Simulation-Based Approaches for Ecological Niche Modelling

2016 ◽

pp. 148-170

Author(s):

Anusheema Chakraborty ◽

P K Joshi

Keyword(s):

Ecological Niche ◽

Large Scale ◽

Global Environmental Change ◽

Experimental Models ◽

Ecological Niche Models ◽

Niche Modelling ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Simulation Based ◽

Ecosystem Studies ◽

The Face

Over recent years, many modelling approaches have been used to map and monitor both present and potential distribution of species in the context of ecological niche-based conservation, especially in the face of global environmental change. Using different statistical techniques in a built-in geographic information system (GIS), the development of predictive species distribution models has extensively increased. This chapter introduces a geospatial reference to simulation-based approaches of ecological niche models. The chapter discusses various environmental modeling tools and simulation models available in open source domain used by scientific communities. As an effort of this chapter, we focus on the potential of using such experimental models for large-scale ecosystem modelling studies, highlighting opportunities of research, for a variety of bio-geographical applications. It would serve as a basis for beginners in ecology exploring this field of research, who can further contribute and develop such models to better understand the complex field of ecosystem studies.

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A simulation-based method for selecting calibration areas for ecological niche models and species distribution models

Frontiers of Biogeography ◽

10.21425/f5fbg48814 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 0 (0) ◽

Author(s):

Fernando Machado-Stredel ◽

Marlon E. Cobos ◽

A. Townsend Peterson

Keyword(s):

Species Distribution ◽

Ecological Niche ◽

Species Distribution Models ◽

Ecological Niche Models ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Simulation Based ◽

Niche Models

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Potential geographic distribution of the tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1894) (Diptera: Culicidae) in current and future conditions for Colombia

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases ◽

10.1371/journal.pntd.0008212 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 15 (5) ◽

pp. e0008212

Author(s):

Emmanuel Echeverry-Cárdenas ◽

Carolina López-Castañeda ◽

Juan D. Carvajal-Castro ◽

Oscar Alexander Aguirre-Obando

Keyword(s):

At Risk ◽

Aedes Albopictus ◽

Geographic Distribution ◽

Ecological Niche ◽

Ecological Niche Models ◽

Niche Modelling ◽

Continental Extension ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

Valle Del Cauca ◽

Potential Geographic Distribution

In Colombia, little is known on the distribution of the Asian mosquito Aedes albopictus, main vector of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in Asia and Oceania. Therefore, this work sought to estimate its current and future potential geographic distribution under the Representative Concentration Paths (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios by 2050 and 2070, using ecological niche models. For this, predictions were made in MaxEnt, employing occurrences of A. albopictus from their native area and South America and bioclimatic variables of these places. We found that, from their invasion of Colombia to the most recent years, A. albopictus is present in 47% of the country, in peri-urban (20%), rural (23%), and urban (57%) areas between 0 and 1800 m, with Antioquia and Valle del Cauca being the departments with most of the records. Our ecological niche modelling for the currently suggests that A. albopictus is distributed in 96% of the Colombian continental surface up to 3000 m (p < 0.001) putting at risk at least 48 million of people that could be infected by the arboviruses that this species transmits. Additionally, by 2050 and 2070, under RCP 2.6 scenario, its distribution could cover to nearly 90% of continental extension up to 3100 m (≈55 million of people at risk), while under RCP 8.5 scenario, it could decrease below 60% of continental extension, but expand upward to 3200 m (< 38 million of people at risk). These results suggest that, currently in Colombia, A. albopictus is found throughout the country and climate change could diminish eventually its area of distribution, but increase its altitudinal range. In Colombia, surveillance and vector control programs must focus their attention on this vector to avoid complications in the national public health setting.

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A checklist for maximizing reproducibility of ecological niche models

Nature Ecology & Evolution ◽

10.1038/s41559-019-0972-5 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 3 (10) ◽

pp. 1382-1395 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Xiao Feng ◽

Daniel S. Park ◽

Cassondra Walker ◽

A. Townsend Peterson ◽

Cory Merow ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Ecological Niche ◽

Statistical Modelling ◽

Species Distribution Modelling ◽

Ecological Niche Modelling ◽

Environmental Data ◽

Model Parameters ◽

Sufficient Information ◽

Ecological Niche Models ◽

Niche Modelling ◽

Future Work

Abstract Reporting specific modelling methods and metadata is essential to the reproducibility of ecological studies, yet guidelines rarely exist regarding what information should be noted. Here, we address this issue for ecological niche modelling or species distribution modelling, a rapidly developing toolset in ecology used across many aspects of biodiversity science. Our quantitative review of the recent literature reveals a general lack of sufficient information to fully reproduce the work. Over two-thirds of the examined studies neglected to report the version or access date of the underlying data, and only half reported model parameters. To address this problem, we propose adopting a checklist to guide studies in reporting at least the minimum information necessary for ecological niche modelling reproducibility, offering a straightforward way to balance efficiency and accuracy. We encourage the ecological niche modelling community, as well as journal reviewers and editors, to utilize and further develop this framework to facilitate and improve the reproducibility of future work. The proposed checklist framework is generalizable to other areas of ecology, especially those utilizing biodiversity data, environmental data and statistical modelling, and could also be adopted by a broader array of disciplines.

