Scenario approach to assessing the prospects for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy of countries (using the example of the United States, China and Russia)

2021 ◽  
pp. 654-665
Author(s):  
Veronika Grigoryevna Iordanova ◽  
Maria Alexandrovna Shapor ◽  
Buinta Yurievna Munchinova
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Development Scenarios ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Scenario Approach

The article is devoted to the study of the phenomenon of the scenario approach to assess the prospects for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economies of countries using the example of the largest world leaders: the United States, China, Russia. The emerging global epidemiological problem is a serious constraining factor for the development of the economies of states. From the point of view of scientifi c novelty, the analysis and assessment of development scenarios for the economies of the studied states can become the basis for drawing up an action plan to eliminate the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. To this end, within the framework of this work, scenarios of further development were considered for each of the countries. For Russia, the following scenarios were chosen baseline scenario — the pace of development of the world economy will be slow, full recovery will take place at the end of 2023; deflationary scenario — in this scenario, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the current restrictions, will persist for a long time. At the same time, oil prices will reach $ 50 per barrel only after 2023, inflation by 2023 will reach 1.5-2.5 %; pro-inflationary scenario — the effects of the pandemic will subside quickly enough, but the potential level of output in the global economy will fall deeper. At the same time, oil prices by 2023 will be $ 42–43 per barrel; risk scenario — within the framework of this scenario, the possibility of a repeat of the COVID-19 pandemic is allowed and the tightening of restrictive measures, which will negatively affect the economies of states, is not excluded. The choice of the studied states was determined not only by world leadership, but also by the degree of influence of the coronavirus on their economies. During the study, a forecast of key indicators of the economies of the United States, China and Russia for 2021 was carried out, the prospects for their dynamics in the current economic situation were assessed, and the main trends followed by the governments of states were examined and identified.

scholarly journals Prediction and comparison of the impact of COVID-19 epidemic on the financial industry of major countries based on neural intelligent algorithm

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (6) ◽  
pp. 8831-8838
Author(s):  
Bin Wang ◽  
Qingyuan Zhou
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Mutual Influence ◽  
The United States ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Intermediate Input ◽  
Financial Industry ◽  
Government Consumption ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The global economy appears the trend of anti-globalization under the influence of COVID-19. Based on the input-output table of lead database from 2006 to 2020, this paper divides the factors that affect the development of financial industry in China, the United States and Russia into six aspects: price, intermediate input, household consumption, government consumption, export and import. ADGA-BP neural network model is proposed in this paper, which is based on six aspects of price, intermediate input, consumer, government consumption, export and import. The intermediate input is decomposed from the perspective of industrial structure to study the interrelationship between financial industry and other industries in the three countries. The results show that the intermediate input is the main factor in the development of financial industry in the three countries, but the source industries of the intermediate input are not the same; the two factors of household consumption and price are closely related to the development of financial industry in the three countries, and they all play a role in promoting China, while the relationship between household consumption and the United States and between price and Russia is reverse; Government consumption only has a significant impact on Russia; from the perspective of mutual influence, the mutual investment between the financial industry of China and the United States is relatively large, while the relationship between the Russian financial industry and the two countries is relatively weak. It shows that under the background of covid-19, the development of financial industry is affected.

Moving toward a Global Supply Chain Operations and the Impact on International Competition

2012 ◽  
pp. 1626-1636
Author(s):  
Seyed-Mahmoud Aghazadeh
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Global Supply Chain ◽  
Global Supply Chains ◽  
Domestic Firms ◽  
Foreign Products ◽  
The Impact

As the domestic businesses expand, many are making the choice to use foreign products, labor, and services to aid in their production. Global supply chains are minimizing the costs of the production process but are also creating vulnerabilities to home countries. As the global economy changes, the competitiveness between countries grows. Competitiveness can affect everything from a country’s economy to how a firm conducts international business. Addressing the need to find a method to increase the United States competitiveness in the world economy by improving the use of global supply chains would help to make domestic firms more successful in the global economy. Studying how companies position themselves abroad is important to providing insight into how to become more competitive. Worldwide companies are diversifying by moving more of their supply chain to international locations. This is providing them with many benefits such as better markets for products, lower costs, and more advanced technologies. As a result, the competitive strategy of companies is to increase production and decrease costs through the most efficient global supply chain. Maximizing the potential of domestic firms’ global supply chains is one of the most effective ways to increase U.S. competitiveness. If more big businesses in the United States are willing to participate on the global level, then the US will be able to improve their competitiveness.

