Mathematical Models for Predicting and Managing Water Resources — The Case of China in 2025

2013 ◽  
Vol 448-453 ◽  
pp. 995-1001
Author(s):  
Ning Na Wang ◽  
Qin Lin Zhou

An effective management of water supply is critically significant to a countrys water utilities, and accurate prediction of water supply and demand is of key importance for water supply management. The objectives of this paper are to use Grey System Model (GSM) and Linear Regression Model to forecast the water demand and water supply respectively in China 2025, and then propose a new Optimal Allocation Model (OAM) to generate solution so that analysts and decision makers can gain insight and understanding. The two predictive models take into account four major factors including domestic development, agriculture, industries and eco-environment, calculating a deficit between water demand and water supply in China 2025. Then the OAM, which considers desalinization, irrigation saving and urban recycling, provides a feasible solution to fill the gap and an effectual management of water supply.

Author(s):  
Hang Li ◽  
Xiao-Ning Qu ◽  
Jie Tao ◽  
Chang-Hong Hu ◽  
Qi-Ting Zuo

Abstract China is actively exploring water resources management considering ecological priorities. The Shaying River Basin (Henan Section) serves as an important grain production base in China. However, conflicts for water between humans and the environment are becoming increasingly prominent. The present study analyzed the optimal allocation of water while considering ecological priorities in the Shaying River Basin (Henan Section). The ecological water demand was calculated by the Tennant and the representative station methods; then, based on the predicted water supply and demand in 2030, an optimal allocation model was established, giving priority to meeting ecological objectives while including social and comprehensive economic benefit objectives. After solving the model, the optimal results of three established schemes were obtained. This revealed that scheme 1 and scheme 2 failed to satisfy the water demand of the study area in 2030 by only the current conditions and strengthening water conservation, respectively. Scheme 3 was the best scheme, which could balance the water supply and demand by adding new water supply based on strengthening water conservation and maximizing the benefits. Therefore, the actual water allocation in 2030 is forecast to be 7.514 billion (7.514 × 109) m3. This study could help basin water management departments deal with water use and supply.


2013 ◽  
Vol 295-298 ◽  
pp. 2132-2137
Author(s):  
Xiao Ling Xu ◽  
Xu Feng Liang ◽  
Xiu Juan Liang ◽  
Chang Lai Xiao

Water resources are an important influence factor of land remediation. As support of food production, analysis of water resources supply and demand balance is an important part and technical support of the construction. According to some relevant calculation formulas on water resources assessment, after forecast of water demand and the calculation of water supply, in the project area of the demonstration construction of whole rural land remediation in Baishan City, the average water availability for many years is 8990.1 thousand m3 each year, in which surface water availability is 7210.6 thousand m3, groundwater availability is 1579.4 thousand m3. Water demand is 5552.4 thousand m3 in 2015, in which water demand for life 4165.2 thousand m3; water demand for agricultural irrigation is 1387.2 thousand m3. Water supply is more than water demand; the results show that there is a slight surplus of water resources in the region. The basic supply-demand balance can be achieved in conditions of the design of water supply project in the project area.


2012 ◽  
Vol 518-523 ◽  
pp. 4165-4170
Author(s):  
Xiao Yu Song ◽  
Huai You Li ◽  
Wen Juan Shi

In this paper, based on the fact of water resources shortage, environmental degradation in Chanba River basin, using multi-objective optimization theory, we established the ecology-oriented water resources optimal allocation model and achieved the coupling between water quantity and quality. According to supply and demand of water resources in two levels of years (2020, 2030) and the guaranteed rate 75%, developed model parameters (coefficients), called the optimization function to solve it. The model is applied to Chanba River basin, indicating that the model is reasonable, efficient algorithms The optimal allocation model and the results reflect the concept of sustainable development for ecological, economic efficiency and help to improve water supply reliability, the sustainable use of water resources planning and management provides a basis for decision making.


