Intelligence Analysis, Uncertainty, and Risk Analysis

2020 ◽  
pp. 79-91
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Waste Disposal ◽  
Organized Crime ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Toxic Waste ◽  
International Terrorism ◽  
Intelligence Analysis ◽  
National Sovereignty ◽  
Analytical Approaches

Today we live with new threats, for the end of traditional military threats (territory and national sovereignty), the complexity of economic and commercial relations, and because the defense became “global” and implemented through information actions. Examples of new threats are telematic terrorism, international terrorism, religious fanaticism, toxic waste disposal, trafficking of sex, illegal people trafficking, and as an extension, organized crime, eversion, national economic security. Examples of new wars are cultural wars, bacteriological wars, technological wars. The chapter analyzed the concept of threat vs. risk, focusing on possible risks identification criteria and the main analytical approaches for risk management.

Measures of Success for Intelligence Analysis and Products

2020 ◽  
pp. 92-104
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Ethical Issues ◽  
Intelligence Analysis ◽  
Analytical Approaches ◽  
Key Questions

The chapter analyzed the concept of threat vs. risk, focusing on possible risks identification criteria and the main analytical approaches for risk management. It proposes an evaluation of sources as strength or weakness points, and application of cognitive biases in the intelligence analysis, and ethical issues in the intelligence activities such as politicization and secrecy issues. This research intends to put key questions and related criticalities of policy-making school, proposing a conceptual interpretation, possible strategies, and tools to manage, which can attempt to explain how intelligence analysis happens, which typically adopt company productions or cyclic modes of analysis, reducing them to a rational, objective process of steps and stages, especially to govern emergencies.

scholarly journals Transnational Organized Crime in the Era of Globalization

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 431-440
Author(s):  
Nazim Aliyev ◽  
Andrey Borbat
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Human Trafficking ◽  
Organized Crime ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Transnational Crime ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
International Terrorism ◽  
Heterogeneous Structure ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Transnational Organized Crime

The authors analyze versatile manifestations of globalization, the internationalization of the global community development in the modern technogenic conditions, and conclude that these processes lead not only to positive, but, unfortunately, also to negative consequences. Specifically, they focus on the qualitative and quantitative changes in the heterogeneous structure of the so-called transnational organized crime. It is claimed that the most dangerous of them are cybercrimes, drug-related crimes, and human trafficking, which became the object of theoretical and empirical research. The study of international and national materials made it possible to apply a multi-aspect approach to the analysis of the normative basis and statistical data in this sphere. The authors identify the trends and regularities in the development of modern drug-related crimes in the plain of global and local socio-political, economic and legal phenomena; they also identify the priorities for the work of government bodies, including law enforcement agencies, aimed at counteracting these crimes. For cybercrimes, the authors outline the scope of the most dangerous types of illegal activities against national and economic security of states, against the rights and freedoms of their citizens; primarily, they single out the spread of terrorist threats, fraud related to financial and commercial information, personal data, etc. They analyze the clauses of the basic international normative legal act on counteracting cybercrime - the Budapest Convention of the Council of Europe - and pay special attention to the differentiation of crimes while taking into account this type of illegal activity, as well as the enforcement of the Convention in modern conditions. The essence of international terrorism is determined based on the statistical data and their correlation in one or another state; ideologically radical worldviews, separatism, personal ambitions of modern elites are recognized to be key prerequisites for this work. It is claimed that, as a type of transnational crime, global human trafficking is rather dangerous for modern society because of its considerable latency; its manifestations are described, it is also noted that a complex of preventive measures should be implemented at the international and national levels. The authors conclude that transnational crime is an urbanized deeply interconnected phenomenon that does not exist in a pure form and requires highly coordinated large-scale actions from the global and the national communities, as well as adequate professional training of law enforcement employees.

scholarly journals Managing Entrepreneurial Risks

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 9054-9064
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Public Relations ◽  
Risk Sharing ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Main Element ◽  
Documentary Analysis ◽  
Project Risk Analysis

An attempt to study the role of risk management from the perspective of an entrepreneur is made in this article. The main goal of this article is to identify the main patterns that define the characteristics of risk assessment in business as the main element contributing to the achievement of economic security of the organization. Methods of cognition, retrospective and documentary analysis, as well as synthesis, generalization, and systematization were used in the article. The goal is to study methods for assessing entrepreneurial risks. The object of the study is public relations associated with the formation of the risk management institution at the micro level. Various types of economic risks, methods of risk analysis and assessment, as well as risk mitigation strategies are explored in the article. Various risk management methods are used in the modern economic analysis. The most efficient way to reduce risk in conditions of instability of the economic and political situation in Russia is diversification, i.e., risk sharing among several business participants. The specifics of applying the project risk analysis methods in practice are explored.

