Modeling Subtropical Forest Changes under Climate Change and Close-to-Nature Silviculture: Is There a Tipping Point in an Uncertain Future in Southern China?

Subtropical forests face pressure from both rapidly changing climate and increasing harvest activity in southern China. However, the interactive effects of various spatial processes on forests are not well known. The objective of the present study was to answer the question of how forest aboveground biomass (AGB) changes under alternative climate change and harvesting scenarios and to determine whether there will be a tipping point for forest AGB before 2300. Our simulation results show that, although total forest AGB did not reach a tipping point before 2300 under possible climate change and harvesting scenarios, the slope of the total forest AGB showed a decreasing trend around 2100 and 2200. Moderate climate warming was conducive to AGB accumulation, except for in the high emissions Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) scenario. Our results also indicate that timber harvesting is adaptable to the accumulation of biomass under climate change scenarios. Harvesting intensity was a key variable affecting forest AGB more than harvesting frequency. Our findings will help develop more sustainable forest management strategies that can adapt to potential climate change scenarios, as well as determining the effectiveness of implementing alternative forest harvesting policies.

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The Influence of Climate and Land-Cover Scenarios on Dam Management Strategies in a High Water Pressure Catchment in Northeast Spain

Water ◽

10.3390/w10111668 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (11) ◽

pp. 1668 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

J. Zabalza-Martínez ◽

S. Vicente-Serrano ◽

J. López-Moreno ◽

G. Borràs Calvo ◽

R. Savé ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Management ◽

Land Cover ◽

Water Pressure ◽

Management Strategies ◽

High Water ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Dam Management ◽

Dam Inflow ◽

Similar Decrease

This paper evaluates the response of streamflow in a Mediterranean medium-scaled basin under land-use and climate change scenarios and its plausible implication on the management of Boadella–Darnius reservoir (NE Spain). Land cover and climate change scenarios supposed over the next several decades were used to simulate reservoir inflow using the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESsys) and to analyze the future impacts on water management (2021–2050). Results reveal a clear decrease in dam inflow (−34%) since the dam was operational from 1971 to 2013. The simulations obtained with RHESsys show a similar decrease (−31%) from 2021 to 2050. Considering the ecological minimum flow outlined by water authorities and the projected decrease in reservoir’s inflows, different water management strategies are needed to mitigate the effects of the expected climate change.

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The impact of drought on tree growth in Mediterranean sites

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8635 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Giovanna Battipaglia ◽

Francesco Niccoli ◽

Arturo Pacheco-Solana

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tree Growth ◽

Sustainable Forest Management ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Ring Width ◽

Limiting Factor ◽

Individual Tree ◽

Annual Growth Rings ◽

The Impact

Climate-induced forest mortality is a critical issue in the Mediterranean basin, with major consequences for the functioning of these key ecosystems. Indeed, in Mediterranean ecosystems, where water stress is already the most limiting factor for tree performance, climatic changes are expected to entail an increase in water deficit. In this context, annual growth rings can provide short- (e.g., years) and long-term (e.g., decades) information on how trees respond to drought events. With climate change, Pinus pinaster and Pinus pinea L. are expected to reduce their distribution range in the region, being displaced at low altitudes by more drought tolerant taxa such as sub Mediterranean Quercus spp.This study aims was to assess the physiological response of Pinus and Quercus species growing in the Vesuvio National park, located in Southern Italy and where an increase of temperature and drought events has been recorded in the recent years. Our preliminary results underlined the importance of temperature on the tree ring width of all the analyses species. The high temperatures can cause a change in the constant kinetics of the RuBisCo, leading to a consequent decrease in carboxylation rate and thus to a reduction in tree growth. On the other hand, also precipitation seemed to affect the growth of the sampled trees: indeed, in all the chronologies a reduction in growth was found after particular dry years: for example, the low rainfall in 1999 (455 mm/year) determined a drastic decline in growth in 2000 in all the species. In addition to the climatic factors, competition can also play an important role in the growth rate: dendrochronological analyzes have highlighted how stand specific properties (i.e. density, structure and composition) can influence individual tree responses to drought events. The knowledge of those researches should be integrated into sustainable forest management strategies to minimize the potential impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems.

