scholarly journals Mortality and case fatality rates of covid-19 in the state of goiás, brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 521-532
Author(s):  
Rodrigo Alexandre Trivilato ◽  
Tassiane Cristina Morais ◽  
Blanca Elena Guerrero Daboin ◽  
Matheus Paiva Emidio Cavalcant ◽  
Lucas Cauê Jacintho ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
The State ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Socioeconomic Vulnerability ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Mortality Case ◽  
Second Wave

Introduction: the initial spread of the pandemic in Brazil was mainly affected by patterns of socioeconomic vulnerability. It should be noted that the Central-West region of Brazil is one of the regions with the lowest number of cases, but the states of this region together have the highest mortality rate of COVID-19 in the country. Goiás was the most affected state of this region, with the highest number of deaths in the area. Objective: to assess the incidence of mortality and lethality caused by COVID-19 from March 2020 to June 2021 in the State of Goiás, Brazil. Methods: an ecological study, using a series of time series of public and official data of the Department of Health of the State of Goiás, Brazil. Information was collected on cases and deaths from COVID-19 from March 2020 to June 2021. Mortality, case fatality, and incidence rates were calculated. The Prais-Wisten regression model was used to build time series. The daily percent change (DPC) and the effective reproductive number (Rt) were estimated. Results: Goiás had a predominance of a greater viral spread during the first and the beginning of the second wave, with Rt higher than 1. The second wave from December 2020 to June 2021 was more lethal and had higher mortality rates than the first wave. It was observed, higher scores of case fatality and mortality belonged to males and the elderly. Conclusion: an analysis of mortality and case fatality rates helps understand the COVID-19 pandemic behavior in Goiás. It is essential to monitor epidemiological indicators and strengthen intervention strategies to contain the pandemic in this state.

scholarly journals Epidemiological profile of covid-19 in the state of espírito santo, brazil, from march 2020 to june 2021

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 507-520
Author(s):  
Claudia Dobes Kawatake de Sousa ◽  
Tassiane Cristina Morais ◽  
Blanca Elena Guerrero Daboin ◽  
Isabella Portugal ◽  
Matheus Paiva Emidio Cavalcanti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Health Department ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
The State ◽  
Espírito Santo ◽  
Epidemiological Profile ◽  
Espirito Santo ◽  
Second Wave

Introduction: coronavirus 2019 Disease (COVID-19) was quickly declared a pandemic, and Brazil is facing the most significant health and hospital crisis in its history. From March to June 2021 represented 50.8% of all deaths in the State of Espirito Santo. Objective: to analyze the lethality and mortality by COVID-19 in the State of Espirito Santo from March 2020 to June 2021. Methods: an ecological study was carried out, using a time series of public and official data available on the Health Department of the State of Espirito Santo, Brazil. Were considered information about cases and deaths (from March 2020 to June 2021) of COVID-19. Percentage case-fatality and mortality and incidence rates per 100,000 population were calculated. Time-series analyses were performed using the Prais-Winsten regression model, estimating the Daily Percent Change (DPC), and the trends were classified as flat, increasing, or decreasing. Significant differences were considered when p<0.05. Results: 524,496 confirmed cases of COVID-19 as of June 30, 2021, and 11,516 progressed to death. The presence of cardiovascular diseases represents more than half of confirmed comorbidities (54.37%) in patients with COVID-19, followed by diabetes (19.95%) and obesity (9.34%). Men had higher mortality and lethality, especially in older age groups, but the incidence was higher among women. A characteristic profile of two waves was observed; the first wave was extended from March to October 2020 and the second complete wave from November 2020 to June 2021. During the second wave, high peaks of incidence, lethality, and mortality were recorded. At the end of the second wave, the incidence rate remained with increasing trends (p < 0.05), with a DPC of 2.06%. Conclusion: the peak concentration of cases, deaths, and indicators of lethality, mortality evidenced even after one year of pandemic, characterizes the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic, still in entire evolution in the State Espirito Santo and Brazil.

scholarly journals Nine Months of COVID-19 Pandemic in Europe: A Comparative Time Series Analysis of Cases and Fatalities in 35 Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (12) ◽  
pp. 6680
Author(s):  
David Meintrup ◽  
Martina Nowak-Machen ◽  
Stefan Borgmann
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Health Care Systems ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Three Phase ◽  
Strongly Connected ◽  
Care Systems ◽  
Second Wave

