scholarly journals Efficacy of Mass Quarantine as Leverage of Health System Governance During COVID-19 Outbreak: A Mini Policy Review

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 265-267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Hossein Taghrir ◽  
Hossein Akbarialiabad ◽  
Milad Ahmadi Marzaleh
Keyword(s):  
Health System ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
The Public ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
Health System Governance ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City ◽  
Health Policymaking

On January 23, 2020, the Chinese government announced the city lockdown of Wuhan. Since then, there have been controversial debates among experts about the efficacy of mass quarantine, the oldest and probably one of the most effective methods for controlling infectious disease outbreaks. The impact of health policymaking section of health system governance becomes visible to all stakeholders and the public in such emergency contexts. The success and failure of such policies should be evaluated in order to find the proper course of action for the local and international communities. In this review, we aim to investigate the efficacy of mass quarantine in China during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We found good quality evidence for the effectiveness of mass quarantine during the current stage of COVID-19 pandemic, and these strategies seem to have been highly effective in controlling the spread of the disease.

scholarly journals Mental health services for infectious disease outbreaks including COVID-19: a rapid systematic review

2020 ◽  
Vol 50 (15) ◽  
pp. 2498-2513
Author(s):  
Jing-Li Yue ◽  
Wei Yan ◽  
Yan-Kun Sun ◽  
Kai Yuan ◽  
Si-Zhen Su ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Mental Illnesses ◽  
Stepped Care ◽  
Research Database ◽  
The Public ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Culturally Adapted ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe upsurge in the number of people affected by the COVID-19 is likely to lead to increased rates of emotional trauma and mental illnesses. This article systematically reviewed the available data on the benefits of interventions to reduce adverse mental health sequelae of infectious disease outbreaks, and to offer guidance for mental health service responses to infectious disease pandemic. PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, PsycINFO, WHO Global Research Database on infectious disease, and the preprint server medRxiv were searched. Of 4278 reports identified, 32 were included in this review. Most articles of psychological interventions were implemented to address the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, followed by Ebola, SARS, and MERS for multiple vulnerable populations. Increasing mental health literacy of the public is vital to prevent the mental health crisis under the COVID-19 pandemic. Group-based cognitive behavioral therapy, psychological first aid, community-based psychosocial arts program, and other culturally adapted interventions were reported as being effective against the mental health impacts of COVID-19, Ebola, and SARS. Culturally-adapted, cost-effective, and accessible strategies integrated into the public health emergency response and established medical systems at the local and national levels are likely to be an effective option to enhance mental health response capacity for the current and for future infectious disease outbreaks. Tele-mental healthcare services were key central components of stepped care for both infectious disease outbreak management and routine support; however, the usefulness and limitations of remote health delivery should also be recognized.

scholarly journals Digital proximity tracing on empirical contact networks for pandemic control

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Cencetti ◽  
G. Santin ◽  
A. Longa ◽  
E. Pigani ◽  
A. Barrat ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Physical Distance ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Contact Data ◽  
The Impact

AbstractDigital contact tracing is a relevant tool to control infectious disease outbreaks, including the COVID-19 epidemic. Early work evaluating digital contact tracing omitted important features and heterogeneities of real-world contact patterns influencing contagion dynamics. We fill this gap with a modeling framework informed by empirical high-resolution contact data to analyze the impact of digital contact tracing in the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate how well contact tracing apps, coupled with the quarantine of identified contacts, can mitigate the spread in real environments. We find that restrictive policies are more effective in containing the epidemic but come at the cost of unnecessary large-scale quarantines. Policy evaluation through their efficiency and cost results in optimized solutions which only consider contacts longer than 15–20 minutes and closer than 2–3 meters to be at risk. Our results show that isolation and tracing can help control re-emerging outbreaks when some conditions are met: (i) a reduction of the reproductive number through masks and physical distance; (ii) a low-delay isolation of infected individuals; (iii) a high compliance. Finally, we observe the inefficacy of a less privacy-preserving tracing involving second order contacts. Our results may inform digital contact tracing efforts currently being implemented across several countries worldwide.

