Divergent, plausible, and relevant climate futures for near- and long-term resource planning

AbstractScenario planning has emerged as a widely used planning process for resource management in situations of consequential, irreducible uncertainty. Because it explicitly incorporates uncertainty, scenario planning is regularly employed in climate change adaptation. An early and essential step in developing scenarios is identifying “climate futures”—descriptions of the physical attributes of plausible future climates that could occur at a specific place and time. Divergent climate futures that describe the broadest possible range of plausible conditions support information needs of decision makers, including understanding the spectrum of potential resource responses to climate change, developing strategies robust to that range, avoiding highly consequential surprises, and averting maladaptation. Here, we discuss three approaches for generating climate futures: a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)-ensemble, a quadrant-average, and an individual-projection approach. All are designed to capture relevant uncertainty, but they differ in utility for different applications, complexity, and effort required to implement. Using an application from Big Bend National Park as an example of numerous similar efforts to develop climate futures for National Park Service applications over the past decade, we compare these approaches, focusing on their ability to capture among-projection divergence during early-, mid-, and late-twenty-first century periods to align with near-, mid-, and long-term planning efforts. The quadrant-average approach and especially the individual-projection approach captured a broader range of plausible future conditions than the RCP-ensemble approach, particularly in the near term. Therefore, the individual-projection approach supports decision makers seeking to understand the broadest potential characterization of future conditions. We discuss tradeoffs associated with different climate future approaches and highlight suitable applications.

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Understanding the Climate-Sensitive Decisions and Information Needs of Freshwater Resource Managers in Hawaii

Weather Climate and Society ◽

10.1175/wcas-d-12-00039.1 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 5 (4) ◽

pp. 293-308 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Melissa L. Finucane ◽

Rachel Miller ◽

L. Kati Corlew ◽

Victoria W. Keener ◽

Maxine Burkett ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Information Needs ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Uncertain Information ◽

Climate Information ◽

Freshwater Resources ◽

Freshwater Resource ◽

Wide Range ◽

Climate Literacy

Abstract Understanding how climate science can be useful in decisions about the management of freshwater resources requires knowledge of decision makers, their climate-sensitive decisions, and the context in which the decisions are being made. A mixed-methods study found that people managing freshwater resources in Hawaii are highly educated and experienced in diverse professions, they perceive climate change as posing a worrisome risk, and they would like to be better informed about how to adapt to climate change. Decision makers with higher climate literacy seem to be more comfortable dealing with uncertain information. Those with lower climate literacy seem to be more trusting of climate information from familiar sources. Freshwater managers in Hawaii make a wide range of climate-sensitive decisions. These decisions can be characterized on several key dimensions including purpose (optimization and evaluation), time horizon (short term and long term), level of information uncertainty (known, uncertain, deeply uncertain, and completely unknown), and information type (quantitative and qualitative). The climate information most relevant to decision makers includes vulnerability assessments incorporating long-term projections about temperature, rainfall distribution, storms, sea level rise, and streamflow changes at an island or statewide scale. The main barriers to using available climate information include insufficient staff time to locate the information and the lack of a clear legal mandate to use the information. Overall, the results suggest that an integrated and systematic approach is needed to determine where and when uncertain climate information is useful and how a larger set of organizational and individual variables affect decision making.

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Integrated Impact Assessment for Sustainable Hydropower Planning in the Vjosa Catchment (Greece, Albania)

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13031514 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (3) ◽

pp. 1514

Author(s):

Rebecca Peters ◽

Jürgen Berlekamp ◽

Ana Lucía ◽

Vittoria Stefani ◽

Klement Tockner ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Impact Assessment ◽

Planning Process ◽

Renewable Energy Sources ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Catchment Scale ◽

