Intelligence Analysis Sources

2020 ◽  
pp. 106-122
Keyword(s):  
Information Needs ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Government Agencies ◽  
Context Information ◽  
Intelligence Analysis ◽  
Political Appointees ◽  
Intelligence Collection ◽  
Background Context ◽  
Technical Measures

Intelligence is a tool, a goal, a means of assessing the weaknesses of a state in order to protect its security. Intelligence organizations support the policy process because policymakers and decision-makers constantly need tailored and timely intelligence that will provide background, context, information, and warning, as well as an assessment of the risks, benefits, and the likely outcomes. They avoid strategic unexpected threats, forces, events, and developments that are capable of threatening a nation's existence and provide long-term expertise and stability to political appointees and decision-makers. They maintain the secrecy of information, needs, and methods from disclosure to competitors or counterparts. Government agencies are allowed by law to obtain information through interception and other technical measures. This chapter focuses on the intelligence collection, the different sectors of applications, and methods.

Understanding the Climate-Sensitive Decisions and Information Needs of Freshwater Resource Managers in Hawaii

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 293-308 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa L. Finucane ◽  
Rachel Miller ◽  
L. Kati Corlew ◽  
Victoria W. Keener ◽  
Maxine Burkett ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Information Needs ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Uncertain Information ◽  
Climate Information ◽  
Freshwater Resources ◽  
Freshwater Resource ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Climate Literacy

Abstract Understanding how climate science can be useful in decisions about the management of freshwater resources requires knowledge of decision makers, their climate-sensitive decisions, and the context in which the decisions are being made. A mixed-methods study found that people managing freshwater resources in Hawaii are highly educated and experienced in diverse professions, they perceive climate change as posing a worrisome risk, and they would like to be better informed about how to adapt to climate change. Decision makers with higher climate literacy seem to be more comfortable dealing with uncertain information. Those with lower climate literacy seem to be more trusting of climate information from familiar sources. Freshwater managers in Hawaii make a wide range of climate-sensitive decisions. These decisions can be characterized on several key dimensions including purpose (optimization and evaluation), time horizon (short term and long term), level of information uncertainty (known, uncertain, deeply uncertain, and completely unknown), and information type (quantitative and qualitative). The climate information most relevant to decision makers includes vulnerability assessments incorporating long-term projections about temperature, rainfall distribution, storms, sea level rise, and streamflow changes at an island or statewide scale. The main barriers to using available climate information include insufficient staff time to locate the information and the lack of a clear legal mandate to use the information. Overall, the results suggest that an integrated and systematic approach is needed to determine where and when uncertain climate information is useful and how a larger set of organizational and individual variables affect decision making.

scholarly journals Divergent, plausible, and relevant climate futures for near- and long-term resource planning

2021 ◽  
Vol 167 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. Lawrence ◽  
Amber N. Runyon ◽  
John E. Gross ◽  
Gregor W. Schuurman ◽  
Brian W. Miller
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
National Park ◽  
Information Needs ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Resource Planning ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Projection Approach ◽  
The Individual

AbstractScenario planning has emerged as a widely used planning process for resource management in situations of consequential, irreducible uncertainty. Because it explicitly incorporates uncertainty, scenario planning is regularly employed in climate change adaptation. An early and essential step in developing scenarios is identifying “climate futures”—descriptions of the physical attributes of plausible future climates that could occur at a specific place and time. Divergent climate futures that describe the broadest possible range of plausible conditions support information needs of decision makers, including understanding the spectrum of potential resource responses to climate change, developing strategies robust to that range, avoiding highly consequential surprises, and averting maladaptation. Here, we discuss three approaches for generating climate futures: a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)-ensemble, a quadrant-average, and an individual-projection approach. All are designed to capture relevant uncertainty, but they differ in utility for different applications, complexity, and effort required to implement. Using an application from Big Bend National Park as an example of numerous similar efforts to develop climate futures for National Park Service applications over the past decade, we compare these approaches, focusing on their ability to capture among-projection divergence during early-, mid-, and late-twenty-first century periods to align with near-, mid-, and long-term planning efforts. The quadrant-average approach and especially the individual-projection approach captured a broader range of plausible future conditions than the RCP-ensemble approach, particularly in the near term. Therefore, the individual-projection approach supports decision makers seeking to understand the broadest potential characterization of future conditions. We discuss tradeoffs associated with different climate future approaches and highlight suitable applications.

