scholarly journals Use of Probabilistic Approaches to Predict Cash Deficits

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (24) ◽  
pp. 3309
Author(s):  
Ilya Slobodnyak ◽  
Anatoly Sidorov ◽  
Denis Alekseev
Keyword(s):  
Economic System ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Distribution Density ◽  
System State ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
Internal Factors ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Aggregated Data ◽  
Distribution Density Function ◽  
Proposed Model

This article deals with issues related to the use of mathematical methods of cash deficit probability predictions. A number of objective and subjective factors are described that prevent the wide integration of mathematical methods in the practical activities of economists. It is justified that, due to the large number of external and internal factors affecting the economic system state, the values of indicators of an economic system state are often random. The possibility of using probability theory methods to predict the occurrence of cash deficits is proved. Using empirical data including the results of thousands of observations, the possibility of using the normal distribution density function for the purpose of predicting insufficient funds for payment is illustrated. The essence of the proposed model is that it contains a prediction of a macrotrend—i.e., the risk of a cash gap—based on high-frequency microlevel data. At the same time, a prediction of the probability of a cash deficit, and not its estimation for a specific date, was made. This is the main difference between the described model and common scoring estimates. This article proposes an approach to estimate the probability of a cash deficit based on data from a specific business entity, rather than aggregated data from other organizations.

THE NATIONAL SECURITY SYSTEM

2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (6) ◽  
pp. 1849-1854
Author(s):  
Marin Petkov
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Functional State ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Science And Technology ◽  
Security System ◽  
Scientific Article ◽  
Moral Code ◽  
Internal Factors ◽  
Factors Affecting

The rapid development of science and technology has led to the emergence of a crisis in society. Science "pushes" religion, but does not offer a new moral code in its place. The definitions of "security" are almost as many and as controversial as postmodernism. For the purposes of this study, however, it will be sufficient to define security as "the functional state of a system that provides for the neutralization and counteraction of external and internal factors affecting or potentially damaging the system." This scientific article presents a study, which seeks to answer the question why the paradigm "security" is so important in the postmodern society, what are the roots of its influence and meaning, and to seek conclusions and guidelines for its increase.

The methodology of experimental research of the feed components extrusion process in order to improve its energy performance

2020 ◽  
pp. 147-152
Author(s):  
E. M. Ratnikov ◽  
D. O. Milko
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Energy Performance ◽  
Extrusion Process ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
Screw Extruder ◽  
Mathematical Planning ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Extrusion Processing ◽  
Definition Of

Annotation Purpose. Development of a program and methods for conducting experimental studies of the extrusion process with the definition of parameters and modes of operation of the extruder to improve its energy performance. Methods. Methods of mathematical statistics, synthesis, analysis, description and modeling were used. Results. The application of mathematical methods, in particular mathematical planning, reduces the number of experiments several times, and allows to evaluate the role of influencing factors, obtain a mathematical model of the process and determine the optimal conditions for its parameters and modes, etc. Conclusions. The methodology for experimental studies of a screw extruder is presented with the necessary equipment and methodology for processing the obtained experimental data. A mathematical method of planning, which reduces the number of experiments several times, allows us to evaluate the role of factors affecting productivity and energy intensity is presented. Keywords: extruder, auger, nutrients, research methodology, extrusion, processing, feed.

scholarly journals Internal Factors Affecting the Surface Rumpling of a β-NiAlHf Coating

Coatings ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 436
Author(s):  
Liang Liu ◽  
Jian He ◽  
Yaoge Dong ◽  
Hongbo Guo
Keyword(s):  
Physical Vapor Deposition ◽  
Elevated Temperatures ◽  
Coefficient Of Thermal Expansion ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Cyclic Loads ◽  
Internal Factor ◽  
Internal Factors ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Mismatch Stress ◽  
Thermal Mismatch Stress

β-NiAl coatings on a superalloy substrate will inevitably result in severe rumpling at elevated temperatures; however, the associated rumpling mechanisms are not completely understood. The scale rumpling behavior of a β-NiAlHf coating deposited by electron beam physical vapor deposition (EB-PVD) on single crystal superalloy IC21 was investigated in this work. Some internal factors, including the mismatch in the coefficient of thermal expansion and the stress induced by the growth of oxide scale and the phase transformation, were taken into consideration. The thermal mismatch stress between the coating and substrate was the main internal factor responsible for rumpling behavior during thermal cyclic loads, while the phase degradation from β-NiAl to γ’-Ni3Al in the coating played a dominant role during static thermal loads.

