scholarly journals FORECASTING EMERGENCIES AT HYDRAULIC STRUCTURES

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 82-89
Author(s):  
E.V. Muravyeva ◽  
◽  
E.V. Arefieva ◽  
D.O. Kopytov ◽  
A.I. Shakirova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Degree Of Approximation ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Hydraulic Structures ◽  
Environmental Disaster ◽  
Actual Problem ◽  
Relevant Today ◽  
Structure Changes ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Republic

The article deals with the actual problem of emergencies at hydraulic structures. Since time immemorial, man has continuously developed various methods and techniques to take advantage of the benefits of water resources, as well as to protect himself from the ravages of water. Thus, on the territory of the Republic of Tatarstan, a large number of hydraulic structures were erected, which are classified as hydrodynamic hazardous facilities. Accidents at these facilities are sources of man-made emergencies. A number of hydraulic structures on the territory have been in operation without reconstruction for more than 70 years, and most of them are in disrepair. The problem of ensuring the safety of hydraulic structures remains not fully understood and relevant today. As a rule, basically all hydraulic structures are located within or above settlements and are objects of increased risk, since the destruction of dams can lead to an environmental disaster. Also, incomplete destruction of the dam, when the safe operation of the structure is no longer possible, can lead to serious economic losses as a result of the cessation of energy production, hydraulic regulation and water collection in the reservoir. Therefore, careful monitoring is required to identify any possible emergencies. One of the solutions in this situation is the use of various methods for predicting emergencies at hydraulic structures. In this regard, in the work, the authors adapted a mathematical model based on Markov chains, which is distinguished by the efficiency of calculations and a high degree of approximation to statistical data. This model makes it possible to predict the state of hydraulic structures when the data on the water level and the volume of seepage in the hydraulic structure changes. Based on the adapted model, the results of forecasting the water level for real hydraulic structures were obtained.

scholarly journals Forecast of the development of an emergency at hydraulic structures of the Republic of Tatarstan

2021 ◽  
Vol 937 (3) ◽  
pp. 032020
Author(s):  
A I Shakirova ◽  
A V Kochergin ◽  
O R Sitnikov ◽  
L N Gorina
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Degree Of Approximation ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Hydraulic Structures ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Relevant Today ◽  
Structure Changes ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Republic ◽  
High Degree

Abstract At present, a large number of hydraulic structures have been erected on the territory of the Republic of Tatarstan, which are classified as hydrodynamic hazardous facilities. Accidents at these facilities are sources of man-made emergencies. A number of hydraulic structures on the territory have been in operation without reconstruction for more than 70 years. The problem of ensuring the safety of hydraulic structures remains not fully understood and relevant today. Basically all hydraulic structures are located within or above settlements and are objects of increased risk. The consequences of a catastrophic flood can be aggravated by accidents at potentially dangerous facilities falling into its zone. The damage caused by such floods can amount to tens of millions of rubles. Incomplete destruction of the dam, when the safe operation of the structure is no longer possible, can lead to serious economic losses as a result of the cessation of energy production, hydraulic regulation and water collection in the reservoir. Careful monitoring is required in order to identify any possible emergencies. One of the solutions in this situation is the use of various methods for predicting emergency situations at hydraulic structures. In this regard, in the work, the authors have adapted a mathematical model based on Markov chains, which is distinguished by the efficiency of calculations and a high degree of approximation to statistical data. This model makes it possible to predict the state of hydraulic structures when the data on the water level and the volume of infiltration in the hydraulic structure changes. Based on the adapted model, the results of forecasting the water level for real hydraulic structures were obtained.

СONTRIBUTION OF POLYMORPHIC VARIATION OF ТP53 AND XRCC1 GENES TO THE SUSCEPTIBILITY TO BREAST CANCER FOR WOMEN OF KYRGYZ AND BELARUSIAN NATIONALITY - A COMPARATIVE STUDY ON MULTIFACTOR DIMENSIONALITY REDUCTION METHODS

2018 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-101
Author(s):  
Nazira Aldasheva ◽  
Vyacheslav Kipen ◽  
Zhaynagul Isakova ◽  
Sergey Melnov ◽  
Raisa Smolyakova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Breast Cancer Risk ◽  
Cancer Risk ◽  
Dimensionality Reduction ◽  
Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction ◽  
Rflp Analysis ◽  
Kyrgyz Republic ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Polymorphic Variants ◽  
The Republic

