Alcohol Consumption and Risk of All-Cause and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in Men

This study examined the association between consumption of alcoholic beverages and all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in a cohort of men (n=31,367). In the Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for age, year of examination, body mass index (BMI), smoking, family history of CVD, and aerobic fitness, there were no significant differences in risk of all-cause mortality across alcohol intake groups. Risk of CVD mortality was reduced 29% in quartile 1 (HR = 0.71, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.53, 0.95) and 25% in quartile 2 (HR = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.58, 0.98). The amount of alcohol consumed to achieve this risk reduction was <6 drinks/week; less than the amount currently recommended. The addition of other potential confounders and effect modifiers including blood pressure, insulin sensitivity, lipid levels, and psychological variables did not affect the magnitude of association. Future research is needed to validate the current public health recommendations for alcohol consumption.

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Prospective study of restless legs syndrome and total and cardiovascular mortality among women

Neurology ◽

10.1212/wnl.0000000000004814 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 90 (2) ◽

pp. e135-e141 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

Yinge Li ◽

Yanping Li ◽

John W. Winkelman ◽

Arthur S. Walters ◽

Jiali Han ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Restless Legs Syndrome ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Total Mortality ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Health Study ◽

Restless Legs ◽

Specific Mortality ◽

Cvd Mortality

ObjectiveWe prospectively examined whether women with physician-diagnosed restless legs syndrome (RLS) had a higher risk of total and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality relative to those without RLS.MethodsThe current study included 57,417 women (mean age 67 years) from the Nurses' Health Study without cancer, renal failure, and CVD at baseline (2002). Main outcomes were total and CVD mortality. We used the Cox proportional hazards model to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for all-cause and CVD-specific mortality based on RLS status, adjusting for age, presence of major chronic diseases, and other potential confounders.ResultsWe documented 6,448 deaths during 10 years of follow-up. We did not observe a significant association between presence of physician-diagnosed RLS and high risk of total mortality (adjusted HR 1.15, 95% CI 0.98–1.34). When cause-specific mortality was studied, participants with RLS had a significantly higher risk of CVD mortality (adjusted HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.02–2.00) relative to those without RLS after adjustment for potential confounders. Longer duration of RLS diagnosis was significantly associated with a higher risk of CVD mortality (p for trend = 0.04). Excluding participants with common RLS comorbidities strengthened the association between RLS and total (adjusted HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.03–1.97) and CVD mortality (adjusted HR 2.27, 95% CI 1.21–4.28). However, we did not find a significant association between RLS and mortality due to cancer and other causes.ConclusionsWomen with RLS had a higher CVD mortality rate, which may not be fully explained by common co-occurring disorders of RLS.

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P6355The behavior of atrial fibrillation in patients with heart failure hospitalization

European Heart Journal ◽

10.1093/eurheartj/ehz746.0951 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽

Author(s):

M Fukunaga ◽

K Hirose ◽

A Isotani ◽

T Morinaga ◽

K Ando

Keyword(s):

Heart Failure ◽

Atrial Fibrillation ◽

Cardiovascular Disease ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Significant Difference ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background Relationship between atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) is often compared with proverbial question of which came first, the chicken or the egg. Some patients showing AF at the HF admission result in restoration of sinus rhythm (SR) at discharge. It is not well elucidated that the restoration into SR during hospitalization can render the preventive effect for rehospitalization. Purpose To investigate the impact of restoration into SR during hospitalization for readmission rate of the HF patients showing AF. Methods We enrolled consecutive 640 HF patients hospitalized from January 2015 to December 2015. Patients data were retrospectively investigated from medical record. Patients showing atrial fibrillation on admission but unrecognized ever were defined as “incident AF”; patients with AF diagnosed before admission were defined as “prevalent AF”. Primary endpoint was a composite of death from cardiovascular disease or hospitalization for worsening heart failure. Secondary endpoints were death from cardiovascular disease, unplanned hospitalization related to heart failure, and any hospitalization. Results During mean follow up of 19 months, 139 patients (22%) were categorized as incident AF and 145 patients (23%) were categorized as prevalent AF. Among 239 patients showing AF on admission, 44 patients were discharged in SR (39 patients in incident AF and 5 patients in prevalent AF). Among incident AF patients, the primary composite end point occurred in significantly fewer in those who discharged in SR (19% vs. 42% at 1-year; 23% vs. 53% at 2-year follow-up, p=0.005). To compare the risk factors related to readmission due to HF with the cox proportional-hazards model, AF only during hospitalization [Hazard Ratio (HR)=0.37, p<0.01] and prevalent AF (HR=1.67, p=0.04) was significantly associated. There was no significant difference depending on LVEF. Conclusion Newly diagnosed AF with restoration to SR during hospitalization was a good marker to forecast future prognosis.

