Trend and Variability Analysis of Sunshine Duration in Divisional Headquarters of Bangladesh

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 127-133
Author(s):  
MA Farukh ◽  
MA Islam ◽  
L Akter ◽  
R Khatun
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
North East ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Post Monsoon Season ◽  
Sunshine Hour

In this study, Sunshine duration data of eight divisional headquarters of Bangladesh Meteorological Stations (Dhaka, Rangpur, Rajshahi, Mymensingh, Sylhet, Barishal, Khulna and Chattagram) were analyzed to evaluate the long-term changes and trends. The data used are the BMD data spanning from 1980 to 2010. The annual sunshine duration has decreased by the month of (June –September) from 1980 to 2010. Seasonal changes in sunshine duration were also analyzed where the maximum decline was found in rainy-monsoon season (June – September), the winter season (December – February), then the post-monsoon season (October – November) and the minimum in the pre-monsoon season (March – May). Analysis of observed data before and after 2000 represents the sunshine durations have decreasing trends in all divisional headquarters of Bangladesh except Chattagram station during the month of (January – December). General Circulation Model (GCM) defined that the maximum sunshine hour was decline north-east and south-west in all divisional headquarters of Bangladesh during the month of (June – September) and the minimum sunshine hour was decline in eastern part of the country during the month of (March – May). Environ. Sci. & Natural Resources, 12(1&2): 127-133, 2019

Evapotranspiration Distribution and Variation of Pakistan (1931-2015)

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 184-197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saifullah Khan ◽  
Mahmood Ul Hasan
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Surface Pressure ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Main Element ◽  
Mountainous Region ◽  
Post Monsoon ◽  
Post Monsoon Season

AbstractEvapotranspiration is the main element of aridity and desertification and to balance the natural hydrological processes. Pakistan has a high degree of evapotranspiration, as it is in subtropical belt, with long sunshine duration and low cloudiness in summers. June is the warmest month, when the evapotranspiration exceeds 7mm (0.28inches), whereas, January is the coldest month, when evapotranspiration of the country falls to 1mm (0.04inches). The maximum evapotranspiration has been recorded at the southern latitudes of the country (Hyderabad and Jacobabad), while it decreases towards northwest (mountainous region) and Gilgit-Baltistan (Astore and Skardu). This variation in evapotranspiration is due to fluctuation in temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration, wind speed, relative humidity, physical relief and latitudinal as well as altitudinal extend of the country. The average evapotranspiration of Pakistan is 4.5mm with an increase of 1.0mm during 1931-2015. In winter and summer season, the lower Indus basin, has recorded high evapotranspiration as compared to the northern mountainous region. The average evapotranspiration of Pakistan during winter season is 2.7mm, while in summer it is 6.3mm. This variation is due to the variation in the length of day and night, humidity, precipitation, surface pressure, wind speed, and topography of the land. During cold season the average evapotranspiration of the country is 13.7mm, pre-monsoon season 17.1mm, monsoon season 15.8mm and post monsoon season 8mm. Obviously, the highest evapotranspiration of Pakistan has recorded during pre-monsoon season with extreme temperature, scarce precipitation, long sunshine duration, lowest relative humidity, low pressure, and calm winds and chilly condition. Furthermore, during cold (0.1mm), pre-monsoon (3.5mm), and monsoon season (2.2mm) the evapotranspiration shows an increase, where as it reveals a negative deviation of -5.6mm in post monsoon season due to increase in the precipitation from reversible monsoon lows at the southern latitudes of the country. Generally, the evapotranspiration of Pakistan increases from northwest to southeast and a main agent of delimitation of the arid region of the country. The main factors that cause variation in the evapotranspiration of the country from south towards north are temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration, relative humidity, surface pressure, wind speed, fogs, cloudiness, topography, latitudinal and altitudinal extend of the country that required further research.

scholarly journals Temperature Projections over the Indus River Basin of Pakistan Using Statistical Downscaling

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 195
Author(s):  
Muhammad Saleem Pomee ◽  
Elke Hertig
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Indus River ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Maximum Heating

