scholarly journals Assessment of the Climatic Variability of the Kunhar River Basin, Pakistan

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 1740
Author(s):  
Shan-e-hyder Soomro ◽  
Caihong Hu ◽  
Muhammad Waseem Boota ◽  
Qiang Wu ◽  
Mairaj Hyder Alias Aamir Soomro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
Liquid Precipitation

Pakistan is water stressed, and its water resources are vulnerable due to uncertain climatic changes. Uncertainties are inherent when it comes to the modeling of water resources. The predicted flow variation in the Kunhar River Basin was modeled using the statistically decreased high-resolution general circulation model (GCM) as an input for the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model to assess the hydrological response of the Kunhar River Basin under prevailing climate changes. The model’s best performance during the calibration and validation stages was obtained with a regular 0.87 and 0.79 Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency in the basin, respectively. Under the high-end emission scenario, a 122% increase was expected in evapotranspiration in the rising season of months during the winter period 2059–2079, and such developments were attributed to an immense increase in liquid precipitation and temperature. The model’s output reflects a potential for basin stream flow in terms of increasing liquid precipitation up to 182% at the beginning of the monsoon season in the period 2059–2079 in the scenario of high-end emissions. Moreover, the study produced possible uncertainties in high-elevation zones, where the modeling of a catchment can lead to typical snow ablation and accumulation in future projections. This study revealed that the precipitation rate will increase annually, resulting in an increase in the summer stream flow over the basin, though snow is hardly expected to accumulate in the basin’s future climate.

Assessing Climate Change Impact on Water Resources in the Tone River Basin, Japan, Using Super-High-Resolution Atmospheric Model Output

2009 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaoru Takara ◽  
◽  
Sunmin Kim ◽  
Yasuto Tachikawa ◽  
Eiichi Nakakita ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Japan Meteorological Agency ◽  
Orographic Rainfall

We examined the potential impact of climate change on Tokyo metropolitan water resources in the Tone River basin using output from a super-high-resolution global atmospheric general circulation model, AGCM20, having 20-km spatial resolution and 1-hour temporal resolution. AGCM20 is run on the Earth Simulator and being developed under the Japanese government’s Kakushin21 program. AGCM20 has an advantage in simulating orographic rainfall and frontal rain bands, so we used its output to analyze Tone River basin water resources. The basin covers 16,840 km2and the main channel is 322 km long from its source to the Pacific Ocean. AGCM20 outputs hourly precipitation and daily variables such as snowfall, rainfall, snowmelt, evaporation, and transpiration for a present period, 1979-1998, and a projected period, 2075-2094. A comparison of these two periods showed that snow-related variables will decrease and all others will increase. Based on a comparison of ordered daily precipitation curves (ODPC) between AGCM20 and the Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System (AMeDAS), a high-resolution Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) surface observation network, we corrected AGCM20 precipitation data bias, and calculated the standardized precipitation index (SPI) drought indicator. The SPI for less than 6 months does not show noticeable variations under climate change, but the yearly SPI predicts more frequent dry conditions, indicating increased future vulnerability to subtle droughts.

Integrated Water Balance and Water Quality Management Under Future Climate Change and Population Growth: A Case Study of Upper Litani Basin, Lebanon

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rana Salim Abou Slaymane ◽  
M. Reda Soliman
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Waste Water Treatment ◽  
Water Quality Management ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Baseline Scenario

Abstract The impacts of the growing population at Lebanon including Lebanese, Palestinian and Syrian refugees, associated with the changing climate parameters such that the precipitation are putting the Bekaa Valley’s water resources in a stymie situation. The water resources are under significant stress limiting the water availability and deteriorating the water quality at the Upper Litani River Basin (ULRB) within the Bekaa Valley region. These impacts are assessed by Water Evaluation And Planning model to assure the water balance and quality at baseline scenario in 2013, and future scenarios reaching 2095, serving by the Watershed Modeling System to get the flow throughout the Litani River’s ungauged zones. Moreover, a General Circulation Model is used to predict the future climate up to 2100 under several emissions scenarios which shows a critical situation at the high emission scenario where the precipitation will be reduced about 87 mm from 2013 to 2095. The aim of this research is to reduce the water pollution that limits the availability of usable water, and to minimize the gap between the demand and supply of water within the ULRB in order to maintain water resources sustainability, and preserves its quality, even after 80 years. In particular, this may be achieved by removing encroachments on the river, by adding waste water treatment plants, by reducing the amount of lost water in damaged water network, and by avoiding the overconsumption of groundwater.