Moving toward a Global Supply Chain Operations and the Impact on International Competition

2013 ◽  
pp. 466-476
Author(s):  
Seyed-Mahmoud Aghazadeh
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Supply Chains ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Global Supply Chain ◽  
Global Supply Chains ◽  
Domestic Firms ◽  
Foreign Products ◽  
The Impact

As the domestic businesses expand, many are making the choice to use foreign products, labor, and services to aid in their production. Global supply chains are minimizing the costs of the production process but are also creating vulnerabilities to home countries. As the global economy changes, the competitiveness between countries grows. Competitiveness can affect everything from a country’s economy to how a firm conducts international business. Addressing the need to find a method to increase the United States competitiveness in the world economy by improving the use of global supply chains would help to make domestic firms more successful in the global economy. Studying how companies position themselves abroad is important to providing insight into how to become more competitive. Worldwide companies are diversifying by moving more of their supply chain to international locations. This is providing them with many benefits such as better markets for products, lower costs, and more advanced technologies. As a result, the competitive strategy of companies is to increase production and decrease costs through the most efficient global supply chain. Maximizing the potential of domestic firms’ global supply chains is one of the most effective ways to increase U.S. competitiveness. If more big businesses in the United States are willing to participate on the global level, then the US will be able to improve their competitiveness.

scholarly journals Czesław Miłosz’s Migrant Perspective in Rodzinna Europa [Native Realm]

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 342-349
Author(s):  
Ewa Kołodziejczyk
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
William Faulkner ◽  
Religious Diversity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
European Perspective ◽  
Central European ◽  
New Perspective ◽  
Post War ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The article traces the impact of Czesław Miłosz’s first American stay on his image of Central Europe in Rodzinna Europa [Native Realm]. In the United States, the post-war immigrant from Vilnius learned to perceive, understand and evaluate American culture; he also gained a new perspective on his region of Europe and Slavic immigrants. This experience enabled him to adopt an American point of view in his autobiographical essay. Following William Faulkner, Miłosz carries on an analysis of Eastern and Central Europe’s history and identities. The uses Western historical and sociological glossary to describe processes that formed his “native realm.” Analogically, the poet from pre-war Vilnius reflects on American multi-ethnicity and religious diversity from a Central European perspective. In Rodzinna Europa, Miłosz takes the position of a migrant translator and a two-way mediator between East and West.

A CROSS-CULTURAL STUDY ON RISK, UNCERTAINTY, AND INFORMATION

2010 ◽  
Vol 06 (02) ◽  
pp. 167-176
Author(s):  
YUMIKO NARA
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
United States Of America ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cross Cultural ◽  
Social Survey ◽  
Cross Cultural Study ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Impact

In this paper, the author aims to examine the differences in perception concerning the anxiety toward the risk among three countries — Japan, the United States of America and China. The anxiety, in this case, is triggered by uncertainty. This paper also intends to clarify the effect of information to improve people's risk management targeted on the respondents of the Chinese population focusing on earthquake disasters. The social survey using questionnaire has been carried out in order to obtain the needed quantitative data for my research project. It is interesting to conclude that both respondents in China and in the United States tend to accept the impact of uncertainty better. They have shown somewhat lower level of anxiety toward nineteen items of the risks as compared with that of the Japanese respondents. The significant effects on information designed as a part of the risk management action plan as well as the living sufficiency safeguard are clearly observed.

scholarly journals The United States-China Trade War: Empirical Assessment

2020 ◽  
pp. 35-45
Author(s):  
Victor Adjarho Ovuakporaye
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Economy ◽  
Trade Relation ◽  
Empirical Assessment ◽  
China Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Impact

This paper aims to explore the US-China trade war by looking at various issues surrounding the US-China trade relation. The US-China trade war had been imminent since January 2018, meritoriously commenced on 6 July 2018, which is still ongoing. The US imposed sanctions on various Chinese goods, which was counter by the Chinese side also. Both side have felt the effect of the trade war though China felt the impact more than United States. Though, both nations have recently held positive trade talks which leads to the first phase of negotiation the trade war is still ongoing. If the partnership between the United states and China collapses, this will also end up harming the global economy severely since they are crucial cornerstones of the international economy.

scholarly journals Global Fiscal Consolidation

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 124-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Warwick J. McKibbin ◽  
Andrew B. Stoeckel
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Domestic Economies ◽  
The U.S

The buildup in government debt in response to the “great recession,” has raised a number of policy dilemmas for individual countries as well as the world as a whole. The recent need for a change of fiscal policy stance has fuelled debates about the impact of fiscal consolidation on domestic economies that are tightening, the flow-on effects to the world economy, and also about how much tightening there should be and how quickly it should happen. This paper explores these issues in a global framework focusing on the national and global consequences of coordinated fiscal consolidation. It explores the implications this fiscal adjustment might have on country risk premia and what happens if all countries coordinate their fiscal adjustment except the United States. A coordinated fiscal consolidation in the industrial world that is not accompanied by U.S. actions is likely to lead to a substantial worsening of trade imbalances globally as the release of capital in fiscally contracting economies flows into the U.S. economy, appreciates the U.S. dollar, and worsens the current account position of the United States. The scale of this change is likely to be sufficient to substantially increase the probability of a trade war between the United States and other economies. To avoid this outcome, a coordinated fiscal adjustment is clearly in the interest of the global economy.

