Skills of Thunderstorm Prediction by Convective Indices over a Metropolitan Area: Comparison of Microwave and Radiosonde Data

In this work, we compare the values of 15 convective indices obtained from radiosonde and microwave temperature and water vapor profiles simultaneously measured over Nizhny Novgorod (56.2°N, 44°E) during 5 convective seasons of 2014–2018. A good or moderate correlation (with coefficients of ~0.7–0.85) is found for most indices. We assess the thunderstorm prediction skills with a lead time of 12 h for each radiosonde and microwave index. It is revealed that the effectiveness of thunderstorm prediction by microwave indices is much better than by radiosonde ones. Moreover, a good correlation between radiosonde and microwave values of a certain index does not necessarily correspond to similar prediction skills. Eight indices (Showalter Index, Maximum Unstable Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Total Totals index, TQ index, Jefferson Index, S index, K index, and Thompson index) are regarded to be the best predictors from both the true skill statistics (TSS) maximum and Heidke skill score (HSS) maximum points of view. In the case of radiosonde data, the best indices are the Jefferson Index, K index, S index, and Thompson index. Only TSS and HSS maxima for these indices are close to the microwave ones, whereas the prediction skills of other radiosonde indices are essentially worse than in the case of microwave data. The analysis suggests that the main possible reason of this discrepancy is an unexpectedly low quality of radiosonde data.

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The skill of convective parameters and indices to predict isolated and severe thunderstorms

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-7-327-2007 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 7 (2) ◽

pp. 327-342 ◽

Cited By ~ 80

Author(s):

M. Kunz

Keyword(s):

Radar Data ◽

Skill Score ◽

Distribution Functions ◽

Insurance Company ◽

K Index ◽

Severe Thunderstorms ◽

Skill Scores ◽

Prediction Probability ◽

Heidke Skill Score ◽

Categorical Verification

Abstract. The preconvective environment on days with ordinary, widespread, and severe thunderstorms in Southwest Germany was investigated. Various thermodynamic and kinetic parameters calculated from radiosoundings at 12:00 UTC were verified against subsequent thunderstorm observations derived from SYNOP station data, radar data, and damage reports of a building insurance company. The skill of the convective parameters and indices to predict thunderstorms was evaluated by means of probability distribution functions, probabilities of thunderstorms according to an index threshold, and skill scores like the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) that are based on categorical verification. For the ordinary decision as to whether a thunderstorm day was expected or not, the best results were obtained with the original Lifted Index (80% prediction probability for LI≤−1.73; HSS=0.57 for LI≤1.76), the Showalter Index, and the modified K-Index. Considering days with isolated compared to widespread thunderstorms, the best performance is reached by the Deep Convective Index. For days with severe thunderstorms that caused damage due to hail, local storms or floods, the best prediction skill is found again for the Lifted Index and the Deep Convective Index, but also for the Potential Instability Index, the Delta-θe Index, and a version of the CAPE, where the lifting profile is determined by averaging over the lowest 100 hPa.

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A statistical analysis of sounding derived indices and parameters for extreme and non-extreme thunderstorm events over Cyprus

Advances in Geosciences ◽

10.5194/adgeo-23-79-2010 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 23 ◽

pp. 79-85 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

K. Savvidou ◽

A. Orphanou ◽

D. Charalambous ◽

P. Lingis ◽

S. Michaelides

Keyword(s):

Statistical Analysis ◽

Potential Energy ◽

Convective Available Potential Energy ◽

Radiosonde Data ◽

Available Potential Energy ◽

K Index ◽

Upper Limits ◽

The Stability ◽

Simple Statistical Analysis ◽

Stability Indices

Abstract. The main purpose of this study is to provide a simple statistical analysis of several stability indices and parameters for extreme and non-extreme thunderstorm events during the period 1997 to 2001 in Cyprus. For this study, radiosonde data from Athalassa station (35°1´ N, 33°4´ E) were analyzed during the aforementioned period. The stability indices and parameters set under study are the K index, the Total Totals (TT) index, the Convective Available Potential Energy related parameters such as Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) and the Convective Inhibition (CIN), the Vorticity Generator Parameter (VGP), the Bulk Richardson Number (BRN), the BRN Shear and the Storm Relative Helicity (SRH). An event is categorized as extreme, if primarily, CAPE was non zero and secondary, if values of both the K and the TotalTotals (TT) indices exceeded 26.9 and 50, respectively. The cases with positive CAPE but lower values of the other indices, were identified as non-extreme. By calculating the median, the lower and upper limits, as well as the lower and upper quartiles of the values of these indices, the main characteristics of their distribution were determined.