We assessed maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures over Pakistan’s Indus basin during the 21st century using statistical downscaling. A particular focus was given to spatiotemporal heterogeneity, reference and General Circulation Model (GCM) uncertainties, and statistical skills of regression models using an observational profile that could significantly be improved by recent high-altitude observatories. First, we characterized the basin into homogeneous climate regions using K-means clustering. Predictors from ERA-Interim reanalysis were then used to model observed temperatures skillfully and quantify reference and GCM uncertainties. Thermodynamical (dynamical) variables mainly governed reference (GCM) uncertainties. The GCM predictors under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were used as “new” predictors in statistical models to project ensemble temperature changes. Our analysis projected non-uniform warming but could not validate elevation-dependent warming (EDW) at the basin scale. We obtained more significant warming during the westerly-dominated seasons, with maximum heating during the winter season through Tmin changes. The most striking feature is a low-warming monsoon (with the possibility of no change to slight cooling) over the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Therefore, the likelihood of continuing the anomalous UIB behavior during the primary melt season may not entirely be ruled out at the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5.

scholarly journals Biodiversity of butterflies in endosulfan-affected areas of Kerala, India

2020 ◽  
Vol 81 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
K. N. Raghavendra ◽  
Kumar Arvind ◽  
G. K. Anushree ◽  
Tony Grace
Keyword(s):  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Wiener Index ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Affected Area ◽  
Butterfly Assemblages ◽  
Abundance And Diversity ◽  
The One ◽  
One Way Anova

Abstract Background Butterflies are considered as bio-indicators of a healthy and diversified ecosystem. Endosulfan was sprayed indiscriminately in large plantations of Kasaragod district, Kerala which had caused serious threats to the ecosystem. In this study, we surveyed the butterflies for their abundance and diversity in three differentially endosulfan-affected areas viz., Enmakaje—highly affected area, Periye—moderately affected area, Padanakkad—unaffected area, carried out between the end of the monsoon season and the start of the winter season, lasting approximately 100 days. Seven variables viz., butterfly abundance (N), species richness (S), Simpson’s reciprocal index (D), the Shannon–Wiener index (H′), the exponential of the Shannon–Wiener index (expH′), Pielou’s evenness (J) and species evenness (D/S), related to species diversity were estimated, followed by the one-way ANOVA (F = 25.01, p < 0.001) and the Kruskal-Wallis test (H = 22.59, p < 0.001). Results A population of three different butterfly assemblages comprised of 2300 butterflies which represented 61 species were encountered. Our results showed that Enmakaje displayed significantly lower butterfly diversity and abundance, compared to the other two communities. Conclusion So far, this is the first study concerning the effect of endosulfan on the biodiversity of butterfly in the affected areas of Kasaragod, Kerala, India. This study may present an indirect assessment of the persisting effects of endosulfan in the affected areas, suggesting its long-term effects on the ecosystem.

scholarly journals Interhemispheric differences of mesosphere/lower thermosphere winds and tides investigated from three whole atmosphere models and meteor radar observations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gunter Stober ◽  
Ales Kuchar ◽  
Dimitry Pokhotelov ◽  
Huixin Liu ◽  
Han-Li Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Lower Thermosphere ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Meteor Radar ◽  
Radar Observations ◽  
Seasonal Characteristics

Abstract. Long-term and continuous observations of mesospheric/lower thermospheric winds are rare, but they are important to investigate climatological changes at these altitudes on time scales of several years, covering a solar cycle and longer. Such long time series are a natural heritage of the mesosphere/lower thermosphere climate, and they are valuable to compare climate models or long term runs of general circulation models (GCMs). Here we present a climatological comparison of wind observations from six meteor radars at two conjugate latitudes to validate the corresponding mean winds and atmospheric diurnal and semidiurnal tides from three GCMs, namely Ground-to-Topside Model of Atmosphere and Ionosphere for Aeronomy (GAIA), Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Extension (Specified Dynamics) (WACCM-X(SD)) and Upper Atmosphere ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (UA-ICON) model. Our results indicate that there are interhemispheric differences in the seasonal characteristics of the diurnal and semidiurnal tide. There also are some differences in the mean wind climatologies of the models and the observations. Our results indicate that GAIA shows a reasonable agreement with the meteor radar observations during the winter season, whereas WACCM-X(SD) shows a better agreement with the radars for the hemispheric zonal summer wind reversal, which is more consistent with the meteor radar observations. The free running UA-ICON tends to show similar winds and tides compared to WACCM-X(SD).

