of 14.1% and 12.5%, respectively, and a decrease in the inorganic nitrogen export by 12.1% and 8.5%, respectively, by the end of the century. The results also show clear seasonal patterns with streamflow and nitrogen loading both increasing in fall and winter months by 97.8% and 50.8%, respectively, and decreasing by 20.2% and 35.5%, respectively, in spring and summer months by the end of the century.

Hydrologic response to climate change: a case study for the Be River Catchment, Vietnam

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 207-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Tadashi Suetsugi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
Calibration And Validation ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

The Be River Catchment was studied to quantify the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow using a multi-model ensemble approach. Climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) were developed from an ensemble of four GCMs (general circulation models) (CGCM3.1 (T63), CM2.0, CM2.1 and HadCM3) that showed good performance for the Be River Catchment through statistical evaluations between 15 GCM control simulations and the corresponding time series of observations at annual and monthly levels. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to investigate the impact on streamflow under climate change scenarios. The model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model was able to simulate the streamflow well, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency exceeding 0.78 for the Phuoc Long station and 0.65 for the Phuoc Hoa station, for both calibration and validation at daily and monthly steps. Their differences in simulating the streamflow under future climate scenarios were also investigated. The results indicate a 1.0–2.9 °C increase in annual temperature and a −4.0 to 0.7% change in annual precipitation corresponding to a change in streamflow of −6.0 to −0.4%. Large decreases in precipitation and runoff are observed in the dry season.

scholarly journals Assessment of Ecological and Hydro-Geomorphological Alterations under Climate Change Using SWAT and IAHRIS in the Eo River in Northern Spain

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1745
Author(s):  
Julio Pérez-Sánchez ◽  
Javier Senent-Aparicio ◽  
Carolina Martínez Santa-María ◽  
Adrián López-Ballesteros
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Efficiency Coefficient ◽  
Northern Spain

Magnitude and temporal variability of streamflow is essential for natural biodiversity and the stability of aquatic environments. In this study, a comparative analysis between historical data (1971–2013) and future climate change scenarios (2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099) of the hydrological regime in the Eo river, in the north of Spain, is carried out in order to assess the ecological and hydro-geomorphological risks over the short-, medium- and long-term. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied on a daily basis to assess climate-induced hydrological changes in the river under five general circulation models and two representative concentration pathways. Statistical results, both in calibration (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE): 0.73, percent bias (PBIAS): 3.52, R2: 0.74) and validation (NSE: 0.62, PBIAS: 6.62, R2: 0.65), are indicative of the SWAT model’s good performance. The ten climate scenarios pointed out a reduction in rainfall (up to −22%) and an increase in temperatures, both maximum (from +1 to +7 °C) and minimum ones (from +1 to +4 °C). Predicted flow rates resulted in an incrementally greater decrease the longer the term is, varying between −5% (in short-term) and −53% (in long-term). The free software IAHRIS (Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration in Rivers) determined that alteration for usual values remains between excellent and good status and from good to moderate in drought values, but flood values showed a deficient regime in most scenarios, which implies an instability of river morphology, a progressive reduction in the section of the river and an advance of aging of riparian habitat, endangering the renewal of the species.

scholarly journals Climate change impact on meteorological droughts in watershed scale (case study: southwestern Iran)

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alireza Nikbakht Shahbazi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Spring Precipitation ◽  
Data Simulation ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel

Drought is one of the major natural disasters in the world which has a lot of social and economic impacts. There are various factors that affect climate changes; the investigation of this incident is also sensitive. Climate scenarios of future climate change studies and investigation of efficient methods for investigating these events on drought should be assumed. This study intends to investigate climate change impacts on drought in Karoon3 watershed in the future. For this purpose, the atmospheric general circulation models (GCM) data under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios should be investigated. In this study, watershed drought under climate change impacts will be simulated in future periods (2011 to 2099). In this research standard precipitation index (SPI) was calculated using mean monthly precipitation data in Karoon3 watershed. SPI was calculated in 6, 12 and 24 months periods. Statistical analysis on daily precipitation and minimum and maximum daily temperature was performed. To determine the feasibility of future periods meteorological data production of LRAS-WG5 model, calibration and verification was performed for the base year (1980-2007). Meteorological data simulation for future periods under General Circulation Models and climate change IPCC scenarios was performed and then the drought status using SPI under climate change effects analyzed. Results showed that differences between monthly maximum and minimum temperature will decrease under climate change and spring precipitation shall increase while summer and autumn rainfall shall decrease. The most increase of precipitation will take place in winter and in December. Normal and wet SPI category is more frequent in B1 and A2 emissions scenarios than A1B. Wet years increases in the study area during 2011-2030 period and the more continuous drought years gradually increases during 2046-2065 period, the more severe and frequent drought will occur during the 2080-2099 period.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on nutrient loads in the Yorkshire Ouse catchment (UK)