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Time to Apprehension and the Correlates of Warrant Closure

Crime & Delinquency ◽

10.1177/0011128716642250 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 63 (3) ◽

pp. 296-312

Author(s):

Sarah W. Craun ◽

Andrew D. Tiedt

Keyword(s):

Sex Offenders ◽

Sex Offender ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Child Pornography ◽

Past Research ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Future Research ◽

Hazards Model

To understand how offenders are caught, past research has focused on case closures, which combines the identification and apprehension of a fugitive. However, there is a gap in applied research concerning duration to apprehension and variation in time to capture by crime. This study examined the days to close arrest warrants using administrative data containing 1.3 million cases. A Cox proportional hazards model demonstrated that sex crimes involving contact or encompassing child pornography/exploitation, kidnapping, sex offender registration violations, and warrants involving assaults or an armed/dangerous notation had the strongest relationships to warrant closure. The results illustrate the prioritizing of cases involving sex offenders and violent offenders, as well as underscoring a need for future research on time to warrant closure.

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Association Between Music Engagement and Mortality in Middle-Aged and Older Adults in the US

Innovation in Aging ◽

10.1093/geroni/igab046.2283 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 5 (Supplement_1) ◽

pp. 598-598

Author(s):

Andrew Fiscella ◽

Britney Veal ◽

Ming Ji ◽

Hongdao Meng

Keyword(s):

Older Adults ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Independent Effect ◽

Current Evidence ◽

Future Research ◽

Middle Aged ◽

Activity Engagement

Abstract Music engagement is a universal human activity that transcends cultural and geographic boundaries. Current evidence suggests that music engages many diverse brain networks with wide-ranging effects on physiological, cognitive, and affective processes. As a result, music activity engagement may be associated with enhanced cognitive reserves and reduced stress. However, it remains unclear whether music activity engagement is associated with any survival advantage in the general population. This study tested this hypothesis in a nationally-representative sample of middle-aged and older adults in the U.S. A cohort of 3,540 respondents from the Health and Retirement Study was followed from 2002 to 2018. Music engagement was measured by self-reported participation in passive and/or active music activities. Potential confounders included socio-demographics, health and functional status, and health-related behaviors. We plotted the Kaplan-Meier survival curves by music engagement level and used Cox proportional hazards model to examine the independent effect of music engagement on mortality. Musical engagement levels were significantly associated with mortality in both the unadjusted and adjusted analyses. Respondents who reported engaging with music at a moderate or high level had lower mortality risk as compared to those who did not (HR=.83, p=0.015; HR=.78, p=0.003, respectively). These findings suggest that music engagement in the middle to late life may have an independent beneficial effect in promoting longevity. Future research should examine whether this observed effect was causal and existed in other populations. If confirmed, interventions should be designed to promote music engagement among middle-aged and older adults.

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A polymorphism in ACE2 is associated with a lower risk for fatal cardiovascular events in females: the MORGAM project

Journal of the Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone System ◽

10.1177/1470320311405557 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 504-509 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Ciara Vangjeli ◽

Patrick Dicker ◽

David-Alexandre Tregouet ◽

Denis C Shields ◽

Alun Evans ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Cardiovascular Disease ◽

Cardiovascular Events ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Disease Risk ◽

Cardiovascular Disease Risk ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Nucleotide Polymorphisms ◽

Ace2 Gene

Angiotensin II, a vasoconstrictor and the main effector molecule of the renin–angiotensin system, is known to influence inflammation, thrombosis, low-density lipoprotein oxidation and growth factors, all of which contribute to cardiovascular disease. The associations of polymorphisms in the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 ( ACE2) gene with cardiovascular risk have not been fully determined. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in ACE2 were genotyped in participants of the prospective MORGAM study ( n = 5092) from five cohorts: ATBC, FINRISK, Northern Sweden, PRIME/Belfast and PRIME/France. Using a case-cohort design, associations were sought between SNPs and haplotypes with cardiovascular events during follow-up (Cox proportional hazards model). The comparison group were a subset of all MORGAM participants who were selected to ensure similar age and sex distributions among the cases and controls. The A allele of the rs2285666 SNP (HR = 0.3, p = 0.04) was significantly associated with the risk of cardiovascular death in female subjects. These findings complement those found in other studies of SNPs in the ACE2 gene in relation to cardiovascular disease risk. As females carry two copies of the ACE2 gene, and given its plausible biological role in cardiovascular disease risk, further studies of ACE2 should be prioritised.