(1) Background: to describe the dynamic of the pandemic across 35 European countries over a period of 9 months. (2) Methods: a three-phase time series model was fitted for 35 European countries, predicting deaths based on SARS-CoV-2 incidences. Hierarchical clustering resulted in three clusters of countries. A multiple regression model was developed predicting thresholds for COVID-19 incidences, coupled to death numbers. (3) Results: The model showed strongly connected deaths and incidences during the waves in spring and fall. The corrected case-fatality rates ranged from 2% to 20.7% in the first wave, and from 0.5% to 4.2% in the second wave. If the incidences stay below a threshold, predicted by the regression model (R2=85.0%), COVID-19 related deaths and incidences were not necessarily coupled. The clusters represented different regions in Europe, and the corrected case-fatality rates in each cluster flipped from high to low or vice versa. Severely and less severely affected countries flipped between the first and second wave. (4) Conclusions: COVID-19 incidences and related deaths were uncoupled during the summer but coupled during two waves. Once a country-specific threshold of infections is reached, death numbers will start to rise, allowing health care systems and countries to prepare.

scholarly journals Evolution of mortality and lethality due to covid-19 in the state of Roraima, Brazil, from march 2020 to july 2021

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 447-457
Author(s):  
Edwin Vivanco Valenzuela ◽  
Tassiane Cristina de Morais ◽  
Blanca Guerrero Daboin ◽  
Matheus Paiva Emídio Cavalcanti ◽  
Isabella Batista Martins Portugal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Reduction Rate ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
The State ◽  
P Value ◽  
Northern Brazil ◽  
Poverty Indicators ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
Second Wave

Introduction: the context of the Covid-19 pandemic in the Brazilian North region is worrying. There is a lack of resources for Public Health, a low human development index, and poverty indicators above the national average. Objective: to analyze mortality and lethality from COVID-19 in the State of Roraima, Brazil. Methods: this is an ecological time-series study of secondary data on COVID-19 in Roraima, Northern Brazil, from March 2020 to July 2021. The incidence, mortality, and lethality rates due to COVID-19 were calculated. The Prais-Winsten regression model was used to calculate the time series trends. Trends were classified as increasing, decreasing, or stationary. The trend was considered static when the p-value was not significant (p>0.05). Results: in the state of Roraima, from March 2020 to July 2021, there were 123,125 cases and 1,903 accumulated deaths due to COVID-19. The first wave (March 2020 to October 2021) of COVID-19 recorded the incidence rate (2,995.30 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants - July 2020) and mortality (56.32 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants - June 2020) higher lethality. However, in the second wave (November 2020 to July 2021), the highest lethality rate was observed (3.47% - February 2021). It was observed that during the first wave, the incidence rate of COVID-19 showed increasing trends. During this period, the mortality rate had a stationary tendency (p>0.05) and the percentage lethality with a decreasing trend (p<0.05). During the second wave, there was a more aggravating scenario for lethality, which changed from a daily reduction rate of 0.90% to stationary trends. Conclusion: the pandemic in the state of Roraima is not yet under control, so it is necessary to strengthen strategies to mitigate the spread of the pandemic in the region and prevent the formation of new waves.

scholarly journals Analysis of COVID-19 mortality and case-fatality in a low- income region: an ecological time-series study in Tocantins, Brazilian Amazon

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 496-506
Author(s):  
Andre Evaristo Marcondes Cesar ◽  
Blanca Elena Guerrero Daboin ◽  
Tassiane Cristina Morais ◽  
Isabella Portugal ◽  
Jorge De Oliveira Echeimberg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Brazilian Amazon ◽  
Positive Outcome ◽  
Population Based ◽  
The State ◽  
Incidence Trends ◽  
Series Analysis

Introduction: Inserted in the vulnerable context of the Brazilian Amazon, the state of Tocantins has suffered damages with the dissemination of COVID-19 in its territory; however, little evidence is published from this state. Objective: This study aims to analyze the case-fatality, mortality, and incidence of COVID-19 in Tocantins. Methods: This is an ecological study, population-based, time-series analysis of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the state of Tocantins from March 2020 to August 2021. Results: During the examined period, 219,031 COVID-19 cases, and 3,594 deaths were registered due to disease. Two possible occurrence peaks were characterized in this time-series analysis. Remarkably, the Second Wave had the highest lethality rates (3.02% - April 2021), mortality (39.81 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants – March 2021), and incidence (1,938.88 cases per 100,000 inhabitants – March 2021). At the end of the period, mortality, incidence, and lethality showed flat trends, suggesting a positive outcome of the vaccination program. Conclusion: The prevention, surveillance, and control actions of COVID-19 cases in Tocantins State have been directed to mitigate the deleterious effects of the pandemic. Nevertheless, efforts are still needed to decrease lethality, mortality, and incidence trends, and ultimately to achieve control of the COVID-19 pandemic in the region.

