A New Long-Term Forecast Method of Wind Power

2014 ◽  
Vol 950 ◽  
pp. 214-220
Author(s):  
Ying Lin
Keyword(s):  
Wind Power ◽  
Sampling Interval ◽  
Neutral Network ◽  
Forecast Method ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Long Time

We forecast wind power in a way combining wavelet neutral network and rolling forecast. At the same time, we build a system of forecast deviation. Then we use some data to test our model, which yields a desirable result. In addition, we are informed that our method can predict wind power correctly in a long time and short sampling interval can lead to a better result than long sampling interval.

Customer Matrix with Different Time Horizons Applied to Electrodischarge Machines

2013 ◽  
Vol 371 ◽  
pp. 220-224
Author(s):  
Daniela Ghiculescu ◽  
Niculae Marinescu ◽  
Daniel Ghiculescu ◽  
Claudiu Pirnău
Keyword(s):  
Time Variable ◽  
Competitive Environment ◽  
Sustainable Competitive Advantage ◽  
Forecast Method ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Perceived Price ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Tree Method

A very effective method to evaluate the products is the Customer Matrix (CM) that uses two coordinates: Perceived Used Value (PUV) and Perceived Price. Our researches extend this basic concept by adding the time variable, creating CM with different time horizons that assures a better understanding of competitive environment. In the first stage, the Customer Matrix is associated with a forecast method. The relevance tree method was used to predict the most probable evolution paths of electrodischarge machines. In the second stage, the CM with different time horizons is constructed, considering products evaluation for short, medium and long time. Finally, a strategy is conceived for an organization that attempts to ameliorate and consolidate its long term position against the main competitors, aiming at obtaining sustainable competitive advantage.

Long-Term Sales Forecast Method Based on Grey Model and Artificial Neural Network

2013 ◽  
Vol 385-386 ◽  
pp. 1726-1729
Author(s):  
Yi Jun Wang ◽  
Hong Ying Tang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Simulation Experiment ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Forecast Method ◽  
Sales Forecast ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
The U.S

Long-term sales forecasting is a problem that has been focused on for a long time. In order to forecast the long-term sales of an industry or an enterprise accurately, a new method based on Grey Model and Artificial Neural Network is proposed in this paper. The effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method is verified by simulation experiment using sales data of the manufacturing and trade industry provided by the U.S. government.

Long-term forecast method for ice disasters on power grids

2018 ◽  
Vol 155 ◽  
pp. 108-119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiazheng Lu ◽  
Jun Guo ◽  
Xunjian Xu ◽  
Li Yang
Keyword(s):  
Power Grids ◽  
Forecast Method ◽  
Term Forecast

scholarly journals Preparing for changes in plant disease due to climate change

2010 ◽  
Vol 45 (Special Issue) ◽  
pp. S3-S10 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Shaw M
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Plant Disease ◽  
Biological Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Long Term Trends

Climate change will change patterns of disease through changes in host distribution and phenology, changes in plant-associated microflora and direct biological effects on rapidly evolving pathogens. Short-term forecast models coupled with weather generated from climate simulations may be a basis for projection; however, they will often fail to capture long-term trends effectively. Verification of predictions is a major difficulty; the most convincing method would be to “back-forecast” observed historical changes. Unfortunately, we lack of empirical data over long time-spans; most of what is known concerns invasions, in which climate is not the main driving factor. In one case where long-term prevalence can be deduced, climate had little to do with change. Resilience to surprises should be the most important policy aim.

Enhancing the power generation of Rhodopseudomonas palustris-based MFC

2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 1261-1268
Author(s):  
Shu Otani ◽  
Dang-Trang Nguyen ◽  
Kozo Taguchi
Keyword(s):  
Activated Carbon ◽  
Rhodopseudomonas Palustris ◽  
Ozone Treatment ◽  
Maximum Power Density ◽  
On Demand ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
Carbon Sheet ◽  
Uv Ozone

In this study, a portable and disposable paper-based microbial fuel cell (MFC) was fabricated. The MFC was powered by Rhodopseudomonas palustris bacteria (R. palustris). An activated carbon sheet-based anode pre-loaded organic matter (starch) and R. palustris was used. By using starch in the anode, R. palustris-loaded on the anode could be preserved for a long time in dry conditions. The MFC could generate electricity on-demand activated by adding water to the anode. The activated carbon sheet anode was treated by UV-ozone treatment to remove impurities and to improve its hydrophilicity before being loaded with R. palustris. The developed MFC could generate the maximum power density of 0.9 μW/cm2 and could be preserved for long-term usage with little performance degradation (10% after four weeks).

