scholarly journals Adaptation Becoming Business as Usual: A Framework for Climate-Change-Ready Transport Infrastructure

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Quinn ◽  
Emma Ferranti ◽  
Simon Hodgkinson ◽  
Anson Jack ◽  
John Beckford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Business As Usual

scholarly journals Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States

Science ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 356 (6345) ◽  
pp. 1362-1369 ◽  
Author(s):  
Solomon Hsiang ◽  
Robert Kopp ◽  
Amir Jina ◽  
James Rising ◽  
Michael Delgado ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
The United States ◽  
Process Models ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Flexible Architecture ◽  
Econometric Analyses ◽  
Business As Usual

Estimates of climate change damage are central to the design of climate policies. Here, we develop a flexible architecture for computing damages that integrates climate science, econometric analyses, and process models. We use this approach to construct spatially explicit, probabilistic, and empirically derived estimates of economic damage in the United States from climate change. The combined value of market and nonmarket damage across analyzed sectors—agriculture, crime, coastal storms, energy, human mortality, and labor—increases quadratically in global mean temperature, costing roughly 1.2% of gross domestic product per +1°C on average. Importantly, risk is distributed unequally across locations, generating a large transfer of value northward and westward that increases economic inequality. By the late 21st century, the poorest third of counties are projected to experience damages between 2 and 20% of county income (90% chance) under business-as-usual emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5).

Systematic exploration of scenario spaces

foresight ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrik Carlsen ◽  
E. Anders Eriksson ◽  
Karl Henrik Dreborg ◽  
Bengt Johansson ◽  
Örjan Bodin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Generating Sets ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Systematic Exploration ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Business As Usual

Purpose – Scenarios have become a vital methodological approach in business as well as in public policy. When scenarios are used to guide analysis and decision-making, the aim is typically robustness and in this context we argue that two main problems at scenario set level is conservatism, i.e. all scenarios are close to a perceived business-as-usual trajectory and lack of balance in the sense of arbitrarily mixing some conservative and some extreme scenarios. The purpose of this paper is to address these shortcomings by proposing a methodology for generating sets of scenarios which are in a mathematical sense maximally diverse. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, we develop a systematic methodology, Scenario Diversity Analysis (SDA), which addresses the problems of broad span vs conservatism and imbalance. From a given set of variables with associated states, SDA generates scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best span the whole set of feasible scenarios. Findings – The usefulness of the methodology is exemplified by applying it to sets of storylines of the emissions scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This ex-post analysis shows that the storylines were not maximally diverse and given the challenges ahead with regard to emissions reduction and adaptation planning, we argue that it is important to strive for diversity when developing scenario sets for climate change research. Originality/value – The proposed methodology adds significant novel features to the field of systematic scenario generation, especially with regard to scenario diversity. The methodology also enables the combination of systematics with the distinct future logics of good intuitive logics scenarios.

scholarly journals Demographic determinants of energy consumption in the European Union: Econometric analysis results

Stanovnistvo ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Predrag Petrovic ◽  
Goran Nikolic ◽  
Ivana Ostojic
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Senior Citizens ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Human Society