Selection and downscaling of general circulation model datasets and extreme climate indices analysis - Manual

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saurav Pradhananga ◽  
Arthur Lutz ◽  
Archana Shrestha ◽  
Indira Kadel ◽  
Bikash Nepal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Sacred Landscape ◽  
Kailash Sacred Landscape ◽  
Selection Of

A supplement to the Climate Change Scenarios for Nepal report published by the Ministry of Forests and Environment for the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Process, this manual provides detailed information about the processes through which the assessment highlighted in the report can be carried out. They include – selection of the general circulation/climate models (GCMs), downscaling of the GCM dataset, assessment of changes in precipitation and temperature, and assessment of change in climate extremes. The manual downscales climate datasets for the Koshi River basin, the Kabul River basin, and the Kailash Sacred Landscape to analyse future scenarios in these basins and the landscape.

scholarly journals Understanding Future Water Challenges in a Highly Regulated Indian River Basin—Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Narmada

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1762 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan Rickards ◽  
Thomas Thomas ◽  
Alexandra Kaelin ◽  
Helen Houghton-Carr ◽  
Sharad K. Jain ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Availability Assessment

The Narmada river basin is a highly regulated catchment in central India, supporting a population of over 16 million people. In such extensively modified hydrological systems, the influence of anthropogenic alterations is often underrepresented or excluded entirely by large-scale hydrological models. The Global Water Availability Assessment (GWAVA) model is applied to the Upper Narmada, with all major dams, water abstractions and irrigation command areas included, which allows for the development of a holistic methodology for the assessment of water resources in the basin. The model is driven with 17 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to assess the impact of climate change on water resources in the basin for the period 2031–2060. The study finds that the hydrological regime within the basin is likely to intensify over the next half-century as a result of future climate change, causing long-term increases in monsoon season flow across the Upper Narmada. Climate is expected to have little impact on dry season flows, in comparison to water demand intensification over the same period, which may lead to increased water stress in parts of the basin.

scholarly journals Climate change and stream temperature projections in the Columbia River Basin: biological implications of spatial variation in hydrologic drivers

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 5793-5829 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. L. Ficklin ◽  
B. L. Barnhart ◽  
J. H. Knouft ◽  
I. T. Stewart ◽  
E. P. Maurer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Thermal Sensitivity ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Columbia River ◽  
Physical Factor ◽  
Stream Temperature ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Columbia River Basin ◽  
Ecological Province

Abstract. Water temperature is a primary physical factor regulating the persistence and distribution of aquatic taxa. Considering projected increases in temperature and changes in precipitation in the coming century, accurate assessment of suitable thermal habitat in freshwater systems is critical for predicting aquatic species responses to changes in climate and for guiding adaptation strategies. We use a hydrologic model coupled with a stream temperature model and downscaled General Circulation Model outputs to explore the spatially and temporally varying changes in stream temperature at the subbasin and ecological province scale for the Columbia River Basin. On average, stream temperatures are projected to increase 3.5 °C for the spring, 5.2 °C for the summer, 2.7 °C for the fall, and 1.6 °C for the winter. While results indicate changes in stream temperature are correlated with changes in air temperature, our results also capture the important, and often ignored, influence of hydrological processes on changes in stream temperature. Decreases in future snowcover will result in increased thermal sensitivity within regions that were previously buffered by the cooling effect of flow originating as snowmelt. Other hydrological components, such as precipitation, surface runoff, lateral soil flow, and groundwater, are negatively correlated to increases in stream temperature depending on the season and ecological province. At the ecological province scale, the largest increase in annual stream temperature was within the Mountain Snake ecological province, which is characterized by non-migratory coldwater fish species. Stream temperature changes varied seasonally with the largest projected stream temperature increases occurring during the spring and summer for all ecological provinces. Our results indicate that stream temperatures are driven by local processes and ultimately require a physically-explicit modeling approach to accurately characterize the habitat regulating the distribution and diversity of aquatic taxa.

scholarly journals Impact of solar variability on the frequency variability of the Indian summer monsoon

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-82
Author(s):  
J. R. KULKARNI ◽  
M. MUJUMDAR ◽  
S. P. GHARGE ◽  
V. SATYAN ◽  
G. B. PANT
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Solar Irradiance ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Solar Constant ◽  
Good Correspondence ◽  
The Impact

Earlier investigations into the epochal behavior of fluctuations in All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) have indicated the existence of a Low Frequency Mode (LFM) in the 60-70 years range. One of the probable sources of this variability may be due to changes in solar irradiance. To investigate this, time series of 128-year solar irradiance data from 1871-1998 has been examined. The Wavelet Transform (WT) method is applied to extract the LFM from these time series, which show a very good correspondence. A case study has been carried out to test the sensitivity of AISMR to solar irradiance. The General Circulation Model (GCM) of the Center of Ocean-Land-Atmosphere (COLA) has been integrated in the control run (using the climatological value of solar constant i.e., 1365 Wm-2) and in the enhanced solar constant condition (enhanced by 10 Wm-2) for summer monsoon season of 1986. The study shows that the large scale atmospheric circulation over the Indian region, in the enhanced solar constant scenario is favorable to good monsoon activity. A conceptual model for the impact of solar irradiance on the AISMR at LFM is also suggested.

scholarly journals Statistical interpretation of general circulation model: A prospect for automation of medium range local weather forecast in India

