scholarly journals A Survey of the Individual Claim Size and Other Risk Factors Using Credibility Bonus-Malus Premiums

Risks ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 20
Author(s):  
Emilio Gómez-Déniz ◽  
Enrique Calderín-Ojeda
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Automobile Insurance ◽  
Claim Size ◽  
Insurance Portfolio ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Mixed Regression ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Size Threshold ◽  
Gender Type

In this paper, a flexible count regression model based on a bivariate compound Poisson distribution is introduced in order to distinguish between different types of claims according to the claim size. Furthermore, it allows us to analyse the factors that affect the number of claims above and below a given claim size threshold in an automobile insurance portfolio. Relevant properties of this model are given. Next, a mixed regression model is derived to compute credibility bonus-malus premiums based on the individual claim size and other risk factors such as gender, type of vehicle, driving area, or age of the vehicle. Results are illustrated by using a well-known automobile insurance portfolio dataset.

scholarly journals Multivariate INAR(1) Regression Models Based on the Sarmanov Distribution

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 505
Author(s):  
Lluís Bermúdez ◽  
Dimitris Karlis
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Serial Correlation ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Automobile Insurance ◽  
Data Set ◽  
New Models ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Over Time

A multivariate INAR(1) regression model based on the Sarmanov distribution is proposed for modelling claim counts from an automobile insurance contract with different types of coverage. The correlation between claims from different coverage types is considered jointly with the serial correlation between the observations of the same policyholder observed over time. Several models based on the multivariate Sarmanov distribution are analyzed. The new models offer some advantages since they have all the advantages of the MINAR(1) regression model but allow for a more flexible dependence structure by using the Sarmanov distribution. Driven by a real panel data set, these models are considered and fitted to the data to discuss their goodness of fit and computational efficiency.

Verso un modello multifattoriale per la comprensione dei legami intimi violenti

2009 ◽  
pp. 17-41
Author(s):  
Silvia Mazzoni ◽  
Marisa Malogoli Togliatti
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Partner Violence ◽  
Intimate Partner ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Intimate Partners ◽  
Economic Violence ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Psychological Models ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Dynamic Key

- The article introduces the topic of violence between intimate partners (IPV) from a brief description of the different types of violence highlighted by the literature: psychological, physical, sexual and economic violence. While recognizing a wide cultural influence behind the increase in frequency of the Intimate Partners Violence (in which the perpetrator is mainly the man and the victim is a woman), the article presents an overview of the different psychological models in search of the risk factors on which different theories converge. In particular, the article outline the various risk factors reported by researchers and take into account the relational level where risk factors are focused and the role that violence plays in the individual and relational dynamic. Key words: intimate partner violence; risk factor; individual dynamic; relational dynamic.

Graft detachments in endothelial keratoplasty

2021 ◽  
pp. bjophthalmol-2020-318092
Author(s):  
Rashmi Deshmukh ◽  
Sridevi Nair ◽  
Darren Shu Jeng Ting ◽  
Tushar Agarwal ◽  
Jacqueline Beltz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Endothelial Keratoplasty ◽  
Common Complication ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Descemet Stripping Endothelial Keratoplasty ◽  
Secondary Interventions ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Incidence Risk ◽  
Donor Graft

Graft detachment is the most common complication of endothelial keratoplasty. With the ongoing advancements in the field of endothelial keratoplasty, our understanding of risk factors of graft detachments and its management has been evolving. Various prevention measures have been described in literature including presoaking the donor graft, anterior chamber tamponade, venting incisions, sutures to prevent dislocation of graft. Management of a detached graft involves secondary interventions such as rebubbling, suturing and regrafts. In this review, we discuss graft detachment in different types of endothelial keratoplasty techniques including Descemet stripping endothelial keratoplasty, Descemet stripping automated endothelial keratoplasty and Descemet’s membrane endothelial keratoplasty; with emphasis on incidence, risk factors, preventive measures and their management.

scholarly journals Prevalence of BRD-Related Viral Pathogens in the Upper Respiratory Tract of Swiss Veal Calves

Animals ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 1940
Author(s):  
Eveline Studer ◽  
Lutz Schönecker ◽  
Mireille Meylan ◽  
Dimitri Stucki ◽  
Ronald Dijkman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Welfare Economic ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Nasopharyngeal Swab ◽  
Upper Respiratory Tract ◽  
Convenience Sample ◽  
Veal Calves ◽  
Mixed Regression ◽  
Influenza C Virus ◽  
Syncytial Virus

