Data Mining Methods for Crude Oil Market Analysis and Forecast

2010 ◽  
pp. 184-203 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jue Wang ◽  
Wei Xu ◽  
Xun Zhang ◽  
Yejing Bao ◽  
Ye Pang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Data Mining ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Nonlinear Models ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Governmental Agencies ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
Price Analysis

In this study, two data mining based models are proposed for crude oil price analysis and forecasting, one of which is a hybrid wavelet decomposition and support vector Machine (SVM) model and the other is an OECD petroleum inventory levels based wavelet neural network model (WNN). These models utilize support vector regression (SVR) and artificial neural network (ANN) technique for crude oil prediction and are made comparison with other forecasting models, respectively. Empirical results show that the proposed nonlinear models can improve the performance of oil price forecasting. The findings of this research are useful for private organizations and governmental agencies to take either preventive or corrective actions to reduce the impact of large fluctuation in crude oil markets, and demonstrate that the implications of data mining in public and private sectors and government agencies are promising for analyzing and predicting on the basis of data.

scholarly journals Data Mining Applied for Community Satisfaction Prediction of Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Project (Learn from Palu Disasters)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andri Irfan Rifai
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Data Mining ◽  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Predictive Modeling ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Community Satisfaction ◽  
Reconstruction Project ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Natural disasters can occur anytime and anywhere, especially in areas with high disaster risk. The earthquake that followed the tsunami and liquefaction in Palu, Indonesia, at the end of 2018 had caused tremendous damage. In recent years, rehabilitation and reconstruction projects have been implemented to restore the situation and accelerate economic growth. A study is needed to determine whether the rehabilitation and reconstruction that has been carried out for three years have met community satisfaction. The results of further analysis are expected to predict the level of community satisfaction for the implementation of rehabilitation and other reconstruction. The method used in this paper is predictive modeling using a data mining (DM) approach. Data were collected from all rehabilitation and reconstruction activities in Palu, Sigi, and Donggala with the scope of the earthquake, tsunami, and liquefaction disasters. The analysis results show that the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and the support vector machine (SVM) with a DM approach can develop a community satisfaction prediction model to implement rehabilitation and reconstruction after the earthquake-tsunami and liquefaction disasters.

scholarly journals The Optimal Machine Learning Modeling of Brent Crude Oil Price

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-43
Author(s):  
Chukwudi Paul Obite ◽  
Desmond Chekwube Bartholomew ◽  
Ugochinyere Ihuoma Nwosu ◽  
Gladys Ezenwanyi Esiaba ◽  
Lawrence Chizoba Kiwu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Energy Information Administration ◽  
Close Monitoring ◽  
Crude Oil Price

The price of Brent crude oil is very important to the global economy as it has a huge influence and serves as one of the benchmarks in how other countries and organizations value their crude oil. Few original studies on modeling the Brent crude oil price used predominantly different classical models but the application of machine learning methods in modeling the Brent crude oil price has been grossly understudied. In this study, we identified the optimal MLMD (MLMD) amongst the Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest (RF), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Deep Neural Network (DNN) in modeling the Brent crude oil price and also showed that the optimal MLMD is a better fit to the Brent crude oil price than the classical Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model that has been used in original studies. Daily secondary data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration were used in this study. The results showed that the ANN and DNN models behaved alike and both outperformed the SVR and RF models and are chosen as the optimal MLMDs in modeling the Brent crude oil price. The ANN was also better than the classical ARIMA model that performed very poorly. The ANN and DNN models are therefore suggested for a close monitoring of the Brent crude oil price and also for a pre-knowledge of future Brent crude oil price changes.