scholarly journals Satellite-based study of physico-optical properties of aerosols over a westernmost location of Brahmaputra valley

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jhuma Biswas 1
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Aerosols ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Cloud Condensation Nuclei ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Earth Observing System ◽  
Brahmaputra Valley ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Long Term Trend ◽  
Term Analysis

This study examines the long term trend of the radiatively active atmospheric aerosols which can influence the Earth’s energy budget directly by scattering and absorbing radiation and indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei. MODIS sensor on board the NASA Earth Observing System Terra and Aqua satellite based Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) data are used for long term analysis of aerosols over Bongaigaon, Assam for the period August, 2002 to March, 2017. Highest AOD values are observed in pre-monsoon (March-May) season due to long range transportation as well as intense biomass burning activities especially as a part of Jhum cultivation. In general, AOD values are low in post-monsoon (October-November) season which may be due to wash out of aerosols by rain in the preceding months without enough replacement. The monthly AOD values vary from its highest value 0.949 in April, 2016 to its lowest value 0.107 in November, 2002 for the study period. From the comparison of MODIS Terra and Aqua AOD at 550 nm, it is clearly seen that generally Terra AOD at 10:30 hr is higher than the Aqua AOD at 13:30hr. A slowly increasing trend of both Aqua and Terra AOD at 550 nm is observed over the study location. The observed Ångström exponent value varies from its minimum value in monsoon season to its maximum value in winter season. With increasing AOD values, horizontal visibility decreases over Bongaigaon.

scholarly journals Idealised simulations of the deep atmosphere of hot Jupiters

2019 ◽  
Vol 632 ◽  
pp. A114 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Sainsbury-Martinez ◽  
P. Wang ◽  
S. Fromang ◽  
P. Tremblin ◽  
T. Dubos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Final State ◽  
Vertical Advection ◽  
Atmospheric Circulations ◽  
Hot Jupiters ◽  
Heating And Cooling ◽  
Natural Outcome

Context. The anomalously large radii of hot Jupiters has long been a mystery. However, by combining both theoretical arguments and 2D models, a recent study has suggested that the vertical advection of potential temperature leads to a hotter adiabatic temperature profile in the deep atmosphere than the profile obtained with standard 1D models. Aims. In order to confirm the viability of that scenario, we extend this investigation to 3D, time-dependent models. Methods. We use a 3D general circulation model DYNAMICO to perform a series of calculations designed to explore the formation and structure of the driving atmospheric circulations, and detail how it responds to changes in both the upper and deep atmospheric forcing. Results. In agreement with the previous, 2D study, we find that a hot adiabat is the natural outcome of the long-term evolution of the deep atmosphere. Integration times of the order of 1500 yr are needed for that adiabat to emerge from an isothermal atmosphere, explaining why it has not been found in previous hot Jupiter studies. Models initialised from a hotter deep atmosphere tend to evolve faster toward the same final state. We also find that the deep adiabat is stable against low-levels of deep heating and cooling, as long as the Newtonian cooling timescale is longer than ~3000 yr at 200 bar. Conclusions. We conclude that steady-state vertical advection of potential temperature by deep atmospheric circulations constitutes a robust mechanism to explain the inflated radii of hot Jupiters. We suggest that future models of hot Jupiters be evolved for a longer time than currently done, and when possible that models initialised with a hot deep adiabat be included. We stress that this mechanism stems from the advection of entropy by irradiation-induced mass flows and does not require a (finely tuned) dissipative process, in contrast with most previously suggested scenarios.

scholarly journals Susceptibility of Hydropower Generation to Climate Change: Karun III Dam Case Study

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1025 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maryam Beheshti ◽  
Ali Heidari ◽  
Bahram Saghafian
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Power Generation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Average Power ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Precipitation Trend ◽  
Hydropower Generation ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future