Research for a sustainable European sugar sector

2010 ◽  
pp. 487-495
Author(s):  
Martin Bruhns ◽  
Peter Glaviè ◽  
Arne Sloth Jensen ◽  
Michael Narodoslawsky ◽  
Giorgio Pezzi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sugar Industry ◽  
Research Priorities ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Sustainable Chemistry ◽  
Technology Platforms ◽  
Research Themes ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Manufacturing Applications ◽  
European Technology

The paper is based on the results of international project entitled “Towards Sustainable Sugar Industry in Europe (TOSSIE)”. 33 research topics of major importance to the sugar sector are listed and briefly described, and compared with research priorities of the European Technology Platforms: “Food for Life”, “Sustainable Chemistry”, “Biofuels”, and “Plant for the Future”. Most topics are compatible with the research themes included in the COOPERATION part of the 7th Framework Program of the EU (2007-2013). However, some topics may require long-term R&D with the time horizon of up to 15 years. The list of topics is divided into four parts: Sugar manufacturing, Applications of biotechnology and biorefinery processing, Sugarbeet breeding and growing, Horizontal issues. Apart from possible use of the list by policy- and decision makers with an interest in sugarbeet sector, the description of each research topic can be used as a starting point in setting up a research project or other R&D activities.

scholarly journals Integrated Impact Assessment for Sustainable Hydropower Planning in the Vjosa Catchment (Greece, Albania)

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 1514
Author(s):  
Rebecca Peters ◽  
Jürgen Berlekamp ◽  
Ana Lucía ◽  
Vittoria Stefani ◽  
Klement Tockner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Northern Greece ◽  
Hydropower Plants ◽  
Hydropower Planning

Mitigating climate change, while human population and economy are growing globally, requires a bold shift to renewable energy sources. Among renewables, hydropower is currently the most economic and efficient technique. However, due to a lack of impact assessments at the catchment scale in the planning process, the construction of hydropower plants (HPP) may have unexpected ecological, socioeconomic, and political ramifications in the short and in the long term. The Vjosa River, draining parts of Northern Greece and Albania, is one of the few predominantly free-flowing rivers left in Europe; at the same time its catchment is identified an important resource for future hydropower development. While current hydropower plants are located along tributaries, planned HPP would highly impact the free-flowing main stem. Taking the Vjosa catchment as a case study, the aim of this study was to develop a transferable impact assessment that ranks potential hydropower sites according to their projected impacts on a catchment scale. Therefore, we integrated established ecological, social, and economic indicators for all HPP planned in the river catchment, while considering their capacity, and developed a ranking method based on impact categories. For the Vjosa catchment, ten hydropower sites were ranked as very harmful to the environment as well as to society. A sensitivity analysis revealed that this ranking is dependent upon the selection of indicators. Small HPP showed higher cumulative impacts than large HPP, when normalized to capacity. This study empowers decision-makers to compare both the ranked impacts and the generated energy of planned dam projects at the catchment scale.

scholarly journals Assessing the Capacity of Adaptive Policy Pathways to Adapt on Time by Mapping Trigger Values to Their Outcomes

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luciano Raso ◽  
Jan Kwakkel ◽  
Jos Timmermans
Keyword(s):  
Monitoring System ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Level Of Confidence ◽  
Adaptive Policy ◽  
Misclassification Errors ◽  
The Future ◽  
Adaptive Action ◽  
The Face

Climate change raises serious concerns for policymakers that want to ensure the success of long-term policies. To guarantee satisfactory decisions in the face of deep uncertainties, adaptive policy pathways might be used. Adaptive policy pathways are designed to take actions according to how the future will actually unfold. In adaptive pathways, a monitoring system collects the evidence required for activating the next adaptive action. This monitoring system is made of signposts and triggers. Signposts are indicators that track the performance of the pathway. When signposts reach pre-specified trigger values, the next action on the pathway is implemented. The effectiveness of the monitoring system is pivotal to the success of adaptive policy pathways, therefore the decision-makers would like to have sufficient confidence about the future capacity to adapt on time. “On time” means activating the next action on a pathway neither so early that it incurs unnecessary costs, nor so late that it incurs avoidable damages. In this paper, we show how mapping the relations between triggers and the probability of misclassification errors inform the level of confidence that a monitoring system for adaptive policy pathways can provide. Specifically, we present the “trigger-probability” mapping and the “trigger-consequences” mappings. The former mapping displays the interplay between trigger values for a given signpost and the level of confidence regarding whether change occurs and adaptation is needed. The latter mapping displays the interplay between trigger values for a given signpost and the consequences of misclassification errors for both adapting the policy or not. In a case study, we illustrate how these mappings can be used to test the effectiveness of a monitoring system, and how they can be integrated into the process of designing an adaptive policy.