The prevention of bovine respiratory disease is important, as it may lead to impaired welfare, economic losses, and considerable antimicrobial use, which can be associated with antimicrobial resistance. The aim of this study was to describe the prevalence of respiratory viruses and to identify risk factors for their occurrence. A convenience sample of 764 deep nasopharyngeal swab samples from veal calves was screened by PCR for bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV), bovine parainfluenza-3 virus (BPI3V), bovine coronavirus (BCoV), influenza D virus (IDV), and influenza C virus (ICV). The following prevalence rates were observed: BRSV, 2.1%; BPI3V, 3.3%; BCoV, 53.5%; IDV, 4.1%; ICV, 0%. Logistic mixed regression models were built for BCoV to explore associations with calf management and housing. Positive swab samples were more frequent in younger calves than older calves (>100 days; p < 0.001). The probability of detecting BCoV increased with increasing group size in young calves. Findings from this study suggested that young calves should be fattened in small groups to limit the risk of occurrence of BCoV, although an extended spectrum of risk factors for viral associated respiratory disorders such as nutritional aspects should be considered in future studies.

scholarly journals A comprehensive, contemporary assessment of the association between hepatosteatosis and coronary artery calcium scoring

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
T Heseltine ◽  
SW Murray ◽  
RL Jones ◽  
M Fisher ◽  
B Ruzsics
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Coronary Artery ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Coronary Artery Calcium ◽  
Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Multinomial Logistic Regression ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Male Sex

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. onbehalf Liverpool Multiparametric Imaging Collaboration Background Coronary artery calcium (CAC) score is a well-established technique for stratifying an individual’s cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Several well-established registries have incorporated CAC scoring into CVD risk prediction models to enhance accuracy. Hepatosteatosis (HS) has been shown to be an independent predictor of CVD events and can be measured on non-contrast computed tomography (CT). We sought to undertake a contemporary, comprehensive assessment of the influence of HS on CAC score alongside traditional CVD risk factors. In patients with HS it may be beneficial to offer routine CAC screening to evaluate CVD risk to enhance opportunities for earlier primary prevention strategies. Methods We performed a retrospective, observational analysis at a high-volume cardiac CT centre analysing consecutive CT coronary angiography (CTCA) studies. All patients referred for investigation of chest pain over a 28-month period (June 2014 to November 2016) were included. Patients with established CVD were excluded. The cardiac findings were reported by a cardiologist and retrospectively analysed by two independent radiologists for the presence of HS. Those with CAC of zero and those with CAC greater than zero were compared for demographic and cardiac risks. A multivariate analysis comparing the risk factors was performed to adjust for the presence of established risk factors. A binomial logistic regression model was developed to assess the association between the presence of HS and increasing strata of CAC. Results In total there were 1499 patients referred for CTCA without prior evidence of CVD. The assessment of HS was completed in 1195 (79.7%) and CAC score was performed in 1103 (92.3%). There were 466 with CVD and 637 without CVD. The prevalence of HS was significantly higher in those with CVD versus those without CVD on CTCA (51.3% versus 39.9%, p = 0.007). Male sex (50.7% versus 36.1% p= &lt;0.001), age (59.4 ± 13.7 versus 48.1 ± 13.6, p= &lt;0.001) and diabetes (12.4% versus 6.9%, p = 0.04) were also significantly higher in the CAC group compared to the CAC score of zero. HS was associated with increasing strata of CAC score compared with CAC of zero (CAC score 1-100 OR1.47, p = 0.01, CAC score 101-400 OR:1.68, p = 0.02, CAC score &gt;400 OR 1.42, p = 0.14). This association became non-significant in the highest strata of CAC score. Conclusion We found a significant association between the increasing age, male sex, diabetes and HS with the presence of CAC. HS was also associated with a more severe phenotype of CVD based on the multinomial logistic regression model. Although the association reduced for the highest strata of CAC (CAC score &gt;400) this likely reflects the overall low numbers of patients within this group and is likely a type II error. Based on these findings it may be appropriate to offer routine CVD risk stratification techniques in all those diagnosed with HS.