Forecasting Crude Oil price using Artificial Neural Network model

2021 ◽  
pp. 321-326
Author(s):  
Sivaprakash J. ◽  
Manu K. S.
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Back Propagation Algorithm ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Propagation Algorithm ◽  
Crude Oil Prices

In the advanced global economy, crude oil is a commodity that plays a major role in every economy. As Crude oil is highly traded commodity it is essential for the investors, analysts, economists to forecast the future spot price of the crude oil appropriately. In the last year the crude oil faced a historic fall during the pandemic and reached all time low, but will this situation last? There was analysis such as fundamental analysis, technical analysis and time series analyses which were carried out for predicting the movement of the oil prices but the accuracy in such prediction is still a question. Thus, it is necessary to identify better methods to forecast the crude oil prices. This study is an empirical study to forecast crude oil prices using the neural networks. This study consists of 13 input variables with one target variable. The data are divided in the ratio 70:30. The 70% data is used for training the network and 30% is used for testing. The feed forward and back propagation algorithm are used to predict the crude oil price. The neural network proved to be efficient in forecasting in the modern era. A simple neural network performs better than the time series models. The study found that back propagation algorithm performs better while predicting the crude oil price. Hence, ANN can be used by the investors, forecasters and for future researchers.

scholarly journals A Novel Design of Classification of Coronary Artery Disease Using Deep Learning and Data Mining Algorithms

2021 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 209-215
Author(s):  
Pratibha Verma ◽  
Vineet Kumar Awasthi ◽  
Sanat Kumar Sahu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Data Mining ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Regression Tree ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Classification And Regression Tree ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Data Mining Algorithms ◽  
R Programming ◽  
Hidden Layer

Data mining techniques are included with Ensemble learning and deep learning for the classification. The methods used for classification are, Single C5.0 Tree (C5.0), Classification and Regression Tree (CART), kernel-based Support Vector Machine (SVM) with linear kernel, ensemble (CART, SVM, C5.0), Neural Network-based Fit single-hidden-layer neural network (NN), Neural Networks with Principal Component Analysis (PCA-NN), deep learning-based H2OBinomialModel-Deeplearning (HBM-DNN) and Enhanced H2OBinomialModel-Deeplearning (EHBM-DNN). In this study, experiments were conducted on pre-processed datasets using R programming and 10-fold cross-validation technique. The findings show that the ensemble model (CART, SVM and C5.0) and EHBM-DNN are more accurate for classification, compared with other methods.

scholarly journals Analisis Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan untuk prediksi volume ekspor dan impor migas di Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
Yuli Andriani ◽  
Hotmalina Silitonga ◽  
Anjar Wanto
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Products ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Directorate General ◽  
Architectural Models ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Analisis pada penelitian penting dilakukan untuk tujuan mengetahui ketepatan dan keakuratan dari penelitian itu sendiri. Begitu juga dalam prediksi volume ekspor dan impor migas di Indonesia. Dilakukannya penelitian ini untuk mengetahui seberapa besar perkembangan ekspor dan impor Indonesia di bidang migas di masa yang akan datang. Penelitian ini menggunakan Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan (JST) atau Artificial Neural Network (ANN) dengan algoritma Backpropagation. Data penelitian ini bersumber dari dokumen kepabeanan Ditjen Bea dan Cukai yaitu Pemberitahuan Ekspor Barang (PEB) dan Pemberitahuan Impor Barang (PIB). Berdasarkan data ini, variabel yang digunakan ada 7, antara lain: Tahun, ekspor minyak mentah, impor minyak mentah, ekspor hasil minyak, impor hasil minyak, ekspor gas dan impor gas. Ada 5 model arsitektur yang digunakan pada penelitian ini, 12-5-1, 12-7-1, 12-8-1, 12-10-1 dan 12-14-1. Dari ke 5 model yang digunakan, yang terbaik adalah 12-5-1 dengan menghasilkan tingkat akurasi 83%, MSE 0,0281641257 dengan tingkat error yang digunakan 0,001-0,05. Sehingga model ini bagus untuk memprediksi volume ekspor dan impor migas di Indonesia, karena akurasianya antara 80% hingga 90%.   Analysis of the research is Imporant used to know precision and accuracy of the research itself. It is also in the prediction of Volume Exports and Impors of Oil and Gas in Indonesia. This research is conducted to find out how much the development of Indonesia's exports and Impors in the field of oil and gas in the future. This research used Artificial Neural Network with Backpropagation algorithm. The data of this research have as a source from custom documents of the Directorate General of Customs and Excise (Declaration Form/PEB and Impor Export Declaration/PIB). Based on this data, there are 7 variables used, among others: Year, Crude oil exports, Crude oil Impors, Exports of oil products, Impored oil products, Gas exports and Gas Impors. There are 5 architectural models used in this study, 12-5-1, 12-7-1, 12-8-1, 12-10-1 and 12-14-1. Of the 5 models has used, the best models is 12-5-1 with an accuracy 83%, MSE 0.0281641257 with error rate 0.001-0.05. So this model is good to predict the Volume of Exports and Impors of Oil and Gas in Indonesia, because its accuracy between 80% to 90%.

