Autumn Phenological Response of European Beech to Summer Drought and Heat

The changes in precipitation and temperature regimes brought on by the current climate change have influenced ecosystems globally. The consequences of climate change on plant phenology have been widely investigated during the last few years. However, the underlying causes of the timing of autumn phenology have not been fully clarified yet. Here, we focused on the onset (10%) of leaf colouring—LCO—(Biologische Bundesanstalt, Bundessortenamt und Chemische Industrie (BBCH) 92) of European beech (Fagus sylvatica, L.) as an important native tree species growing throughout Europe. Studied beech stands are located along the natural distribution range of the European beech in Western Carpathians (Slovakia) at different altitudes from lowlands (300 m a.s.l.) to uplands (1050 m a.s.l.) and climatic regions from warm to cold. To define limiting climate conditions for LCO, we established several bioclimatic indices as indicators of meteorological drought: climatic water balance (CWB), standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI), dry period index (DPI), and heat waves (HW). In addition, meteorological variables such as monthly mean temperatures and precipitation totals were taken into account. Throughout the 23-year period (1996–2018) of ground-based phenological observations of temperate beech forests, the timing of LCO was significantly delayed (p ≤ 0.05) in the middle to high altitudes, while in the lowest altitude, it remained unchanged. Over the last decade, 2009–2018, LCO in middle altitudes started at comparable to low altitudes and, at several years, even later. This resulted mainly from the significant negative effect of drought prior to this phenological phase (p ≤ 0.01) expressed through a 1-month SPI in September (SPIIX) at the stand at the low-altitude and warm-climatic region. Our results indicate that the meteorological drought conditioned by lower total precipitation and higher evapotranspirative demands in the warmer climate advance leaf senescence. However, at present time, growth in rising temperature and precipitation is acceptable for most beech stands at middle to high altitudes. Beech utilizes these conditions and postpones the LCO by 0.3–0.5 and 0.6–1.2 day per year at high and middle altitudes, respectively. Although we show the commencing negative effect of drought at mid-altitudes with lower (below 700 mm) total annual precipitation, the trend of LCO in favourable warm climates is still significantly delayed. The ongoing warming trend of summer months suggests further intensification of drought as has started to occur in middle altitudes, spreading from the continual increase of evapotranspiration over the next decades.

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Disentangling the Legacies of Climate and Management on Tree Growth

Ecosystems ◽

10.1007/s10021-021-00650-8 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Laura Marqués ◽

Drew M. P. Peltier ◽

J. Julio Camarero ◽

Miguel A. Zavala ◽

Jaime Madrigal-González ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Forest Management ◽

Tree Growth ◽

European Beech ◽

Ring Formation ◽

Silver Fir ◽

Past Climate ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Ecological Memory ◽

Historical Forest

AbstractLegacies of past climate conditions and historical management govern forest productivity and tree growth. Understanding how these processes interact and the timescales over which they influence tree growth is critical to assess forest vulnerability to climate change. Yet, few studies address this issue, likely because integrated long-term records of both growth and forest management are uncommon. We applied the stochastic antecedent modelling (SAM) framework to annual tree-ring widths from mixed forests to recover the ecological memory of tree growth. We quantified the effects of antecedent temperature and precipitation up to 4 years preceding the year of ring formation and integrated management effects with records of harvesting intensity from historical forest management archives. The SAM approach uncovered important time periods most influential to growth, typically the warmer and drier months or seasons, but variation among species and sites emerged. Silver fir responded primarily to past climate conditions (25–50 months prior to the year of ring formation), while European beech and Scots pine responded mostly to climate conditions during the year of ring formation and the previous year, although these responses varied among sites. Past management and climate interacted in such a way that harvesting promoted growth in young silver fir under wet and warm conditions and in old European beech under drier and cooler conditions. Our study shows that the ecological memory associated with climate legacies and historical forest management is species-specific and context-dependent, suggesting that both aspects are needed to properly evaluate forest functioning under climate change.