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A prospective study of waist circumference trajectories and incident cardiovascular disease in China: the Kailuan Cohort Study

American Journal of Clinical Nutrition ◽

10.1093/ajcn/nqaa331 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Liang Wang ◽

Yujin Lee ◽

Yuntao Wu ◽

Xinyuan Zhang ◽

Cheng Jin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Cardiovascular Disease ◽

Waist Circumference ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Plasma Concentrations ◽

Positive Association ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Stable Group ◽

Incident Cardiovascular Disease

ABSTRACT Background Single measurements of waist circumference (WC) predict the incident cardiovascular disease (CVD); however, long-term patterns of WC and their association with the incidence of CVD are poorly characterized. Objective We aimed to identify WC trajectories and determine their association with incident CVD (stroke and myocardial infarction) and examine whether the association persisted among individuals without obesity. Methods We included 75,535 participants from a community-based cohort in China who were aged >18 y and free of stroke, coronary artery disease, and cancer in 2010 (the baseline). WC and other covariates were repeatedly measured in 2006, 2008, and 2010. WC trajectories were identified by latent mixture modeling. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to examine the association between WC trajectories and incident CVD, after adjustment for age, sex, income, education, systolic blood pressure, lipid profiles, plasma concentrations of glucose, C-reactive protein, smoking, and alcohol drinking. Results We identified 4 WC trajectories based on 2006 WC measurement and change patterns during 2006–2010: low stable (n = 12,072; mean WC 74.1–75.1 cm), moderate stable (n = 41,750; mean WC 85.1–86.6 cm), moderate-high stable (n = 19,914; mean WC 95.6–97.2 cm), and high stable (n = 1,799; mean WC 106.3–110.9 cm). During 2010–2016, we documented 2819 incident CVD events. Compared with the low-stable group, groups with elevated WC trajectories had a higher risk of CVD events during 6 y of follow-up (2010–2016). Adjusted HRs (95% CIs) were 1.49 (1.21, 1.83) for the moderate stable group, 1.71(1.38, 2.12) for the moderate-high stable group, and 1.45 (1.06, 2.00) for the high stable group. After further adjusting for BMI or excluding obese participants, we observed similar results. The positive association between WC and incident CVD was higher in individuals who were aged <60 y (P-interaction < 0.0001). Conclusions WC trajectory patterns were associated with altered risk of CVD among Chinese adults, even among people without BMI-defined obesity. When stratifying by age, the association was observed to be higher in younger adults.

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Age at Exposure to Parental Suicide and the Subsequent Risk of Suicide in Young People

Crisis ◽

10.1027/0227-5910/a000468 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 39 (1) ◽

pp. 27-36 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Kuan-Ying Lee ◽

Chung-Yi Li ◽

Kun-Chia Chang ◽

Tsung-Hsueh Lu ◽

Ying-Yeh Chen

Keyword(s):

Young People ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Birth Registry ◽

Data Set ◽

Parental Suicide ◽

The Impact ◽

Age At Exposure

Abstract. Background: We investigated the age at exposure to parental suicide and the risk of subsequent suicide completion in young people. The impact of parental and offspring sex was also examined. Method: Using a cohort study design, we linked Taiwan's Birth Registry (1978–1997) with Taiwan's Death Registry (1985–2009) and identified 40,249 children who had experienced maternal suicide (n = 14,431), paternal suicide (n = 26,887), or the suicide of both parents (n = 281). Each exposed child was matched to 10 children of the same sex and birth year whose parents were still alive. This yielded a total of 398,081 children for our non-exposed cohort. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to compare the suicide risk of the exposed and non-exposed groups. Results: Compared with the non-exposed group, offspring who were exposed to parental suicide were 3.91 times (95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.10–4.92 more likely to die by suicide after adjusting for baseline characteristics. The risk of suicide seemed to be lower in older male offspring (HR = 3.94, 95% CI = 2.57–6.06), but higher in older female offspring (HR = 5.30, 95% CI = 3.05–9.22). Stratified analyses based on parental sex revealed similar patterns as the combined analysis. Limitations: As only register-based data were used, we were not able to explore the impact of variables not contained in the data set, such as the role of mental illness. Conclusion: Our findings suggest a prominent elevation in the risk of suicide among offspring who lost their parents to suicide. The risk elevation differed according to the sex of the afflicted offspring as well as to their age at exposure.

