Variability of Water Balance under Climate Change Scenarios. Implications for Sustainability in the Rhône River Basin

The Rhône basin is considered a complex river socio-ecological system, which houses numerous socioeconomic activities closely linked to its river courses, as well as competition between the different users of these water resources. Likewise, its increasing vulnerability to climate change highlights the need to assess the potential effects of a set of climate scenarios to assist the management of these resources. With this aim, we have analysed the effects of five scenarios on different environmental zones of the basin characterised by altitudinal features, using the “Water Yield” hydrological module of the InVEST model. The model outputs show that the Rhône basin will have significant discharge water variations and changes in the seasonality of the hydrological regime, being able to trigger serious economic and environmental effects under the simulated scenarios. Regarding these altitudinal environmental zones, results show important differences in the final water balance, resulting in the mountain and subalpine zones being the most affected by these scenarios. The uncertainty in the availability of water resources and the need for its sustainable management will require the establishment of important adaptations to the new challenges imposed by these scenarios, particularly in alpine zones, due to its sensitivity and fragility to climate change.

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Modeling hydrologic processes and potential responses to climate change in an agro-silvo-pastoral watershed in the Mediterranean area

Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences ◽

10.5194/piahs-383-151-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 383 ◽

pp. 151-158

Author(s):

Youssef Brouziyne ◽

Lahcen Benaabidate ◽

Aziz Abouabdillah ◽

Rachid Bouabid ◽

Abdelghani Chehbouni

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Water Balance ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Flow Direction ◽

Swat Model ◽

Water Yield ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Hydrologic Processes

Abstract. Precipitation changes and water use patterns are two factors affecting the water quantity; obviously, hydrologic processes are always linked to many elements in the watershed scale, so to understand water management issues it is fundamental to analyze the different elements of hydrologic processes occurring in the watershed. In this study, the “SWAT” model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) has been used to simulate the water balance for the present climate conditions on a semi arid watershed located in the central North of Morocco (R'dom). The study watershed covers an area of 1993 km2, and is hosting farming, pasture and forestry related activities. The water stress situation in the R'dom watershed can be summarized as limited resource facing increasing water demand. SWAT model was first run and calibrated under current climate; and was driven with downscaled climate simulations to generate future hydrological projections for R'dom watershed in the 2031 to 2050 horizon under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): 4.5 and 8.5. The results of the study showed that the water balance in R'dom watershed is dominated by evapotranspiration and the water resources distribution within the watershed is uneven and follows a decreasing gradient matching the flow direction. The main results of climate change scenarios showed that R'dom watershed will undergo significant decrease of water resources availability with more economic impact under the scenario RCP8.5 as all areas hosting the economical activities will be affected and the highest changes of water yield should be under this scenario.

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The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC) on Water Resources in a Tropical Catchment in Tanzania under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11247083 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (24) ◽

pp. 7083 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Kristian Näschen ◽

Bernd Diekkrüger ◽

Mariele Evers ◽

Britta Höllermann ◽

Stefanie Steinbach ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Resources ◽

Land Cover ◽

Water Balance ◽

Land Cover Change ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Land Use Land Cover ◽

The Impact

Many parts of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are prone to land use and land cover change (LULCC). In many cases, natural systems are converted into agricultural land to feed the growing population. However, despite climate change being a major focus nowadays, the impacts of these conversions on water resources, which are essential for agricultural production, is still often neglected, jeopardizing the sustainability of the socio-ecological system. This study investigates historic land use/land cover (LULC) patterns as well as potential future LULCC and its effect on water quantities in a complex tropical catchment in Tanzania. It then compares the results using two climate change scenarios. The Land Change Modeler (LCM) is used to analyze and to project LULC patterns until 2030 and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is utilized to simulate the water balance under various LULC conditions. Results show decreasing low flows by 6–8% for the LULC scenarios, whereas high flows increase by up to 84% for the combined LULC and climate change scenarios. The effect of climate change is stronger compared to the effect of LULCC, but also contains higher uncertainties. The effects of LULCC are more distinct, although crop specific effects show diverging effects on water balance components. This study develops a methodology for quantifying the impact of land use and climate change and therefore contributes to the sustainable management of the investigated catchment, as it shows the impact of environmental change on hydrological extremes (low flow and floods) and determines hot spots, which are critical for environmental development.