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Risk assessment of meteorological drought in China under RCP scenarios from 2016 to 2050

10.5194/nhess-2016-257 ◽

2016 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Kuo Li ◽

Jie Pan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Risk Assessment ◽

Water Resources ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Sensitivity Index ◽

Drought Risk ◽

Emission Scenarios ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Climate change has been a hotspot of scientific research in the world for decades, which caused serious effects of agriculture, water resources, ecosystem, environment, human health and so on. In China, drought accounts for almost 50 % of the total loss among all the meteorological disasters. In this article the interpolated and corrected precipitation of one GCM (HadGEM2-ES) output under four emission scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) were used to analyze the drought. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) calculated with these data was used to assess the climate change impact on droughts from meteorological perspectives. Based on five levels of SPI, an integrated index of drought hazard (IIDH) was established, which could explain the frequency and intensity of meteorological drought in different regions. According to yearbooks of different provinces, 15 factors have been chosen which could represent the impact of drought on human being, crops, water resources and economy. Exposure index, sensitivity index and adaptation index have been calculated in almost 2400 counties and vulnerability of drought has been evaluated. Based on hazard and vulnerability evaluation of drought, risk assessment of drought in China under the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 emission scenarios from 2016 to 2050 has been done. Results from such a comprehensive study over the whole country could be used not only to inform on potential impacts for specific sectors but also can be used to coordinate adaptation/mitigation strategies among different sectors/regions by the central government.

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Saharan Hot and Dry Sirocco Winds Drive Extreme Fire Events in Mediterranean Tunisia (North Africa)

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos11060590 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (6) ◽

pp. 590 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Chiraz Belhadj-Khedher ◽

Taoufik El-Melki ◽

Florent Mouillot

Keyword(s):

Mediterranean Basin ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Fire Hazard ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

Burned Area ◽

Summer Drought ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

The Mediterranean Basin ◽

Extreme Fire

With hot and dry summers, the Mediterranean basin is affected by recurrent fires. While drought is the major driver of the seasonal and inter-annual fire distribution in its northern and mildest climate conditions, some extreme fire events are also linked to extreme winds or heat waves. The southern part of the Mediterranean basin is located at the driest range of the Mediterranean bioclimate and is influenced by Saharan atmospheric circulations, leading to extreme hot and dry episodes, called Sirocco, and potentially acting as a major contributor to fire hazard. The recently created fire database for Tunisia was used to investigate the ±10-day pre- and post-fire timeframe of daily weather conditions associated with fire events over the 1985–2006 period. Positive anomalies in minimum and maximum temperatures, negative anomalies in air relative humidity, and a preferential south-eastern wind during fire events were identified, which were characteristic of Sirocco winds. +7 °C anomalies in air temperature and −30% in relative air humidity were the critical thresholds for the most extreme fire conditions. In addition, meteorological anomalies started two days before fire events and lasted for three days after for large fires >400 ha, which suggests that the duration of the Sirocco event is linked with fire duration and final fire size. Lastly, the yearly number of intense Sirocco events better explained the inter-annual variability of burned area over the 1950–2006 period than summer drought based on Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) indices.

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Drought indices supporting drought management in transboundary watersheds subject to climate alterations

Water Policy ◽

10.2166/wp.2014.237 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 17 (5) ◽

pp. 865-886 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Furat A. M. Al-Faraj ◽

Miklas Scholz ◽

Dimitris Tigkas ◽

Martino Boni

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Management Practices ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Drought Indices ◽

Management Approach ◽

Drought Risk ◽

Drought Management ◽

Anthropogenic Pressures ◽

Transboundary River Basin

There is growing concern in Iraq about the inefficiency of reactive drought management practices. Corresponding actions are largely characterized as emergency-based responses that treat the symptoms of drought rather than consider the vulnerability components associated with impacts. The Diyala watershed shared between Iraq and Iran has been used as an example transboundary river basin marked by ineffectiveness of drought management. The standardized precipitation index and the reconnaissance drought index were used to determine the historical meteorological drought episodes and analysis indicated climate change-induced alterations in the area. Spatiotemporal drought maps were drawn, which can be used for the identification of drought prone areas and assist with proactive planning. This paper discusses the underlying causes of the impairments of drought management policies, and the challenges and difficulties accompanying the governance of drought in Iraq. Given the influence of climate change and the upstream anthropogenic pressures, the time has come to adopt a gradual nation-wide transition step to drought risk planning incorporating a management approach at the transboundary scale. Moreover, the institutional and technical water vulnerability components associated with drought management should be considered in an integrated manner. The paper presents a generic technical template to support decision-makers in drought risk management.