scholarly journals Risk factors on admission associated with hospital length of stay in patients with COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anping Guo ◽  
Jin Lu ◽  
Haizhu Tan ◽  
Zejian Kuang ◽  
Ying Luo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Liver Disease ◽  
Length Of Stay ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Hospital Length ◽  
Clinical Treatment ◽  
Hospital Length Of Stay ◽  
Female Sex

AbstractTreating patients with COVID-19 is expensive, thus it is essential to identify factors on admission associated with hospital length of stay (LOS) and provide a risk assessment for clinical treatment. To address this, we conduct a retrospective study, which involved patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infection in Hefei, China and being discharged between January 20 2020 and March 16 2020. Demographic information, clinical treatment, and laboratory data for the participants were extracted from medical records. A prolonged LOS was defined as equal to or greater than the median length of hospitable stay. The median LOS for the 75 patients was 17 days (IQR 13–22). We used univariable and multivariable logistic regressions to explore the risk factors associated with a prolonged hospital LOS. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated. The median age of the 75 patients was 47 years. Approximately 75% of the patients had mild or general disease. The univariate logistic regression model showed that female sex and having a fever on admission were significantly associated with longer duration of hospitalization. The multivariate logistic regression model enhances these associations. Odds of a prolonged LOS were associated with male sex (aOR 0.19, 95% CI 0.05–0.63, p = 0.01), having fever on admission (aOR 8.27, 95% CI 1.47–72.16, p = 0.028) and pre-existing chronic kidney or liver disease (aOR 13.73 95% CI 1.95–145.4, p = 0.015) as well as each 1-unit increase in creatinine level (aOR 0.94, 95% CI 0.9–0.98, p = 0.007). We also found that a prolonged LOS was associated with increased creatinine levels in patients with chronic kidney or liver disease (p < 0.001). In conclusion, female sex, fever, chronic kidney or liver disease before admission and increasing creatinine levels were associated with prolonged LOS in patients with COVID-19.

scholarly journals Withdrawal Properties of Self-Tapping Screws in Japanese larch (Larix kaempferi (Lamb.) Carr.) Cross Laminated Timber

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 524
Author(s):  
Junhua Xu ◽  
Shuangbao Zhang ◽  
Guofang Wu ◽  
Yingchun Gong ◽  
Haiqing Ren
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Engineering Design ◽  
Wood Species ◽  
Japanese Larch ◽  
Effective Length ◽  
Larix Kaempferi ◽  
Cross Laminated Timber ◽  
The World ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Length Increment

With the increasing popularity of cross-laminated timber (CLT) constructions around the world, there have been attempts to produce CLT using local wood species in different countries, such as Japanese larch (Larix kaempferi (Lamb.) Carr.) in China. Thus, the need to investigate the connection performance also increases to support the design and construction of CLT buildings using local wood species. In this study, the withdrawal properties of three different types of self-tapping screws (STS), with a diameter of 6 mm, 8 mm, and 11 mm, were tested with Japanese larch CLT. The results revealed that the withdrawal strength of STS increased with increasing density and effective length, but decreased with an increasing diameter. With a density increment of 0.05 g/cm3, the withdrawal strength increased by an average of 9.4%. With an effective length increment of 24 mm, the withdrawal strength increased by an average of 1.4%. An empirical regression model was adopted to predict the withdrawal strength of Japanese larch CLT based on the results, which can be used for potential engineering design of CLT connections using STS.

scholarly journals 1153. Characterization of Invasive Mold Infections in Acute Leukemia and Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant Recipient Patients and Risk Factors for Mortality - a Single Center Experience

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S603-S604
Author(s):  
Ryan Kubat ◽  
Praveen Subramanian ◽  
Yanming Li ◽  
Kassem Hammoud ◽  
Albert Eid ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Stem Cell ◽  
Acute Leukemia ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Hematopoietic Stem Cell ◽  
Cox Model ◽  
Myelogenous Leukemia ◽  
Cell Transplant ◽  
Hematopoietic Stem ◽  
Invasive Mold Infections

