scholarly journals Forward Projections of Turkey's Beekeeping

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yusuf Ziya Tengiz ◽  
Zehra Meliha Tengiz
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Agricultural Activities ◽  
Honey Production ◽  
The World ◽  
Ancient Times ◽  
Effective Use ◽  
Production Resources

Beekeeping is one of the most common agricultural activities in the world. In addition to the world and human life, it is very important in the pollination and the efficiency of the plants. Beekeeping activities have been done since ancient times as the tradition of Anatolian people. In Turkey grows 75% of the honey plants species determined in the world. This provides a variety of honey in different aroma and flavors. Turkey with 7 796 666 beehives is in 3rd rank, with 114 471 tons of honey production is in 2nd rank and with 4 488 tons of beeswax production in 2017 is in 4th rank in the world bee products have an important role. It is important to determine future trends in developing appropriate policies for our country, which is one of the leading countries in beekeeping activities. The main aims of this study are to forecast honey and beeswax product in Turkey for 2019-2025. Arima model, which is one of the time series analysis, was used in this study. According to the results, it is expected that honey production will increase in these years. However, it is expected the increase in the production of beeswax until 2021. After 2021 year is expected to decrease a little. In our country which has great potential for beekeeping, it will be able to take place among the countries which have a significant influence in foreign trade with the effective use of production resources in the realization of activities.

scholarly journals Thol tamil samugathil Palli Sol Keatal

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (S-1) ◽  
pp. 183-187
Author(s):  
Kalaiselvan P
Keyword(s):  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Beliefs And Practices ◽  
The Public ◽  
The People ◽  
The World ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Ancient Times

Different beliefs and practices are found in human life from birth to death. These beliefs are created by the people and are followed and protected by the mother’s community. Man has been living with nature since ancient times. Beliefs appeared in natural human life. Hope can be traced back to ancient Tamils and still prevails in Tamil Nadu today. The hope of seeing the omen in it is found all over the world. Proverbs show that people have faith in omens. Our ancestors wrote the book 'Gauli Shastri' because the lizard omen is very important in our society. The word lizard played a major role in Tamil life during the Sangam period. It is possible to know that people have lived by the benefit of the lizard. There is hope from the public that the sound of the lizard will predict what will happen next. The purpose of this article is to illustrate the lizard word that has been around for a long time in folklore.

scholarly journals PSYCHOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF COLOR AND COLOR THERAPY

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (3SE) ◽  
pp. 1-2
Author(s):  
Ajay Kumar Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Human Life ◽  
Psychological Impact ◽  
Psychological Effects ◽  
Blue Color ◽  
Red Color ◽  
The World ◽  
New Energy ◽  
Ancient Times ◽  
Black Color ◽  
The Ideal

Many opinions about colors are popular, but most of the artists nowadays follow the opinion of Aust Wald, according to their opinion, the main colors are yellow, red, blue and green, these are four and the ideal color is eight. The first four colors are called primordial (vatpahdans) colors and the second four i.e. purple, sky, orange and dhani are called second colors (Aambavadakantal). Apart from this, there are three colors and black, white, khaki (oval), these are called neutral colors (chamanjatans), they are mostly used to decrease and increase the color of other colors. The psychological impact of these colors has on human life, which has been considered the origin of colors on this Vasundhara since the birth of creation. Since ancient times, there have been different beliefs in terms of colors, such as red color - passion and revolution, black color - inauspicious, negative, green color - optimism brings happiness, blue color - peace, white color - purity brings reconciliation etc. Through colors on the canvas of paintings, the artist, in his silent language, shapes happiness, pain, agony with his imaginations and transmits his feelings to another. These pictures have many colors, we just have to understand them. There are many colors in nature which awaken the feeling of happiness in our mind and provide new energy. In today's time, imagining a world without colors for a moment is not only difficult. While colors have a special place in life, in the world, whatever we see with our eyes, the effect of color is first visible because many colors are present in the world. रंगों के विषय में अनेक मत प्रचलित है पर आजकल के अधिकांश कलाकार आस्ट वाल्ड के मत को ही मानते है इनके मतानुसार मुख्य रंग पीला, लाल, नीला और हरा ये चार होते है और आदर्श रंग आठ होते है। प्रथम चार रंगों को मौलिक (व्तपहदंस) रंग कहते है और दूसरे चार अर्थात बैगनी, आसमानी, नारंगी और धानी को द्वितीय रंग (ैमबवदकंतल) कहते है। इनके अतिरिक्त तीन रंग और है काला, सफेद, खाकी (ळतंल) इनको तटस्थ रंग (छमनजतंस) कहते है इनका प्रयोग अधिकतर अन्य रंगों की सुषमा (ज्वदम) को घटाने और बढ़ाने में किया जाता है। इन्ही रंगों का मनौवैज्ञानिक प्रभाव मानव जीवन पर पड़ता है जो सृष्टि के जन्म से ही इस वसुन्धरा पर रंगो की उत्पत्ति का प्रार्दुभाव माना गया है। प्राचीनकाल से ही रंगो के संदर्भ में अलग-अलग मान्यतायें रही है जैसे लाल रंग - जोश एवं क्रांति, काला रंग - अशुभ, अनिष्ट, हरा रंग- आशावादिता खुशहाली, नीला रंग - शान्त, सफेद रंग - पवित्रता सुलह आदि का परिचय देता है। रंगो के माध्यम से चित्रों के कैनवास पर कलाकार अपनी मौन भाषा में खुशी, पीड़ा, व्यथा को अपनी कल्पना शक्ति से आकार प्रदान कर अपनी भावनाओं को दूसरे तक पहुंचाता है। इन चित्रों के अनेक रंग रूप होते है, हमें सिर्फ उन्हें समझना पड़ता है। प्रकृति में बहुत से रंग है जो हमारे मन में खुशी की भावना जागृत कर नई उर्जा प्रदान करते है। आज के समय में क्षण भर के लिए बिना रंगों के संसार की कल्पना कठिन ही नही असम्भव है। जहां रंगों का जीवन में विशिष्ट स्थान है वहीं संसार में हम अपनी आंखों से जो कुछ भी देखते है उनमें सबसे पहले रंग का प्रभाव दृष्टिगोचर होता है क्यांेकि सृष्टि में अनेकों रंग विधमान है।