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An overview of drought events in the Carpathian Region in 1961–2010

Advances in Science and Research ◽

10.5194/asr-10-21-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 21-32 ◽

Cited By ~ 57

Author(s):

J. Spinoni ◽

T. Antofie ◽

P. Barbosa ◽

Z. Bihari ◽

M. Lakatos ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Aridity Index ◽

Research Centre ◽

Drought Risk ◽

Joint Research ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Carpathian Region ◽

Drought Indicators

Abstract. The Carpathians and their rich biosphere are considered to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Drought is one of the major climate-related damaging natural phenomena and in Europe it has been occurring with increasing frequency, intensity, and duration in the last decades. Due to climate change, land cover changes, and intensive land use, the Carpathian Region is one of the areas at highest drought risk in Europe. In order to analyze the drought events over the last 50 yr in the area, we used a 1961–2010 daily gridded temperature and precipitation dataset. From this, monthly 0.1° × 0.1° grids of four drought indicators (Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Reconnaissance Drought Indicator (RDI), and Palfai Aridity/Drought Index (PADI)) have been calculated. SPI, SPEI, and RDI have been computed at different time scales (3, 6, and 12 months), whilst PADI has been computed on an annual basis. The dataset used in this paper has been constructed in the framework of the CARPATCLIM project, run by a consortium of institutions from 9 countries (Austria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, and Ukraine) with scientific support by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission. Temperature and precipitation station data have been collected, quality-checked, completed, homogenized, and interpolated on the 0.1° × 0.1° grid, and drought indicators have been consequently calculated on the grid itself. Monthly and annual series of the cited indicators are presented, together with high-resolution maps and statistical analysis of their correlation. A list of drought events between 1961 and 2010, based on the agreement of the indicators, is presented. We also discuss three case studies: drought in 1990, 2000, and 2003. The drought indicators have been compared both on spatial and temporal scales: it resulted that SPI, SPEI, and RDI are highly comparable, especially over a 12-month accumulation period. SPEI, which includes PET (Potential Evapo-Transpiration) as RDI does, proved to perform best if drought is caused by heat waves, whilst SPI performed best if drought is mainly driven by a rainfall deficit, because SPEI and RDI can be extreme in dry periods. According to PADI, the Carpathian Region has a sufficient natural water supply on average, with some spots that fall into the ''mild dry'' class, and this is also confirmed by the FAO-UNEP aridity index and the Köppen-Geiger climate classification.

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Impact of basin-wide dry climate conditions and non-climatic drivers: an isolation approach

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2016.130 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 7 (3) ◽

pp. 498-513 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Furat A. M. Al-Faraj ◽

Miklas Scholz

Keyword(s):

Water Resources ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

River Regulation ◽

Relative Effect ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Decision Making Processes ◽

Diyala River ◽

The Standardized Precipitation Index

The sustainable management of water resources subjected to the joined influence of transboundary basin-wide dry climatic conditions and intensive man-made river regulations in an upper riparian state on the stream flow regime of a downstream country is a serious challenge. This is particularly the case for arid and semi-arid regions where water resources are limited. The Diyala river basin, shared between Iraq and Iran, was used as an example. The study aims to develop a generic approach to isolate the relative effect of upstream man-made interventions from the mutual impacts of basin-wide dry climate environments and upstream human-induced pressures. The proposed method supports water managers in unbiased, timely and spatially relevant decision-making processes. The streamflow drought index and the monthly-based truncation level were utilized to characterize hydrological droughts, while the standardized precipitation index was used for meteorological drought interpretations. Findings revealed that the upstream river regulation schemes noticeably led to a decline in water availability of the downstream country. The relative impact ranged from a minimum value of 5% in February to the highest value of 54% in July. The average proportional impacts between April and October and between November and March were about 46% and 17%, respectively.

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Impact of climate change on drought in the Daklak province

Science and Technology Development Journal ◽

10.32508/stdj.v17i3.1365 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 17 (3) ◽

pp. 5-11

Author(s):

Khoi Nguyen Dao ◽

Quang Nguyen Xuan Chau

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Meteorological Drought ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

The Future ◽

Delta Change ◽

The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽

The Impact

The main objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on the meteorological drought in the Daklak province. In this study, the meteorological drought was calculated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI).From this result, two scensrios fot the precipitation VA1B and B1 were downscaled, from the outputs of 4 GCMs (General Circulation Model): CGCM3.1 (T63), CM2.0, CM2.1, and HadCM3 using the simple downscaling method (delta change method). The impacts of climate change on the droughts were assessed by comparing the present (1980- 2009) and the future droughts (2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099).Results of the study suggested that the future temperature would increase by 0.9-2.8ºC and the future precipitation would decrease by 0.4-4.7% for both A1B and B1 scenarios. Under the future climate scenarios, the frequency and severity of extreme drought would increase. The results obtained in this study could be useful for planning and managing water resources at this region.