Abstract Background Invasive mold infections (IMIs) remain a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with acute leukemia (AL) and those undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). We describe the epidemiology of IMIs, the incidence of IMI in patients with acute myelogenous Leukemia (AML) post HSCT, and risk factors for mortality. Methods Patients were identified using ICD9 and ICD10 codes using a University of Kansas internal database from 2009-2019, microbiology records, and an AML HSCT database and were followed through May 1st, 2020. Patients’ electronic medical records were reviewed for inclusion. IMI was defined as proven or probable using the 2009 National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Mycoses Study Group (MSG) guidelines. Incidence was calculated as IMI cases/100-person-years. Risk factors for overall mortality were evaluated using a Cox regression model. Results We included 138 patients: 79 developed IMI after HSCT (8 autologous, 71 allogeneic) and 59 developed IMI after AL diagnosis. Seventeen of the AL patients underwent HSCT after IMI diagnosis (12 within 100 days of IMI). Proven IMI occurred in 45 (32.6%) and probable IMI occurred in 93 (67.4%) patients. The most common prophylactic agent prior to IMI diagnosis was fluconazole (31.2%), with 21.0% receiving none. Aspergillus was the most commonly identified mold with 91 (65.9%) cases. The average treatment duration was 101 (range 0 - 799) days. The incidence of IMI in patients with AML who underwent HSCT was 2.35 cases/100 person-years. All-cause mortality among patients with AL or HSCT who developed IMI was 23.1% at 6 weeks, 34.1% at 12 weeks, and 61.2% at 1 year. On univariate Cox model, Karnofsky performance status &gt; 70 was associated with lower mortality (hazard ratio (HR) 0.317, 95% confidence interval (CI) [0.110, 0.914]) among HSCT recipients. ICU admission within 7 days prior to IMI diagnosis (HR 6.469, 95% CI [1.779, 23.530]) and each one point increase in BMI (HR 1.051, CI [1.001, 1.103]) were associated with increased mortality in the AL group. Figure 1 - Invasive mold infections by pathogen in HSCT-recipients and acute leukemia patients from 2009-2019. Figure 2 - Antifungal prophylactic agents prescribed for at least one week at time of IMI diagnosis Table 1 - Univariate survival analysis calculated using a Cox proportional-hazards regression model among patients who developed IMI after HSCT and patients who developed IMI after acute leukemia diagnosis Conclusion IMIs are associated with significant mortality in HSCT recipients and AL patients; patients at higher risk for mortality include those with lower baseline Karnofsky scores, recent ICU admissions, and higher BMI at time of IMI diagnosis. Disclosures Wissam El Atrouni, MD, ViiV (Advisor or Review Panel member)

scholarly journals Nomogram based on homogeneous and heterogeneous associated factors for predicting distant metastases in patients with colorectal cancer

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tianwen Luo ◽  
Yutong Wang ◽  
Xuefeng Shan ◽  
Ye Bai ◽  
Chun Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Lung Metastases ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
Distant Metastases ◽  
Good Prediction ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Good Prediction Performance ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Associated Risk Factors

Abstract Background The identification of the homogeneous and heterogeneous risk factors for different types of metastases in colorectal cancer (CRC) may shed light on the aetiology and help individualize prophylactic treatment. The present study characterized the incidence differences and identified the homogeneous and heterogeneous risk factors associated with distant metastases in CRC. Methods CRC patients registered in the SEER database between 2010 and 2016 were included in this study. Logistic regression was used to analyse homogeneous and heterogeneous risk factors for the occurrence of different types of metastases. Nomograms were constructed to predict the risk for developing metastases, and the performance was quantitatively assessed using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and calibration curve. Results A total of 204,595 eligible CRC patients were included in our study, and 17.07% of them had distant metastases. The overall incidences of liver metastases, lung metastases, bone metastases, and brain metastases were 15.34%, 5.22%, 1.26%, and 0.29%, respectively. The incidence of distant metastases differed by age, gender, and the original CRC sites. Poorly differentiated grade, more lymphatic metastasis, higher carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), and different metastatic organs were all positively associated with four patterns of metastases. In contrast, age, sex, race, insurance status, position, and T stage were heterogeneously associated with metastases. The calibration and ROC curves exhibited good performance for predicting distant metastases. Conclusions The incidence of distant metastases in CRC exhibited distinct differences, and the patients had homogeneous and heterogeneous associated risk factors. Although limited risk factors were included in the present study, the established nomogram showed good prediction performance.

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