scholarly journals Preliminary Risk Assessment of Dam Failure at the Location of the Cukaru Peki Deposit, Bor (Serbia)

Minerals ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1126
Author(s):  
Dragana Nišić
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Empirical Method ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Dam Failure ◽  
Stability Factor ◽  
Accident Probability ◽  
Dam Stability ◽  
Accident Scenarios ◽  
Semi Empirical

Industrial waste landfills, as evidenced by frequent accidents occurring in recent years, are regarded as one of the most hazardous facilities in the world. For the adequate management of a landfill, risk assessments of dam failures should be performed before operations begin. This paper deals with the preliminary risk assessment used for the tailings and pyrite concentrate storage facilities, as well as the drainage waters reservoir, which are currently at the development and construction stage in the Cukaru Peki deposit located in eastern Serbia. The research was conducted to establish the facts and level of risk at an early stage to allow for timely prevention of potential accidents and bring operational practice in line with design requirements. The annual failure probability was estimated using a semi-empirical method, based on the dam stability factor. While, the framework proposed by the New Zealand Society on Large Dams was applied to assess the consequences of potential failures. The risk was assessed as a function of accident probability and the severity of possible consequences, and a 7 × 7 risk matrix was applied for analysis and evaluation. The level of dam failure risk at the location of the Cukaru Peki deposit was preliminarily assessed as moderate and conditionally tolerable, based on a low estimated probability of accident and a significant severity of consequences. Once the operation of these facilities starts risk assessments should be regularly updated, in order to maintain this level, and in accordance with the current situation, the modelling of specific accident scenarios should be included.

scholarly journals Problem formulation for gene drive mosquitoes designed to reduce malaria transmission in Africa: results from four regional consultations 2016–2018

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
John L. Teem ◽  
Aggrey Ambali ◽  
Barbara Glover ◽  
Jeremy Ouedraogo ◽  
Diran Makinde ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Human Health ◽  
Environmental Risk ◽  
Environmental Risk Assessment ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Problem Formulation ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Gene Drive ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Protection Goals

Abstract Background Gene drive mosquitoes have been proposed as a possible means to reduce the transmission of malaria in Africa. Because this technology has no prior use-history at this time, environmental risk assessments for gene drive mosquitoes will benefit from problem formulation—an organized and ordered process to identify protection goals and potential pathways to harm to the environment, or animal or human health. Recognizing this need, the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD), with support from African and international partners, organized four regional consultative workshops in Africa to initiate this process. Methods The workshops were attended by a diverse set of participants and stakeholders, including scientists, ethicists, health professionals, government regulators in the fields of environment health and biosafety as well government policymakers, who met for 4 days to deliberate on protection goals and pathways relevant to the use of gene drive mosquitoes for malaria control. The goal of the workshops was not to produce a comprehensive and detailed environmental risk assessment of gene drive mosquitoes, but rather to introduce problem formulation as a tool to the stakeholder community, and to serve as a starting point for conducting systematic environmental risk assessments in the future, identifying protection goals related to gene drive mosquitoes that are particular to African stakeholders. Results Participants in the workshops frequently identified human health and biodiversity as being relevant broad protection goals. Results of the deliberations provide insight into the concerns of African participants at an early stage in the development of gene drive organism/products that should be instructive to developers using this technology. Conclusions In general, the African participants of the consultations had a precautionary perspective with regard to environmental risk assessment of gene drive technology. As gene drive technology develops, protection goals will become further refined and candidate products will be further defined. These workshops represent only the beginning of a continuing process that will ultimately inform environmental risk assessment for gene drive mosquitoes to control malaria in Africa.

Comparison of SCORE and Reynolds cardiovascular risk assessments in a cohort without cardiovascular disease

2013 ◽  
Vol 154 (43) ◽  
pp. 1709-1712 ◽  
Author(s):  
Csaba Móczár
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Screening Program ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Scoring Systems ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Gender And Age ◽  
Medium Risk