Climate change can cause serious problems for future hydropower plant projects and make them less economically justified. Changing precipitation patterns, rising temperatures, and abrupt snow melting affect river stream patterns and hydropower generation. Thus, study of climate change impacts during the useful life of a hydropower dam is essential and its outcome should be considered in assessing long-term dam feasibility. The aim of this research is to evaluate the impacts of climate change on future hydropower generation in the Karun-III dam located in the southwest region of Iran in two future tri-decadal periods: near (2020–2049) and far (2070–2099). Had-CM3 general circulation model predictions under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios were applied, and downscaled by a statistical downscaling model (SDSM). An artificial neural network (ANN) and HEC-ResSim reservoir model respectively simulated the rainfall–runoff process and hydropower generation. The projections showed that the Karun-III dam catchment under the two scenarios will generally become warmer and wetter with a slightly larger increase in annual precipitation in the near than the far future. Runoff followed the precipitation trend by increasing in both periods. The runoff peak also switched from April to March in both scenarios, due to higher winter precipitation, and earlier snowmelt, which was caused by temperature rise. According to both scenarios, hydropower generation increased more in the near future than in the far future. Annual average power generation increased gradually by 26.7–40.5% under A2 and by 17.4–29.3% under B2 in 2020–2049. In the far period, average power generation increased by 1.8–8.7% in A2 and by 10.5–22% under B2. In the near future, A2 showed energy deduction in the months of June and July, while B2 revealed a decrease in the months of April and June. Additionally, projections in the 2070–2099 under A2 exhibited energy reduction in the months of March through July, while B2 revealed a decrease in April through July. The framework utilized in this study can be exploited to analyze the susceptibility of hydropower production in the long term.

scholarly journals Long-term Surface Temperature (LoST) database as a complement for GCM preindustrial simulations

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 1099-1111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero ◽  
Almudena García-García ◽  
Hugo Beltrami ◽  
Eduardo Zorita ◽  
Fernando Jaume-Santero
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ground Surface ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Research Unit ◽  
Large Spread ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Past Millennium

Abstract. Estimates of climate sensitivity from general circulation model (GCM) simulations still present a large spread despite the continued improvements in climate modeling since the 1970s. This variability is partially caused by the dependence of several long-term feedback mechanisms on the reference climate state. Indeed, state-of-the-art GCMs present a large spread of control climate states probably due to the lack of a suitable reference for constraining the climatology of preindustrial simulations. We assemble a new gridded database of long-term ground surface temperatures (LoST database) obtained from geothermal data over North America, and we explore its use as a potential reference for the evaluation of GCM preindustrial simulations. We compare the LoST database with observations from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) database, as well as with five past millennium transient climate simulations and five preindustrial control simulations from the third phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) and the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The database is consistent with meteorological observations as well as with both types of preindustrial simulations, which suggests that LoST temperatures can be employed as a reference to narrow down the spread of surface temperature climatologies on GCM preindustrial control and past millennium simulations.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of US air quality to mid-latitude cyclone frequency and implications of 1980–2006 climate change

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (23) ◽  
pp. 7075-7086 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. M. Leibensperger ◽  
L. J. Mickley ◽  
D. J. Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Strong Predictor ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Quality Standard ◽  
Ozone Pollution ◽  
Long Term Trend ◽  
Cyclone Frequency

Abstract. We show that the frequency of summertime mid-latitude cyclones tracking across eastern North America at 40°–50° N (the southern climatological storm track) is a strong predictor of stagnation and ozone pollution days in the eastern US. The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, going back to 1948, shows a significant long-term decline in the number of summertime mid-latitude cyclones in that track starting in 1980 (−0.15 a−1). The more recent but shorter NCEP/DOE Reanalysis (1979–2006) shows similar interannual variability in cyclone frequency but no significant long-term trend. Analysis of NOAA daily weather maps for 1980–2006 supports the trend detected in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1. A GISS general circulation model (GCM) simulation including historical forcing by greenhouse gases reproduces this decreasing cyclone trend starting in 1980. Such a long-term decrease in mid-latitude cyclone frequency over the 1980–2006 period may have offset by half the ozone air quality gains in the northeastern US from reductions in anthropogenic emissions. We find that if mid-latitude cyclone frequency had not declined, the northeastern US would have been largely compliant with the ozone air quality standard by 2001. Mid-latitude cyclone frequency is expected to decrease further over the coming decades in response to greenhouse warming and this will necessitate deeper emission reductions to achieve a given air quality goal.

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