Northern Greece ◽

Hydropower Plants ◽

Hydropower Planning

Mitigating climate change, while human population and economy are growing globally, requires a bold shift to renewable energy sources. Among renewables, hydropower is currently the most economic and efficient technique. However, due to a lack of impact assessments at the catchment scale in the planning process, the construction of hydropower plants (HPP) may have unexpected ecological, socioeconomic, and political ramifications in the short and in the long term. The Vjosa River, draining parts of Northern Greece and Albania, is one of the few predominantly free-flowing rivers left in Europe; at the same time its catchment is identified an important resource for future hydropower development. While current hydropower plants are located along tributaries, planned HPP would highly impact the free-flowing main stem. Taking the Vjosa catchment as a case study, the aim of this study was to develop a transferable impact assessment that ranks potential hydropower sites according to their projected impacts on a catchment scale. Therefore, we integrated established ecological, social, and economic indicators for all HPP planned in the river catchment, while considering their capacity, and developed a ranking method based on impact categories. For the Vjosa catchment, ten hydropower sites were ranked as very harmful to the environment as well as to society. A sensitivity analysis revealed that this ranking is dependent upon the selection of indicators. Small HPP showed higher cumulative impacts than large HPP, when normalized to capacity. This study empowers decision-makers to compare both the ranked impacts and the generated energy of planned dam projects at the catchment scale.

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Heroic leadership illusions in football teams: Rationality, decision making and noise-signal ratio in the firing of football managers

Leadership ◽

10.1177/1742715011420315 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

pp. 169-185 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Jan Ketil Arnulf ◽

John Erik Mathisen ◽

Thorvald Hærem

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Team Leadership ◽

Noise Signal ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Signal Ratio ◽

Management Positions ◽

The Individual ◽

Long Term Performance ◽

Term Performance

Similar to practices in top management positions worldwide, there has been an increasing tendency in recent decades to fire football managers when the team does not perform to the stakeholders' expectations. Previous research has suggested that improvements after change of manager are a statistical artefact. Based on 12 years of data from the Norwegian Premier League, we conduct a natural experiment showing what would have taken place if the manager had not been fired. In this case, the performance might have improved just as well and even quicker. Building on theories in expertise and decision making, we explore the data and argue that decision makers may be fooled by randomness and learn wrong lessons about team leadership. Our analyses support a post-heroic view of team leadership as an emergent, output variable. Exaggerated focus on the individual manager may ruin long-term performance. Practical implications are discussed.

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Incorporating large-scale atmospheric variables in long-term seasonal rainfall forecasting using artificial neural networks: an application to the Ping Basin in Thailand

Hydrology Research ◽

10.2166/nh.2016.212 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 48 (3) ◽

pp. 867-882 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

M. S. Babel ◽

T. A. J. G. Sirisena ◽

N. Singhrattna

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

Large Scale ◽

Resource Planning ◽

Seasonal Rainfall ◽

Annual Rainfall ◽

Rainfall Forecasting ◽

Artificial Neural ◽

Atmospheric Variables

Understanding long-term seasonal or annual or inter-annual rainfall variability and its relationship with large-scale atmospheric variables (LSAVs) is important for water resource planning and management. In this study, rainfall forecasting models using the artificial neural network technique were developed to forecast seasonal rainfall in May–June–July (MJJ), August–September–October (ASO), November–December–January (NDJ), and February–March–April (FMA) and to determine the effects of climate change on seasonal rainfall. LSAVs, temperature, pressure, wind, precipitable water, and relative humidity at different lead times were identified as the significant predictors. To determine the impacts of climate change the predictors obtained from two general circulation models, CSIRO Mk3.6 and MPI-ESM-MR, were used with quantile mapping bias correction. Our results show that the models with the best performance for FMA and MJJ seasons are able to forecast rainfall one month in advance for these seasons and the best models for ASO and NDJ seasons are able do so two months in advance. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, a decreasing trend of MJJ rainfall and an increasing trend of ASO rainfall can be observed from 2011 to 2040. For the dry season, while NDJ rainfall decreases, FMA rainfall increases for the same period of time.

