Assessing the Hydrological Effect of Climate Change on Water Balance of a River Basin in Northern Greece

2022 ◽  
pp. 817-839
Author(s):  
Panagiota G. Koukouli ◽  
Pantazis E. Georgiou ◽  
Dimitrios K. Karpouzos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Northern Greece ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

In this work, the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Olynthios River Basin in Northern Greece, were assessed. For this purpose, the climate change scenarios SRES and RCPs were used (SRES A1B, Α2 and RCP4.5, 8.5) - which were taken from two climate models, CGCM3.1/T63 and CanESM2, respectively - for two time periods (2031-2050 and 2081-2100) and for the baseline period (1981-2000). The downscaling was performed using the weather generator ClimGen. The monthly water balance of the Olynthios River Basin was estimated with the use of a conceptual water balance model. Results showed that the annual runoff of the river basin of Olynthios will decrease in response to climate change under all scenarios for both time periods. The results highlight the necessity for adequate adaptation strategies which could improve agricultural water management and reduce the impacts of climate change on agriculture.

Assessing the Hydrological Effect of Climate Change on Water Balance of a River Basin in Northern Greece

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 14-33
Author(s):  
Panagiota G. Koukouli ◽  
Pantazis E. Georgiou ◽  
Dimitrios K. Karpouzos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Northern Greece ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

In this work, the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Olynthios River Basin in Northern Greece, were assessed. For this purpose, the climate change scenarios SRES and RCPs were used (SRES A1B, Α2 and RCP4.5, 8.5) - which were taken from two climate models, CGCM3.1/T63 and CanESM2, respectively - for two time periods (2031-2050 and 2081-2100) and for the baseline period (1981-2000). The downscaling was performed using the weather generator ClimGen. The monthly water balance of the Olynthios River Basin was estimated with the use of a conceptual water balance model. Results showed that the annual runoff of the river basin of Olynthios will decrease in response to climate change under all scenarios for both time periods. The results highlight the necessity for adequate adaptation strategies which could improve agricultural water management and reduce the impacts of climate change on agriculture.

The Effect of Climate Change on River Flow and Snow Cover in the NOPEX Area Simulated by a Simple Water Balance Model

1997 ◽  
Vol 28 (4-5) ◽  
pp. 273-282 ◽  
Author(s):  
C-Y Xu ◽  
Sven Halldin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Water Balance Model ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Average Annual Runoff

Within the next few decades, changes in global temperature and precipitation patterns may appear, especially at high latitudes. A simple monthly water-balance model of the NOPEX basins was developed and used for the purposes of investigating the effects on water availability of changes in climate. Eleven case study catchments were used together with a number of climate change scenarios. The effects of climate change on average annual runoff depended on the ratio of average annual runoff to average annual precipitation, with the greatest sensitivity in the catchments with lowest runoff coefficients. A 20% increase in annual precipitation resulted in an increase in annual runoff ranging from 31% to 51%. The greatest changes in monthly runoff were in winter (from December to March) whereas the smallest changes were found in summer. The time of the highest spring flow changed from April to March. An increase in temperature by 4°C greatly shortened the time of snow cover and the snow accumulation period. The maximum amount of snow during these short winters diminished by 50% for the NOPEX area even with an assumed increase of total precipitation by 20%.

scholarly journals Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activity on the Runoff Changes in the Guishui River Basin

Land ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meilin Wang ◽  
Yaqi Shao ◽  
Qun’ou Jiang ◽  
Ling Xiao ◽  
Haiming Yan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Average Annual Runoff ◽  
Runoff Changes ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Guishui River Basin in northwestern Beijing has ecological significance and will be one of the venues of the upcoming Beijing Winter Olympic Games in 2022. However, accelerating climate change and human disturbance in recent decades has posed an increasing challenge to the sustainable use of water in the basin. This study simulated the runoff of the Guishui River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to reveal the spatio-temporal variations of runoff in the basin and the impacts of climate change and human activities on the runoff changes. The results showed that annual runoff from 2004 to 2018 was relatively small, with an uneven intra-annual runoff distribution. The seasonal trends in runoff showed a decreasing trend in spring and winter while an increasing trend in summer and autumn. There was a first increasing and then decreasing trend of average annual runoff depth from northwest to southeast in the study area. In addition, the contributions of climate change and human activities to changes in runoff of the Guishui River Basin were 60% and 40%, respectively, but with opposite effects. The results can contribute to the rational utilization of water resources in the Guishui River Basin.