scholarly journals Threshold Effects of Infectious Disease Outbreaks on Livestock Prices: Cases of African Swine Fever and Avian Influenza in South Korea

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 5114
Author(s):  
Hyung-Chul Rah ◽  
Hyeon-Woong Kim ◽  
Aziz Nasridinov ◽  
Wan-Sup Cho ◽  
Seo-Hwa Choi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Avian Influenza ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
African Swine Fever ◽  
Threshold Effect ◽  
Impact Response ◽  
Threshold Effects ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Retail Prices ◽  
The Impact

In this paper we demonstrate the threshold effects of infectious diseases on livestock prices. Daily retail prices of pork and chicken were used as structured data; news and SNS mentions of African Swine Fever (ASF) and Avian Influenza (AI) were used as unstructured data. Models were tested for the threshold effects of disease-related news and SNS frequencies, specifically those related to ASF and AI, on the retail prices of pork and chicken, respectively. The effects were found to exist, and the values of ASF-related news on pork prices were estimated to be −9 and 8, indicating that the threshold autoregressive (TAR) model can be divided into three regimes. The coefficients of the ASF-related SNS frequencies on pork prices were 1.1666, 0.2663 and −0.1035 for regimes 1, 2 and 3, respectively, suggesting that pork prices increased by 1.1666 Korean won in regime 1 when ASF-related SNS frequencies increased. To promote pork consumption by SNS posts, the required SNS frequencies were estimated to have impacts as great as one standard deviation in the pork price. These values were 247.057, 1309.158 and 2817.266 for regimes 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The impact response periods for pork prices were estimated to last 48, 6, and 8 days for regimes 1, 2 and 3, respectively. When the prediction accuracies of the TAR and autoregressive (AR) models with regard to pork prices were compared for the root mean square error, the prediction accuracy of the TAR model was found to be slightly better than that of the AR. When the threshold effect of AI-related news on chicken prices was tested, a linear relationship appeared without a threshold effect. These findings suggest that when infectious diseases such as ASF occur for the first time, the impact on livestock prices is significant, as indicated by the threshold effect and the long impact response period. Our findings also suggest that the impact on livestock prices is not remarkable when infectious diseases occur multiple times, as in the case of AI. To date, this study is the first to suggest the use of SNS to promote meat consumption.

The Landscape of War and the Transformations of the Public Sphere

2019 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 62-67
Author(s):  
Dijana Alic
Keyword(s):  
The European Union ◽  
Independent State ◽  
The Public ◽  
Time Space ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Public Sphere ◽  
Modern Warfare ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City ◽  
Edward Soja

On 6 april 1992, the european union (eu) recognised bosnia and hercegovina as a new independent state, no longer a part of the socialist federal republic of Yugoslavia. The event marked the start of the siege of sarajevo, which lasted nearly four years, until late february 1996. It became the longest siege in the history of modern warfare, outlasting the leningrad enclosure by a year. During its 1425 days, more than 11,500 people were killed. The attacks left a trail of destruction across the city, which began to transform it in ways not experienced before. This paper explores how the physical transformation of sarajevo affected the ways in which meaning and significance were assigned to its built fabric. I argue that the changes imposed by war and the daily destruction of the city challenged long-established relationships between the built fabric and those who inhabited the city, introducing new modes of thinking and interpreting the city. Loosely placing the discussion within the framework of ‘Thirdspace', established by urban theorist and cultural geographer edward soja, i discuss the relationship that emerged between the historicality, sociality and spatiality of war-torn sarajevo. Whether responding to the impacts of physical destruction or dramatic social change, the nexus of time, space and being shows that the concept of spatiality is essential to comprehending the world and to adjusting to and resisting the impact of extraordinary circumstances. Recognising the continuation of daily life as essential to survival sheds light on processes of renewal and change in a war-affected landscape. These shattered urban spaces also show the ways in which people make a sense of place in relation to specific socio-historical environments and political contexts.

