Assessing the Hydrological Effect of Climate Change on Water Balance of a River Basin in Northern Greece

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 14-33
Author(s):  
Panagiota G. Koukouli ◽  
Pantazis E. Georgiou ◽  
Dimitrios K. Karpouzos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Northern Greece ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

In this work, the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Olynthios River Basin in Northern Greece, were assessed. For this purpose, the climate change scenarios SRES and RCPs were used (SRES A1B, Α2 and RCP4.5, 8.5) - which were taken from two climate models, CGCM3.1/T63 and CanESM2, respectively - for two time periods (2031-2050 and 2081-2100) and for the baseline period (1981-2000). The downscaling was performed using the weather generator ClimGen. The monthly water balance of the Olynthios River Basin was estimated with the use of a conceptual water balance model. Results showed that the annual runoff of the river basin of Olynthios will decrease in response to climate change under all scenarios for both time periods. The results highlight the necessity for adequate adaptation strategies which could improve agricultural water management and reduce the impacts of climate change on agriculture.

Assessing the Hydrological Effect of Climate Change on Water Balance of a River Basin in Northern Greece

2022 ◽  
pp. 817-839
Author(s):  
Panagiota G. Koukouli ◽  
Pantazis E. Georgiou ◽  
Dimitrios K. Karpouzos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Northern Greece ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

In this work, the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Olynthios River Basin in Northern Greece, were assessed. For this purpose, the climate change scenarios SRES and RCPs were used (SRES A1B, Α2 and RCP4.5, 8.5) - which were taken from two climate models, CGCM3.1/T63 and CanESM2, respectively - for two time periods (2031-2050 and 2081-2100) and for the baseline period (1981-2000). The downscaling was performed using the weather generator ClimGen. The monthly water balance of the Olynthios River Basin was estimated with the use of a conceptual water balance model. Results showed that the annual runoff of the river basin of Olynthios will decrease in response to climate change under all scenarios for both time periods. The results highlight the necessity for adequate adaptation strategies which could improve agricultural water management and reduce the impacts of climate change on agriculture.

scholarly journals Uncertainties and nonstationarity in streamflow projections under climate change scenarios and the ensuing adaptation strategies in Subarnarekha river basin, India

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Subarnarekha River ◽  
Subarnarekha River Basin ◽  
Calibration Time

<p>The present study analyses the various uncertainties and nonstationarity in the streamflow projections of Subarnarekha river basin in Eastern India using two widely used hydrological climate models: 1) general circulation model (GCM), and 2) forcing climate change scenarios. These two climate models are used to force the ArcSWAT model. Subsequently this model is calibrated using SUFI-2 optimization technique. The downscaled and bias-corrected data from an ensemble of 10 climate projections with representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios (five each) were used in first model, whereas in second model a total of 63 (7 perturbed precipitations and 9 perturbed temperatures) combinations of hypothetical climate change scenarios were used. The results show very good correlation during monthly calibration time steps and relatively good agreement between the observed and simulated streamflows in daily calibration time steps. The uncertainties are expressed in probabilistic terms using probability density function (PDF) and cumulative distribution function (CDF) as they provide significant information for decision process in climate change adaptation in the river basin. The uncertainties associated with climate models, return periods and streamflow extremes are also analysed in the present work. The RCP 8.5 scenarios seem more appropriate than RCP 4.5 scenarios in quantifying the uncertainties under nonstationarity assumptions. The mean values of water balance components and their percentage variation for both historic and future periods reveal that the water balance components get affected significantly due to climate change in a future period. Consequently, the streamflows are likely to decline in the river basin. The present study also highlights the comprehensive approaches that are being planned to facilitate adaptation to climate change as well as those that are specific to the water resources management in the study region. The findings in this work are useful for overall well-being of people in the study area.</p>

The Effect of Climate Change on River Flow and Snow Cover in the NOPEX Area Simulated by a Simple Water Balance Model

1997 ◽  
Vol 28 (4-5) ◽  
pp. 273-282 ◽  
Author(s):  
C-Y Xu ◽  
Sven Halldin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Water Balance Model ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Average Annual Runoff

