Model Statistika Prediksi Energi Surya Dengan Menggunakan Autoregresif Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)

Jurnal MIPA ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 181
Author(s):  
Imriani Moroki ◽  
Alfrets Septy Wauran
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Solar Energy ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Energy Potential ◽  
Good Design ◽  
Potential Sources ◽  
The Common

Energi terbarukan adalah salah satu masalah energi paling terkenal saat ini. Ada beberapa sumber potensial energi terbarukan. Salah satu energi terbarukan yang umum dan sederhana adalah energi matahari. Masalah besar ketersediaan energi saat ini adalah terbatasnya sumber energi konvensional seperti bahan bakar. Ini semua sumber energi memiliki banyak masalah karena memiliki jumlah energi yang terbatas. Penting untuk membuat model dan analisis berdasarkan ketersediaan sumber energi. Energi matahari adalah energi terbarukan yang paling disukai di negara-negara khatulistiwa saat ini. Tergantung pada produksi energi surya di daerah tertentu untuk memiliki desain dan analisis energi matahari yang baik. Untuk memiliki analisis yang baik tentang itu, dalam makalah ini kami membuat model prediksi energi surya berdasarkan data iradiasi matahari. Kami membuat model energi surya dan angin dengan menggunakan Metode Autoregresif Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Model ini diimplementasikan oleh R Studio yang kuat dari statistik. Sebagai hasil akhir, kami mendapatkan model statistik solar yang dibandingkan dengan data aktualRenewable energy is one of the most fomous issues of energy today. There are some renewable energy potential sources. One of the common n simple renewable energy is solar energy. The big problem of the availability of energy today is the limeted sources of conventional enery like fuel. This all energy sources have a lot of problem because it has a limited number of energy. It is important to make a model and analysis based on the availability of the energy sources. Solar energy is the most prefered renewable energy in equator countries today. It depends on the production of solar energy in certain area to have a good design and analysis of  the solar energy. To have a good analysis of it, in this paper we make a prediction model of solar energy based on the data of solar irradiation. We make the solar and wind enery model by using Autoregresif Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Method. This model is implemented by R Studio that is a powerfull of statistical. As the final result, we got the statistical model of solar comparing with the actual data

scholarly journals TECHNO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF AN OFF-GRID HYBRID ENERGY SYSTEM WITH HOMER PRO

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 56-61
Author(s):  
Ahmet Erhan AKAN
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Solar Energy ◽  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Energy Conversion ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Lithium Ion ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Renewable Energy Resources ◽  
Energy Potential ◽  
Economic Point

The decrease in fossil-based energy sources and increasing environmental problems increase the tendency to renewable energy sources day by day. The potential of renewable energy sources differs according to the region where the energy will be produced. For this reason, it is crucial to conduct a good feasibility study that deals with the selected systems from a technical and economic point of view before making an investment decision on energy conversion systems based on renewable energy sources. In this study, the most suitable equipment and capacities were investigated by examining the techno-economic analysis of a hybrid system created with wind-solar renewable energies for a detached house, which is considered off-grid, in a rural area of Tekirdağ province (40o58.7ı N, 27o30.7ı E). Investigations were carried out using the HOMER Pro (Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewable) program. The wind and solar energy potential of Tekirdağ province were obtained from the NASA renewable energy resources database added to the HOMER Pro program. The daily electricity requirement of the sample house was chosen as 11.27 kWh, and the current peak electrical load was chosen as 2.39 kW. A wind turbine is connected to the AC busbars, solar collectors and battery group connected to the DC busbars, and a converter that converts energy between AC and DC busbars in the energy conversion system. In order to determine the optimum capacities of the system elements, 27486 different simulations were performed by HOMER Pro. The selection of the most suitable system among these was determined according to the lowest net present cost (NPC) value. In addition, the energy production capacities that will occur in the case of different wind speeds were also investigated. Accordingly, the system to be installed with a solar panel with a capacity of 6.25 kW, PV-MPPT with a capacity of 1 kW, 2 wind turbines with a capacity of 1 kW, 8 Lithium-ion batteries with a capacity of 6V-167 Ah, and a converter with a capacity of 2.5 kW has been determined will generate electrical energy of 5433 kWh per year. In addition, it has been determined that 61.8% of this produced energy will be obtained from solar energy and 38.2% from wind energy, and the simple payback period of the investment will be 14 years. It is thought that this study will provide valuable information to researchers and investors.