scholarly journals The Comparison between ARIMA and ARFIMA Model to Forecast Kijang Emas (Gold) Prices in Malaysia using MAE, RMSE and MAPE

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 22-33
Author(s):  
Atiqa Nur Azza Mahmad Azan ◽  
Nur Faizatul Auni Mohd Zulkifly Mototo ◽  
Pauline Jin Wee Mah
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Arfima Models ◽  
Gold Market ◽  
Univariate Time Series ◽  
The World ◽  
Arfima Model ◽  
Best Fit

Gold is known as the most valuable commodity in the world because it is a universal currency recognized by every single bank across the globe. Thus, many people were interested in investing gold since gold market was always steadier compared to other investment (Khamis and Awang, 2020). However, the credibility of gold was questionable due to the changes in gold prices caused by a variety of circumstances (Henriksen, 2018). Hence, information on the inflation of gold prices were needed to understand the trend in order to plan for the future in accordance with international gold price standards. The aim of this study was to identify the trend of Kijang Emas monthly average prices in Malaysia from the year 2010 to 2021, to determine the best fit time series model for Kijang Emas prices in Malaysia and using univariate time series models to forecast Kijang Emas prices in Malaysia. The ARIMA and ARFIMA models were used in this study to model and forecast the prices of gold (Kijang Emas) in Malaysia. Each of the actual monthly Kijang Emas prices for 2021 were found to be within the 95% predicted intervals for both the ARIMA and ARFIMA models. The performances for each model were checked by considering the values of MAE, RMSE and MAPE. From the findings, all the MAE, RMSE and MAPE values showed that the ARFIMA model emerged as the better model in forecasting the Kijang Emas prices in Malaysia compared to the ARIMA model.

scholarly journals Time-Series Forecasting and Analysis of COVID-19 Outbreak in Highly Populated Countries

2022 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Arunkumar P. M. ◽  
Lakshmana Kumar Ramasamy ◽  
Amala Jayanthi M.
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Research Area ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The World ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Important Research Area

A novel corona virus, COVID-19 is spreading across different countries in an alarming proportion and it has become a major threat to the existence of human community. With more than eight lakh death count within a very short span of seven months, this deadly virus has affected more than 24 million people across 213 countries and territories around the world. Time-series analysis, modeling and forecasting is an important research area that explores the hidden insights from larger set of time-bound data for arriving better decisions. In this work, data analysis on COVID-19 dataset is performed by comparing the top six populated countries in the world. The data used for the evaluation is taken for a time period from 22nd January 2020 to 23rd August 2020.A novel time-series forecasting approach based on Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is also proposed. The results will help the researchers from medical and scientific community to gauge the trend of the disease spread and improvise containment strategies accordingly.

scholarly journals The origin of scientific activities and science in ancient timesBilimsel faaliyetlerin kökeni ve Eski Çağ’da bilim