Over the past several decades there has been a strong intensifying trend of human society impact on ecosystems, consumption of natural resources and global change. The environmental impact of the society is fully apparent and dominantly implemented through various greenhouse gases emissions (GHG), leading towards global climate change with considerably spread harmful effects. Global climate change includes the earth and ocean surface and atmospheric warming, but also melting of snow and ice, increase of sea levels and ocean acidity, as well as ever more common natural phenomena extremes (winds, various forms of rainfall/precipitation, extremely low or high temperatures, etc.). Scientists are well-familiarized with the fact that use of fossil fuels, such as oil derivatives and coal, is the main generator of harmful gases. In addition, possible substitutions for fossil fuels in the form of other energy sources are very limited, and it should be remembered that other energy sources also have certain adverse environmental effects. Bearing in mind climate change caused by products of fossil fuels combustion, as well as inevitable depletion of natural crude oil resources, management of growing global energy demand becomes one of the key goals and challenges of 21st century. If these reasons are coupled with obligations emanating from Kyoto Protocol, it is clear that attention of researches should be more than reasonably focused on the main determinants of energy consumption. This study is focused on illumination of key demographic and economic determinants of energy consumption in 28 EU member states in the period 1960- 2014. The results obtained demonstrate that population positively and quite strongly influence total energy consumption. An increase of population of 1% will result in an increase of energy consumption of 1.59% to 1.76%. Such relation most probably can be explained by the fact that demographic growth of the society aggravates and complicates planning processes of efficient energy consumption, diminishing the ability of society to be energy efficient. The population effect of persons aged 65 and above to energy consumption is also positive. An increase in share of this age group of 1% will result in an increase in energy consumption of approximately 0.43%. Positive elasticity coefficient should be understood as a proof that European societies with higher share of senior citizens consume more energy that societies with higher share of younger population, not necessarily as an argument that senior citizens use more energy than younger population. The explanation for such nature of a cause-andeffect relation could be that high share of senior citizens influences the structure of production and consumption, spatial distribution of population, transport infrastructure and social services provided. A significant influence on energy consumption in the EU is made by the level of economic development of countries, which is in accordance with the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), suggesting a relation of inverted letter ?U?. The amount of income per capita needed to have the EKC expressed ranges between 54,183 and 81,552 dollars.

Exposure of urban infrastructure because of climate change-induced flood: lesson from municipal level planning in Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 107-125
Author(s):  
Md. Mostafizur Rahman ◽  
Ishrat Islam
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Master Plan ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Exposure Analysis ◽  
Socioeconomic System ◽  
Flood Exposure ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Municipal Level

Purpose Bangladesh is one of the most flood-prone countries in the world. A number of research works have identified that the flood scenario will be aggravated with climate change context in Bangladesh. In 2014, Bangladesh had prepared municipal level master plan for 222 municipalities with a view to planned urban development. But climate change-induced flood has not been considered in master plan, which poses a question toward the sustainability of the plan. Ullapara Municipality of Sirajganj district has been selected to conduct the research. This study aims to evaluate how infrastructure in proposed master plan will be exposed to climate change-induced flood. Design/methodology/approach The methodology of this study follows geographic information system (GIS)-based flood exposure analysis of selected infrastructure. These infrastructures include transport infrastructure, educational infrastructure, health infrastructure and other urban facilities. Climate change-induced flood for the year 2040 has been used for flood exposure analysis. Findings It is evident from the flood exposure analysis that about 33.99% roads will be exposed to 1.5 m–2 m inundation level; seven primary school, six secondary school and four colleges would be highly exposed to 2.0 m–2.50 m inundation level; four health facilities would be exposed to 1.0 m–2.0 m inundation level because of future climate change. This inundation scenario for long duration will lead to dysfunction of concerned infrastructure and, in turn, undermine the stability of a socioeconomic system of Ullapara Municipality. Originality/value As the master plan is not fully implemented till now, there is scope for intervention for considering climate change-induced flood to make the plan sustainable.

scholarly journals Investigating the Effects of Pluvial Flooding and Climate Change on Traffic Flows in Barcelona and Bristol

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 2330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barry Evans ◽  
Albert S. Chen ◽  
Slobodan Djordjević ◽  
James Webber ◽  
Andoni González Gómez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Traffic Flows ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Two Cities ◽  
Pluvial Flooding ◽  
Flooding Events ◽  
Business As Usual

This paper outlines the work carried out within the RESCCUE (RESilience to cope with Climate Change in Urban ArEas) project that is, in part, examining the impacts of climate-driven hazards on critical services and infrastructures within cities. In this paper, we examined the methods employed to assess the impacts of pluvial flooding events for varying return periods for present-day (Baseline) and future Climate Change with no adaptation measures applied (Business as Usual) conditions on traffic flows within cities. Two cities were selected, Barcelona and Bristol, with the former using a meso-scale and the latter a micro-scale traffic model. The results show how as the severity of flooding increases the disruption/impacts on traffic flows increase and how the effects of climate change will increase these impacts accordingly.