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Downscaling Regional Hydrological Forecast for Operational Use in Local Early Warning: HYPE Models in the Sirba River

Water ◽

10.3390/w12123504 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (12) ◽

pp. 3504

Author(s):

Giovanni Massazza ◽

Vieri Tarchiani ◽

Jafet C. M. Andersson ◽

Abdou Ali ◽

Mohamed Housseini Ibrahim ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Early Warning ◽

Lead Time ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Early Warning Systems ◽

Skill Score ◽

Processing Technique ◽

Flood Frequency ◽

Warning Systems ◽

Heidke Skill Score ◽

Good For

In the last decades since the dramatic increase in flood frequency and magnitude, floods have become a crucial problem in West Africa. National and international authorities concentrate efforts on developing early warning systems (EWS) to deliver flood alerts and prevent loss of lives and damages. Usually, regional EWS are based on hydrological modeling, while local EWS adopt field observations. This study aims to integrate outputs from two regional hydrological models—Niger HYPE (NH) and World-Wide HYPE (WWH)—in a local EWS developed for the Sirba River. Sirba is the major tributary of Middle Niger River Basin and is supported by a local EWS since June 2019. Model evaluation indices were computed with 5-day forecasts demonstrating a better performance of NH (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency NSE = 0.58) than WWH (NSE = 0.10) and the need of output optimization. The optimization conducted with a linear regression post-processing technique improves performance significantly to “very good” for NH (Heidke skill score HSS = 0.53) and “good” for WWH (HSS = 0.28). HYPE outputs allow to extend local EWS warning lead-time up to 10 days. Since the transfer informatic environment is not yet a mature operational system 10–20% of forecasts were unfortunately not produced in 2019, impacting operational availability.

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Recent Trends in Four Common Stability Indices Derived from U.S. Radiosonde Observations

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli3626.1 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 19 (3) ◽

pp. 309-323 ◽

Cited By ~ 20

Author(s):

Diana DeRubertis

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Extreme Values ◽

Convective Available Potential Energy ◽

Atmospheric Stability ◽

The United States ◽

Severe Weather ◽

Radiosonde Data ◽

K Index ◽

The Mean ◽

Stability Indices

Abstract Daily sounding-derived atmospheric stability indices are typically employed for short-term severe weather forecasts. Over longer time periods, these indicators may convey changes in the potential for severe storm development over the United States. Daily (0000 UTC) observations from 48 radiosonde stations in the contiguous United States are extracted to assemble a ∼50 yr record of four common stability indices: the Lifted Index, the K-Index, convective available potential energy (CAPE), and the Air Force Severe Weather Threat Index. Because of radiosonde data inhomogeneities, the 1973–97 period is the focus of the analysis. Trends in the mean and extreme values of daily index observations are calculated for spring and summer seasons. In addition, climatological mean indices, as well as the mean frequency of index extremes, are determined for all U.S. regions. At stations free of obvious data discontinuities, the early part of the record (1948–65) is compared with more recent periods. In spring, few significant changes in either index means or extremes are reported. However, in summer, widespread trends toward enhanced instability appear, particularly in the Lifted Index, the K-Index, and CAPE. Stations in the Plains and southern states show the most consistent increases in severe weather potential, while significant trends in index extremes are uncommon in the western region, possibly due to the rarity of severe weather there.

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Kepuasan Masyarakat Terhadap Pelayanan Kelurahan Setelah Pemekaran Di Tangerang Selatan

Liquidity ◽

10.32546/lq.v2i2.117 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 2 (2) ◽

pp. 151-159

Author(s):

Pitri Yandri

Keyword(s):

Public Perception ◽

Service Personnel ◽

Urban Services ◽

Hospitality Workers ◽

Care Workers ◽

Before And After ◽

Cartesian Diagram ◽

Better Than

The purpose of this study is (1) to analyze public perception on urban services before and after the expansion of the region, (2) analyze the level of people's satisfaction with urban services, and (3) analyze the determinants of the variables that determine what level of people's satisfaction urban services. This study concluded that first, after the expansion, the quality of urban services in South Tangerang City is better than before. Secondly, however, public satisfaction with the services only reached 48.53% (poor scale). Third, by using a Cartesian Diagram, the second priority that must be addressed are: (1) clarity of service personnel, (2) the discipline of service personnel, (3) responsibility for care workers; (4) the speed of service, (5) the ability of officers services, (6) obtain justice services, and (7) the courtesy and hospitality workers.