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 2453
Author(s):  
Sırrı Tiryaki
Keyword(s):  
Human Life ◽  
Medical Science ◽  
Modern Science ◽  
The State ◽  
English Abstract ◽  
Educational Institutions ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
World Science ◽  
The World ◽  
Ancient Times

The first inventions made by the first humans on earth to survive started the beginning of first scientific activities. The first instruments made of bone and stone are a product of this philosophy. The fact that human beings begin to lead a life based on settled life means the world science develops rapidly. Because the settled life enabled the establishment of villages and cities for world civilization and the commencement of trade. Along with all these things, concepts such as writing, books, literature, library, astronomy, mathematics, chemistry and physics began to enter into human life. The discovery of mining revealed the facts like armed soldiers, armies and states. Along with the concept of the state, scientific activities have become more systematic and more widespread. Because it is known that states supported scientific activities within their borders. For example, the creation of the writing by the Sumerian civilization, the preparation of textbooks, the development of the calendar, the development of medical science in Egypt, the invention of the compass by the Chinese civilization, the opening of the museum in Alexandria in the Hellenistic Age and the starting of the studies about anatomy in this museum, the opening of a three different educational institutions in Rome, were all happening as a result of the encouragement and support of the respective states. In this study, we tried to put forth that all the scientific activities in the Old Era the basis of the modern science as well.Extended English abstract is in the end of PDF (TURKISH) file. ÖzetYeryüzündeki ilk insanların hayata kalabilmek için yaptıkları ilk icatlar aynı zamanda ilk bilimsel faaliyetleri başlamaktadır. Kemik ve taştan yapılan ilk aletler bu felsefenin bir ürünüdür. İnsanoğlunun yerleşik yaşama dayalı bir hayat sürdürmeye başlaması ise dünya biliminin hızla gelişmesi anlamına gelmektedir. Çünkü yerleşik yaşam dünya uygarlığı için köylerin ve kentlerin kurulması ve ticaretin başlaması demekti. Bütün bunların yanı sıra yerleşik yaşamla birlikte yazı, kitap, edebiyat, kütüphane, astronomi, matematik, kimya ve fizik gibi kavramlar insan hayatına girmeye başladı. Madenciliğin keşfi ise silahlı askerler, ordular ve devletler gibi olguları ortaya çıkardı. Devlet kavramıyla birlikte bilimsel faaliyetler daha sistematik hâle geldi ve daha da yaygınlaştı. Çünkü devletlerin kendi sınırları içerisinde bilimsel aktiviteleri teşvikleri söz konusuydu. Örneğin yazının Sümer uygarlığı tarafından icat edilmesi, ders kitaplarının hazırlanması, takvimin geliştirilmesi, Mısır’da tıp biliminin oldukça gelişmesi, pusulanın Çin uygarlığı tarafından icat edilmesi, Helenistik Çağ’da İskenderiye kentinde müzenin açılması ve bu müzede anatomi alanında çalışmaların başlatılması ile Roma’da üç farklı eğitim kurumunun açılması gibi konuların tamamı dönemin söz konusu devletlerinin teşvik ve destekleri sonucunda gerçekleşen olgulardı. Çalışmamızda Eski Çağdaki bütün bu bilimsel faaliyetlerin aynı zamanda modern bilimin temelini oluşturduğunu ortaya koymaya çalıştık.

scholarly journals COVID 19 Pandemic: A Real-time Forecasts & Prediction of Confirmed Cases, Active Cases using the ARIMA model & Public Health in West Bengal, India

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dibash Sarkar ◽  
Moinak Biswas
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Care ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Health Care System ◽  
West Bengal ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Public Health Care ◽  
Public Health Care System ◽  
The World ◽  
Care System