Charlemagne’s Health in ‘Old Age’: Did It Affect Carolingian Military Strategy?

Mediaevistik ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-53
Author(s):  
Bernard S. Bachrach
Keyword(s):  
Old Age ◽  
The Political ◽  
Military Strategy ◽  
The West ◽  
Long Time

During the first thirty-three years of his reign as king of the Franks, i.e., prior to his coronation as emperor on Christmas day 800, Charlemagne, scholars generally agree, pursued a successful long-term offensive and expansionist strategy. This strategy was aimed at conquering large swaths of erstwhile imperial territory in the west and bringing under Carolingian rule a wide variety of peoples, who either themselves or their regional predecessors previously had not been subject to Frankish regnum.1 For a very long time, scholars took the position that Charlemagne continued to pursue this expansionist strategy throughout the imperial years, i.e., from his coronation on Christmas Day 800 until his final illness in later January 814. For example, Louis Halphen observed: “comme empereur, Charles poursuit, sans plus, l’oeuvre entamée avant l’an 800.”2 F. L. Ganshof, who also wrote several studies treating Charlemagne’s army, was in lock step with Halphen and observed: “As emperor, Charlemagne pursued the political and military course he had been following before 25 December 800.”3

The Spread of Pollutants from Harbour Sludge Depots

1984 ◽  
Vol 16 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 623-633
Author(s):  
M Loxham ◽  
F Weststrate
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Molecular Diffusion ◽  
Near Field ◽  
Parameter Analysis ◽  
Migration Patterns ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Dilution Effects ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Harbour Sludge

It is generally agreed that both the landfill option, or the civil techniques option for the final disposal of contaminated harbour sludge involves the isolation of the sludge from the environment. For short time scales, engineered barriers such as a bentonite screen, plastic sheets, pumping strategies etc. can be used. However for long time scales the effectiveness of such measures cannot be counted upon. It is thus necessary to be able to predict the long term environmenttal spread of contaminants from a mature landfill. A model is presented that considers diffusion and adsorption in the landfill site and convection and adsorption in the underlaying aquifer. From a parameter analysis starting form practical values it is shown that the adsorption behaviour and the molecular diffusion coefficient of the sludge, are the key parameters involved in the near field. The dilution effects of the far field migration patterns are also illustrated.

The Many Faces of Socioeconomic Change

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Toye
Keyword(s):  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Adam Smith ◽  
First Century ◽  
Social Progress ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Face ◽  
Scientific Expertise ◽  
The Many ◽  
Century Development

This book provides a survey of different ways in which economic sociocultural and political aspects of human progress have been studied since the time of Adam Smith. Inevitably, over such a long time span, it has been necessary to concentrate on highlighting the most significant contributions, rather than attempting an exhaustive treatment. The aim has been to bring into focus an outline of the main long-term changes in the way that socioeconomic development has been envisaged. The argument presented is that the idea of socioeconomic development emerged with the creation of grand evolutionary sequences of social progress that were the products of Enlightenment and mid-Victorian thinkers. By the middle of the twentieth century, when interest in the accelerating development gave the topic a new impetus, its scope narrowed to a set of economically based strategies. After 1960, however, faith in such strategies began to wane, in the face of indifferent results and general faltering of confidence in economists’ boasts of scientific expertise. In the twenty-first century, development research is being pursued using a research method that generates disconnected results. As a result, it seems unlikely that any grand narrative will be created in the future and that neo-liberalism will be the last of this particular kind of socioeconomic theory.

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