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Water resources availability under different climate change scenarios in South East of Iran

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2021.373 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Reza Iranmanesh ◽

Navid Jalalkamali ◽

Omid Tayari

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Food Security ◽

Water Resources ◽

Water Balance ◽

Swat Model ◽

Green Water ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Available Water ◽

East Of Iran ◽

The Impact

Abstract The comprehensive large-scale assessment of future available water resources is crucial for food security in countries dealing with water shortages like Iran. Kerman province, located in the south east of Iran, is an agricultural hub and has vital importance for food security. This study attempts to project the impact of climate change on available water resources of this province and then, by defining different scenarios, to determine the amount of necessary reduction in cultivation areas to achieve water balance over the province. The GFDL-ESM2M climate change model, RCP scenarios, and the CCT (Climate Change Toolkit) were used to project changes in climatic variables, and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for hydrological simulation. The future period for which forecasts are made is 2020–2050. Based on the coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient, the CCT demonstrates good performance in data downscaling. The results show that under all climate change scenarios, most parts of the province are likely to experience an increase in precipitation yet to achieve water balance a 10% decrease in the cultivation area is necessary under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results of the SWAT model show that green water storage in central and western parts of the province is higher than that in other parts.

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Water balance of an extensive alpine catchment area under the effect of climate change

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-10364 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Roberta Perico ◽

Paolo Frattini ◽

Marco Celesti ◽

Roberto Colombo ◽

Giovanni Battista Crosta

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Water Balance ◽

Snow Cover ◽

Hydrological Regime ◽

Northern Italy ◽

Groundwater Storage ◽

Alpine Catchments ◽

The Impact

The recognized evidence of global warming demands assessment of the present and future water cycle in Europe and worldwide. Recently, evidence of modified hydrological regime in the Alps under climate change has been documented. In particular, several studies (e.g. Bocchiola, 2014; Soncini et al. 2016) indicated an increase in hydrological flows in autumn and winter in response to snowfall trading with intense rainfall, shorter snow cover during winter, as well as decreased flows during dry spring and summer and large shrinking of glaciers at high altitude. However, according to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, it is still necessary to deepen our understanding of the impact of climate change and land use on groundwater recharge and levels in the alpine catchment areas (Cochand et al. 2019).For this purpose, a water balance of the last three hydrogeological years (March 2017 - March 2020) was carried out on the Valtellina catchment (northern Italy, Central Italian Alps). This basin is a perfect case study for its wide unconfined aquifer in the floodplain, which makes it highly sensitive to this type of change. Moreover, the management of the water resource is of considerable importance, being crucial in a wide range of sectors (tourism, irrigation, domestic use, energy and industry).Due to the extensive and diversified study area (26,000 km2) and the low ground data density (7 meteorological stations, 4 surface-water monitoring points, and 9 groundwater monitoring points), the water balance terms were estimated by exploiting and combining Earth Observation data products with ground data, also taking into account the geological and geomorphological characteristics of the basin. In particular, the evapotranspiration and the snow cover were provided, by MOD16A2 (MODIS/Terra Evapotranspiration 8-Day Level-4 Global 500m SIN Grid) and MOD10A2 (MODIS/Terra Snow Cover 8-Day L3 Global 500m SIN Grid, Version 6) satellite data, respectively.As a result, the groundwater storage of a wet hydrogeological year compared with the groundwater storage of a dry hydrogeological year allowed analysing the sensitivity of groundwater resources to climate change.&#160;Bocchiola, D.: Long term (1921&#8211;2011) Hydrological regime of Alpine catchments in Northern Italy. Advances in Water Resources, 70, 51-64, 2014.Cochand, M., Christe, P., Ornstein, P., & Hunkeler, D.: Groundwater storage in high alpine catchments and its contribution to streamflow. Water Resources Research, 55(4), 2613-2630, 2019.Soncini, A., Bocchiola, D., Confortola, G., Minora, U., Vuillermoz, E., Salerno, F., Viviano, G., Shrestha, D., Senese, A., Smiraglia, C. and Diolaiuti, G.A.: Future hydrological regimes and glacier cover in the Everest region: The case study of the upper Dudh Koshi basin. Science of the Total Environment, 565, 1084-1101, 2016.