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Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Euscaphis japonica (Staphyleaceae) Trees

Forests ◽

10.3390/f11050525 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (5) ◽

pp. 525

Author(s):

Keliang Zhang ◽

Lanping Sun ◽

Jun Tao

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Policy Development ◽

Performance Metrics ◽

Southern China ◽

Eastern China ◽

Individual Species ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

The North ◽

Temperature And Precipitation

Analyzing the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems and individual species is of great significance for incorporating management responses to conservation policy development. Euscaphis japonica (Staphyleaceae), a small tree or deciduous shrub, is distributed among the open forests or mountainous valleys of Vietnam, Korea, Japan, and southern China. Meanwhile, it is also used as a medicinal and ornamental plant. Nonetheless, the extents of E. japonica forest have gradually shrunk as a result of deforestation, together with the regional influence of climate change. The present study employed two methods for modeling species distribution, Maxent and Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP), to model the potential distribution of this species and the effects of climate change on it. Our results suggest that both models performed favorably, but GARP outperformed Maxent for all performance metrics. The temperate and subtropical regions of eastern China where the species had been recorded was very suitable for E. japonica growth. Temperature and precipitation were two primary environmental factors affecting the distribution of E. japonica. Under climate change scenarios, the range of suitable habitats for E. japonica will expand geographically toward the north. Our findings may be used in several ways such as identifying currently undocumented locations of E. japonica, sites where it may occur in the future, or potential locations where the species could be introduced and so contribute to the conservation and management of this species.

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Invasion-mediated effects on marine trophic interactions in a changing climate: positive feedbacks favour kelp persistence

Proceedings of The Royal Society B Biological Sciences ◽

10.1098/rspb.2018.2866 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 286 (1899) ◽

pp. 20182866 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Ricardo J. Miranda ◽

Melinda A. Coleman ◽

Alejandro Tagliafico ◽

Maria S. Rangel ◽

Lea T. Mamo ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Trophic Interactions ◽

Multiple Stressors ◽

Grazing Intensity ◽

Ocean Warming ◽

Interactive Effects ◽

Ecological Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Ecological Consequences ◽

Management Actions

The interactive effects of ocean warming and invasive species are complex and remain a source of uncertainty for projecting future ecological change. Climate-mediated change to trophic interactions can have pervasive ecological consequences, but the role of invasion in mediating trophic effects is largely unstudied. Using manipulative experiments in replicated outdoor mesocosms, we reveal how near-future ocean warming and macrophyte invasion scenarios interactively impact gastropod grazing intensity and preference for consumption of foundation macroalgae ( Ecklonia radiata and Sargassum vestitum ). Elevated water temperature increased the consumption of both macroalgae through greater grazing intensity. Given the documented decline of kelp ( E. radiata ) growth at higher water temperatures, enhanced grazing could contribute to the shift from kelp-dominated to Sargassum -dominated reefs that is occurring at the low-latitude margins of kelp distribution. However, the presence of a native invader ( Caulerpa filiformis ) was related to low consumption by the herbivores on dominant kelp at warmer temperatures. Thus, antagonistic effects between climate change and a range expanding species can favour kelp persistence in a warmer future. Introduction of species should, therefore, not automatically be considered unfavourable under climate change scenarios. Climatic changes are increasing the need for effective management actions to address the interactive effects of multiple stressors and their ecological consequences, rather than single threats in isolation.

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The response of Bonis Catchment in Calabria –Southern Italy to different management options under climate change scenarios.

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-10136 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Mouna Feki ◽

Giovanni Ravazzani ◽

Tommaso Caloiero ◽

Gaetano Pellicone

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Southern Italy ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Distributed Hydrological Model ◽

Management Scenarios ◽

Management Options ◽

Mountain Area ◽

Small Catchment

Forests ecosystems provide several ecosystem services among which the regulation of the hydrological cycle. These ecosystems are exposed to different forms of disturbances induced by human activities, management strategies, and climate change. The objective of INNOMED project, for the Italian case study, is to understand the response of forest to different silvicultural practices under climate change conditions. The study site is the the Bonis catchment located in the mountain area of Sila Greca (39&#176;25&#8217;15&#8217;&#8217;N, 16&#176;12&#8217;38&#8217;&#8217;W), in the Calabria region (southern Italy). This small catchment has a surface of 1.39 km2 and a mean elevation of 1131 m above sea level. Almost 93% of the total area is covered by forest stand, dominated by about 50-year-old Calabrian pine (Pinus laricio Poiret) forests. In order to simulate the response of the catchment to different climate and management scenarios, FEST-WB distributed hydrological model was used. Within the framework of this project, FEST-FOREST module has been implemented in order to consider vegetation dynamics interactions with the hydrological response of the watershed. Since 1986, the basin was monitored through the installation of different instruments. Rainfall was measured by three rain gauges (with a tipping bucket) together with temperature that were measured at three different meteorological stations. In May 2003, a tower for measurement of eddy fluxes was installed at an altitude of 1100 m a.s.l, on a 54 years old plantation of Laricio pine which allowed monitoring of other parameters. Runoff was measured at the outlet of the catchment using a gauging structure. These data were used for the calibration and validation of the model before being implemented for future scenarios simulations. The results of these simulations delivered the potential impacts and the vulnerability of the Bonis catchment to different scenarios. These outcomes provide for the stakeholders a scientifically based and solid information for a sustainable management of the catchment.