Estimating Interval of the Number of Errors for Embedded Software Development Projects

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 40-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kazunori Iwata ◽  
Toyoshiro Nakasima ◽  
Yoshiyuki Anan ◽  
Naohiro Ishii
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Software Development ◽  
Previous Investigation ◽  
Interval Estimation ◽  
Embedded Software ◽  
Point Estimation ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Development Projects ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Previous investigation focused on the prediction of total and errors for embedded software development projects using an artificial neural network (ANN). However, methods using ANNs have reached their improvement limits, since an appropriate value is estimated using what is known as point estimation in statistics. This paper proposes a method for predicting the number of errors for embedded software development projects using interval estimation provided by a support vector machine and ANN.

Analysis of flight delays in aviation system using different classification algorithms and feature selection methods

2019 ◽  
Vol 123 (1267) ◽  
pp. 1415-1436 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. B. A. Anderson ◽  
A. J. Sanjeev Kumar ◽  
A. B. Arockia Christopher
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Feature Selection ◽  
Classification Model ◽  
System Level ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Flight Delays ◽  
Data Mining Techniques ◽  
Mining Methods ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
Aircraft System

ABSTRACTData mining is a process of finding correlations and collecting and analysing a huge amount of data in a database to discover patterns or relationships. Flight delay creates significant problems in the present aviation system. Data mining techniques are desired for analysing the performance in which micro-level causes propagate to make system-level patterns of delay. Analysing flight delays is very difficult – both when looking from a historical view as well as when estimating delays with forecast demand. This paper proposes using Decision Tree (DT), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Naive Bayesian (NB), K-nearest neighbour (KNN) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to study and analyse delays among aircrafts. The performance of different data mining methods is found in the different regions of the updated datasets on these classifiers. Finally, the result shows a significant variation in the performance of different data mining methods and feature selection for this problem. This paper aims to deal with how data mining techniques can be used to understand difficult aircraft system delays in aviation. Our aim is to develop a classification model for studying and reducing delay using different data mining methods and, in this manner, to show that DT has a greater classification accuracy. The different feature selectors are used in this study in order to reduce the number of initial attributes. Our results clearly demonstrate the value of DT for analysing and visualising how system-level effects happen from subsystem-level causes.

Development of Neural Network Models for a Crude Oil Distillation Column

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khairiyah Mohd. Yusof ◽  
Fakhri Karray ◽  
Peter L. Douglas
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Steady State ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Distillation Column ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
Crude Oil Distillation

This paper discusses the development of artificial neural network (ANN) models for a crude oil distillation column. Since the model is developed for real time optimisation (RTO) applications they are steady state, multivariable models. Training and testing data used to develop the models were generated from a reconciled steady-state model simulated in a process simulator. The radial basis function networks (RBFN), a type of feedforward ANN model, were able to model the crude tower very well, with the root mean square error for the prediction of each variable less than 1%. Grouping related output variables in a network model was found to give better predictions than lumping all the variables in a single model; this also allowed the overall complex, multivariable model to be simplified into smaller models that are more manageable. In addition, the RBFN models were also able to satisfactorily perform range and dimensional extrapolation, which is necessary for models that are used in RTO.

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