scholarly journals CURRENT STATE OF THE RENEWABLE SOURCES OF ENERGY USE IN SERBIA

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dragana Milosavljević ◽  
Tomislav Pavlovic ◽  
Dragoljub Mirjanić ◽  
Danica Piršl
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Solar Energy ◽  
Wind Energy ◽  
Geothermal Energy ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Energy Potential ◽  
Current State ◽  
Extensive Body

This paper reviews the current state of the renewable energy use in Serbia. Further on, the paper describes energy potential and gives examples of the use of solar energy, wind energy, hydropower, geothermal energy, biomass and biogas in Serbia. Extensive body of information is given about support systems and measures of incentives for the investment in the construction and sale of electricity from plants using renewable energy sources. In conclusion, achieved results of the use of renewable energy sources in Serbia and the incentives for their use are presented.

scholarly journals Analysis of the Development Opportunities of Solar Systems in Serbia

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 85-92
Author(s):  
Jasna Tolmac ◽  
Slavica Prvulovic ◽  
Marija Nedic ◽  
Dragisa Tolmac
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Solar Energy ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Energy Potential ◽  
Solar Systems ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Favorable Conditions

AbstractThe paper analyzes the development opportunities of solar systems in the Republic of Serbia. Renewable energy sources and their energy potential, such as solar energy, should be considered in order to meet the needs of consumers. Solar energy can be considered the most modern renewable energy whose utility is still developing, and it is not represented as the utilization of hydro energy sources. Researches show that Serbia is a country with a high RES potential and that it has favorable conditions for production of electrical and heat energy from renewable sources. The aim of this paper is to present the possibilities of using solar energy in Serbia. Energy supply from renewable energy sources is a key factor for each country's strategy, because it directly contributes to reducing the negative effect on the environment.

scholarly journals DESAIN PEMBANGKIT LISTRIK TENAGA SURYA PADA DAERAH PESISIR KUALA TUNGKAL TANJAB BARAT

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 69
Author(s):  
Myson Myson
Keyword(s):  
Energy Source ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Solar Energy ◽  
Current Efficiency ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Electrical Energy ◽  
Solar Panel ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Energy Potential ◽  
Short Time

AbstrakEnergi surya (matahari) merupakan salah satu sumber energi terbarukan yang paling penting dan sangat berlimpah di Indonesia. Dengan potensinya yang sangat besar tersebut, energi surya diyakini menjadi sumber energi utama di masa depan. Eenergi surya di Indonesia sangatlah besar. Indonesia memiliki sekitar 4.8 KWh/m2 atau setara dengan 112.000 GWp energi surya. Sayangnya energi surya ini belum mendapatkan porsi yang semestinya di negara ini. Dari total potensi energi surya tersebut, Indonesia baru memanfaatkan sekitar 10 MWp. Hambatan yang masih sering terjadi pada penggunaan PLTS ini adalah pada tidak dapatnya diprediksi keacaan cuaca dalam waktu yang singkat, sehingga produksi energi listrik sulit dapat memenuhi target yang diharapkan, dan hal ini membuat ketidak nyamanan pengguna. Perlunya penelitian terhadap efisiensi modul solar panel, karena saat ini efisiensi yang dihasilkan modul solar panel masih sangat rendah, sehingga untuk mendapatkan 1 KWh energi listrik masih tergolong sangat mahal.Abstract Solar energy (sunlight) is one of the renewable energy sources the most important and very abundant in Indonesia. With such huge potential, solar energy is believed to be the main energy source in the future. Solar Eenergi in Indonesia is very large. Indonesia has around 4.8 KWh / m2 or equivalent to 112,000 GWp of solar energy. Unfortunately, solar energy has not received the proper portion of the country. Of the total solar energy potential, Indonesia has only utilized approximately 10 MWp. Barriers are still common in the use of solar power is at the inability to predict the weather keacaan in a short time, so the production of electrical energy is difficult to meet the expected targets, and this makes it an inconvenience for the user. The need for research on the efficiency of solar panel modules, because the current efficiency of the resulting solar panel module is still very low, so to get 1 kWh of electrical energy is still relatively very expensive.