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Merged SAGE II, Ozone_cci and OMPS ozone profile dataset and evaluation of ozone trends in the stratosphere

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-17-12533-2017 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 17 (20) ◽

pp. 12533-12552 ◽

Cited By ~ 25

Author(s):

Viktoria F. Sofieva ◽

Erkki Kyrölä ◽

Marko Laine ◽

Johanna Tamminen ◽

Doug Degenstein ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

European Space Agency ◽

Space Agency ◽

Ozone Profile ◽

Ozone Trends ◽

Stratospheric Cooling ◽

The Individual ◽

Good Agreement

Abstract. In this paper, we present a merged dataset of ozone profiles from several satellite instruments: SAGE II on ERBS, GOMOS, SCIAMACHY and MIPAS on Envisat, OSIRIS on Odin, ACE-FTS on SCISAT, and OMPS on Suomi-NPP. The merged dataset is created in the framework of the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (Ozone_cci) with the aim of analyzing stratospheric ozone trends. For the merged dataset, we used the latest versions of the original ozone datasets. The datasets from the individual instruments have been extensively validated and intercompared; only those datasets which are in good agreement, and do not exhibit significant drifts with respect to collocated ground-based observations and with respect to each other, are used for merging. The long-term SAGE–CCI–OMPS dataset is created by computation and merging of deseasonalized anomalies from individual instruments. The merged SAGE–CCI–OMPS dataset consists of deseasonalized anomalies of ozone in 10° latitude bands from 90° S to 90° N and from 10 to 50 km in steps of 1 km covering the period from October 1984 to July 2016. This newly created dataset is used for evaluating ozone trends in the stratosphere through multiple linear regression. Negative ozone trends in the upper stratosphere are observed before 1997 and positive trends are found after 1997. The upper stratospheric trends are statistically significant at midlatitudes and indicate ozone recovery, as expected from the decrease of stratospheric halogens that started in the middle of the 1990s and stratospheric cooling.

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Merged SAGE II, Ozone_cci and OMPS ozone profiles dataset and evaluation of ozone trends in the stratosphere

10.5194/acp-2017-598 ◽

2017 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Viktoria F. Sofieva ◽

Erkki Kyrölä ◽

Marko Laine ◽

Johanna Tamminen ◽

Doug Degenstein ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Linear Regression ◽

Multiple Linear Regression ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

European Space Agency ◽

Space Agency ◽

Ozone Trends ◽

The Individual ◽

Good Agreement

Abstract. In this paper, we present a merged dataset of ozone profiles from several satellite instruments: SAGE II on ERBS, GOMOS, SCIAMACHY and MIPAS on Envisat, OSIRIS on Odin, ACE-FTS on SCISAT, and OMPS on Suomi-NPP. The merged dataset is created in the framework of European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (Ozone_cci) with the aim of analyzing stratospheric ozone trends. For the merged dataset, we used the latest versions of the original ozone datasets. The datasets from the individual instruments have been extensively validated and inter-compared; only those datasets, which are in good agreement and do not exhibit significant drifts with respect to collocated ground-based observations and with respect to each other, are used for merging. The long-term SAGE-CCI-OMPS dataset is created by computation and merging of deseasonalized anomalies from individual instruments. The merged SAGE-CCI-OMPS dataset consists of deseasonalized anomalies of ozone in 10° latitude bands from 90° S to 90° N and from 10 to 50 km in steps of 1 km covering the period from October 1984 to July 2016. This newly created dataset is used for evaluating ozone trends in the stratosphere through multiple linear regression. Negative ozone trends in the upper stratosphere are observed before 1997 and positive trends are found after 1997. The upper stratospheric trends are statistically significant at mid-latitudes in the upper stratosphere and indicate ozone recovery, as expected from the decrease of stratospheric halogens that started in the middle of the 1990s.