scholarly journals COVID-19 mortality and lethality in the State of Pará, legal Amazon, Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 390-396
Author(s):  
Célia Guarnieri da Silva ◽  
Luiz Vinicius de Alcantara Sousa ◽  
Laércio Da Silva Paiva ◽  
Tassiane Cristina Morais ◽  
Mariane Albuquerque Lima Ribeiro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Ecological Study ◽  
Social Inequalities ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
The State ◽  
The North ◽  
Series Design ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
Second Wave

Introduction: the growth of coronavirus indices in the North region highlights the region’s historical social inequalities and the problems in accessing citizenship. Objective: to analyze the mortality and lethality of COVID-19 in the state of Pará, Brazil. Methods: this is an ecological study with a time series design of secondary data. All registered cases and deaths reported by COVID-19 in the period from March 2020 to June 2021, in the state of Pará, Brazil, were considered. The incidence and mortality and lethality rates were used. The daily percentage variation and their respective 95% confidence intervals were estimated. Results: the total number of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 in the state of Pará was 552,937 and 15,469, respectively, from March 2020 to June 2021. Incidence and mortality rates from March 2020 to June 2021 were, respectively, 6,407.9 and 179.3 per 100,000 inhabitants and the lethality was 43.3. Regarding the analysis of the daily trend of rates in the period from March 2020 to June 2021, both mortality and incidence increased. Conclusion: it was found that the behavior of the trend of rates in the first wave was increasing in the incidence of confirmed cases and the lethality decreasing, and in the second wave, the mortality and lethality rates were increasing.

scholarly journals Stroke incidence and case fatality: a 9-year prospective population-based study in an elderly population of Bagheria, Italy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valentina Arnao ◽  
Giuseppe Salemi ◽  
Salvatore Scondotto ◽  
Nicola Casuccio ◽  
Marianna Riolo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Elderly Population ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
World Population ◽  
Italian Population ◽  
Population Based Study ◽  
Stroke Incidence ◽  
Epidemiological Surveys

Abstract Background The incidence of stroke in high-income countries has been on the decline; however, few epidemiological surveys have been conducted in recent years to specifically estimate the incidence along with outcome of stroke, in Italy. This study aimed to examine the incidence and case fatality rates of stroke in an elderly Italian population. Methods A cohort of 2200 people > 65 years was randomly stratified from the total elderly population of Bagheria, Italy. A 9-year prospective population-based study was performed (19,800 person/years). Results We identified 112 first-ever strokes, 53 females and 59 males: 82 (73.1%) ischemic, 13(11.6%) intracerebral haemorrhages, 6 (5.35%) subarachnoid haemorrhages, while 11(9.8%) were classified as undetermined strokes. The crude overall annual incidence was 5.65 per 1000 (95%CI: 4.61 to 6.70) for first-ever stroke. The overall crude incidence rates were 4.74 per 1000 (5.08 for males and 4.46 for females) for ischemic stroke, 0.65 (0.99 for males and 0.37 for females) for intracerebral haemorrhage, and 0.03 for subarachnoid haemorrhage. The incidence rate for first-ever stroke was 5.4 per 1000 (95% CI: 5.36 to 5.45) after adjustment for the 2015 World population and 5.56 (95% CI: 5.52 to 5.61), compared to the 2015 European population. Overall case fatality rates for first-ever stroke was 8.19% at 28 days and 24.1% at 1 year. Conclusion Our study shows that in the elderly population investigated, stroke incidence and case fatality rates resulted being lower, compared to those from Italian and most European populations. Similar to previous studies, these rates increased linearly with age and were higher in males.

scholarly journals The increase in the risk of severity and fatality rate of covid-19 in southern Brazil after the emergence of the Variant of Concern (VOC) SARS-CoV-2 P.1 was greater among young adults without pre-existing risk conditions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
André Ricardo Ribas Freitas ◽  
Daniele Rocha Queiróz Lemos ◽  
Otto Albuquerque Beckedorff ◽  
Luciano Pamplona de Góes Cavalcanti ◽  
Andre M Siqueira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The State ◽  
Epidemiological Surveillance ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
New Variant ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Second Wave