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WATER RESOURCES STATUS AND AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT IN CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR BEAS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH WESTERN HIMALAYA

ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences ◽

10.5194/isprs-archives-xli-b8-1389-2016 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol XLI-B8 ◽

pp. 1389-1396 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

S. P. Aggarwal ◽

P. K. Thakur ◽

V. Garg ◽

B. R. Nikam ◽

A. Chouksey ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Water Balance ◽

River Basin ◽

Hydrological Modelling ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Water Balance Components ◽

Vic Model

The water resources status and availability of any river basin is of primary importance for overall and sustainable development of any river basin. This study has been done in Beas river basin which is located in North Western Himalaya for assessing the status of water resources in present and future climate change scenarios. In this study hydrological modelling approach has been used for quantifying the water balance components of Beas river basin upto Pandoh. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model has been used in energy balance mode for Beas river basin at 1km grid scale. The VIC model has been run with snow elevation zones files to simulate the snow module of VIC. The model was run with National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) forcing data (Tmax, Tmin, Rainfall and wind speed at 0.5degree resolution) from 1 Jan. 1999 to 31 Dec 2006 for calibration purpose. The additional component of glacier melt was added into overall river runoff using semi-empirical approach utilizing air temperature and glacier type and extent data. The ground water component is computed from overall recharge of ground water by water balance approach. The overall water balance approach is validated with river discharge data provided by Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB) from 1994-2014. VIC routing module was used to assess pixel wise flow availability at daily, monthly and annual time scales. The mean monthly flow at Pandoh during study period varied from 19 - 1581 m3/s from VIC and 50 to 1556 m3/sec from observation data, with minimum water flow occurring in month of January and maximum flow in month of August with annual R2 of 0.68. The future climate change data is taken from CORDEX database. The climate model of NOAA-GFDL-ESM2M for IPCC RCP scenario 4.5 and 8.5 were used for South Asia at 0.44 deg. grid from year 2006 to 2100. The climate forcing data for VIC model was prepared using daily maximum and minimum near surface air temperature, daily precipitation and daily surface wind speed. The GFDL model also gives validation phase scenarios from 2006 to 2015, which are used to test the overall model performance with current data. The current assessment made by hydrological water balance based approach has given reasonable good results in Beas river basin. The main limitation of this study is lack of full representation of glacier melt flow using fully energy balance model. This component will be addressed in coming time and it will be integrated with tradition hydrological and snowmelt runoff models. The other limitation of current study is dependence on NCEP or other reanalysis of climate forcing data for hydrological modelling, this leads to mismatch between actual and simulated water balance components. This problem can be addressed if more ground based and fine resolution grid based hydro meteorological data are used as input forcing data for hydrological modelling.

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Using the InVEST Model to Assess the Impacts of Climate and Land Use Changes on Water Yield in the Upstream Regions of the Shule River Basin

Water ◽

10.3390/w13091250 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (9) ◽

pp. 1250

Author(s):

Peijie Wei ◽

Shengyun Chen ◽

Minghui Wu ◽

Yanfang Deng ◽

Haojie Xu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Resources ◽

High Altitude ◽

River Basin ◽

Tibet Plateau ◽

Water Yield ◽

Lulc Change ◽

Lulc Changes ◽

Invest Model

Water yield is a key ecosystem function, directly impacting the sustainable development of the basin economy and ecosystem. Climate and land use/land cover (LULC) changes are the main driving factors affecting water yield. In the context of global climate change, assessing the impacts of climate and LULC changes on water yield in the alpine regions of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) is essential for formulating rational management and development strategies for water resources. On the basis of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, we simulated and analyzed the spatiotemporal variations and the impacts of LULC and climate changes on water yield from 2001 to 2019 in the upstream regions of the Shule River Basin (USRB) on the northeastern margin of the QTP. Three scenarios were designed in the InVEST model to clearly analyze the contributions of climate and LULC changes on the variation of water yield. The first scenario integrated climate and LULC change into the model according to the actual conditions. The second scenario was simulation without LULC change, and the third scenario was without climate change. The results showed that (1) the InVEST model had a good performance in estimating water yield (coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.986; root mean square error (RMSE) = 3.012, p < 0.05); (2) the water yield significantly increased in the temporal scale from 2001 to 2019, especially in the high altitude of the marginal regions (accounting for 32.01%), while the northwest regions significantly decreased and accounted for only 8.39% (p < 0.05); (3) the spatial distribution of water yield increased from the middle low-altitude regions to the marginal high-altitude regions; and (4) through the analysis of the three scenarios, the impact of climate change on water yield was 90.56%, while that of LULC change was only 9.44%. This study reveals that climate warming has a positive impact on water yield, which will provide valuable references for the integrated assessment and management of water resources in the Shule River Basin.