scholarly journals Empirically evaluating the impact of adjudicative tribunals in the health sector: context, challenges and opportunities

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-174
Author(s):  
Steven J. Hoffman ◽  
Lorne Sossin
Keyword(s):  
Health System ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
System Level ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
External Impact ◽  
Health System Governance ◽  
Evaluation Matrix ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Methodological Difficulties

AbstractAdjudicative tribunals are an integral part of health system governance, yet their real-world impact remains largely unknown. Most assessments focus on internal accountability and use anecdotal methodologies; few, studies if any, empirically evaluate their external impact and use these data to test effectiveness, track performance, inform service improvements and ultimately strengthen health systems. Given that such assessments would yield important benefits and have been conducted successfully in similar settings (e.g. specialist courts), their absence is likely attributable to complexity in the health system, methodological difficulties and the legal environment within which tribunals operate. We suggest practical steps for potential evaluators to conduct empirical impact evaluations along with an evaluation matrix template featuring possible target outcomes and corresponding surrogate endpoints, performance indicators and empirical methodologies. Several system-level strategies for supporting such assessments have also been suggested for academics, health system institutions, health planners and research funders. Action is necessary to ensure that policymakers do not continue operating without evidence but can rather pursue data-driven strategies that are more likely to achieve their health system goals in a cost-effective way.

scholarly journals COVID-19: Examining the case growth-rate due to Visitor vs Local Mobility using Machine Learning: A Study in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
satya katragadda ◽  
ravi teja bhupatiraju ◽  
vijay raghavan ◽  
ziad ashkar ◽  
raju gottumukkala
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mobile Phone Data ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Local Mobility ◽  
Local Risk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background: Travel patterns of humans play a major part in the spread of infectious diseases. This was evident in the geographical spread of COVID-19 in the United States. However, the impact of this mobility and the transmission of the virus due to local travel, compared to the population traveling across state boundaries, is unknown. This study evaluates the impact of local vs. visitor mobility in understanding the growth in the number of cases for infectious disease outbreaks. Methods: We use two different mobility metrics, namely the local risk and visitor risk extracted from trip data generated from anonymized mobile phone data across all 50 states in the United States. We analyzed the impact of just using local trips on infection spread and infection risk potential generated from visitors' trips from various other states. We used the Diebold-Mariano test to compare across three machine learning models. Finally, we compared the performance of models, including visitor mobility for all the three waves in the United States and across all 50 states. Results: We observe that visitor mobility impacts case growth and that including visitor mobility in forecasting the number of COVID-19 cases improves prediction accuracy by 34. We found the statistical significance with respect to the performance improvement resulting from including visitor mobility using the Diebold-Mariano test. We also observe that the significance was much higher during the first peak March to June 2020. Conclusion: With presence of cases everywhere (i.e. local and visitor), visitor mobility (even within the country) is shown to have significant impact on growth in number of cases. While it is not possible to account for other factors such as the impact of interventions, and differences in local mobility and visitor mobility, we find that these observations can be used to plan for both reopening and limiting visitors from regions where there are high number of cases.

scholarly journals Monitoring for outbreak associated excess mortality in an African city: Detection limits in Antananarivo, Madagascar

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fidisoa Rasambainarivo ◽  
Anjarasoa Rasoanomenjanahary ◽  
Joelinotahiana Hasina Rabarison ◽  
Tanjona Ramiadantsoa ◽  
Rila Ratovoson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
African City ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Notification System ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Measles Outbreak ◽  
Death Notification ◽  
Notification Data ◽  
The Impact