scholarly journals Assessment of the impact of US Energy Policy on world oil prices

2021 ◽  
Vol 69 (4) ◽  
pp. 111
Author(s):  
Larisa G. Chuvakhina ◽  
Nikolai A. Moldenhauer ◽  
Anahita Nasirbeik
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Energy Policy ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Green Energy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

The development of the energy sector in the United States of America (USA) represents a rivalry between two different approaches, which has intensified under the last three American administrations. The competition of approaches is expressed in the confrontation between supporters of energy based on renewable sources and supporters of traditional energy resources. A comparative analysis of changes in the energy sector, depending on the prevalence of a particular approach to energy development, shows that external conditions play a key role in promoting the energy strategy. The strategy of priority development of “green” energy carried out under Barack Obama could not be realized because of the shale boom. As a result, many companies working with renewable energy sources did not stand up to the competition. The opposite approach of Donald Trump’s focus on developing traditional energy resources to ensure US energy security and to increase jobs has been hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has virtually nullified the US administration’s efforts under this approach. The current concept of President J. Biden is aimed at continuing the strategy of Barack Obama for the development of “green” energy in the United States. Proponents of this concept hope for the possibility of its at least partial implementation in the absence of a shale boom. The lifting of the embargo on the export of American oil has led to an increase in oil supplies abroad. As of 2018, the United States has overtaken Saudi Arabia in terms of oil and gas exports, taking a leading position in the global oil market. In 2019-2020, the United States retained the first place in the world in oil production. This article examines the conceptual approaches of American administrations to the issue of energy policy and analyzes the statistical data that characterize the traditional and “clean energy” industries. An important factor is the degree of influence of the US energy policy on global oil prices. To analyze this issue, this research uses curved regression equations to assess the impact of US energy policy on world oil prices under the administrations of Barack Obama and Donald Trump. The results of the correlation show that a more effective interaction between the variables was carried out during the presidency of Barack Obama, when Exports of Crude Oil influenced the price dynamics of oil quotes with an inverse relationship. With the arrival of the Biden administration, the strategy started under Obama in favor of developing clean energy was continued. In the context of the spread of covid-19, the growth of crisis phenomena in the national economy, the growth of production costs in the oil and gas industry, and the fall in the world energy prices, the development of green energy can have a certain effect, given the Biden administration’s approach to energy development. The subsequent actions of the Biden administration may offset Trump’s efforts to develop traditional energy to strengthen the economic potential of the United States and strengthen the position of American companies in the global oil market.

TRADE WAR BETWEEN CHINA AND THE USA FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF RUSSIAN NATIONAL INTERESTS

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.S. Batagaeva ◽  
◽  
A.D. Rakhimova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Conflict ◽  
The United States ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Impact

The paper evaluated the impact of the of the trade war between China and the United States on the Russian economy. The main spheres of the Russian economy affected by the international conflict are highlighted and the impact on them is assessed.

scholarly journals COVID-19 and Spillover Effect of Global Economic Crisis on the United States’ Financial Stability

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khurram Shehzad ◽  
Liu Xiaoxing ◽  
Faik Bilgili ◽  
Emrah Koçak
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Financial Instability ◽  
Future Expectations ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Due to the novel coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19), the lockdown engendered has had a vicious impact on the global economy. This analysis’ prime intention is to evaluate the impact of the United States’ economic and health crisis as a result of COVID-19 on its financial stability. Additionally, the investigation analyzed the spillover impact of the worldwide economic slowdown experienced by COVID-19 on the United States’ financial volatility. The study applied an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and discovered that the economic and health crises that occurred in the United States portentously upset the future expectations of its investors. Conspicuously, the health crisis in Spain and Italy were ominous spillovers of the United States’ financial instability in the short-run. Likewise, an economic crisis ensued in the United Kingdom because of COVID-19 causing spillover for the United States markets’ financial instability. The examination evaluated that Asian and African nations’ economic crises perilously affects the United States’ financial stability. The study determined that financial instability occurred in the United States due to its own economic and health crises persisted for a longer period than financial disequilibrium that occurred in other nations. The analysis suggested some strategies of smart lockdown that the government of the United States and other nations should follow to restart the economic cycle through tighter controls to minimize losses by following the steps of (a) preparing a lockdown checklist, (b) monitoring completion of lockdown tasks, and (c) complete a close-down stock take or count.

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