Introduction: Cardiovascular risk assessment may help in the identification of symptom-free subjects with high cardiovascular risk. Aim: The author studied the correlation between SCORE and Reynolds risk assessment systems based on data from the cardiovascular risk screening program carried out in subjects without cardiovascular disease. Method: Data obtained from 4462 subjects (1977 men and 2485 women; mean age, 47,4 years) were analysed. The comparison was based on risk categories of the SCORE system. Results: There was a strong correlation between the two scoring systems in the low risk population (under <2% SCORE risk the Spearman rho = 1, p < 0.001). A weak correlation was found in the medium risk group (between 3–4% the Spearman rho = 0.59–0.49, p < 0.001 and between 10–14% the Spearman rho = 0.42, ns.) and a stronger correlation in the high risk group (>15% the Spearmen rho = 0.8, p = 0.017). When correlations were analysed in gender and age categories, the weakest correlation was detected in medium risk women over 40 years of age. In cases when the differences between the two scoring systems were significant, the hsCRP levels were significantly higher (4.1 vs. 5.67 mg/L, p < 0.001). Conclusions: Introduction of hsCRP into cardiovascular risk assessments can refine the risk status of symptom-free subjects, especially among intermediate risk middle-age women (two-step risk assessment). Orv. Hetil., 154 (43), 1709–1712.

Modeling the Effects of O-sulfonation on the CID of Serine

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth Lucas ◽  
George Barnes
Keyword(s):  
Sulfo Group ◽  
High Energy ◽  
Empirical Method ◽  
Side Chain ◽  
Energy Structure ◽  
Direct Dynamics ◽  
Theoretical Mass ◽  
Intermolecular Proton Transfer ◽  
Dynamics Simulations ◽  
Semi Empirical

We present the results of direct dynamics simulations and DFT calculations aimed at elucidating the effect of \textit{O}-sulfonation on the collision induced dissociation for serine. Towards this end, direct dynamics simulations of both serine and sulfoserine were performed at multiple collision energies and theoretical mass spectra obtained. Comparisons to experimental results are favorable for both systems. Peaks related to the sulfo group are identified and the reaction dynamics explored. In particular, three significant peaks (m\z 106, 88, and 81) seen in the theoretical mass spectrum directly related to the sulfo group are analyzed as well as major peaks shared by both systems. Our analysis shows that the m\z 106 peaks result from intramolecular rearrangements, intermolecular proton transfer among complexes composed of initial fragmentation products, and at high energy side-chain fragmentation. The \mz 88 peak was found to contain multiple constitutional isomers, including a previously unconsidered, low energy structure. It was also seen that the RM1 semi empirical method was not able to obtain all of the major peaks seen in experiment for sulfoserine. In contrast, PM6 did obtain all major experimental peaks.

Theoretical investigation of Ramachandran plot of N-formyl-L-alanine-amide

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chem Int
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Theoretical Investigation ◽  
Energy Analysis ◽  
Empirical Method ◽  
Conformational Space ◽  
Ramachandran Plot ◽  
Global Minima ◽  
Reasonable Time ◽  
Semi Empirical

The full conformational space of N-formyl-L-alanine-amide was explored by the semi-empirical method AM1 coupled to the Multi Niche Crowding (MNC) genetic algorithm implemented in a package of programs developed in our laboratory. The structural and energy analysis of the resulting conformational space E(,ψ) exhibits 5 regions or minima ɣL, ɣD, ɛL, D and αD. The technique provides better detection of local and global minima within a reasonable time.

The Halo Effect in Business Risk Audits: Can Strategic Risk Assessment Bias Auditor Judgment about Accounting Details?

2005 ◽  
Vol 80 (3) ◽  
pp. 921-939 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ed O'Donnell ◽  
Joseph J. Schultz
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Performance Evaluation ◽  
Laboratory Experiments ◽  
Halo Effect ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Business Risk ◽  
Auditor Judgment ◽  
Strategic Risk ◽  
Strategic Assessment ◽  
Assessment Bias

Many auditors use an audit methodology that requires a strategic risk assessment of their client's business model as a first step for assessing audit risks. This study examines whether the holistic perspective that auditors acquire in making a strategic risk assessment influences the extent to which they adjust account-level risk assessments when they encounter changes in accounts that are inconsistent with information about client operations. Based on halo theory from the performance evaluation literature, we hypothesize that auditors who (1) perform (do not perform) strategic assessment, and (2) develop favorable (unfavorable) strategic risk assessments, are less (more) likely to adjust account-level risk assessments for inconsistent fluctuations. Data from two laboratory experiments using experienced auditors support both hypotheses. Findings suggest that the halo effect generated during strategic assessment influences judgment by altering auditor tolerance for inconsistent fluctuations.