Approach to Risk Management for the Hydrocarbon-Transport Infrastructure With Regard to Climate Change

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dario Zapata Posada ◽  
Jaime Hernán Aristizábal Ceballos ◽  
Julián Fernando Chaves Agudelo ◽  
Milton Eduardo Pardo Romero
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
National Development ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Hydrocarbon Transport

Planet Earth has recently witnessed a change in the behavior of climate variables (including temperature, rainfall, etc.), primarily attributed to global warming. This climate change is a threat that is materializing and has affected elements of the infrastructure, ecosystems, and environmental conditions worldwide, as well as the National Development Plans [“Planes Nacionales de Desarrollo”]. The hydrocarbon-transport infrastructure in Colombia has not escaped the effects of climate variability. Therefore, a strategy must be devised to manage the risk and to adapt these systems in the light of potential harmful effects, and also to supplement or improve the mitigation measures for the effects generated by the oil industry through its operations. Climate disturbances lead to an increase in the likelihood of landslides, wildfires, floods, avalanches, and other natural hazards. The major climate changes that have been identified and that may affect hydrocarbon-transfer systems in Colombia are the following ones: • A gradual increase in temperature. • Changes in the patterns and amounts of rainfall. • A rise in sea level. • An increase in the severity and frequency of extreme weather events. The strategy for adapting the hydrocarbon-transport systems in light of climate change focuses primarily on the following points: 1. Acquiring more knowledge about the climatic changes that are expected to occur in Colombia, including the change in the major climatic variables and their georeferencing. 2. Diagnosing the transport systems and their spatial correlation with future climate scenarios. 3. Identifying the industries or elements of the infrastructure that are most vulnerable to the expected climatic changes. 4. Proposing measures that will add strength and/or resilience, so that the elements of the system can resist the effects of climate change, or overcome them within a short period of time, without affecting the Business. 5. Prioritizing the interventions to be performed at sites that are critical to the Business. 6. Monitoring and tracking the climatic variables in order to adjust the susceptibility models in light of the major impacts (e.g., landslides). The primary goal of this paper is to outline the initiative that has been proposed by the Technical Asset Management Bureau [“Gerencia Técnica de Activos”] (GTA) of Ecopetrol’s Office of the Vice President for Transportation and Logistics [“Vicepresidencia de Transporte y Logística”] (VIT Ecopetrol) in order to adapt the currently operating transport systems so that they can deal with climate change, while ensuring their healthful and safe operation, in compliance with the applicable technical legal requirements. Another goal of this paper is to highlight the advances that have been made by the GTA in the procurement, compilation, analysis, and use of climate information and geotechnical data as basic elements of risk management.

scholarly journals Climate sensitivity of the ice cap of King George Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica

1996 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
pp. 154-159 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wouter H. Knap ◽  
Johannes Oerlemans ◽  
Martin Cabée
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Shetland Islands ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
King George Island ◽  
Shetland Islands ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Ice Cap ◽  
Current State ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
Business As Usual

A two-dimensional vertically integrated ice-flow model has been used to simulate the current state of the ice cap of King George Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctica, as well as the sensitivity of this state to climate change. The model was forced by an energy-balance model that generates the specific mass balance from climatological input data of two research stations. It proved difficult to simulate-satisfactorily the entire geometry of the present-day ice cap. Nevertheless, it was possible to simulate a steady-state ice cap whose volume and areal extent approximate the (estimated) current situation. Several experiments have indicated that this state is highly sensitive to climate change. The model predicts that cooling by 1 K will increase the ice volume by 10% and warming by 1 K will decrease it by 36%. A 10% change in precipitation will alter the ice volume by less than 8%. Application of the IPCC-90 Business-as-Usual scenario leads to a 55% reduction in the ice volume by the year AD 2100, compared to the present-day situation. The response of the ice cap to warming is therefore totally different from the response of the main Antarctic ice sheet which is believed to gain mass by increasing temperatures.

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