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Soil salinization under different climate change scenarios: A global scale analysis

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13668 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Nima Shokri ◽

Amirhossein Hassani ◽

Adisa Azapagic

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Soil Salinity ◽

Global Scale ◽

Soil Salinization ◽

Water Evaporation ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

Salt Affected Soils

Population growth and climate change is projected to increase the pressure on land and water resources, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. This pressure is expected to affect all driving mechanisms of soil salinization comprising alteration in soil hydrological balance, sea salt intrusion, wet/dry deposition of wind-born saline aerosols &#8212; leading to an increase in soil salinity. Soil salinity influences soil stability, bio-diversity, ecosystem functioning and soil water evaporation (1). It can be a long-term threat to agricultural activities and food security. To devise sustainable action plan investments and policy interventions, it is crucial to know when and where salt-affected soils occur. However, current estimates on spatio-temporal variability of salt-affected soils are majorly localized and future projections in response to climate change are rare. Using Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, we related the available measured soil salinity values (represented by electrical conductivity of the saturated paste soil extract, ECe) to some environmental information (or predictors including outputs of Global Circulation Models, soil, crop, topographic, climatic, vegetative, and landscape properties of the sampling locations) to develop a set of data-driven predictive tools to enable the spatio-temporal predictions of soil salinity. The outputs of these tools helped us to estimate the extent and severity of the soil salinity under current and future climatic patterns at different geographical levels and identify the salinization hotspots by the end of the 21st century in response to climate change. Our analysis suggests that a soil area of 11.73 Mkm2 located in non-frigid zones has been salt-affected in at least three-fourths of the 1980 - 2018 period (2). At the country level, Brazil, Peru, Sudan, Colombia, and Namibia were estimated to have the highest rates of annual increase in the total area of soils with an ECe &#8805; 4 dS m-1. Additionally, the results indicate that by the end of the 21st century, drylands of South America, southern and Western Australia, Mexico, southwest United States, and South Africa will be the salinization hotspots (compared to the 1961 - 1990 period). The results of this study could inform decision-making and contribute to attaining the United Nation&#8217;s Sustainable Development Goals for land and water resources management.1. Shokri-Kuehni, S.M.S., Raaijmakers, B., Kurz, T., Or, D., Helmig, R., Shokri, N. (2020). Water Table Depth and Soil Salinization: From Pore-Scale Processes to Field-Scale Responses. Water Resour. Res., 56, e2019WR026707. https://doi.org/ 10.1029/2019WR0267072. Hassani, A., Azapagic, A., Shokri, N. (2020). Predicting Long-term Dynamics of Soil Salinity and Sodicity on a Global Scale, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 117, 52, 33017&#8211;33027. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2013771117

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Estimation of Water Storage Changes in Small Endorheic Lakes in Northern Kazakhstan; The Effect of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Influences

10.20944/preprints201712.0045.v1 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Vadim Yapiyev ◽

Kanat Samarkhanov ◽

Dauren Zhumabayev ◽

Nazym Tulegenova ◽

Saltanat Jumassultanova ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Remote Sensing ◽