2002 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 197-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Bouraoui ◽  
L. Galbiati ◽  
G. Bidoglio
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Nutrient Loads ◽  
Nitrogen And Phosphorus ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This study assessed the impact of potential climate change on the nutrient loads to surface and sub-surface waters from agricultural areas and was conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The study focused on a 3500 km2 catchment located in northern England, the Yorkshire Ouse. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated using sets of five years' measurements of nitrate and ortho-phosphorus concentrations and water flow. To increase the reliability of the hydrological model predictions, an uncertainty analysis was conducted by perturbing input parameters using a Monte-Carlo technique. The SWAT model was then run using a baseline scenario corresponding to an actual measured time series of daily temperature and precipitation, and six climate change scenarios. Because of the increase in temperature, all climate scenarios introduced an increase of actual evapotranspiration. Faster crop growth and an increased nutrient uptake resulted, as did an increase of annual losses of total nitrogen and phosphorus, however, with strong seasonal differences. Keywords: SWAT model, climate change, nutrient loads

Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Corn Yield in the U.S. Using a Crop Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 60 (6) ◽  
pp. 2123-2136
Author(s):  
Kenichi Tatsumi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Crop Model ◽  
Corn Yield ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Growing Conditions ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The U.S

Abstract. A detailed analysis was conducted of the effects of climate change and increased carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations on corn yield in the U.S. with a crop model using outputs from multiple general circulation models (multi-GCMs). Corn yield was simulated for 1999-2010, for the 2050s (average for 2041-2060), and for the 2070s (average for 2061-2080) under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) climate scenario. Results indicated a shortening of the growing period (GP), decreased water use efficiency (WUE) in almost all regions, and increased evapotranspiration (ET) during GP in almost all regions except for the southern U.S. Using multi-GCMs, the simulations under the RCP8.5 scenario resulted in negative effects of climate change on yield in almost all regions during both future periods. Especially strong negative impacts were reported south of latitude 40° N due to less optimal growing conditions. On the other hand, there were relatively smaller negative impacts in high-latitude regions (approximately north of latitude 40° N) due to more optimal growing conditions because of larger temperature changes compared to low-latitude and mid-latitude regions. Higher CO2 concentrations have the potential to increase corn yield. CO2 effects resulted in an approximately 0.04% to 0.05% increase in yield per 1 ppm increase in CO2 concentration under the RCP8.5 scenario, but the negative impacts of increased temperatures fully outweighed the CO2-fertilization effects. Keywords: Climate change impacts, CO2 effects, Corn yield, Multiple GCMs, Uncertainty.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on hydrology in the Dak B’la watershed, Central Highland Vietnam based on SWAT model

2020 ◽  
pp. 22-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Kim Loi ◽  
Vo Ngoc Quynh Tram ◽  
Nguyen Thi Tinh Au
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
High Reliability ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Agricultural Watershed ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Central Highland ◽  
Average Water

Climate is the main factor affecting hydrology in a watershed. For purely agricultural watershed, hydrological assessment and management play a very important role in the region's agricultural development. In this study, the hydrological was simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. This paper aimed to calibrate and validate the SWAT model in Dak B’la watershed in Central Highland Vietnam and assess the climate change on water discharge. The coefficient of determination (R²) and Nash-Sutcliffe index (NSI), and Percent BIAS (PBIAS) during the calibration process was 0.75, 0.72, and -1.15 respectively and validation process was 0.82, 0.83, 3.67 respectively. It proved the high reliability of the SWAT model after calibration. The two climate scenarios were selected in this investigation: scenario A is the existing climate using the data from 2001 to 2018 and scenario B is the A1B emission scenario for the future period from 2020 to 2069. Compared to the average water discharge from 2001-2018 and average water discharge from 2020 to 2069, the results indicated that climate change increases the average water discharge (0.55%), especially in 2050, the water discharge in the flood season (in November) is 584 m3/s, which higher than the largest flood in 2009 of 450 m3/s.

scholarly journals Assessment of MC&MCMC uncertainty analysis frameworks on SWAT model by focusing on future runoff prediction in a mountainous watershed via CMIP5 models