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 229-236
Author(s):  
ASHOK KUMAR ◽  
PARVINDER MAINI
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Statistical Interpretation ◽  
Medium Range Weather Forecast ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Local Weather

The General Circulation Models (GCM), though able to provide reasonably good medium range weather forecast. have comparatively less skill in forecasting location-specific weather. This is mainly due to the poor representation of 16cal topography and other features in these models. Statistical interpretation (SI) of GCM is very essential in order to improve the location-specific medium range local weather forecast. An attempt has been made at the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), New Delhi to do this type of objective forecasting. Hence location-specific SI models are developed and a bias free forecast is obtained. One of the techniques for accomplishing this, is the Perfect Prog. Method (PPM). PPM models for precipitation (quantitative, probability, yes/no) and maximum minimum temperature are developed for monsoon season (June to August) for 10 stations in lndia. These PPM models and the output from the GCM (R-40) operational at NCMRWF, are then used to obtain the SI forecast. An indirect method based upon SI forecast and observed values of previous one or two seasons, for getting bias free forecast is explained. A comparative study of skill of bias free SI and final forecast, with the observed, issued from NCMRWF to 10 Agromet Field Units (AMFU) during monsoon season 1993, has indicated that automation of medium range local weather forecast can be achieved with the help of SI forecast.

scholarly journals Supplemental irrigation potential and impact on downstream flow of Karkheh River Basin of Iran

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 13519-13536 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Hessari ◽  
A. Bruggeman ◽  
A. Akhoond-Ali ◽  
T. Oweis ◽  
F. Abbasi
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Water Productivity ◽  
Environmental Flow ◽  
Flow Conditions ◽  
Supplemental Irrigation ◽  
Irrigation Potential ◽  
Downstream Flow ◽  
Karkheh River Basin

Abstract. Supplemental irrigation of rainfed winter crops improves and stabilizes crop yield and water productivity. Although yield increases by supplemental irrigation are well established at the field level, its potential extent and impact on water resources at the basin level are less researched. This work presents a GIS-based methodology for identifying areas that are potentially suitable for supplemental irrigation and a computer routine for allocating stream flow for supplemental irrigation in different subbasins. A case study is presented for the 42 908 km2 upper Karkheh River Basin (KRB) in Iran, which has 15 840 km2 of rainfed crop areas. Rainfed crop areas within 1 km from the streams, with slope classes 0–5%, 0–8%, 0–12% and 0–20%, were assumed to be suitable for supplemental irrigation. Four stream flow conditions (normal, normal with environmental flow requirements, drought and drought with environmental flow) were considered for the allocation of water resources. Thirty-seven percent (5801 km2) of the rainfed croplands had slopes less than 5%. Sixty-one percent (3559 km2) of this land was suitable for supplemental irrigation, but only 22% (1278 km2) could be served with irrigation in both fall (75 mm) and spring (100 mm), under normal flow conditions. If irrigation would be allocated to all suitable land with slopes up to 20%, 2057 km2 could be irrigated. This would reduce the average annual outflow of the upper KRB by 9%. If environmental flow requirements are considered, a maximum (0–20% slopes) of 1444 km2 could receive supplemental irrigation. Under drought conditions a maximum of 1013 km2 could be irrigated, while the outflow would again be reduced by 9%. Thus, the withdrawal of steam flow for supplemental irrigation has relatively little effect on the outflow of the upper KRB. However, if the main policy goal would be to improve rainfed areas throughout the upper KRB, options for storing surface water need to be developed.

Trend and Variability Analysis of Sunshine Duration in Divisional Headquarters of Bangladesh

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 127-133
Author(s):  
MA Farukh ◽  
MA Islam ◽  
L Akter ◽  
R Khatun
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
North East ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Post Monsoon Season ◽  
Sunshine Hour

In this study, Sunshine duration data of eight divisional headquarters of Bangladesh Meteorological Stations (Dhaka, Rangpur, Rajshahi, Mymensingh, Sylhet, Barishal, Khulna and Chattagram) were analyzed to evaluate the long-term changes and trends. The data used are the BMD data spanning from 1980 to 2010. The annual sunshine duration has decreased by the month of (June –September) from 1980 to 2010. Seasonal changes in sunshine duration were also analyzed where the maximum decline was found in rainy-monsoon season (June – September), the winter season (December – February), then the post-monsoon season (October – November) and the minimum in the pre-monsoon season (March – May). Analysis of observed data before and after 2000 represents the sunshine durations have decreasing trends in all divisional headquarters of Bangladesh except Chattagram station during the month of (January – December). General Circulation Model (GCM) defined that the maximum sunshine hour was decline north-east and south-west in all divisional headquarters of Bangladesh during the month of (June – September) and the minimum sunshine hour was decline in eastern part of the country during the month of (March – May). Environ. Sci. & Natural Resources, 12(1&2): 127-133, 2019

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