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Climate change within Serbian forests: Current state and future perspectives

Topola ◽

10.5937/topola2108039s ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 39-56

Author(s):

Dejan Stojanović ◽

Saša Orlović ◽

Milica Zlatković ◽

Saša Kostić ◽

Verica Vasić ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Tree Species ◽

Forest Ecosystems ◽

Insect Pests ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Ground Vegetation ◽

Human Society ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Pests And Diseases ◽

Precipitation Decrease

Extreme weather conditions, namely droughts, heat waves, heavy rains, floods, and landslides are becoming more frequent globally and in Serbia as a result of climate change. Generally, various parts of human society are affected by changing climate conditions. Forest ecosystems are one of the most sensitive systems to weather and climate. In that sense, small changes may lead to large disturbances including forest decline, outbreaks of insect pests and diseases and eventually mortality. In Serbia, the average temperature in forest ecosystems of the most important and abundant forest tree species has risen for more than 1°C in the last thirty years (1990-2019) in comparison to the previous period (1961-1990). During the last thirty years, the northern and western parts of Serbia experienced an increase in precipitation as opposed to the southern and eastern parts of the country. If one takes a closer look at the climate within a particular forest stands, it would seem that the effect of precipitation decrease is stronger in less humid parts of a tree species range. In this paper, we discuss various aspects of climate change impacts on forests and forestry, including forest ecology, genetics, physiology, pests and diseases, ground vegetation, monitoring, reporting and verification system, climate change litigation and perspectives of forests in the 21st century in Serbia.

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The Impacts of Climate Change in the MENA Region and the Water-Energy Nexus

10.20944/preprints201810.0197.v1 ◽

2018 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Manfred A. Lange

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Eastern Mediterranean ◽

Mena Region ◽

Large Variability ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Mitigation And Adaptation ◽

Water Energy Nexus ◽

The Impact ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

The present paper aims to elucidate the impact of climate change on the availability and security of water and energy in the Middle East and North Africa Region (MENA Region). The region is particularly challenged by a number of factors including a large variability of bio-geographical characteristics, extreme population growth over the last few decades and substantial societal and economical transitions as well as armed conflicts in some of the countries of the region. Anticipated changes in climate conditions will exacerbate the challenges with regard to providing sufficient amounts of water and energy to the communities in the region. Impacts of climate change will materialize as an increasing number of heat waves, primarily in urban structures and the decline in water availability as a result of enhanced droughts and a growing numbers of dry spells. The interrelationships between energy and water and their mutual dependencies are addressed by the Water-Energy-Nexus concept. With regard to the challenges addressed here, Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean are a particular point in case. Mitigation and adaptation strategies include enhanced efficiency of energy and water use, integrated technology assessments regarding electricity generation and the production of potable water and electricity through concentrated solar power.

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Impacts of climate change on Public Health of the Mediterranean population

European Journal of Public Health ◽

10.1093/eurpub/ckaa165.512 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽

Author(s):

S Paz

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Forest Fires ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Warming Trend ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Adaptation Planning ◽

Poor People ◽

Mediterranean Population ◽

Mediterranean Countries ◽

The Mediterranean

Abstract The Mediterranean Basin is undergoing a warming trend with longer and warmer summers, an increase in the frequency and the severity of heat waves, changes in precipitation patterns and a reduction in rainfall amounts. This populated region is characterized by significant gaps in the socio-economic levels, parallel with population growth and migration, increased water demand and forest fires risk. Consequently, the vulnerability of the Mediterranean population to human health risks as result of climate change increases significantly. Climatic changes impact the health of the Mediterranean population directly through extreme heat, drought or storms, or indirectly by changes in water availability, food provision and quality, air pollution and other stressors. The main health effects are related to extreme weather events, changes in the distribution of climate-sensitive diseases and changes in environmental and social conditions. The poorer countries, particularly in North Africa and the Levant, are at highest risk. Climate change affects the vulnerable sectors of the region, including an increasingly older population, with a larger percentage of those with chronic diseases, as well as poor people, which are therefore more susceptible to the effects of extreme temperatures. For those populations, a better surveillance and control systems are especially needed parallel with adaptation planning that become ever more imperative. In order to achieve these goals, it is essential to define indicators of vulnerability and exposure based on health impact assessment, as well as indicators that will promote adaptation planning and resilience for health risk management. In view of the climatic projections and the vulnerability of Mediterranean countries, such indicators will contribute to correct preparedness at the regional and national levels.

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