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Modeling the current distribution suitability and future dynamics of Culicoides imicola under climate change scenarios

PeerJ ◽

10.7717/peerj.12308 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

pp. e12308

Author(s):

Hongyan Gao ◽

Long Wang ◽

Jun Ma ◽

Xiang Gao ◽

Jianhua Xiao ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Current Distribution ◽

Habitat Suitability ◽

Southern China ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

African Horse Sickness ◽

Vector Surveillance ◽

Culicoides Imicola

Background African horse sickness, a transboundary and non-contagious arboviral infectious disease of equids, has spread without any warning from sub-Saharan Africa towards the Southeast Asian countries in 2020. It is imperative to predict the global distribution of Culicoides imicola (C. imicola), which was the main vector of African horse sickness virus. Methods The occurrence records of C. imicola were mainly obtained from the published literature and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database. The maximum entropy algorithm was used to model the current distribution suitability and future dynamics of C. imicola under climate change scenarios. Results The modeling results showed that the currently suitable habitats for C. imicola were distributed in most of the southern part areas of America, southwestern Europe, most of Africa, the coastal areas of the Middle East, almost all regions of South Asia, southern China, a few countries in Southeast Asia, and the whole Australia. Our model also revealed the important environmental variables on the distribution of C. imicola were temperature seasonality, precipitation of coldest quarter, and mean temperature of wettest quarter. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) is an assumption of possible greenhouse gases emissions in the future. Under future climate change scenarios, the area of habitat suitability increased and decreased with time, and RCP 8.5 in the 2070s gave the worst prediction. Moreover, the habitat suitability of C. imicola will likely expand to higher latitudes. The prediction of this study is of strategic significance for vector surveillance and the prevention of vector-borne diseases.

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Long-Term Variability in Potential Evapotranspiration, Water Availability and Drought under Climate Change Scenarios in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos11090883 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (9) ◽

pp. 883 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Mahtsente Tadese ◽

Lalit Kumar ◽

Richard Koech

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Water Availability ◽

Potential Evapotranspiration ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Water Shortage ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Awash River Basin ◽

Mitigate Climate Change

Understanding the hydrological processes of a watershed in response to climate change is vital to the establishment of sustainable environmental management strategies. This study aimed to evaluate the variability of potential evapotranspiration (PET) and water availability in the Awash River Basin (ARB) under different climate change scenarios and to relate these with long-term drought occurrences in the area. The PET and water availability of the ARB was estimated during the period of 1995–2009 and two future scenarios (2050s and 2070s). The representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) simulations showed an increase in the monthly mean PET from March to August in the 2050s, and all the months in the 2070s. The study also identified a shortage of net water availability in the majority of the months investigated and the occurrence of mild to extreme drought in about 40–50% of the analysed years at the three study locations (Holetta, Koka Dam, and Metehara). The decrease in water availability and an increase in PET, combined with population growth, will aggravate the drought occurrence and food insecurity in the ARB. Therefore, integrated watershed management systems and rehabilitation of forests, as well as water bodies, should be addressed in the ARB to mitigate climate change and water shortage in the area.

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Temperature, but not pH, compromises sea urchin fertilization and early development under near-future climate change scenarios

Proceedings of The Royal Society B Biological Sciences ◽

10.1098/rspb.2008.1935 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 276 (1663) ◽

pp. 1883-1888 ◽

Cited By ~ 181

Author(s):

Maria Byrne ◽

Melanie Ho ◽

Paulina Selvakumaraswamy ◽

Hong D. Nguyen ◽

Symon A. Dworjanyn ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Urchin ◽

Ocean Warming ◽

Future Climate ◽

Interactive Effects ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Marine Biota ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Eastern Australia ◽