ABSTRACTBackgroundThe SARS-CoV-2 P.1 variant has been considered as “variant of concern (VOC)” since the end of 2020 when it was firstly identified in the Brazilian state of Amazonas and from there spread to other regions of Brazil. This variant was associated with an increase in transmissibility and worsening of the epidemiological situation in the places where it was detected. The aim of this study was to analyze the severity profile of covid-19 cases in the Rio Grande do Sul state, southern region of Brazil, before and after the emergence of the P.1 variant, considering also the context of the hospitals overload and the collapse of health services.MethodsWe analyzed data from the Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance Information System, SIVEP-Gripe (Sistema de Informação de Vigilância Epidemiológica da Gripe) and compare two epidemiological periods: the “first wave” comprised by cases occurred during November and December 2020 (EW 45 to 53) and the “second wave” with cases occurred in February 2021 (EW 5 to 8), considering that in this month there was a predominance of the new variant P.1. We calculated the proportion of severe forms among the total cases of covid-19, the case fatality rates (CFR) and hospital case fatality rate (hCFR) over both waves time set using the date of onset of symptoms as a reference. We analyzed separately the patients without pre-existing conditions of risk, by age and sex. For comparison between periods, we calculated the Risk Ratio (RR) with their respective 95% confidence intervals and the p-values.FindingsWe observed that in the second wave there were an increase in the proportion of severe cases and covid-19 deaths among younger age groups and patients without pre-existing conditions of risk. The proportion of people under the age of 60 among the cases that evolved to death raised from 18% (670 deaths) in November and December (1st wave) to 28% (1370 deaths) in February (2nd wave). A higher proportion of patients without pre-existing risk conditions was also observed among those who evolved to death due to covid-19 in the second wave (22%, 1,077 deaths) than in the first one (13%, 489 deaths). The CFR for covid-19 increased overall and in different age groups, in both sexes. The increase occurred in a greatest intensity in the population between 20 and 59 years old and among patients without pre-existing risk conditions. Female 20 to 39 years old, with no pre-existing risk conditions, were at risk of death 5.65 times higher in February (95%CI = 2.9 - 11.03; p <0.0001) and in the age group of 40 and 59 years old, this risk was 7.7 times higher (95%CI = 5.01-11.83; p <0.0001) comparing with November-December.InterpretationOur findings showed an increase in the proportion of young people and people without previous illnesses among severe cases and deaths in the state of RS after the identification of the local transmission of variant P.1 in the state. There was also an increase in the proportion of severe cases and in the CFR, in almost all subgroups analyzed, this increase was heterogeneous in different age groups and sex. As far as we know, these are the first evidences that the P.1 variant can disproportionately increase the risk of severity and deaths among population without pre-existing diseases, suggesting related changes in pathogenicity and virulence profiles. New studies still need to be done to confirm and deepen these findings.

scholarly journals Dengue in Araraquara, state of São Paulo: epidemiology, climate and Aedes aegypti infestation

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 ◽  
pp. 18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aline Chimello Ferreira ◽  
Francisco Chiaravalloti Neto ◽  
Adriano Mondini
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Age Group ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Statistical Measures ◽  
Group Sex ◽  
The City ◽  
Age And Sex

OBJECTIVE: To describe the epidemiology of dengue in a medium-sized city in the state of São Paulo. METHODS: Data, such as circulating serotypes, severe cases and deaths, age group, sex, among others, were obtained on reported and confirmed dengue cases in Araraquara, state of São Paulo, between 1991 and 2015. Climatic and infestation data were also analyzed. These variables were evaluated descriptively, using statistical measures such as frequencies, averages, minimum and maximum. Dengue incidence rates were calculated according to month, year, age and sex, and time series of dengue cases, infestation, and climatic variables. RESULTS: Approximately 16,500 cases of dengue fever were reported between 1991 and 2015. The highest number of reports was recorded in 2015 (7,811 cases). In general, the age group with the highest number of reports is between 20 and 59 years old. The highest incidences, generally between March and May, occurred after the increase in rainfall and infestation in January. CONCLUSIONS: Increased levels of infestation due to rainfall are reflected in incidence rates of the disease. It is fundamental to know the epidemiology of dengue in medium-sized cities. Such information can be extended to diseases such as Zika and Chikungunya, which are transmitted by the same vector and were reported in the city. The intensification of surveillance efforts in periods before epidemics could be a strategy to be considered to control the viral spread.