The associated risks on water resources in Western Macedonia under climate change

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. A. Baltas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Northern Greece ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Domestic Use ◽  
Water District ◽  
Management Issues

This paper assesses the impacts of climate change on water resources in the Western Macedonia water district, located in northern Greece. Some critical water management issues, such as reservoir storage and water supply for agriculture and domestic use, are investigated. A conceptual water balance model was calibrated using monthly historical hydrometeorological data. The proposed model was applied in the entrance of the Polyfyto reservoir in order to estimate runoff values under a transient scenario (UKTR) referring to years 2032 and 2080. The results show that the mean annual runoff, mean winter runoff and summer runoff values, annual maximum and minimum values, as well as monthly maximum and minimum, would be reduced. By using this transient scenario, the risk associated with the water supply for power production, agriculture and domestic use has been evaluated under conditions of altered runoff. Increases of the risks associated with the annual quantities of water supply have been observed.

scholarly journals Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Surface Runoff in the Wuhua River Basin

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 3405 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhengdong Zhang ◽  
Luwen Wan ◽  
Caiwen Dong ◽  
Yichun Xie ◽  
Chuanxun Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Land Use Type ◽  
Cultivated Land ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The impacts of climate change and human activities on the surface runoff in the Wuhua River Basin (hereinafter referred to as the river basin) are explored using the Mann–Kendall trend test, wavelet analysis, and double-mass curve. In this study, all the temperature and precipitation data from two meteorological stations, namely, Wuhua and Longchuan, the measured monthly runoff data in Hezikou Hydrological Station from 1961 to 2013, and the land-cover type data in 1990 and 2013 are used. This study yields valuable results. First, over the past 53 years, the temperature in the river basin rose substantially, without obvious changes in the average annual precipitation. From 1981 to 2013, the annual runoff fluctuated and declined, and this result is essentially in agreement with the time-series characteristics of precipitation. Second, both temperature and precipitation had evidently regular changes on the 28a scale, and the annual runoff changed on the 19a scale. Third, forestland was the predominant land use type in the Wuhua river basin, followed by cultivated land. Major transitions mainly occurred in both land-use types, which were partially transformed into grassland and construction land. From 1990 to 2013, cultivated land was the most active land-use type in the transitions, and construction land was the most stable type. Finally, human activities had always been a decisive factor on the runoff reduction in the river basin, accounting for 85.8%. The runoff in the river basin suffered most heavily from human activities in the 1980s and 1990s, but thereafter, the impact of these activities diminished to a certain extent. This may be because of the implementation of water loss and soil erosion control policies.

scholarly journals Predicting impacts of climate change on evapotranspiration and soil moisture for a site with subhumid climate

2019 ◽  
Vol 67 (4) ◽  
pp. 384-392
Author(s):  
András Herceg ◽  
Reinhard Nolz ◽  
Péter Kalicz ◽  
Zoltán Gribovszki
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Rooting Depth ◽  
Agricultural Field ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Water Storage Capacity

Abstract The current and ongoing climate change over Europe can be characterized by statistically significant warming trend in all seasons. Warming has also an effect on the hydrological cycle through the precipitation intensity. Consequently, the supposed changes in the distribution and amount of precipitation with the continuously increasing temperature may induce a higher rate in water consumption of the plants, thus the adaptation of the plants to the climate change can be critical. The hydrological impact of climate change was studied based on typical environmental conditions of a specific agricultural area in Austria. For this purpose, (1) a monthly step, Thornthwaite-type water balance model was established and (2) the components of the water balance were projected for the 21st century, both (a) with a basic rooting depth condition (present state) and (b) with a (hypothetically) extended rooting depth (in order to evaluate potential adaption strategies of the plants to the warming). To achieve the main objectives, focus was set on calibrating and validating the model using local reference data. A key parameter of the applied model was the water storage capacity of the soil (SOILMAX), represented in terms of a maximum rooting depth. The latter was assessed and modified considering available data of evapotranspiration and soil physical properties. The adapted model was utilized for projections on the basis of four bias corrected Regional Climate Models. An extended rooting depth as a potential adaptation strategy for effects of climate change was also simulated by increasing SOILMAX. The basic simulation results indicated increasing evapotranspiration and soil moisture annual mean values, but decreasing minimum soil moisture for the 21st century. Seasonal examination, however, revealed that a decrease in soil moisture may occur in the growing season towards to the end of the 21st century. The simulations suggest that the vegetation of the chosen agricultural field may successfully adapt to the water scarcity by growing their roots to the possibly maximum.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact on the Hydrologic Regimes and Sediment Yield of Pulangi River Basin (PRB) for Watershed Sustainability