Identification of Iwan distribution density function in frictional contacts

2014 ◽  
Vol 333 (15) ◽  
pp. 3382-3393 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid Ahmadian ◽  
Majid Rajaei
Keyword(s):  
Density Function ◽  
Distribution Density ◽  
Frictional Contacts ◽  
Distribution Density Function

scholarly journals A simple model for the estimation of the number of fatalities due to floods in central Europe

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 1663-1676 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Brazdova ◽  
J. Riha
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Pairwise Comparison ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Hazard Exposure ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
River Floods ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Human Losses ◽  
Significant Factors

Abstract. In this paper a model for the estimation of the number of potential fatalities is proposed based on data from 19 past floods in central Europe. First, the factors contributing to human losses during river floods are listed and assigned to the main risk factors: hazard – exposure – vulnerability. The order of significance of individual factors has been compiled by pairwise comparison based on experience with real flood events. A comparison with factors used in existing models for the estimation of fatalities during floods shows good agreement with the significant factors identified in this study. The most significant factors affecting the number of human losses in floods have been aggregated into three groups and subjected to correlation analysis. A close-fitting regression dependence is proposed for the estimation of loss of life and calibrated using data from selected real floods in central Europe. The application of the proposed model for the estimation of fatalities due to river floods is shown via a flood risk assessment for the locality of Krnov in the Czech Republic.

scholarly journals Environmental Risks: Doing Business In China

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jack Ethridge ◽  
Treba Marsh ◽  
Esther Bunn
Keyword(s):  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Risk Process ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Environmental Risks ◽  
Internal Factors ◽  
Audit Risk ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Doing Business ◽  
Business In China

Planning and conducting the audit of financial statements involves understanding the entity and the environment in which it operates.  First and foremost this requires identifying the risks faced by the entity.  Identifying these risks can be a complex and difficult task since the auditor needs to not only understand the entity’s risk process but also independently understand the risks facing the firm.  Tackling this task will involve a comprehensive review of the external and internal factors affecting the business.  It is possible many identified business risks are related to financial reporting risk and ultimately to audit risk.  Therefore, the auditor must understand the linkage between risks, controls and the audit.  The objective of this paper is to examine the risks faced by U.S. companies conducting business in China.  This paper attempts to identify a wide array of risks faced by U.S. companies to demonstrate how important it is for the company and the auditor to understand the business environment.

scholarly journals Impact of external factors on quality financial reporting: The case of Vietnam

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-70
Author(s):  
Thuan Quoc Pham ◽  
Dao Xuan La
Keyword(s):  
Financial Reporting ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Internal Factors ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
Accounting Software ◽  
Major Factors ◽  
Pressure Factor ◽  
Independent Audit

The objective of this study is to identify the major factors that impact on the quality of financial reporting and to suggest model of the factors affecting on the quality of financial reporting for Vietnamese enterprises . There are two factors group affecting on the quality of financial reporting: internal factors and external factors, this study is limited to the scope of the external factors. By using case studies, analytical results indicate that Tax Pressure factor has the greatest impact on the quality of financial reporting, the remaning factors include: Listed Securities, Accounting Software and Independent Audit. Two factors, Politics and Regulatory Environment have limited impact on the quality financial reporting.

scholarly journals Assessment of the Extent and Causes of Fuelwood Collection in the Surrounding Communities of Kasewe Reserved Forest, Sierra Leone

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (7) ◽  
pp. 1271-1276
Author(s):  
A.H. Koroma ◽  
A. Mansaray ◽  
A. Sesay
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Leone ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Forest Degradation ◽  
Sustainable Utilization ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Cooking Process ◽  
Domestic Use ◽  
Preferred Species ◽  
Significant Factors

Seven (7) communities living in and around the Kasewe forest reserved were sampled to assess the extent and causes of fuelwood collection from the reserved forest involving 50 individuals in stratified random technique with a view to evaluate the degree and reasons for fuelwood collection from the Kasewe reserved forest. Data obtained indicate a high frequency of fuelwood harvest in the forest throughout the year. The significant factors affecting such decisions were availability and accessibility, ensure fast cooking process, and cost-effective. In addition, fuelwood activities were intensive throughout the year but peaks late dry season. Hence 48 (96%) of respondents stated forest degradation as one of the significant threats posed by fuelwood collectors to the forest. The study indicates that 100% of the collector are unemployed this was mainly the reason why residents of those communities collect fuelwood from the reserved forest. However, this study concluded that fuelwood collectors were selective over the kind of species they harvest, but the preferred species were not replanted. Fuelwood in the study area is not restricted to domestic use as it is also sold to augment local income. The sale of fuelwood is probably the biggest threat to sustainable utilization of fuelwood and the forest. Therefore, this study recommends that alternatives sources of livelihood and energy be created, among other recommendations for resident communities that will reduce the frequency of harvest from the forest.

scholarly journals Credit Policy Planning in Medium Scale Business

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 14-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Herdinata
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Policy Planning ◽  
Credit Policy ◽  
Internal Factors ◽  
Business World ◽  
Credit Management ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Medium Scale ◽  
Internal Information

Abstract In dealing with the factors affecting credit policy, a management should consider external and internal information before creating a policy. Internal factors include the structure and the amount of available bank assets and liabilities, and the type, state, and composition of available banking facilities and personnels. Meanwhile, external factors include the atmosphere of the business world in general and banking sector in particular, bank location, and others. The factors that need to be considered in credit policy cannot be separated from the problems that exist in banking activities. Since the factors affecting credit policy act as a guideline which influences credit management, it is important to analyze these factors. This research maps out some important factors in credit management and recommends certain practical steps that can be taken in credit management.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document