scholarly journals The cholera risk assessment in Kano State, Nigeria: A historical review, mapping of hotspots and evaluation of contextual factors

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. e0009046
Author(s):  
Moise Chi Ngwa ◽  
Chikwe Ihekweazu ◽  
Tochi Okwor ◽  
Sebastian Yennan ◽  
Nanpring Williams ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Relative Risk ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
Task Force ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Historical Review ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Space Time ◽  
The State ◽  
Annual Incidence

Nigeria is endemic for cholera since 1970, and Kano State report outbreaks annually with high case fatality ratios ranging from 4.98%/2010 to 5.10%/2018 over the last decade. However, interventions focused on cholera prevention and control have been hampered by a lack of understanding of hotspot Local Government Areas (LGAs) that trigger and sustain yearly outbreaks. The goal of this study was to identify and categorize cholera hotspots in Kano State to inform a national plan for disease control and elimination in the State. We obtained LGA level confirmed and suspected cholera data from 2010 to 2019 from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) and Kano State Ministry of Health. Data on inland waterbodies and population numbers were obtained from online sources and NCDC, respectively. Clusters (hotspots) were identified using SaTScan through a retrospective analysis of the data for the ten-year period using a Poisson discrete space-time scan statistic. We also used a method newly proposed by the Global Task Force on Cholera Control (GTFCC) to identify and rank hotspots based on two epidemiological indicators including mean annual incidence per 100 000 population of reported cases and the persistence of cholera for the study period. In the ten-year period, 16,461 cholera cases were reported with a case fatality ratio of 3.32% and a mean annual incidence rate of 13.4 cases per 100 000 population. Between 2010 and 2019, the most severe cholera exacerbations occurred in 2014 and 2018 with annual incidence rates of 58.01 and 21.52 cases per 100 000 inhabitants, respectively. Compared to 2017, reported cases and deaths increased by 214.56% and 406.67% in 2018. The geographic distribution of outbreaks revealed considerable spatial heterogeneity with the widest in 2014. Space-time clustering analysis identified 18 out of 44 LGAs as high risk for cholera (hotspots) involving both urban and rural LGAs. Cholera clustered around water bodies, and the relative risk of having cholera inside the hotspot LGA were 1.02 to 3.30 times higher than elsewhere in the State. A total of 4,894,144 inhabitants were in these hotspots LGAs. Of these, six LGAs with a total population of 1.665 million had a relative risk greater than 2 compared to the state as a whole. The SaTScan (statistical) and GTFCC methods were in agreement in hotspots identification. This study identified cholera hotspots LGAs in Kano State from 2010–2019. Hotspots appeared in both urban and rural settings. Focusing control strategies on these hotspots will facilitate control and eliminate cholera from the State.

scholarly journals Spatial dynamics of AIDS incidence in the elderly in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 1997-2011

2015 ◽  
Vol 31 (8) ◽  
pp. 1721-1731
Author(s):  
Nádia Cristina Pinheiro Rodrigues ◽  
Andrea Sobral de Almeida ◽  
José Ueleres Braga ◽  
Gisele O'Dwyer ◽  
Paulo Cavalcante Apratto Junior ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rio De Janeiro ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Spatial Dynamics ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
The State ◽  
Analysis Techniques ◽  
Aids Epidemic ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Trends ◽  
The Relationship

The dynamics of the spread of the AIDS epidemic ranges according to the characteristics of each geographical region in different population groups. The aim of this study was to evaluate spatial and temporal trends of the AIDS epidemic among the elderly in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. A retrospective study using spatial analysis techniques was conducted among AIDS cases (≥ 60 years) diagnosed from 1997-2011. The Poisson regression model was used to assess the relationship between year of diagnosis and incidence of AIDS, adjusted by sex. The AIDS epidemic began in the south coast of the state and gradually reached neighboring cities. The highest rates were found in regions around Rio de Janeiro and Niterói cities. The highest smoothed rates of the period were observed in Niterói in 2002-2006: 11.87/100,000 (men) and 8,5/100,000 (women). AIDS incidence rates among the elderly have stabilized in recent decades. To prevent HIV from spreading further among the general population, greater attention should be given to the older population.

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