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Implementasi Voip Server Berbasis IPV6 Dengan Raspberry PI

Manutech : Jurnal Teknologi Manufaktur ◽

10.33504/manutech.v9i01.32 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (01) ◽

pp. 47-54

Author(s):

Rabbai San Arif ◽

Yuli Fitrisia ◽

Agus Urip Ari Wibowo

Keyword(s):

Internet Protocol ◽

Wireless Transmission ◽

Raspberry Pi ◽

Test Results ◽

Average Delay ◽

Ipv6 Network ◽

Ip Network ◽

Selection Of ◽

Better Than

Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) is a telecommunications technology that is able to pass the communication service in Internet Protocol networks so as to allow communicating between users in an IP network. However VoIP technology still has weakness in the Quality of Service (QoS). VOPI weaknesses is affected by the selection of the physical servers used. In this research, VoIP is configured on Linux operating system with Asterisk as VoIP application server and integrated on a Raspberry Pi by using wired and wireless network as the transmission medium. Because of depletion of IPv4 capacity that can be used on the network, it needs to be applied to VoIP system using the IPv6 network protocol with supports devices. The test results by using a wired transmission medium that has obtained are the average delay is 117.851 ms, jitter is 5.796 ms, packet loss is 0.38%, throughput is 962.861 kbps, 8.33% of CPU usage and 59.33% of memory usage. The analysis shows that the wired transmission media is better than the wireless transmission media and wireless-wired.

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Motilitas dan Vabilitas Spermatozoa Ayam Kampung pada Suhu 5°C Menggunakan Pengencer dan Lama Simpan yang Berbeda

Jurnal Ilmu dan Teknologi Peternakan Tropis ◽

10.33772/jitro.v5i3.7242 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 5 (2) ◽

pp. 102

Author(s):

Enike Dwi Kusumawati ◽

Selvinus Lawu Woli ◽

Aju Tjatur Nugroho Krisnaningsih ◽

Waluyo Edi Susanto ◽

Syam Rahadi

Keyword(s):

Data Analysis ◽

Storage Temperature ◽

Coconut Water ◽

Laboratory Research ◽

Ringer Lactate ◽

Randomized Design ◽

Native Chicken ◽

Lactate Solution ◽

Better Than

ABSTRAKPenelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui motilitas dan viabilitas spermatozoa ayam kampung pada suhu 5oC menggunakan pengencer dan lama simpan yang berbeda. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah penelitian laboratorium menggunakan Rancangan Acak Lengkap (RAL) Faktorial dengan pengencer ringer lactat solution, air kelapa dan tanpa pengencer serta lama simpan 0, 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27, 30, masing-masing diulang 10 kali. Variabel yang diamati yaitu motilitas dan viabilitas spermatozoa. Analisa data yang digunakan adalah analisis varian. Hasil analisis data menunjukkan bahwa motilitas dan viabilitas spermatozoa menggunakan pengencer ringer lactat solution lebih tinggi (P<0,01) serta dapat bertahan sampai lama simpan 24 jam dibandingkan air kelapa dan tanpa pengencer. Adapun nilai motilitas ringer lactat solution, air kelapa dan tanpa pengencer pada lama simpan 24 jam masing-masing sebesar 43,5±17,17%; 8±4,83%; 6,5±2,4%, sedangkan nilai viabilitasnya sebesar 83,2±7,25%; 64,6±3,20%; dan 63,1±2,33%. Kesimpulan dari hasil penelitian ini adalah ringer lactat solution lebih baik dibandingkan air kelapa dan tanpa pengencer dalam mempertahankan kualitas semen ayam kampung pada suhu simpan 5oC sampai lama simpan 24 jam.Kata Kunci : air kelapa, ayam kampung, motilitas, spermatozoa, viabilitas ABSTRACTThis study was conducted to determine the motility and viability of spermatozoa of Native chickens at 5oC using different diluents and time storage. The method used in this study was laboratory research using Factorial Completely Randomized Design with ringer lactate solution, coconut water and without diluent at 0, 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27, 30 hours of time storage each repeated 10 times. The variables observed were motility and viability of sperm. Data analysis used is variance analysis. The results of data analysis showed that the motility and viability of spermatozoa using ringer lactate solution diluents was higher (P <0.05) than coconut water and without diluents. The motility values of ringer lactat solution, coconut water and without diluents were 43,5±17,17%; 8±4,83%; 6,5±2,4% respectively, while the viability values were 83,2±7,25%; 64,6±3,20% and 63,1±2,33%. The conclusion of this study is that ringer lactat solution is better than coconut water an without diluents in maintaining the quality of Native chicken semen at a storage temperature of 5oC until 24 hours.Keywords: coconut water, motility, native chicken, sperm, viability

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Regeneration of market squares in historic town centres: ideas, discussions, controversies