Basing on Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction method we showed that polymorphic variants p.Q399R (rs25487, XRCC1) and p.P72R (rs1042522, TP53) correlated with increased risk of breast cancer for women from the Kyrgyz Republic and the Republic of Belarus. Cohort for investigation included patients with clinically verified breast cancer: 117 women from the Kyrgyz Republic (nationality - Kyrgyz) and 169 - of the Republic of Belarus (nationality - Belarusians). Group for comparison included (healthy patients without history of cancer pathology at the time of blood sampling) 102 patients from the Kyrgyz Republic, 185 - from the Republic of Belarus. Respectively genotyping of polymorphic variants p.Q399R (rs25487, XRCC1) and p.P72R (rs1042522, TP53) was done by PCR-RFLP. Analysis of the intergenic interactions conducted with MDR 3.0.2 software. Both ethnic groups showed an increase of breast cancer risk in the presence of alleles for SNPs Gln p.Q399R (XRCC1) in the heterozygous state: for the group “Kyrgyz” - OR=2,78 (95% CI=[1,60-4,82]), p=0,001; for the group “Belarusians” - OR=1,85 (95% СІ=[1Д1-2,82], p=0,004. Carriers with combination of alleles Gln (p.Q399R, XRCC1) and Pro (p.P72R, TP53) showed statistically significance increases of breast cancer risk as for patients from the Kyrgyz Republic (OR=2,89, 95% CI=[1,33-6,31]), so as for patients from the Republic of Belarus (OR=3,01, 95% CI=[0,79-11,56]).

Impact of the Ebola epidemic on clinical outcomes of HIV-infected soldiers and their dependents in Sierra Leone

2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 106-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Nagel ◽  
Michael J Blackowicz ◽  
Foday Sahr ◽  
Olamide D Jarrett
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Outcomes ◽  
Sierra Leone ◽  
Repeated Measures ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Hiv Treatment ◽  
Hiv Care ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact

The impact of the 2014–2016 Ebola epidemic in West Africa on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment in Sierra Leone is unknown, especially for groups with higher HIV prevalence such as the military. Using a retrospective study design, clinical outcomes were evaluated prior to and during the epidemic for 264 HIV-infected soldiers of the Republic of Sierra Leone Armed Forces (RSLAF) and their dependents receiving HIV treatment at the primary RSLAF HIV clinic. Medical records were abstracted for baseline clinical data and clinic attendance. Estimated risk of lost to follow-up (LTFU), default, and number of days without antiretroviral therapy (DWA) were calculated using repeated measures general estimating equations adjusted for age and gender. Due to missing data, 262 patients were included in the final analyses. There was higher risk of LTFU throughout the Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone compared to the pre-Ebola baseline, with the largest increase in LTFU risk occurring at the peak of the epidemic (relative risk: 3.22, 95% CI: 2.22–4.67). There was an increased risk of default and DWA during the Ebola epidemic for soldiers but not for their dependents. The risk of LTFU, default, and DWA stabilized once the epidemic was largely resolved but remained elevated compared to the pre-Ebola baseline. Our findings demonstrate the negative and potentially lasting impact of the Ebola epidemic on HIV care in Sierra Leone and highlight the need to develop strategies to minimize disruptions in HIV care with future disease outbreaks.

scholarly journals THE EVALUATION OF EFFECT OF VARIOUS OUTCOMES OF KIDNEY TRANSPLANTATION SURGERY ON ECONOMIC COSTS UNDER TREATMENT OF KIDNEYS CHRONIC DISEASE

2019 ◽  
Vol 62 (2) ◽  
pp. 60-67
Author(s):  
I. A. Lakman ◽  
A. A. Khalikova ◽  
Alexey A. Korzhenevskiy
Keyword(s):  
Kidney Transplantation ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Positive Outcome ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Actual Problem ◽  
Transplantation Surgery ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Heavy Burden ◽  
The Given

The growth of number of patients suffering with chronic kidneys disease became a reverse side of increasing of population life-span during recent decades. The treatment of the given pathology places a heavy burden on state economics. Nowadays, the implementation of kidneys transplantation is the main and only one mode of treatment of this disease permitting both to prolong human life and to significantly ameliorate its quality. The actual problem is the evaluation of economic costs occurring under both successful and unsuccessful outcomes of transplantation. The last one results in returning patient to dialysis procedure. The assessment was applied to direct and indirect expenses of kidney transplantation surgery and post-operational monitoring of patient, including application of dialysis. The expenses of treatment of patient with chronic kidneys disease per one person made annually up to: 1 266 967,88 rubles using dialysis therapy; 1 665 110,19 rubles using transplantation with positive outcome; 2 922 078,07 rubles using transplantation with unsuccessful outcome. Besides, in case of unsuccessful outcome of transplantation total amount of economic losses increased more on 91 343,77 rubles annually at the expense of decreasing of tax levy and increasing of disability compensation.