scholarly journals Agricultural Residue Management for Sustainable Power Generation: The Poland Case Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (13) ◽  
pp. 5907
Author(s):  
Valerii Havrysh ◽  
Antonina Kalinichenko ◽  
Anna Brzozowska ◽  
Jan Stebila
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Agricultural Waste ◽  
Energy Utilization ◽  
Evaluation Methodology ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Energy Potential ◽  
Agricultural Residue

The European Union has set targets for renewable energy utilization. Poland is a member of the EU, and its authorities support an increase in renewable energy use. The background of this study is based on the role of renewable energy sources in improving energy security and mitigation of climate change. Agricultural waste is of a significant role in bioenergy. However, there is a lack of integrated methodology for the measurement of its potential. The possibility of developing an integrated evaluation methodology for renewable energy potential and its spatial distribution was assumed as the hypothesis. The novelty of this study is the integration of two renewable energy sources: crop residues and animal husbandry waste (for biogas). To determine agricultural waste energy potential, we took into account straw requirements for stock-raising and soil conservation. The total energy potential of agricultural waste was estimated at 279.94 PJ. It can cover up to 15% of national power generation. The spatial distribution of the agricultural residue energy potential was examined. This information can be used to predict appropriate locations for biomass-based power generation facilities. The potential reduction in carbon dioxide emissions ranges from 25.7 to 33.5 Mt per year.

scholarly journals Mapping and Estimation of Monthly Global Solar Irradiation in Different Zones in Souss-Massa Area, Morocco, Using Artificial Neural Networks

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Nait Mensour ◽  
S. Bouaddi ◽  
B. Abnay ◽  
B. Hlimi ◽  
A. Ihlal
Keyword(s):  
Solar Energy ◽  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Kriging Interpolation ◽  
Solar Pv ◽  
Energy Potential ◽  
Global Solar Irradiation ◽  
Interpolation Technique ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
Hidden Layer

Solar radiation data play an important role in solar energy research. However, in regions where the meteorological stations providing these data are unavailable, strong mapping and estimation models are needed. For this reason, we have developed a model based on artificial neural network (ANN) with a multilayer perceptron (MLP) technique to estimate the monthly average global solar irradiation of the Souss-Massa area (located in the southwest of Morocco). In this study, we have used a large database provided by NASA geosatellite database during the period from 1996 to 2005. After testing several models, we concluded that the best model has 25 nodes in the hidden layer and results in a minimum root mean square error (RMSE) equal to 0.234. Furthermore, almost a perfect correlation coefficient R=0.988 was found between measured and estimated values. This developed model was used to map the monthly solar energy potential of the Souss-Massa area during a year as estimated by the ANN and designed with the Kriging interpolation technique. By comparing the annual average solar irradiation between three selected sites in Souss-Massa, as estimated by our model, and six European locations where large solar PV plants are deployed, it is apparent that the Souss-Massa area is blessed with higher solar potential.

scholarly journals Wind Data Analysis and Wind Flow Simulation Over Large Areas

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-45
Author(s):  
Angel Terziev ◽  
Ivan Antonov ◽  
Rositsa Velichkova
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Wind Energy ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Wind Flow ◽  
Energy Potential ◽  
Wind Potential ◽  
Wind Energy Potential ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Increasing the share of renewable energy sources is one of the core policies of the European Union. This is because of the fact that this energy is essential in reducing the greenhouse gas emissions and securing energy supplies. Currently, the share of wind energy from all renewable energy sources is relatively low. The choice of location for a certain wind farm installation strongly depends on the wind potential. Therefore the accurate assessment of wind potential is extremely important. In the present paper an analysis is made on the impact of significant possible parameters on the determination of wind energy potential for relatively large areas. In the analysis the type of measurements (short- and long-term on-site measurements), the type of instrumentation and the terrain roughness factor are considered. The study on the impact of turbulence on the wind flow distribution over complex terrain is presented, and it is based on the real on-site data collected by the meteorological tall towers installed in the northern part of Bulgaria. By means of CFD based software a wind map is developed for relatively large areas. Different turbulent models in numerical calculations were tested and recommendations for the usage of the specific models in flows modeling over complex terrains are presented. The role of each parameter in wind map development is made. Different approaches for determination of wind energy potential based on the preliminary developed wind map are presented.