ROBUST INTERVAL-BASED MINIMAX-REGRET ANALYSIS METHOD FOR FILTER MANAGEMENT OF FLUID POWER SYSTEM

2013 ◽  
Vol 30 (06) ◽  
pp. 1350021
Author(s):  
SONGLIN NIE ◽  
HUI JI ◽  
YEQING HUANG ◽  
ZHEN HU ◽  
YONGPING LI
Keyword(s):  
Power System ◽  
Optimal Strategies ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Fluid Power ◽  
Maintenance Cost ◽  
Minimax Regret ◽  
Fluid Power System ◽  
System Maintenance ◽  
Management Alternatives

Fluid contamination is one of the main reasons for the wear failure and the related downtime in a hydraulic power system. Filters play an important role in controlling the contamination effectively, increasing the reliability of the system, and maintaining the system economically. Due to the uncertainties of system parameters, the complicated relationship among components, as well as the lack of effective approach, managing filters is becoming one of the biggest challenges for engineers and decision makers. In this study, a robust interval-based minimax-regret analysis (RIMA) method is developed for the filter management in a fluid power system (FPS) under uncertainty. The RIMA method can handle the uncertainties existed in contaminant ingressions of the system and contaminant holding capacity of filters without making assumption on probabilistic distributions for random variables. Through analyzing the system cost of all possible filter management alternatives, an interval element regret matrix can be obtained, which enables decision makers to identify the optimal filter management strategy under uncertainty. The results of a case study indicate that the reasonable solutions generated can help decision makers understand the consequence of short-term and long-term decisions, identify optimal strategies for filter allocation and selection with minimized system-maintenance cost and system-failure risk.

Prostate Cancer Survivorship Care Guideline: American Society of Clinical Oncology Clinical Practice Guideline Endorsement

2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (9) ◽  
pp. 1078-1085 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew J. Resnick ◽  
Christina Lacchetti ◽  
Jonathan Bergman ◽  
Ralph J. Hauke ◽  
Karen E. Hoffman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Clinical Oncology ◽  
Cancer Survivorship ◽  
Information Needs ◽  
Specific Antigen ◽  
Cancer Surveillance ◽  
Survivorship Care ◽  
Care Guidelines ◽  
American Society

Purpose The guideline aims to optimize health and quality of life for the post-treatment prostate cancer survivor by comprehensively addressing components of follow-up care, including health promotion, prostate cancer surveillance, screening for new cancers, long-term and late functional effects of the disease and its treatment, psychosocial issues, and coordination of care between the survivor's primary care physician and prostate cancer specialist. Methods The American Cancer Society (ACS) Prostate Cancer Survivorship Care Guidelines were reviewed for developmental rigor by methodologists. The American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Endorsement Panel reviewed the content and recommendations, offering modifications and/or qualifying statements when deemed necessary. Results The ASCO Endorsement Panel determined that the recommendations from the 2014 ACS Prostate Cancer Survivorship Care Guidelines are clear, thorough, and relevant, despite the limited availability of high-quality evidence to support many of the recommendations. ASCO endorses the ACS Prostate Cancer Survivorship Care Guidelines, with a number of qualifying statements and modifications. Recommendations Assess information needs related to prostate cancer, prostate cancer treatment, adverse effects, and other health concerns and provide or refer survivors to appropriate resources. Measure prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level every 6 to 12 months for the first 5 years and then annually, considering more frequent evaluation in men at high risk for recurrence and in candidates for salvage therapy. Refer survivors with elevated or increasing PSA levels back to their primary treating physician for evaluation and management. Adhere to ACS guidelines for the early detection of cancer. Assess and manage physical and psychosocial effects of prostate cancer and its treatment. Annually assess for the presence of long-term or late effects of prostate cancer and its treatment.

94 Short-term use of therapeutic opioids for children and future opioid use disorders: A systematic review and qualitative study of decision-maker information needs

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. e68-e68
Author(s):  
Malema Ahrari ◽  
Samina Ali ◽  
Michele Dyson ◽  
Lisa Hartling
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Qualitative Study ◽  
Information Needs ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Snowball Sampling ◽  
Opioid Use ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Exposure ◽  
Evidence Summary