British security policy and the Sunningdale Agreement: the consequences of using force to combat terrorism in a liberal democracy1

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron Edwards
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Liberal Democracies ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Relevant Today ◽  
Conservative Government ◽  
Democratic Control ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Military

This chapter assesses the nine specific clauses in the Sunningdale Agreement that dealt with the implications for security policy in Northern Ireland. It analyses the consequences that these clauses had in Britain’s war against terrorism, especially as the Conservative government sought to shift the operational focus away from military-led counter-insurgency to a law enforcement-led counter-terrorism strategy. Although the policy of ‘police primacy’ did not emerge as Britain’s preferred option for tackling terrorism until 1975-76, this chapter argues that the seeds were sown by the British Government’s approach to the Sunningdale Agreement and the urgency by which it sought a cross-border arrangement with the Republic of Ireland that would enhance the security forces’ powers of pursuit, arrest and extradition. Indeed, the chapter asks whether the Conservative Party’s return to power in 1979 finally heralded a renewed vision for ‘police primacy’ in a more systematic way than that enacted by the Labour Government between 1974 and 1979. The chapter also highlights the theme of democratic control over the military instrument that would remain constant right up to the signing of the Anglo-Irish Agreement in 1985 and beyond. Indeed, it makes the case - pace Evelegh (1978) and Neumann (2003) – that the British government’s use of the military instrument as an option of last resort is fundamental to our understanding of Britain’s long war on Irish terrorism. This is relevant today, of course, particularly as Britain faces another (albeit much less sustained) armed challenge from dissident republicans. In conclusion, the chapter reflects on how liberal democracies more broadly have responded to the challenge posed by terrorism.

Memories and Expectations of Environmental Disaster: Some Lessons from the Marshall Islands

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Rudiak-Gould
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Marshall Islands ◽  
Environmental Disaster ◽  
The Public ◽  
History Of ◽  
Natural Protection ◽  
Human Habitation ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Public Imagination

The Republic of the Marshall Islands, an archipelago of low-lying coral atolls in eastern Micronesia, is one of four sovereign nations that may be rendered uninhabitable by climate change in the present century. It is not merely sea level rise which is expected to undermine life in these islands, but the synergy of multiple climatic threats (Barnett and Adger 2003). Rising oceans and increasingly frequent typhoons will exacerbate flooding at the same time that the islands’ natural protection—coral reefs—will die from warming waters and ocean acidification. Fresh water resources will be threatened by both droughts and salt contamination from flooding. Although the reaction of the coral atoll environment to climate change is uncertain, it is likely that the islands will no longer be able to support human habitation within fifty or a hundred years (Barnett and Adger 2003: 326)—quite possibly within the lifetimes of many Marshall Islanders living today. In the public imagination, climate change in vulnerable, remote locations is the intrusion of contamination into a formerly pristine environment, of danger into a once secure sanctuary, of change into a once static microcosm (see Lynas 2004: 81, 124). Archaeologists, of course, know better than this: every place has a history of environmental upheavals, and the Marshall Islands is no exception. Researchers agree that coral atolls are among the most precarious and marginal environments that humans have managed to inhabit (Weisler 1999; Yamaguchi et al. 2005: 27), existing only ‘on the margins of sustainability’ (Weisler 2001). The islands in fact only recently formed: while the reefs are tens of millions of years old, the islets that sit on them emerged from the sea only recently, probably around 2000 BP (Weisler et al. 2000: 194; Yamaguchi et al. 2005: 31–2), just before the first people arrived (Yamaguchi et al. 2005: 31–2). The new home that these early seafarers found was not so much an ancient safe haven as a fragile geological experiment—land whose very existence was tenuous long before humans were altering the global climate.

scholarly journals The greatest soda-water lake in the world and how it is influenced by climatic change

1997 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. 1489-1497 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Kadioğlu ◽  
Z. Şen ◽  
E. Batur
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Climatic Change ◽  
Lake Level ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Drainage Basin ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Water Level Fluctuations ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Lake Van ◽  
Eastern Turkey

Abstract. Global warming resulting from increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the local climate changes that follow affect local hydrospheric and biospheric environments. These include lakes that serve surrounding populations as a fresh water resource or provide regional navigation. Although there may well be steady water-quality alterations in the lakes with time, many of these are very much climate-change dependent. During cool and wet periods, there may be water-level rises that may cause economic losses to agriculture and human activities along the lake shores. Such rises become nuisances especially in the case of shoreline settlements and low-lying agricultural land. Lake Van, in eastern Turkey currently faces such problems due to water-level rises. The lake is unique for at least two reasons. First, it is a closed basin with no natural or artificial outlet and second, its waters contain high concentrations of soda which prevent the use of its water as a drinking or agricultural water source. Consequently, the water level fluctuations are entirely dependent on the natural variability of the hydrological cycle and any climatic change affects the drainage basin. In the past, the lake-level fluctuations appear to have been rather systematic and unrepresentable by mathematical equations. Herein, monthly polygonal climate diagrams are constructed to show the relation between lake level and some meteorological variables, as indications of significant and possible climatic changes. This procedure is applied to Lake Van, eastern Turkey, and relevant interpretations are presented.