Near Future

Global warming is causing ocean warming and acidification. The distribution of Heliocidaris erythrogramma coincides with the eastern Australia climate change hot spot, where disproportionate warming makes marine biota particularly vulnerable to climate change. In keeping with near-future climate change scenarios, we determined the interactive effects of warming and acidification on fertilization and development of this echinoid. Experimental treatments (20–26°C, pH 7.6–8.2) were tested in all combinations for the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, with 20°C/pH 8.2 being ambient. Percentage of fertilization was high (>89%) across all treatments. There was no difference in percentage of normal development in any pH treatment. In elevated temperature conditions, +4°C reduced cleavage by 40 per cent and +6°C by a further 20 per cent. Normal gastrulation fell below 4 per cent at +6°C. At 26°C, development was impaired. As the first study of interactive effects of temperature and pH on sea urchin development, we confirm the thermotolerance and pH resilience of fertilization and embryogenesis within predicted climate change scenarios, with negative effects at upper limits of ocean warming. Our findings place single stressor studies in context and emphasize the need for experiments that address ocean warming and acidification concurrently. Although ocean acidification research has focused on impaired calcification, embryos may not reach the skeletogenic stage in a warm ocean.

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Including climate change in pest risk assessment: the peach fruit fly,Bactrocera zonata(Diptera: Tephritidae)

Bulletin of Entomological Research ◽

10.1017/s0007485311000538 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 102 (2) ◽

pp. 173-183 ◽

Cited By ~ 22

Author(s):

W.L. Ni ◽

Z.H. Li ◽

H.J. Chen ◽

F.H. Wan ◽

W.W. Qu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

Southern China ◽

Fruit Fly ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Southeastern Australia ◽

Bactrocera Zonata ◽

The Usa ◽

Pest Risk

AbstractBactrocera zonata(Saunders) is one of the most harmful species of Tephritidae. It causes extensive damage in Asia and threatens many countries located along or near the Mediterranean Sea. The climate mapping program, CLIMEX 3.0, and the GIS software, ArcGIS 9.3, were used to model the current and future potential geographical distribution ofB. zonata. The model predicts that, under current climatic conditions,B. zonatawill be able to establish itself throughout much of the tropics and subtropics, including some parts of the USA, southern China, southeastern Australia and northern New Zealand. Climate change scenarios for the 2070s indicate that the potential distribution ofB. zonatawill expand poleward into areas which are currently too cold. The main factors limiting the pest's range expansion are cold, hot and dry stress. The model's predictions of the numbers of generations produced annually byB. zonatawere consistent with values previously recorded for the pest's occurrence in Egypt. The ROC curve and the AUC (an AUC of 0.912) were obtained to evaluate the performance of the CLIMEX model in this study. The analysis of this information indicated a high degree of accuracy for the CLIMEX model. The significant increases in the potential distribution ofB. zonataprojected under the climate change scenarios considered in this study suggest that biosecurity authorities should consider the effects of climate change when undertaking pest risk assessments. To prevent the introduction and spread ofB. zonata, enhanced quarantine and monitoring measures should be implemented in areas that are projected to be suitable for the establishment of the pest under current and future climatic conditions.

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A Decision Support System for Sustainable Forest Management and Ecosystem Service Provisioning at the Enterprise Scale

Environmental Sciences Proceedings ◽

10.3390/iecf2020-08051 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 3 (1) ◽

pp. 83

Author(s):

Timothy Thrippleton ◽

Clemens Blattert ◽

Reinhard Mey ◽

Jürgen Zell ◽

Esther Thürig ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Decision Support ◽

Forest Management ◽

Decision Support System ◽

Support System ◽

Ecosystem Service ◽

Sustainable Forest Management ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Service Provisioning

Forest management is becoming increasingly complex due to increasing demands in ecosystem service provisioning and future climate change impacts. For a sustainable forest management, scientifically well-founded decision support is therefore urgently required. Within the project SessFor, a decision support system for strategic planning at the forest enterprise level is being developed, based on the climate sensitive forest model SwissStandSim and initialized from forest inventory data. The system is currently applied to the forest enterprise Wagenrain (440 ha), located in the Swiss Plateau region. Indicators for biodiversity and ecosystem service provisioning (timber production, recreation value and carbon sequestration) are calculated for different management strategies and evaluated using a multi-criteria decision analysis. Preliminary results demonstrate the suitability of the system to evaluate ecosystem service provisioning under different management strategies and to identify the best management strategy, based on criteria defined by the forest manager. Furthermore, results show how the system can be used to assess developments for time-scales of 50–100 years under different climate change scenarios. In the ongoing project, the system will be applied to other case study regions, including mountain forests, which are of key importance in Switzerland and other alpine areas.

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