Urban Development Issues ◽

10.2478/udi-2018-0036 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 60 (1) ◽

pp. 67-79

Author(s):

Natalia Bursiewicz

Keyword(s):

Quality Of Life ◽

Form And Function ◽

Points Of View ◽

And Function ◽

Historic Cities ◽

Lower Silesia

Abstract In Poland, the last 15 years have been marked by various, numerous regeneration projects of historic cities that were supposed to improve the citizens quality of life and their security, as well as to create an attractive tourist offer. Those programs were often focused on the renewal, reshape and modernization of public squares. Such changes never go unnoticed. On contrary, these are frequently associated with criticism, debate and disagreements. The research has been focused on the analysis of regeneration projects from selected Market Squares in historic cities and town centres in Lower Silesia. The main aim was to exhibit the medieval origin of those squares and recently introduced contemporary layout. Moreover it was to present diverse opinions regarding square’s form and function, that can be crucial in understanding the architects, planners and citizens’ points of view and their ‘feelings’ towards the space.

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PERBANDINGAN KUALITAS PELAYANAN ANTARA PERPUSTAKAAN PROVINSI KEPRI DENGAN KOTA TANJUNG PINANG

Jurnal Benefita ◽

10.22216/jbe.v2i3.2318 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 2 (3) ◽

pp. 288

Author(s):

Dimas Satriadi

Keyword(s):

Service Quality ◽

Public Service ◽

Quantitative Methods ◽

Quality Service ◽

Data Collecting ◽

Service Institution ◽

Better Than

The quality of public service is an important and it must have bye the each public service institution. Includes the library as a public service institution giving service for the all visitors. This research aims to know the comparisation of Kepri Province Libraries quality service and Tanjungpinang City Libraries quality service. The method used in this research is quantitative methods with questionnaire to 40 responden as samples. This questionnaire as an data collecting instruments. These results indicate the quality of two libraries is good. But, if they compared the service quality of Province Kepri Libraries is better than Tanjungpinang City Libraries. This look from average scored results is 152,61 points for Kepri Province Libraries, and 150,66 points for Tanjungpinang City Libraries, in the good categoriesKualitas pelayanan publik merupakan hal yang penting dan harus dimiliki oleh masing-masing lembaga pelayanan publik. Termasuk perpustakaan sebagai lembaga pelayanan publik yang memberikan pelayanan kepada semua pengunjung. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui perbandingan kualitas layanan Perpustakaan Provinsi Kepri dan kualitas pelayanan Perpustakaan Kota Tanjungpinang. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode kuantitatif dengan 40 responden sebagai sampel. Kuesioner ini sebagai alat pengumpul data. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan kualitas kedua perpustakaan suda bagus. Tapi jika dibandingkan kualitas pelayanan Perpustakaan Provinsi Kepri lebih baik dari pada Perpustakaan Kota Tanjungpinang. Hasil dari hasil rata-rata ini adalah 152,61 poin untuk Perpustakaan Kepri Province, dan 150,66 poin untuk Perpustakaan Kota Tanjungpinang, dalam kategori baik.

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Performance Evaluation of IMERG GPM Products during Tropical Storm Imelda

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos12060687 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (6) ◽

pp. 687

Author(s):

Salman Sakib ◽

Dawit Ghebreyesus ◽

Hatim O. Sharif

Keyword(s):

Stage Iv ◽

Tropical Storm ◽

Average Correlation ◽

Acceptable Range ◽

Precipitation Estimates ◽

Overall Performance ◽

Early Late ◽

Statistical Metrics ◽

Better Than

Tropical Storm Imelda struck the southeast coastal regions of Texas from 17–19 September, 2019, and delivered precipitation above 500 mm over about 6000 km2. The performance of the three IMERG (Early-, Late-, and Final-run) GPM satellite-based precipitation products was evaluated against Stage-IV radar precipitation estimates. Basic and probabilistic statistical metrics, such as CC, RSME, RBIAS, POD, FAR, CSI, and PSS were employed to assess the performance of the IMERG products. The products captured the event adequately, with a fairly high POD value of 0.9. The best product (Early-run) showed an average correlation coefficient of 0.60. The algorithm used to produce the Final-run improved the quality of the data by removing systematic errors that occurred in the near-real-time products. Less than 5 mm RMSE error was experienced in over three-quarters (ranging from 73% to 76%) of the area by all three IMERG products in estimating the Tropical Storm Imelda. The Early-run product showed a much better RBIAS relatively to the Final-run product. The overall performance was poor, as areas with an acceptable range of RBIAS (i.e., between −10% and 10%) in all the three IMERG products were only 16% to 17% of the total area. Overall, the Early-run product was found to be better than Late- and Final-run.

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