Within the next few decades, changes in global temperature and precipitation patterns may appear, especially at high latitudes. A simple monthly water-balance model of the NOPEX basins was developed and used for the purposes of investigating the effects on water availability of changes in climate. Eleven case study catchments were used together with a number of climate change scenarios. The effects of climate change on average annual runoff depended on the ratio of average annual runoff to average annual precipitation, with the greatest sensitivity in the catchments with lowest runoff coefficients. A 20% increase in annual precipitation resulted in an increase in annual runoff ranging from 31% to 51%. The greatest changes in monthly runoff were in winter (from December to March) whereas the smallest changes were found in summer. The time of the highest spring flow changed from April to March. An increase in temperature by 4°C greatly shortened the time of snow cover and the snow accumulation period. The maximum amount of snow during these short winters diminished by 50% for the NOPEX area even with an assumed increase of total precipitation by 20%.

scholarly journals Evaluation of three different regional climate change scenarios for the application of a water balance model in a mesoscale catchment in Northeast Germany

2010 ◽  
Vol 27 ◽  
pp. 57-64 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Wegehenkel ◽  
U. Heinrich ◽  
H. Jochheim ◽  
K. C. Kersebaum ◽  
B. Röber
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Future climate changes might have some impacts on catchment hydrology. An assessment of such impacts on e.g. ground water recharge is required to derive adaptation strategies for future water resources management. The main objective of our study was an analysis of three different regional climate change scenarios for a catchment with an area of 2415 km2 located in the Northeastern German lowlands. These data sets consist of the STAR-scenario with a time period 1951–2055, the WettReg-scenario covering the period 1961–2100 and the grid based REMO-scenario for the time span 1950–2100. All three data sets are based on the SRES scenario A1B of the IPCC. In our analysis, we compared the meteorological data for the control period obtained from the regional climate change scenarios with corresponding data measured at meteorological stations in the catchment. The results of this analysis indicated, that there are high differences between the different regional climate change scenarios regarding the temporal dynamics and the amount of precipitation. In addition, we applied a water balance model using input data obtained from the different climate change scenarios and analyzed the impact of these different input data on the model output groundwater recharge. The results of our study indicated, that these regional climate change scenarios due to the uncertainties in the projections of precipitation show only a limited suitability for hydrologic impact analysis used for the establishment of future concrete water management procedures in their present state.

scholarly journals Drought Assessment and Projection under Climate Change: A Case Study in the Middle and Lower Jinsha River Basin

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhe Yuan ◽  
Jijun Xu ◽  
Jin Chen ◽  
Junjun Huo ◽  
Yangyue Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Jinsha River ◽  
Drought Assessment ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation

To gain an insight into the spatiotemporal variability of drought events and to assess trends under future climate change scenarios are fundamental for making sound mitigation and adaptation strategies. A new drought index, standardized supply-demand water index (SSDI), has been proposed in this research. The SSDI describes drought from the view of water supply-demand relations using a simple water balance model. It was used to assess historical drought events in the middle and lower Jinsha river basin (MLJRB) located in the southwest China and applied to address the drought conditions in the MLJRB under current and future climates. The results showed the following: (1) The average drought area during 2001 to 2011 reached up to 9.9 × 103 km2, accounting for 35.4% of the whole farmland area in the MLJRB, which was about twice as the drought area during 1961 to 2000. The region for greater drought severity with more drought events and longer duration was mainly distributed in Dali, Chuxiong, Kunming, and Yuxi. (2) For the period 2021 to 2050, total drought area was projected to increase by 43.2%. The drought-prone regions could move further towards the northwest of the MLJRB.

scholarly journals Simulated Impacts of Climate Change on Surface Water Yields over the Sondu Basin in Kenya

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (8) ◽  
pp. 161-173
Author(s):  
Stephen Kibe Rwigi ◽  
Jeremiah N. Muthama ◽  
Alfred O. Opere ◽  
Franklin J. Opijah ◽  
Francis N. Gichuki
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Fourth Generation ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Potential impacts of climate change on surface water yields over the Sondu River basin in the western region of Kenya were analysed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model with climate input data obtained from the fourth generation coupled Ocean-Atmosphere European Community Hamburg Model (ECHAM4) using the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) model. Daily time step regional climate scenarios at a spatial grid resolution of 0.44Ëš over the Eastern Africa region were matched to the Sondu river basin and used to calibrate and validate the SWAT model.Analysis of historical and projected rainfall over the basin strongly indicated that the climate of the area will significantly change with wetter climates being experienced by 2030 and beyond. Projected monthly rainfall distribution shows increasing trends in the relatively dry DJF and SON seasons while showing decreasing trends in the relatively wet MAM and JJA seasons. Potential changes in water yields resulting from climate change were computed by comparing simulated yields under climate change scenarios with those simulated under baseline conditions. There was evidence of substantial increases in water yields ranging between 88% and 110% of the baseline yields by 2030 and 2050 respectively. Although simulated water yields are subject to further verification from observed values, this study has provided useful information about potential changes in water yields as a result of climate change over the Sondu River basin and in similar basins in this region.