Water Resources ◽

Water Balance ◽

Climate Model ◽

Human Impacts ◽

Water Storage ◽

Minor Importance ◽

Climatic Data

Both climate change and anthropogenic activities contribute to the deterioration of terrestrial water resources and ecosystems worldwide. Central Asian endorheic basins are among the most affected regions through both climate and human impacts. Here, we used a digital elevation model, digitized bathymetry maps and Landsat images to estimate the areal water cover extent and volumetric storage changes in small terminal lakes in Burabay National Nature Park (BNNP), located in Northern Central Asia (CA), for the period of 1986 to 2016. Based on the analysis of long-term climatic data from meteorological stations, short-term hydrometeorological network observations, gridded climate datasets (CRU) and global atmospheric reanalysis (ERA Interim), we have evaluated the impacts of historical climatic conditions on the water balance of BNNP lake catchments. We also discuss the future based on regional climate model projections. We attribute the overall decline of BNNP lakes to long-term deficit of water balance with lake evaporation loss exceeding precipitation inputs. Direct anthropogenic water abstraction has a minor importance in water balance. However, the changes in watersheds caused by the expansion of human settlements and roads disrupting water drainage may play a more significant role in lake water storage decline. More precise water resources assessment at the local scale will be facilitated by further development of freely available higher spatial resolution remote sensing products. In addition, the results of this work can be used for the development of lake/reservoir evaporation models driven by remote sensing and atmospheric reanalysis data without the direct use of ground observations.

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A Hydrological Modeling Approach for Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff Regimes in Slovakia

Water ◽

10.3390/w13233358 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (23) ◽

pp. 3358

Author(s):

Patrik Sleziak ◽

Roman Výleta ◽

Kamila Hlavčová ◽

Michaela Danáčová ◽

Milica Aleksić ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Hydrological Modeling ◽

Performance Metrics ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Reference Period ◽

Changing Climate ◽

Time Horizons ◽

The Future

The changing climate is a concern with regard to sustainable water resources. Projections of the runoff in future climate conditions are needed for long-term planning of water resources and flood protection. In this study, we evaluate the possible climate change impacts on the runoff regime in eight selected basins located in the whole territory of Slovakia. The projected runoff in the basins studied for the reference period (1981–2010) and three future time horizons (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) was simulated using the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) bucket-type model (the TUW (Technische Universität Wien) model). A calibration strategy based on the selection of the most suitable decade in the observation period for the parameterization of the model was applied. The model was first calibrated using observations, and then was driven by the precipitation and air temperatures projected by the KNMI (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut) and MPI (Max Planck Institute) regional climate models (RCM) under the A1B emission scenario. The model’s performance metrics and a visual inspection showed that the simulated runoff using downscaled inputs from both RCM models for the reference period represents the simulated hydrological regimes well. An evaluation of the future, which was performed by considering the representative climate change scenarios, indicated that changes in the long-term runoff’s seasonality and extremality could be expected in the future. In the winter months, the runoff should increase, and decrease in the summer months compared to the reference period. The maximum annual daily runoff could be more extreme for the later time horizons (according to the KNMI scenario for 2071–2100). The results from this study could be useful for policymakers and river basin authorities for the optimum planning and management of water resources under a changing climate.

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Contrasting climate change impact on river flows from high-altitude catchments in the Himalayan and Andes Mountains

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ◽

10.1073/pnas.1606526113 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 113 (33) ◽

pp. 9222-9227 ◽

Cited By ~ 67

Author(s):

Silvan Ragettli ◽

Walter W. Immerzeel ◽

Francesca Pellicciotti

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

High Altitude ◽

Water Availability ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

River Flow ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Glacier Area ◽

Spatiotemporal Resolution ◽

Change Impact

Mountain ranges are the world’s natural water towers and provide water resources for millions of people. However, their hydrological balance and possible future changes in river flow remain poorly understood because of high meteorological variability, physical inaccessibility, and the complex interplay between climate, cryosphere, and hydrological processes. Here, we use a state-of-the art glacio-hydrological model informed by data from high-altitude observations and the latest climate change scenarios to quantify the climate change impact on water resources of two contrasting catchments vulnerable to changes in the cryosphere. The two study catchments are located in the Central Andes of Chile and in the Nepalese Himalaya in close vicinity of densely populated areas. Although both sites reveal a strong decrease in glacier area, they show a remarkably different hydrological response to projected climate change. In the Juncal catchment in Chile, runoff is likely to sharply decrease in the future and the runoff seasonality is sensitive to projected climatic changes. In the Langtang catchment in Nepal, future water availability is on the rise for decades to come with limited shifts between seasons. Owing to the high spatiotemporal resolution of the simulations and process complexity included in the modeling, the response times and the mechanisms underlying the variations in glacier area and river flow can be well constrained. The projections indicate that climate change adaptation in Central Chile should focus on dealing with a reduction in water availability, whereas in Nepal preparedness for flood extremes should be the policy priority.

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