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jared Ouma okungu

The counties traversed by Yala River Catchment in Kenya have been constrained by acute shortages of water resources because of the declining stream flows, which is occasioned by environmental changes, increasing population and changing land uses. This study applied Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model to evaluate past trends and simulate current demand scenarios for the purposes of planning by authorities in regard to future use. The study used historical data (1970-2015) to assess water supply and demand in the catchment for the period 2016 to 2045 by simulation. Calibration and validation were each performed on 10-year streamflow datasets (1991-2000 and 2001-2010 respectively), drawn from 4 gauging stations. Simulations were then conducted for the scenarios namely: Reference (at 2.8% growth rate), High Growth (3.2%), High Growth (3.5%), and Moderated Growth (2.2%). The categories of water demand evaluated in WEAP included: Domestic-Institutional-Municipal, Agriculture, and Industry uses. In a 5-year time-step, WEAP demonstrated resultant increase in water demand for year 2020 by 7.46% from 2016 at Reference Scenario. WEAP further simulated a gradual increase in water demand during subsequent years. This trend would continue for the rest of the scenarios but with variations occasioned by adjustment of variables in WEAP such as population growth rates, monthly variations, annual activity levels, water use rates, water losses and reuse rates, industrial production units, agricultural acreages, and varied demand sites. In conclusion, there were demonstrated substantial increases in water demands within individual scenarios between 2016 to 2045, but these increases were significantly different scenario-by-scenario. The study recommends that supply and demand measures be employed with the aim of regulating activity levels, losses and consumptions so as to meet demands in case any of the studied scenarios would be applicable.


2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 2179-2198 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gustavo de Souza Groppo ◽  
Marcelo Azevedo Costa ◽  
Marcelo Libânio

Abstract The balance between water supply and demand requires efficient water supply system management techniques. This balance is achieved through operational actions, many of which require the application of forecasting concepts and tools. In this article, recent research on urban water demand forecasting employing artificial intelligence is reviewed, aiming to present the ‘state of the art’ on the subject and provide some guidance regarding methods and models to research and professional sanitation companies. The review covers the models developed using standard statistical techniques, such as linear regression or time-series analysis, or techniques based on Soft Computing. This review shows that the studies are, mostly, focused on the management of the operating systems. There is, therefore, room for long-term forecasts. It is worth noting that there is no global model that surpasses all the methods for all cases, it being necessary to study each region separately, evaluating the strengths of each model or the combination of methods. The use of statistical applications of Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence methodologies has grown considerably in recent years. However, there is still room for improvement with regard to water demand forecasting.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rubén A. Villar-Navascués ◽  
Sandra Ricart ◽  
Antonio M. Rico-Amorós ◽  
María Hernández-Hernández

<p>Since the middle of the 20th century, urban-tourist development in tourist destinations on the Mediterranean coast has required the creation of complex water supply systems to guarantee a growing water demand. At present, the challenges posed by climate change around the management of water resources requires the implementation of adequate water policies and sustainable environmental solutions to foster the adaptation to a foreseeable future characterized by lower availability of conventional water resources and more recurrent and intense droughts. In this context, the link between the scientific field, the stakeholders from the tourism sector, and the decision-makers is vital to favor viable, effective, and consensual solutions that shift the focus from the objective of guarantee tourist water demand to a sustainability scenario from both an environmental, economic, and social point of view. Therefore, it is relevant to question whether there is a large gap between the actions and focus of attention in each of these three areas (scientific, decision-makers, and stakeholders). In other words, does scientific research related to water consumption by the tourism sector adequately respond to the knowledge needs required by stakeholders and decision-makers to achieve the aforementioned sustainability objectives? Through a literature review, this study addresses the main topics, methodologies, and results related to water consumption in hotels on the Spanish Mediterranean coast and their possible impact on the actions made by managers, decision-makers or stakeholders from the tourism sector. To evaluate the science-policy interface, it has also been made a policy review of the main laws, regulations, and plans developed by the different levels of public administration and other private entities in the tourism sector concerning water consumption in hotels, for the Benidorm case study, located in the southeast of Spain. To identify the measures implemented by stakeholders from the tourism sector to reduce water consumption and their vision about the challenges and barriers in this issue, we have taken into account the results of previous projects in which more than twenty surveys and interviews have been carried out to the hotel managers as well as to the Benidorm hotel association (HOSBEC). Likewise, to contextualize the results of these surveys and interviews, we have analyzed the raw water supply data provided by the entity in charge of this service, the Marina Baja Water Consortium, as well as billing and smart meter data from the hotels, provided by the company in charge of the local water supply service, Hidraqua. The results will make possible to highlight the links and differences found between the problems and research approaches raised from the scientific field, the regulations and plans proposed by the public administration and other private decision-makers and the actions and future challenges identified by the tourism sector in the city of Benidorm. The identification of the existing gaps between the three areas (scientists, policy-makers, and stakeholders) will be useful to reshape the agenda of future research and re-think the role of science when responding to managers and decision-makers’ requests on water management and tourism nexus.</p>