scholarly journals EVALUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION UNDER RCPs SCENARIOS IN NORTHERN GREECE

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Reference Evapotranspiration ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Environmental Modeling ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Northern Greece ◽  
Agricultural Water Management ◽  
Earth System Models ◽  
Monteith Equation

<p>Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is an important component in water resources, agricultural and environmental modeling, thus its assessment is critical in understanding the impacts of climate change on the sector of agriculture. In this study, the effect of climate change on reference evapotranspiration in Northern Greece, was assessed. For this purpose, the climate change scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 based on four Earth System Models (ESMs) CanESM2, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES and IPSL-CM5A-LR were used for the time periods 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 and for the baseline period (1981-2000). Reference evapotranspiration was estimated with the use of the FAO Penman-Monteith equation. Results showed that mean annual ETo is projected to increase in response to climate change during 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 according to the four ESMs with the greater increase predicted by the end of the 21st century. The increase in ETo is driven mainly by the temperature rise and secondly by the solar radiation increase in the future. The results indicate that the development of adaptation strategies is necessary for the improvement of agricultural water management and the reduction of climate change impacts on agriculture.</p>

scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts on Irrigation Requirements of Preserved Forage for Horses under Mediterranean Conditions

Agronomy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1758
Author(s):  
Daniela Soares ◽  
João Rolim ◽  
Maria João Fradinho ◽  
Teresa Afonso do Paço
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Deficit ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Forage Production ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Adaptation Measure ◽  
Irrigation Requirements ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Pasture and forage production occupies a large part of the utilized agricultural area in Portugal, a country prone to the effects of climate change. This study aims at evaluating the impacts of climate change on forage irrigation requirements and at defining and assessing different adaptation measures. A second objective focuses on evaluating the impacts on water deficit of rainfed forages. This study was performed in a Lusitano horse stud farm located in Azambuja Municipality, Portugal. The climate change impacts on the crop irrigation requirements and crop water deficit were simulated using the soil water balance model, ISAREG. The reference period considered was 1971–2000 and the climate scenarios were the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 (2071–2100). The results show that the adaptation measure aiming at maximum production (several cuts) will increase the irrigation requirements in the different climate change scenarios between 38.4% and 67.1%. The adaptation measure aiming at reducing the water consumption (only one cut) will lead to a reduction in irrigation requirements in the different climate change scenarios, ranging between −31.1% and −64.0%. In rainfed conditions, the water deficit is substantially aggravated in the climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Water Availability–Demand Balance under Climate Change Scenarios in an Overpopulated Region of Mexico

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 1846
Author(s):  
Jessica Bravo-Cadena ◽  
Numa P. Pavón ◽  
Patricia Balvanera ◽  
Gerardo Sánchez-Rojas ◽  
Ramón Razo-Zarate
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Deficit ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Water Footprint ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Climate change scenarios show that water availability could be decreasing in the near future, adding to the increasing problem of the growing water demands in socioeconomic sectors. The aim of this work was to generate a geographically explicit water balance concerning availability vs. demand in an overpopulated region of Mexico. Water balance and water deficit models were made for three periods of time: 1970–2000, and two future periods of time (2041–2060 and 2061–2080). Three global climate models were used in addition to two different climate scenarios from each (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 4.6 and RCP 8.5). Water demand for socioeconomic sectors was calculated through the water footprint. Water availability was 197,644.58 hm3/year, while that the water demand was 59,187 hm3/year. The socioeconomic sectors with the highest demand were domestic services (48%), agriculture (27%), livestock agriculture (20%), and timber production (5%). The highest water availability areas were not the same as those with the highest demand and vice versa. However, 39% of municipalities had a higher water demand than its availability. A significant reduction in water availability was identified, considering an interval of −15% to 40%. This variation depends on climate models, scenarios, and period of time. Areas with overpopulated cities in the region would have higher pressure on water availability. These results could be used in the implementation of public policies by focusing on adaptation strategies to reduce water deficit in the immediate future.

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