scholarly journals A New Experimental Investigation for Improving Bridge Management Systems and Road Operation Sustainability

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 31
Author(s):  
Tullio Giuffrè ◽  
Marinella Fossetti ◽  
Alfio Francesco Siciliano
Keyword(s):  
Mechanical Properties ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Field Studies ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Bridge Management ◽  
Service Levels ◽  
The Road ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Bridge Vibrations ◽  
Repair Techniques

Generally, during maintenance operations on bridges and motorway viaducts, the circulation of vehicles is limited or suspended. This causes significant economic losses due to the increase in the costs of transport: delays, increased fuel consumption, higher emissions of pollutants into the atmosphere, increased risk of accidents, etc. However, few studies have analyzed the influence of bridge vibrations on the final mechanical properties of the cement mortar placing during ordinary bridge service. As such, interest is increasing in repair techniques that could achieve high structural performance without reducing road service levels. This paper provides the results obtained through an innovative laboratory trials campaign that evaluated the influence of vibrations on the mechanical properties of high-performance mortar used for repairing bridge decks. The results of 24 cubic and prismatic specimens showed the relationship between the traffic-induced vibrations and the mechanical characteristics of the studied mortar. The findings can be considered as the first methodologic step that is necessary to address further field studies, drawing a detailed link between the repair techniques and transportation user costs. Based on the obtained results, a synthetic bridge management system framework was developed that merges the road function into the structural issue with the goals of increasing the resilience of road networks and optimizing the maintenance resources budget.

3D hydro-morphodynamic models as support tools for obtaining sustainable sediment management strategies of reservoirs

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kilian Mouris ◽  
Leon Saam ◽  
Felix Beckers ◽  
Silke Wieprecht ◽  
Stefan Haun
Keyword(s):  
Sediment Transport ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Sediment Management ◽  
Transport Processes ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Hydraulic Structures ◽  
Suspended Sediment Transport ◽  
Reservoir Sedimentation ◽  
Bottom Outlets

<p>Reservoir sedimentation reduces not only the available storage volume of reservoirs, but may also create other serious problems, such as an increase of bed levels or accumulations of nutrients and contaminants, which affect the environment. An increase in bed levels at the head of the reservoir can reduce flood safety and increase the risk for the surrounding areas. Deposited sediments close to the dam may block hydraulic structures, such as the bottom outlets, or, in case they enter the intake, lead to possible abrasion of plant components (e.g. wear of turbines and pipes).</p><p>Prior to reservoir construction, a pre-evaluation of the sediment yield from the catchment is usually performed by using soil erosion and sediment delivery models. However, the trapping efficiency is often only obtained by empirical approaches, such as Brune’s or Churchill’s curve, which are based on the capacity of the reservoir and the mean annual inflow. This is still common practice, although 3D hydro-morphodynamic models became powerful tools to numerically study sediment transport and reservoir sedimentation prior to the construction of reservoirs as well as during its operation.</p><p>Within this study, a fully 3D hydro-morphodynamic numerical model, based on the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations, is applied to a case study to simulate, on the one hand suspended sediment transport within a hydropower reservoir and on the other hand a reservoir flushing operation as potential management scenario, with the goal to remobilize already deposited sediments and to release these sediments from the reservoir. The modeled reservoir has a total storage capacity of around 14 million m³, whereby the water level can fluctuate due to pumped-storage operation by 40.5 m (difference between the maximum operation level and the operational outlet). At the head is the natural inflow of two creeks into the reservoir and a lateral transition tunnel is located on the orographic right side, which collects several headwater streams from adjacent catchments.</p><p>Simulations are performed for different operation modes of the reservoir. The results clearly show that through active reservoir management (variation of water levels as well as using the momentum of the discharge from the transition tunnel) the sediment motion in the reservoir can be affected to a certain extent. It is for instance possible to almost completely avoid reservoir sedimentation in front of the dam and the hydraulic structures (water intake and bottom outlets) during sediment-laden flows when simultaneously high discharges are provided from the laterally located transition tunnel. The conducted simulation results of reservoir flushing also show that the success of the flushing operation is strongly dependent on the water level. As expected, flushing with full drawdown of the water level is the most efficient method to release sediments.</p><p>Through the detailed results of the 3D hydro-morphodynamic model, it is feasible to receive a deeper knowledge of the ongoing sediment transport processes within the studied reservoir. The gained knowledge can further be used to derive sustainable and efficient management strategies for the sediment management of the reservoir.</p>

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