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Ranking Climate Change Adaptation Options

10.20944/preprints202010.0479.v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Laura Sinay ◽

Rodney William (Bill) Carter

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Adaptation ◽

Planning Process ◽

Community Members ◽

Simple Process ◽

Academic Literature ◽

Planning Processes ◽

The Relationship ◽

Adaptation Options

Failure to adapt to climate change is currently considered one of the major threats affecting humanity. Hence, much effort is being put into discussing adaptation approaches. While many adaptation options have been identified, the academic literature does not present a simple process that local councils and community members can use to rank adaptation options. In this context, community members participating on planning processes are presented with many adaptation options, but with no objective approach for selection, which adds challenge to the planning process. With the objective of addressing this issue, this work proposes a simple equation that allows calculating the applicability level of adaptation options. Results can then be plotted into graphs that allow correlating adaptation options and applicability level, which can be easily understood by community members. To develop such equation, this work built on existing sophisticated models from where the indicators used on the equation were identified, as well as the relationship between them. A scale was proposed to help on identifying adaptation options that should be implemented on the short, medium and long term, and options that should only be implemented if the circumstance change.

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The adequacy of institutional frameworks and practice for climate change adaptation decision making

10.26686/wgtn.17012492 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

◽

Judith Helen Lawrence

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Decision Making ◽

Climate Change Adaptation ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Institutional Framework ◽

Climate Change Uncertainty ◽

Change Characteristics ◽

Decision Making Framework ◽

Adaptation Decision

The ability of decision makers to respond to climate change impacts such as sea-level rise and increased flood frequency is challenged by uncertainty about scale, timing, dynamic changes that could lead to regime shifts, and by societal changes. Climate change adaptation decision making needs to be robust and flexible across a range of possible futures, to provide sufficient certainty for investment decisions in the present, without creating undue risks and liabilities for the near and long-term futures. A country’s governance and regulatory institutions set parameters for such decisions. The decision-making challenge is, therefore, a function of the uncertainty and dynamic characteristics of climate change, a country’s institutional framework, and the ways in which actual decision-making practice delivers on the intention of the framework. My research asks if the current decision-making framework, at national and sub-national scales, and practices under it are adequate to enable decision makers to make climate change adaptation decisions that sufficiently address the constraints posed by climate change uncertainty and dynamic change. The focus is on New Zealand’s multi-scale governance and institutional framework with its high level of devolution to the local level, the level assumed as the most appropriate for climate change adaptation decisions. Empirical information was collected from a sample of agencies and actors, at multiple governance scales reflecting the range of geographical characteristics, governance types, organisational functions and actor disciplines. Data were collected using a mix of workshops, interviews and document analyses. The adequacy of the institutional framework and practice was examined using 12 criteria derived from the risk-based concepts of precaution, risk management, adaptive management and transformational change, with respect to; a) understanding and representing uncertainty and dynamic climate change; b) governance and regulations; and c) organisations and actors. The research found that the current decision-making framework has many elements that could, in principle, address uncertainty and dynamic climate change. It enables long-term considerations and emphasises precaution and risk-based decision making. However, adaptive and transformational objectives are largely absent, coordination across multiple levels of government is constrained and timeframes are inconsistent across statutes. Practice shows that climate risk has been entrenched by misrepresentation of climate change characteristics. The resulting ambiguity is compounded at different governance scales, by gaps in the use of national and regional instruments and consequent differences in judicial decisions. Practitioners rely heavily upon static, time-bound treatments of risk, which reinforce unrealistic community expectations of ongoing protections, even as the climate continues to change, and makes it difficult to introduce transformational measures. Some efforts to reflect changing risk were observed but are, at best, transitional measures. Some experimentation was found in local government practice and boundary organisations were used as change-agents. Any potential improvements to both the institutional framework and to practices that could enable flexible and robust adaptation to climate change, would require supporting policies and adaptive governance to leverage them and to sustain decision making through time. This thesis contributes to understanding how uncertainty and dynamic climate change characteristics matter for adaptation decision making by examining both a country-level institutional framework and practice under it. The adequacy analysis offers a new way of identifying institutional barriers, enablers and entry points for change in the context of decision making under conditions of uncertainty and dynamic climate change.