AbstractBackgroundCOVID-19 is an emerging infectious disease which has been declared a Pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11 2020. This pandemic has spread over the world in more than 200 countries. India is also adversely affected by this pandemic, and there are no signs of slowing down of the virus in coming time. The absence of a vaccine for COVID-19 is making the situation worse for the already overstretched Indian public health care system. As economic burden makes it increasingly difficult for our country to continue imposing control measures, it is vital for states like West Bengal to make predictions using time series forecasting for the upcoming cases, test kits, health care and estimated the requirement of Quarantine centers, isolation beds, ICU beds and ventilators for COVID-19 patients.ObjectiveThis study is forecasting the confirmed and active cases for COVID-19 until August, using time series ARIMA model & Public Health in West Bengal, India.MethodsWe used ARIMA model, and Auto ARIMA model for forecasting confirmed and active cases till the end of August month using time series data of COVID-19 cases in West Bengal, India from March 1, 2020, to June 4, 2020.ResultsWe are expecting that West Bengal will have around 62279 ± 5000 Cases by the end of August based on our forecasts. Meanwhile Maharashtra, Punjab, Gujarat and Delhi (UT) will be the most affected states, having the highest number of active and confirmed cases at the end of August.Discussion and ConclusionThis forecasts show a very crucial situation for West Bengal in coming days and, the actual numbers can go higher than our estimates of confirmed case as Lockdown 5.0 & Unlock 1.0 will be implemented from 1st June 2020 in India, West Bengal will be observing a partial lift of the lockdown and in that case, there will be a surge in the number of daily confirmed and active cases. The requirement of Health care sector needs to be further improved isolation beds, ICUs and ventilators will also be needed to increase in that scenario. Inter State & Intra State Movement restrictions are lifted. Hence, Migrants returning to their homes due to loss of livelihood and income in the lockdown period may lead to a rise in the number of cases, which could not be accounted for in our projections. We suggest more of Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model in the health sector to accommodate COVID-19 patients adequately and reduce the burden of the already overstretched Indian public health care system, which will directly or indirectly affect the States in the time of crisis.

scholarly journals Real-Time Forecasting of COVID-19 prevalence in India using ARIMA Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (10) ◽  
pp. 78-83
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
The World ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Short Term Prediction

Corona virus disease (COVID -19) has changed the world completely due to unavailability of its exact treatment. It has affected 215 countries in the world in which India is no exception where COVID patients are increasing exponentially since 15th of Feb. The objective of paper is to develop a model which can predict daily new cases in India. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models have been used for time series prediction. The daily data of new COVID-19 cases act as an exogenous variable in this framework. The daily data cover the sample period of 15th February, 2020 to 24th May, 2020. The time variable under study is a non-stationary series as 𝒚𝒕 is regressed with 𝒚𝒕−𝟏 and the coefficient is 1. The time series have clearly increasing trend. Results obtained revealed that the ARIMA model has a strong potential for short-term prediction. In PACF graph. Lag 1 and Lag 13 is significant. Regressed values implies Lag 1 and Lag 13 is significant in predicting the current values. The model predicted maximum COVID-19 cases in India at around 8000 during 5thJune to 20th June period. As per the model, the number of new cases shall start decreasing after 20th June in India only. The results will help governments to make necessary arrangements as per the estimated cases. The limitation of this model is that it is unable to predict jerks on either lower or upper side of daily new cases. So, in case of jerks re-estimation will be required.

Time-series forecasting and analysis of COVID-19 outbreak in highly populated countries- A data-driven approach

2022 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 0-0
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Research Area ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The World ◽  
Data Driven Approach ◽  
Important Research Area

A novel corona virus, COVID-19 is spreading across different countries in an alarming proportion and it has become a major threat to the existence of human community. With more than eight lakh death count within a very short span of seven months, this deadly virus has affected more than 24 million people across 213 countries and territories around the world. Time-series analysis, modeling and forecasting is an important research area that explores the hidden insights from larger set of time-bound data for arriving better decisions. In this work, data analysis on COVID-19 dataset is performed by comparing the top six populated countries in the world. The data used for the evaluation is taken for a time period from 22nd January 2020 to 23rd August 2020.A novel time-series forecasting approach based on Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is also proposed. The results will help the researchers from medical and scientific community to gauge the trend of the disease spread and improvise containment strategies accordingly.

Embroidery as an aesthetic constituent of the garment

Servis plus ◽  
10.12737/5542 ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 89-93
Author(s):  
Людмила Ефимова ◽  
Lyudmila Efimova
Keyword(s):  
Filial Piety ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Cultural Development ◽  
World Outlook ◽  
The World ◽  
Ancient Times

The aesthetically beautiful promotes the generation and development of morals, which is demonstrated by the art of embroidery. Dating back into the ancient times, the traditions and practice of embroidery have been consistently developed and passed from master to apprentice. The author regards elements of embroidery as symbols created as a result of the philosophical and aesthetic interpretation of the world. According to the author, towel embroidery has reflected folk world outlook, thoughts and customs connected with fertility and filial piety. Beauty as a symbol originating from the spiritual reveals itself in the embroidery ornaments, which identify human life and art with eternity. Embroidery resembles nature, as neither tolerates vacuum and is always rich in aesthetics and sense. Embroidery does not only reflect the historical and cultural development of people but is its active and direct participant.

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