AbstractQuantitative estimates of the impact of infectious disease outbreaks are required to develop measured policy responses. In many low- and middle-income countries, inadequate surveillance and incompleteness of death registration are important barriers. Here, we characterize how large an impact on mortality would have to be to be detectable using the uniquely detailed mortality notification data from the city of Antananarivo in Madagascar, with application to a recent measles outbreak. The weekly mortality rate of children during the 2018-2019 measles outbreak was 154% above the expected value at its peak, and the signal can be detected earlier in children than in the general population. This approach to detecting anomalies from expected baseline mortality allows us to delineate the prevalence of COVID-19 at which excess mortality would be detectable with the existing death notification system in the capital of Madagascar. Given current age-specific estimates of the COVID-19 fatality ratio and the age structure of the population in Antananarivo, we estimate that as few as 11 deaths per week in the 60-70 years age group (corresponding to an infection rate of approximately 1%) would detectably exceed the baseline. Data from 2020 will undergo necessary processing and quality control in the coming months. Our results provide a baseline for interpreting this information.

scholarly journals (Re)discovering Toronto's waterfront: infrastructure and connectivity in a post-industrial landscape

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geordie Gordon
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Processes ◽  
Urban Forms ◽  
Industrial Landscape ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
Waterfront Redevelopment ◽  
Industrial Use ◽  
Post Industrial ◽  
The Impact ◽  
American Cities ◽  
The City

The transition of waterfront land use from industrial to post-industrial is a global phenomenon. There are several forces that are driving this change, including the advancement of shipping technology and the relocation of industrial processes to areas with greater availability of land. In place of industrial uses, many cities have undertaken, or are in the process of undertaking the redevelopment of their waterfront. As a result of past industrial use, there often exists, a significant amount of transportation infrastructure that isolates the city from the waterfront. This paper establishes the context for waterfront redevelopment, before examining the impact of infrastructure urban forms by using the work of Kevin Lynch as a tool for analysis. Several case precedents are used to examine the course of action that other North American cities have pursued to mitigate the impact of infrastructure forms on the waterfront and how they may influence the way Toronto deals with its waterfront infrastructure.

scholarly journals HCFMUSP: Resilience in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (spe) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcelo Caldeira Pedroso ◽  
João Teixeira Pires ◽  
Ana Maria Malik ◽  
Antonio José Rodrigues Pereira
Keyword(s):  
Knowledge Management ◽  
Health System ◽  
Crisis Management ◽  
System Capacity ◽  
New Disease ◽  
Healthcare Operations ◽  
Teaching Case ◽  
Health System Governance ◽  
Emergency Actions ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT The teaching case describes a set of emergency actions taken by HCFMUSP to manage the needs brought by the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. The case objective considers the issues related to the impact of the pandemic mostly in healthcare operations, emphasizing how to: (a) adapt health system governance in response to a crisis (crisis management); (b) manage the health system capacity, which traditionally is not so resilient; (c) deal with a new disease (knowledge management). Thus, it should allow gathering elements for the management of future crises.

scholarly journals Mixed Fuzzy-Logic and Game-Theoretical Approach to Justify Vehicle Models for Servicing the Public Bus Line

2022 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. A26-A34
Author(s):  
Vitalii Naumov ◽  
Laura Bekmagambetova ◽  
Zukhra Bitileuova ◽  
Zhumazhan Zhanbirov ◽  
Igor Taran
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Software Implementation ◽  
Rational Structure ◽  
The Public ◽  
City Bus ◽  
Game Theoretical Approach ◽  
Passenger Flows ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

One of the main problems to be solved by the transport operators is the substantiation of the vehicle models servicing the transport lines. A gametheoretical approach is proposed in this paper to justify the bus model choice based on the passengers’ preferences and the structure of the passenger flows. To estimate the customers’ preferences, the membership functions for fuzzy sets of the optimal vehicle models were defined. The simulation experiment aiming to estimate the city fleet structure in terms of the vehicles’ capacity was conducted for the Talas city (Kazakhstan) based on the proposed approach with use of the corresponding software implementation of the developed mathematical models. As a result of the experimental studies, the impact of the passengers’ flow structure and the number of carriers on the rational structure of the city bus fleet was studied in the paper.

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