scholarly journals DEVELOPMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY IN UKRAINE IN THE CONTEXT OF THE TRANSITION TO THE CARBON-NEUTRAL ECONOMY

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Pimonenko ◽  
O. Lyulyov ◽  
N. Letunovska ◽  
O. Lytvynenko ◽  
A. Nazarenko
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Solar Energy ◽  
Alternative Energy ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Alternative Energy Sources ◽  
Research And Innovation ◽  
Leading Position

The article aims to study current trends in the use of solar energy in Ukraine and the world as one of the main directions of decarbonization of the national economy. The authors systematize the prospects, advantages and disadvantages of the development of renewable energy sources. They conducted a comparative analysis of the "efficiency" of solar energy in some countries and Ukraine. The authors determined that the leading position in terms of the share of energy consumed from renewable sources is occupied by countries with developed economies due to the availability of effective motivational mechanisms. From the experience of EU countries, the authors concluded that renewable energy sources form a prerequisite for obtaining additional socio-economic and environmental effects. In the presence of favorable market conditions, renewable energy sources can increase the level of energy security in the country and its energy independence. The article analyzes the legislation of Ukraine on stimulating the development of alternative energy. The authors proposed two opposed ways of further developing solar energy in Ukraine. In particular, the country can implement methods of using alternative energy, which developed countries have successfully implemented. Another area involves increasing research and innovation in implementing, using, maintaining, and utilizing energy-generating devices from alternative energy sources. Despite the polarity of the proposed directions for further development of renewable energy, in both cases, the state policy on attracting investment and promoting the use of energy from alternative energy sources is crucial. In addition, the authors noted the benefits for society from the development and implementation of alternative energy sources. The scaling up and promotion of energy production technologies from alternative sources can reduce carbon emissions, which has been an urgent problem globally.

scholarly journals PROSPECTS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR LOW-RISE BUILDINGS IN CRIMEA

2020 ◽  
pp. 85-93
Author(s):  
N. V. Tsopa ◽  
A. E. Dikarev
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Solar Energy ◽  
Power Supply ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
The World ◽  
The Crimea

in the article provides a comparative analysis of the development of solar energy in the world, in the European Union, in Russia and in Crimea; the advantages and disadvantages of the use of solar energy, the features of the use of renewable energy sources are considered, the use of solar energy in the Crimea is justified; describes the mechanism of a feasibility study for the use of autonomous power supply for low-rise buildings in Crimea.

The Forecasting of Renewable Energy Generation for Turkey by Artificial Neural Networks and a Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving-Average Model -2023 Generation Targets by Renewable Energy Resources

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
özlem karadag albayrak
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Energy Generation ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Renewable Energy Generation

Abstract Turkey attaches particular importance to energy generation by renewable energy sources in order to remove negative economic, environmental and social effects caused by fossil resources in energy generation. Renewable energy sources are domestic and do not have any negative effect, such as external dependence in energy and greenhouse gas, caused by fossil resources and which constitute a threat for sustainable economic development. In this respect, the prediction of energy amount to be generated by Renewable Energy (RES) is highly important for Turkey. In this study, a generation forecasting was carried out by Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methods by utilising the renewable energy generation data between 1965-2019. While it was predicted by ANN that 127.516 TWh energy would be generated in 2023, this amount was estimated to be 45.457 TeraWatt Hour (TWh) by ARIMA (1.1.6) model. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was calculated in order to specify the error margin of the forecasting models. This value was determined to be 13.1% by ANN model and 21.9% by ARIMA model. These results suggested that the ANN model provided a more accurate result. It is considered that the conclusions achieved in this study will be useful in energy planning and management.

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