Applying the risk principle to optimize accuracy and equity in correctional risk assessment: Results From a Simulation

2021 ◽  
pp. 0306624X2098652
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Principle ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
The Impact

As the use of risk assessments for correctional populations has grown, so has concern that these instruments exacerbate existing racial and ethnic disparities. While much of the attention arising from this concern has focused on how algorithms are designed, relatively little consideration has been given to how risk assessments are used. To this end, the present study tests whether application of the risk principle would help preserve predictive accuracy while, at the same time, mitigate disparities. Using a sample of 9,529 inmates released from Minnesota prisons who had been assessed multiple times during their confinement on a fully-automated risk assessment, this study relies on both actual and simulated data to examine the impact of program assignment decisions on changes in risk level from intake to release. The findings showed that while the risk principle was used in practice to some extent, the simulated results showed that greater adherence to the risk principle would increase reductions in risk levels and minimize the disparities observed at intake. The simulated data further revealed the most favorable outcomes would be achieved by not only applying the risk principle, but also by expanding program capacity for the higher-risk inmates in order to adequately reduce their risk.

scholarly journals An Alternative Risk Assessment Model of Urban Waterlogging: A Case Study of Ningbo City

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 826
Author(s):  
Meiling Zhou ◽  
Xiuli Feng ◽  
Kaikai Liu ◽  
Chi Zhang ◽  
Lijian Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
The North ◽  
Coastal Cities ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
The City

Influenced by climate change, extreme weather events occur frequently, and bring huge impacts to urban areas, including urban waterlogging. Conducting risk assessments of urban waterlogging is a critical step to diagnose problems, improve infrastructure and achieve sustainable development facing extreme weathers. This study takes Ningbo, a typical coastal city in the Yangtze River Delta, as an example to conduct a risk assessment of urban waterlogging with high-resolution remote sensing images and high-precision digital elevation models to further analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of waterlogging risk. Results indicate that waterlogging risk in the city proper of Ningbo is mainly low risk, accounting for 36.9%. The higher-risk and medium-risk areas have the same proportions, accounting for 18.7%. They are followed by the lower-risk and high-risk areas, accounting for 15.5% and 9.6%, respectively. In terms of space, waterlogging risk in the city proper of Ningbo is high in the south and low in the north. The high-risk area is mainly located to the west of Jiangdong district and the middle of Haishu district. The low-risk area is mainly distributed in the north of Jiangbei district. These results are consistent with the historical situation of waterlogging in Ningbo, which prove the effectiveness of the risk assessment model and provide an important reference for the government to prevent and mitigate waterlogging. The optimized risk assessment model is also of importance for waterlogging risk assessments in coastal cities. Based on this model, the waterlogging risk of coastal cities can be quickly assessed, combining with local characteristics, which will help improve the city’s capability of responding to waterlogging disasters and reduce socio-economic loss.

scholarly journals How Good Is the STW Sensor? An Account from a Larger Shipping Company

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 465
Author(s):  
Angelos Ikonomakis ◽  
Ulrik Dam Nielsen ◽  
Klaus Kähler Holst ◽  
Jesper Dietz ◽  
Roberto Galeazzi
Keyword(s):  
High Frequency ◽  
Additional Data ◽  
Empirical Method ◽  
Influential Factor ◽  
Sensor Data ◽  
Sea State ◽  
Shipping Company ◽  
Frequency Sensor ◽  
Semi Empirical

This paper examines the statistical properties and the quality of the speed through water (STW) measurement based on data extracted from almost 200 container ships of Maersk Line’s fleet for 3 years of operation. The analysis uses high-frequency sensor data along with additional data sources derived from external providers. The interest of the study has its background in the accuracy of STW measurement as the most important parameter in the assessment of a ship’s performance analysis. The paper contains a thorough analysis of the measurements assumed to be related with the STW error, along with a descriptive decomposition of the main variables by sea region including sea state, vessel class, vessel IMO number and manufacturer of the speed-log installed in each ship. The paper suggests a semi-empirical method using a threshold to identify potential error in a ship’s STW measurement. The study revealed that the sea region is the most influential factor for the STW accuracy and that 26% of the ships of the dataset’s fleet warrant further investigation.

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