Abstract Primary Subject area Emergency Medicine - Paediatric Background Healthcare visits, hospitalizations, and deaths due to opioid-related harms continue to rise for children, despite an overall decline in opioid prescriptions. Decision-makers (including patients and families, clinicians, and policy-makers) require high quality syntheses to inform decisions regarding opioid use. Previous research has found that how systematic review (SR) results are presented may influence uptake by decision-makers. Evidence summaries are appealing to decision-makers as they provide key messages in a succinct manner. Objectives 1) To conduct an SR examining the association between short-term therapeutic exposure to opioids in children and development of opioid use disorder, and 2) To gain perspectives from policy decision-makers on the usability and presentation of results through the form of an evidence summary. Design/Methods We conducted an SR following methods recommended by Cochrane. A medical librarian conducted a comprehensive search and two authors were involved in study selection, data extraction and quality assessment. Studies were eligible if they reported primary research in English or French, and study participants had therapeutic exposure to opioids before age 18 years. Results were described narratively. Decision makers were recruited through purposive and snowball sampling methods, and they participated in interviews to discuss an evidence summary based on the SR. Interviews were transcribed and data were analyzed using content analysis. Ethics approval was obtained for the qualitative study. Results Nineteen American studies involving 47,191,990 participants were included. One study demonstrated that short-term therapeutic exposure may be associated with opioid abuse. Four others showed an association without specifying duration of exposure. Fourteen studies provided information on prevalence or incidence of opioid misuse following therapeutic exposure, median 27.8% [interquartile range 21.4% – 30.7%]; notably, 12 of them did not specify duration of therapeutic exposure. Identified risk factors were contradictory and remain unclear. Decision makers had mixed preferences for the presentation of evidence, depending on their degree of involvement in research versus practice. A majority preferred having methods and key characteristics of studies included in the first page of the evidence summary. They noted that the summary should not be text-heavy and details should be appended. Conclusion A number of studies suggest there is an association between lifetime therapeutic opioid use (unknown duration) and future nonmedical opioid use; however, there is limited evidence to determine whether short-term exposure is specifically associated with these outcomes. Policy and decision-makers prefer a succinct evidence summary for this SR, with study-specific details provided as an appendix. PROSPERO Registration: 122681.

Post–Intensive Care Syndrome in Family Decision Makers of Long-term Acute Care Hospital Patients

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 416-422 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Petrinec
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Acute Care ◽  
Acute Care Hospitals ◽  
Summary Score ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Family Decision ◽  
Post Intensive Care Syndrome

Background Family members of critically ill patients experience indications of post–intensive care syndrome, including anxiety, depression, and posttraumatic stress disorder. Despite increased use of long-term acute care hospitals for critically ill patients, little is known about the impact of long-term hospitalization on patients’ family members. Objectives To examine indications of post–intensive care syndrome, coping strategies, and health-related quality of life among family decision makers during and after patients’ long-term hospitalization. Methods A single-center, prospective, longitudinal descriptive study was undertaken of family decision makers of adult patients admitted to long-term acute care hospitals. Indications of post–intensive care syndrome and coping strategies were measured on the day of hospital admission and 30 and 60 days later. Health-related quality of life was measured by using the Short Form-36, version 2, at admission and 60 days later. Results The sample consisted of 30 family decision makers. On admission, 27% reported moderate to severe anxiety, and 20% reported moderate to severe depression. Among the decision makers, 10% met criteria for a provisional diagnosis of posttraumatic stress disorder. At admission, the mean physical summary score for quality of life was 47.8 (SD, 9.91) and the mean mental summary score was 48.00 (SD, 10.28). No significant changes occurred during the study period. Problem-focused coping was the most frequently used coping strategy at all time points. Conclusion Family decision makers of patients in long-term acute care hospitals have a significant prevalence of indications of post–intensive care syndrome.

scholarly journals Humanitarian Diplomacy

2018 ◽  
pp. 382-392
Author(s):  
Antonio Gazzanti Pugliese di Cotrone
Keyword(s):  
International Law ◽  
International Federation ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Red Cross ◽  
Main Task ◽  
Disadvantaged Groups ◽  
Socially Disadvantaged ◽  
Open Borders

The article describes humanitarian diplomacy that has to break a potential ideological ice between belligerent parties, establish a network of diplomatic connections in a skillful way, and use every opportunity available to support victims of war. An indisputable fact is that the higher the reputation and the stronger the trust to those using humanitarian diplomacy strategies, the better results will be achieved. The combination of diplomacy and humanitarian activities may lead to the emergence of unexpected interactions. The International Federation of Red Cross mentions that the goal humanitarian diplomacy seeks to achieve is the provision of better care for socially disadvantaged groups of society from governments; establishment of closer ties with decision-makers to generate opportunities to influence them; maintenance of a permanent dialogue at both national and international levels; engagement to a discussion of those who work in the field of humanitarian diplomacy; increase in transparency of such discussion; enhancement of the ability to govern all the useful resources; cooperation with other actors pursuing the same humanitarian goals. Humanitarian diplomacy has to direct its actions at all crises and to both governmental and non-governmental entities of international law; take into account that its aim is to open borders and establish humanitarian corridors ensuring the provision of direct assistance to refugees. The main task is to guarantee long-term actions, while avoiding temporary and fragile alternatives. That is the basis for humanitarian diplomacy of the Sovereign Military Order of Malta with all its peculiarities. Keywords: the Sovereign Military Order of Malta, Red Cross, international law, humanitarian diplomacy, crises.

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