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 9041
Author(s):  
Warda Panondi ◽  
Norihiro Izumi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Global Circulation Models

The impacts of climate change are increasingly threatening the sustainability of ecosystems around the world. The Pulangi River Basin (PRB) in the Philippines is experiencing sedimentation beyond the tolerable amount (11.2 tons/ha/yr) due to land conversion and the effects of climate change. Changes in precipitation and temperature due to climate change are likely to further affect the annual runoff and sediment yield of PRB. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to simulate various scenarios of twelve downscaled climate projections from three Global Circulation Models (GCM) of CMIP5 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 6.0) for 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 timeframes, and the results were compared to a baseline period (1975–2005). This study revealed that the maximum mean annual precipitation is expected to increase by 39.10%, and the minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to increase by 3.04 °C and 3.83 °C, respectively. These observed changes correspond to an increase in runoff (44.58–76.80%) and sediment yield (1.33–26.28%) within the sub-basins. These findings suggest a general increase in the threat of severe flooding and excessive soil loss, leading to severe erosion and reservoir sedimentation throughout the PRB.

scholarly journals Uncertainties and nonstationarity in streamflow projections under climate change scenarios and the ensuing adaptation strategies in Subarnarekha river basin, India

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Subarnarekha River ◽  
Subarnarekha River Basin ◽  
Calibration Time

<p>The present study analyses the various uncertainties and nonstationarity in the streamflow projections of Subarnarekha river basin in Eastern India using two widely used hydrological climate models: 1) general circulation model (GCM), and 2) forcing climate change scenarios. These two climate models are used to force the ArcSWAT model. Subsequently this model is calibrated using SUFI-2 optimization technique. The downscaled and bias-corrected data from an ensemble of 10 climate projections with representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios (five each) were used in first model, whereas in second model a total of 63 (7 perturbed precipitations and 9 perturbed temperatures) combinations of hypothetical climate change scenarios were used. The results show very good correlation during monthly calibration time steps and relatively good agreement between the observed and simulated streamflows in daily calibration time steps. The uncertainties are expressed in probabilistic terms using probability density function (PDF) and cumulative distribution function (CDF) as they provide significant information for decision process in climate change adaptation in the river basin. The uncertainties associated with climate models, return periods and streamflow extremes are also analysed in the present work. The RCP 8.5 scenarios seem more appropriate than RCP 4.5 scenarios in quantifying the uncertainties under nonstationarity assumptions. The mean values of water balance components and their percentage variation for both historic and future periods reveal that the water balance components get affected significantly due to climate change in a future period. Consequently, the streamflows are likely to decline in the river basin. The present study also highlights the comprehensive approaches that are being planned to facilitate adaptation to climate change as well as those that are specific to the water resources management in the study region. The findings in this work are useful for overall well-being of people in the study area.</p>

scholarly journals Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on Soybeans Water Use and Yields in Ogun-Ona River Basin, Nigeria

Agriculture ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 593
Author(s):  
Oludare Sunday Durodola ◽  
Khaldoon A. Mourad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Productivity ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Crop Water ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
The Future ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

African countries such as Nigeria are anticipated to be more susceptible to the impacts of climate change due to reliance on rainfed agriculture. In this regard, the impacts of climate change on crop water requirements (CWR), yields and crop water productivity (CWP) of soybean in the Ogun-Ona River Basin, Nigeria, were evaluated for the baseline period (1986–2015) and future period (2021–2099) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios using AquaCrop Version 6.1. Future climate projections from the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute’s climate models (HadGEM2-ES and RCA4) were used in simulating the future scenarios. The results show that for the baseline period, CWR and yield are increasing while CWP shows a slight increase. For the future period, the CWR is projected to fluctuate and depend on the rainfall pattern. Meanwhile, carbon dioxide fertilization has positive effects on yield and is projected to increase up to 40% under RCP 8.5. The results of this study certainly offer useful information on suitable adaption measures which could be implemented by stakeholders and policymakers to improve soybean productivity in Nigeria.

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