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Ecological niche models and species distribution models in marine environments: A literature review and spatial analysis of evidence

Ecological Modelling ◽

10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108837 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 415 ◽

pp. 108837 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Sara M. Melo-Merino ◽

Héctor Reyes-Bonilla ◽

Andrés Lira-Noriega

Keyword(s):

Spatial Analysis ◽

Literature Review ◽

Species Distribution ◽

Ecological Niche ◽

Species Distribution Models ◽

Marine Environments ◽

Ecological Niche Models ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Niche Models

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Ecological niche modelling to estimate the distribution of Culicoides, potential vectors of bluetongue virus in Senegal

BMC Ecology ◽

10.1186/s12898-019-0261-9 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 19 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Mamadou Ciss ◽

Biram Biteye ◽

Assane Gueye Fall ◽

Moussa Fall ◽

Marie Cicille Ba Gahn ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Bluetongue Virus ◽

Ecological Niche ◽

Morbidity And Mortality ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

High Morbidity ◽

Ecological Niche Models ◽

Niche Modelling ◽

Boosted Regression Tree ◽

Bioclimatic Variables ◽

Suitable Habitats

Abstract Background Vector-borne diseases are among the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in humans and animals. In the Afrotropical region, some are transmitted by Culicoides, such as Akabane, bluetongue, epizootic haemorrhagic fever and African horse sickness viruses. Bluetongue virus infection has an enormous impact on ruminant production, due to its high morbidity and mortality rates. Methods A nationwide Culicoides trapping campaign was organized at the end of the 2012 rainy season in Senegal. A Maximum Entropy approach (MaxEnt), Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) method and Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) were used to develop a predictive spatial model for the distribution of Culicoides, using bio-climatic variables, livestock densities and altitude. Results The altitude, maximum temperature of the warmest month, precipitation of the warmest quarter, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, temperature seasonality, precipitation of the wettest quarter and livestock density were among the most important factors to predict suitable habitats of Culicoides. Culicoides occurrences were, in most of the cases, positively correlated to precipitation variables and livestock densities; and negatively correlated to the altitude and temperature indices. The Niayes area and the Groundnut basin were the most suitable habitats predicted. Conclusion We present ecological niche models for different Culicoides species, namely C. imicola, C. oxystoma, C. enderleini and C. miombo, potential vectors of bluetongue virus, on a nationwide scale in Senegal. Through our modelling approach, we were able to determine the effect of bioclimatic variables on Culicoides habitats and were able to generate maps for the occurrence of Culicoides species. This information will be helpful in developing risk maps for disease outbreaks.

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Progressively approaching the distribution of Passiflora ischnoclada (Passifloraceae) from a single occurrence record

Check List ◽

10.15560/11.4.1717 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 1717

Author(s):

Renato De Giovanni ◽

Luís Carlos Bernacci

Keyword(s):

Ecological Niche ◽

Potential Distribution ◽

New Records ◽

Field Work ◽

Model Ensemble ◽

Niche Modelling ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Guide Field ◽

Real Distribution ◽

Modelling Techniques

Until recently, Passiflora ischnoclada was only known from a single occurrence record. In this paper we describe how different ecological niche modelling techniques were successively used to generate better potential distribution models for the species and guide field work. At each step, new records were found until the species’ real distribution was approximated based on a model ensemble created with five different algorithms. The estimated distribution is concentrated on a single area of 84 km2 where the species is considered endangered.

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Spatio-temporal effects of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants

Annals of Botany ◽

10.1093/aob/mcz079 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 124 (3) ◽

pp. 389-398 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Ana Paula Araujo Correa-Lima ◽

Isabela Galarda Varassin ◽

Narayani Barve ◽

Victor Pereira Zwiener

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Geographical Distribution ◽

Plant Species ◽

Ecological Niche ◽

Flowering Phenology ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Niche Modelling ◽

Distribution Models ◽

Tropical Plants ◽

Tropical Plant

Abstract Backgrounds and Aims Tropical plant species are already suffering the effects of climate change and projections warn of even greater changes in the following decades. Of particular concern are alterations in flowering phenology, given that it is considered a fitness trait, part of plant species ecological niche, with potential cascade effects in plant–pollinator interactions. The aim of the study was to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of hummingbird-pollinated plants. Methods We implemented ecological niche modelling (ENM) to investigate the potential impacts of different climate change scenarios on the geographical distribution and flowering phenology of 62 hummingbird-pollinated plant species in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Key Results Distribution models indicate future changes in the climatic suitability of their current habitats, suggesting a tendency towards discontinuity, reduction and spatial displacement. Flowering models indicate that climate can influence species phenology in different ways: some species may experience increased flowering suitability whereas others may suffer decreased suitability. Conclusions Our results suggest that hummingbird-pollinated species are prone to changes in their geographical distribution and flowering under different climate scenarios. Such variation may impact the community structure of ecological networks and reproductive success of tropical plants in the near future.

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