Design Thinking as a Tool for the Analysis of Project Risks

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 60-77
Author(s):  
E. V. Vasilieva ◽  
T. V. Gaibova
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Design Thinking ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Team Members ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Project Objectives ◽  
Project Risk Analysis

This paper describes the method of project risk analysis based on design thinking and explores the possibility of its application for industrial investment projects. Traditional and suggested approaches to project risk management have been compared. Several risk analysis artifacts have been added to the standard list of artifacts. An iterative procedure for the formation of risk analysis artifacts has been developed, with the purpose of integrating the risk management process into strategic and prompt decision-making during project management. A list of tools at each stage of design thinking for risk management within the framework of real investment projects has been proposed. The suggested technology helps to determine project objectives and content and adapt them in regards to possible; as well as to implement measures aimed at reducing these risks, to increase productivity of the existing risk assessment and risk management tools, to organize effective cooperation between project team members, and to promote accumulation of knowledge about the project during its development and implementation.The authors declare no conflict of interest.

scholarly journals Research for Risk Management of Construction Projects in Taiwan

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 2034
Author(s):  
Chien-Liang Lin ◽  
Bey-Kun Chen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Sustainable Operation ◽  
Management Procedure ◽  
Risk Managers

Risks inevitably exist in all stages of a project. In a construction project, which is highly dynamic and complex, risk factors affect the expected achievement rates of the three main performance goals, namely schedule, cost, and quality. A comprehensive risk management procedure requires three crucial steps: risk confirmation, analysis, and treatment. Risk analysis is the core of risk management. Through structural equation modeling, this study developed a risk analysis model that takes a different perspective and considered the occurrence probability of risk events and the extent to which these events affect a project. The contractor dimension was discovered to exert the strongest influence on an overall project, followed by the subcontractor and design dimensions. This paper proposes a novel construction project risk analysis model, which considers the entire project. The proposed model can be used as a reference for risk managers to make decisions about project risks, so as to achieve the ultimate goal of saving resources and the sustainable operation of the construction project.

The main components of comprehensive support economic security of wholesale enterprises

2021 ◽  
pp. 76-85
Author(s):  
Oleksandr Kuchmieiev
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Research Methods ◽  
Scientific Literature ◽  
External Environment ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Internal Environment ◽  
Wholesale Trade ◽  
Conceptual Apparatus ◽  
Main Components

The aim of the article is to analyze the state of risk management in wholesale enterprises, identify gaps and shortcomings, identify the main components of comprehensive economic security of wholesale enterprises. The methodology of the survey. The following research methods were used to solve the research tasks: analytical for studying and analyzing the scientific literature of the problem, regulations, official websites on the Internet, as well as analysis of functions, methods and technologies of integrated economic security of wholesale enterprises; generalizations for defining the conceptual apparatus of research, formulation of theoretical and practical approaches and conclusions; modeling in order to develop an algorithm for planning work on risk management in wholesale enterprises; observation of the functioning of wholesale trade enter- prises in modern realities, etc. The scientific novelty of the work is to develop an algorithm for planning work on risk management in wholesale enterprises. Conclusion. The article reveals the procedure for studying the destabilizing fac- tors and opportunities of the internal and external environment of the wholesale enterprise, in particular: first it is proposed to determine the factors of external and internal environment that affect the company and will affect it in the stra- tegic period; then gather information about these factors; further evaluate the

Ways to counteract transnational crime in Russia

2020 ◽  
pp. 18-20
Author(s):  
Vasiliy Aleksandrovich Dadalko ◽  
Victoria Aleksandrovna Pobedushkina
Keyword(s):  
International Cooperation ◽  
Organized Crime ◽  
Transnational Crime ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Transnational Organized Crime ◽  
Effective Work ◽  
Foreign Countries ◽  
The World ◽  
Criminal Groups ◽  
Current Mechanism

The article is devoted to possible ways of counteracting transnational organized crime in Russia. A number of proposals have been developed to change and toughen the measures to combat transnational crime in Russia. The current situation of transnational criminal groups in the world is analyzed, and the threat they pose is demonstrated. The importance of strengthening international cooperation for effective work in this direction is noted. The current mechanism of counteraction in foreign countries is considered. The materials of the article can be used as teaching materials for courses related to economic security.

Analysis of risk concept for technical systems using digital twins

2020 ◽  
pp. 99-113
Author(s):  
Анатолий Михайлович Лепихин ◽  
Николай Андреевич Махутов ◽  
Юрий Иванович Шокин ◽  
Андрей Васильевич Юрченко
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Computer Modelling ◽  
Product Lifecycle Management ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Digital Twins ◽  
Real Objects ◽  
Technical Systems ◽  
Active Research

Рассмотрены основные методологические аспекты анализа рисков технических систем с использованием цифровых двойников. Сформулирована концепция рисканализа и предложена базовая модель для ее реализации. Рассмотрены информационные аспекты анализа неопределенностей модели риска. Показано, что технологии цифровых двойников позволяют эффективно сочетать результаты компьютерного моделирования с данными мониторинга реальных объектов, обеспечивая более глубокий анализ объектов, с учетом множества вариантов конструкции, технологий и условий эксплуатации Development of technology and technical systems significantly increases in the volume of information. Traditional methods for designing, manufacturing and operating of technical systems do not allow processing such volumes of information. In this regard, the modern strategy for creating technical systems is based on the use of digital twins. Solving the problems of risk analysis and risk management for technical systems at all stages of the life cycle appears to be one of the promising areas for application of the digital twins technology. Despite of active research, using digital twins in risk analysis currently do not have appropriate methodological justifications and technical solutions in a number of key aspects. In particular, effective reductions of the order of risk models and quantifying uncertainty factors of various types have not been solved. The concept of the risk-informed decision making in product lifecycle management has not been implemented. In fact, there are very few publications on the risk analysis and risk management methodology using digital twins. The article discusses the main methodological aspects of risk analysis of technical systems using digital twins. The concept of risk analysis is formulated and a basic model for its implementation is proposed. The informational aspects of the analysis of uncertainties of the risk model are considered. It is shown that digital twin technologies allow effective combination of the results of computer modelling with the data monitoring of real objects, providing a deeper analysis of objects, taking into account a variety of design options, technologies and operating conditions.

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