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1811-1828
Author(s):  
Armin Ahmadi ◽  
Amirhosein Aghakhani Afshar ◽  
Vahid Nourani ◽  
Mohsen Pourreza-Bilondi ◽  
A. A. Besalatpour
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Runoff Simulation ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The river situation in a dry or semi-dry area is extremely affected by climate change and precipitation patterns. In this study, the impact of climate alteration on runoff in Kashafrood River Basin (KRB) in Iran was investigated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in historical and three future period times. The runoff was studied by MIROC-ESM and GFDL-ESM2G models as the outputs of general circulation models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) by two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM-ZS) was used to calibrate the hydrological model parameters in different sub-basins. Using DREAM-ZS algorithm, realistic values were obtained for the parameters related to runoff simulation in the SWAT model. In this area, results show that runoff in GFDL-ESM2G in both RCPs (2.6 and 8.5) in comparing future periods with the historical period is increased about 232–383% and in MIROC-ESM tends to increase around 87–292%. Furthermore, GFDL-ESM2G compared to MIROC-ESM in RCP2.6 (RCP8.5) in near, intermediate, and far future periods shows that the value of runoff increases 59.6% (23.0%), 100.2% (35.1%), and 42.5% (65.3%), respectively.

An Improved Daily Weather Generator for the Assessment of Regional Climate Change Impacts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Reza Khazaei ◽  
Mehraveh Hasirchian ◽  
Bagher Zahabiyoun
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Weather Generator ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Monthly Precipitation

Abstract Weather Generators (WGs) are one of the major downscaling tools for assessing regional climate change impacts. However, some deficiencies in the performance of WGs have limited their usage. This paper presents a method for correcting the low-frequency variability (LFV) of precipitation in the Improved Weather Generator (IWG) model. The method is based on bias correction in the monthly precipitation distribution of the generated daily series. The performance of the modified model was tested directly by comparing the statistics of generated and observed weather data for 14 stations, and also indirectly by comparing the characteristics of simulated stream-flows of a basin from the simulations run based on generated and observed weather data. The results showed that the method not only corrected the LFV of precipitation but also improved the reproduction of many other statistics. The provided IWG2 model can serve as a useful tool for the downscaling of General Circulation Models (GCMs) scenarios to assess regional climate change impacts, especially hydrological effects.

Climate change variability assessment on water resources by SWAT model: A Review

2021 ◽  
pp. 246-268
Author(s):  
Amit Raj ◽  
M.Siva Kumar ◽  
Satish Kumar ◽  
H.P. Singh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Renewable Resource ◽  
Base Flow ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Geographical Regions

Water is a renewable resource for the Sustaining Ecosystem. Rapid industrialization and population impacts the climate. The imbalance of Climate changes over various geographical regions affects the hydrological and morphological behaviour of water resources. The Water balances of the system are analysed via the SWAT Model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). By simulating and predicting future hydrological behaviour with different scenarios using many climatological models. Using weather data and predicting future hydrological outputs such as Runoff, Temperature, Base flow, groundwater flow, AET etc. in 21st century. Model is calibrated and validated using statistical methods. Results of various modelling Researches in field of SWAT and their major findings are discussed in this review paper. The future Scope of SWAT modelling and its Applications are also recommended. Forty papers are discussed in tabular form with their results and their future improvements were concluded. This paper fulfills a need for precise and quick reviews of recent researches in field of SWAT modelling with climate change on water resources. This will help researchers, academician’s insights into precise climate change impacts on water resources in 21st Century. Necessary steps to be adopted for their successful extreme repercussions of climate change and measures adopted for managing the severe damages to our Ecosystem with sustainable development goals in new millennium are discussed.

scholarly journals Potential evapotranspiration method influence on climate change impacts on river flow: a mid-latitude case study

2016 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
pp. 951-963 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. P. Koedyk ◽  
D. G. Kingston
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Projected Changes

Projected changes in 21st century climate are likely to impact water resources substantially, although much uncertainty remains as to the nature of such impacts. A relatively under-explored source of uncertainty is the method by which current and scenario evapotranspiration (ET) are estimated. Using the Waikaia River (New Zealand) as a case study, the influence of a potential ET (PET) method is investigated for a scenario of a 2°C increase in global mean temperature (the presumed threshold of ‘dangerous’ climate change). Six PET methods are investigated, with five general circulation models (GCMs) used to provide an indication of GCM uncertainty. The HBV-Light hydrological model is used to simulate river runoff. Uncertainty in scenario PET between methods is generally greater than between GCMs, but the reverse is found for runoff. The cause of the reduction in uncertainty from PET to runoff is unclear: the catchment is not water-limited during the summer half-year, indicating that it is not because of actual ET failing to reach the potential rate. Irrespective of the cause, these results stand in contrast to previous estimations of relatively high sensitivity of runoff projections to PET methods, indicating that further work is required to understand the controls on this source of uncertainty.

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