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A foresight study on urban mobility: Singapore in 2040

foresight ◽

10.1108/fs-05-2019-0044 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 22 (1) ◽

pp. 37-52 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Seyed Mehdi Zahraei ◽

Jude Herijadi Kurniawan ◽

Lynette Cheah

Keyword(s):

Driving Forces ◽

Scenario Planning ◽

Urban Mobility ◽

Drivers Of Change ◽

Content Type ◽

The Future ◽

The Individual ◽

City State ◽

Operational Issues

Purpose The transportation system in any city is complex and evolving, shaped by various driving forces and uncertainties in the social, economic, technological, political and environmental situations. Its development and demands upon it cannot be projected by simply extrapolating past and current trends. This paper aims to present a foresight study examining the future of urban mobility, focusing on the dense Asian city-state of Singapore. The objective is to develop scenarios for the future of urban mobility, to facilitate future policy implementation by highlighting long term challenges and opportunities for transportation planning in cities. Design/methodology/approach To create future scenarios, the authors first sought to identify key drivers of change through environmental scanning, expert interviews, focus group discussions and technology scanning. These drivers of change were subsequently used in a scenario planning workshop, organized to co-create alternative future visions for urban mobility 2040 with experts and local stakeholders. Findings Two scenarios emerged, called the Shared World and the Virtual World. For each scenario, the authors described the key features in terms of dominant transport modes for the movements of passengers and freight. Subsequently, the authors discussed possible implications of each scenario to the individual, society, industry and government. Originality/value As cities grow and develop, city and transport planners should not only address daily operational issues but also develop a well-informed, long-term understanding of the evolving mobility system to address challenges that lie beyond the five- or even ten-year horizon. By using scenario planning approach, the authors hope to prepare stakeholders for the uncertain futures that are continuously shaped by the decisions today.

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Thermal Assessment Tool: A climate service to visualize trends of risk events related to cold snaps and heatwaves

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10901 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Blas Lajarín ◽

Nieves Peña ◽

Jorge Paz ◽

Edward P. Morris ◽

Greta C. Vega ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Decision Making ◽

Data Analysis ◽

Local Governments ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Extreme Weather Events ◽

Climate Data ◽

Seasonal Forecasts

The Thermal Assessment Tool has been developed within the framework of a&#160;Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)&#160;contract, titled Climate Change Dashboards for Decision Makers, to provide an interactive and informative dashboard to allow users to visualize the frequency and severity of risk events related to cold snaps and heatwaves. The tool is based on historical, seasonal forecast and long-term projections datasets, available through C3S Climate Data Store (CDS). It reduces the need for repetitive complex climate data analysis, thereby saving time and effort in the decision-making process.Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and humans, and it is foreseeing that will lead to an increase in the number and intensity of extreme weather events, including heatwaves and cold snaps. These may bring temperatures that are significantly warmer or colder than average that may cause impacts such as thermal discomfort, lack of productivity, more energy consumption and/or health problems. To reduce or at least mitigate these impacts added-value information regarding the risks of extreme temperatures is needed to make proper decisions to prepare, protect and prevent the city and citizens.For this purpose, the Thermal Assessment Tool provides a customized dashboard that allows users to visualize heatwaves, cold snaps and thermal comfort based on long-term projections and seasonal forecasts. The tool also presents an interactive map and a time series visualization identifying the magnitude of these three variables. This reduces the need for repetitive complex climate data analysis, thereby saving time and effort in the decision-making processes. Information on the frequency and severity of future extreme temperature events can also assist with planning.The tool showcases how to analyze, process and simplify large volumes of data through different maps and plots that make it easier to understand climate indicators (about the past, present or future). Local governments and other decision-makers, as well as actors in housing development and management, urban planning, and insurance can refer to the tool to complement their usual information systems with additional quality-assured insights that they can act on.Acknowledgments: We would like to thank the C3S for funding this project and the participants in the various workshops mentioned below: Ayuntamiento de Bilbao, Ihobe y la Oficina Espa&#241;ola de Cambio Clim&#225;tico.

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