2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 1044-1054 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baohui Men ◽  
Zhijian Wu ◽  
Huanlong Liu ◽  
Zehua Hu ◽  
Yangsong Li

Abstract Water shortages and the deterioration of water quality in the natural environment have a negative effect on social development of many countries. Therefore, optimizing the allocation of water resources has become an important research topic in water resources planning and management. An essential step in improving the utilization efficiency of water resources is the prediction of water supply and demand. Because it has a great number of merits, the grey prediction method has been widely used in population prediction and temperature prediction. However, it also has limitations such as low prediction precision since original data seriously fluctuates. This paper aims to handle the sample values by an innovative method utilizing moving-average technique (MA) model and optimizing the background values to make them more typical. Results proved that the prediction accuracy of the traditional model was effectively improved by the proposed method. The proposed model was then applied in the multi-objective planning to establish an optimal water resources allocation model for Beijing in the short-term (2020) planning timeframe, including local water resources, transfer water volumes, and other water supplies. The results indicated that industrial and agricultural water use could be well met, while domestic and environmental water resources may face a shortage.


Author(s):  
S. S. Pravin ◽  
C. Gajendran ◽  
T. Divya

Abstract Renewable groundwater and surface water supplies are insufficient for the existing urban population all over the world as water demand is increasing rapidly. Usage per capita in urban areas transcends 160 liters per day. Climate change is projected to increase water demand even more. Sources of surface water obtained by stormwater runoff can be well used to fulfill this requirement. The main objective of this work is to assess the water supply and demand in the dry condition in the Coimbatore region, Tamil Nadu, India, and to use the Water Evaluation and Planning method to create a model for supply and demand in the future. There are more than three dozen of surface water bodies in and around the metropolitan center. Most sources are heavily encroached upon. By linking stormwater runoff from its respective elevation to the accessible surface water bodies, an additional water supply source can be obtained. By using the Water Evaluation and Planning framework as a guide, models were developed to determine potential needs, compare demand and supply, water usage, lack of water use, and population coverage. The enhanced stormwater drainage system for Coimbatore city was also designed in such a way that the corporation's various roads were connected to the major water bodies. The domestic water demand in the future is predicted to be around 27 Million Cubic Feet(MCFT). Meanwhile, the possible amount of stormwater collection in the selected water bodies is predicted to be 50 Million Cubic Meter (MCM) to 320MCM. Thus, the study concluded that 100% of urban domestic water demand can be met if the urban stormwater is utilized by harvesting and storing in surface water bodies.


2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Cara Beal ◽  
Bernard Dorante ◽  
Patrick Pearson ◽  
Safaa Aldirawi ◽  
Noora Abdallah

Ensuring safe, accessible and acceptable drinking water in remote communities in Australia requires culturally and socially appropriate, technically feasible and economically viable approaches. Arguably, technical and economic factors have been the main focus for remote communities in the water sector, as engineers historically drove the design, planning and construction phases of water supply management options. More recently, increasing focus has been on understanding and integrating local people and place into water supply and demand management. This paper focusses on community-based water demand management in the inner Torres Straits community of Kirirri. The aims and methods are outlined, along with a discussion of the findings which describe the community-preferred demand management tools that were piloted in 25 households between 2018-2019.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Eva Mia Siska Yamamoto ◽  
Takahiro Sayama ◽  
Kaoru Takara

Despite Bali’s dependency on tourism, concerns over the impact of tourism on water scarcity are increasing. The objective of this study is to analyze the clean water demand related to tourism growth and compare them with the available clean water supply. This study suggested that tourism water demand has increased by 20.8 million m3 (295%) from 1988 to 2013. Sixty-eight percent of the increase was concentrated in Badung Regency, where the tourism water demand ratio has increased from 31% to 46%. The study also suggested that rapid population growth has caused an increase in domestic water demand by 48.3 million m3 (48%). This study also shows that the capacity of clean water supply in Bali has increased significantly to meet these demands and the water supply coverage of domestic water demand has increased significantly from 13% in 1988 to 53% in 2013. The water supply coverage of tourism demand varies from year to year with an average of 28% in the study period. The increasing issues over water scarcity despite the improvement in the coverage of domestic water demand suggest further investigations. Yet, despite the large gap between supply and demand in the tourism sector the industry still can have undisrupted clean water throughout the year. This indicates the use of alternative clean water which can be obtained locally such as groundwater. Wise water management through the sharing of scientific data, including in the tourism sector is imperative in solving water scarcity in Bali.  Keywords: clean water demand, water scarcity, Badung Regency


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