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Proliferation-dominant high-grade astrocytoma: survival benefit associated with extensive resection of FLAIR abnormality region

Journal of Neurosurgery ◽

10.3171/2018.12.jns182775 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 132 (4) ◽

pp. 998-1005 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Haihui Jiang ◽

Yong Cui ◽

Xiang Liu ◽

Xiaohui Ren ◽

Mingxiao Li ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Survival Benefit ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Characteristic Curve ◽

Extent Of Resection ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

High Grade ◽

Extensive Resection ◽

High Grade Astrocytoma

OBJECTIVEThe aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between extent of resection (EOR) and survival in terms of clinical, molecular, and radiological factors in high-grade astrocytoma (HGA).METHODSClinical and radiological data from 585 cases of molecularly defined HGA were reviewed. In each case, the EOR was evaluated twice: once according to contrast-enhanced T1-weighted images (CE-T1WI) and once according to fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) images. The ratio of the volume of the region of abnormality in CE-T1WI to that in FLAIR images (VFLAIR/VCE-T1WI) was calculated and a receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine the optimal cutoff value for that ratio. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the prognostic value of each factor.RESULTSBoth the EOR evaluated from CE-T1WI and the EOR evaluated from FLAIR could divide the whole cohort into 4 subgroups with different survival outcomes (p < 0.001). Cases were stratified into 2 subtypes based on VFLAIR/VCE-T1WIwith a cutoff of 10: a proliferation-dominant subtype and a diffusion-dominant subtype. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a significant survival advantage for the proliferation-dominant subtype (p < 0.0001). The prognostic implication has been further confirmed in the Cox proportional hazards model (HR 1.105, 95% CI 1.078–1.134, p < 0.0001). The survival of patients with proliferation-dominant HGA was significantly prolonged in association with extensive resection of the FLAIR abnormality region beyond contrast-enhancing tumor (p = 0.03), while no survival benefit was observed in association with the extensive resection in the diffusion-dominant subtype (p=0.86).CONCLUSIONSVFLAIR/VCE-T1WIis an important classifier that could divide the HGA into 2 subtypes with distinct invasive features. Patients with proliferation-dominant HGA can benefit from extensive resection of the FLAIR abnormality region, which provides the theoretical basis for a personalized resection strategy.

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Adapting the Default Weighted Survival Analysis Modelling Approach to Model IFRS 9 LGD

Risks ◽

10.3390/risks9060103 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (6) ◽

pp. 103

Author(s):

Morne Joubert ◽

Tanja Verster ◽

Helgard Raubenheimer ◽

Willem D. Schutte

Keyword(s):

Survival Analysis ◽

Financial Reporting ◽

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Survival Curve ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Reporting Standard ◽

International Financial Reporting Standard ◽

Ifrs 9

Survival analysis is one of the techniques that could be used to predict loss given default (LGD) for regulatory capital (Basel) purposes. When using survival analysis to model LGD, a proposed methodology is the default weighted survival analysis (DWSA) method. This paper is aimed at adapting the DWSA method (used to model Basel LGD) to estimate the LGD for International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 9 impairment requirements. The DWSA methodology allows for over recoveries, default weighting and negative cashflows. For IFRS 9, this methodology should be adapted, as the estimated LGD is a function of in the expected credit losses (ECL). Our proposed IFRS 9 LGD methodology makes use of survival analysis to estimate the LGD. The Cox proportional hazards model allows for a baseline survival curve to be adjusted to produce survival curves for different segments of the portfolio. The forward-looking LGD values are adjusted for different macro-economic scenarios and the ECL is calculated for each scenario. These ECL values are probability weighted to produce a final ECL estimate. We illustrate our proposed IFRS 9 LGD methodology and ECL estimation on a dataset from a retail portfolio of a South African bank.

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Risk factors associated with major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events following percutaneous coronary intervention: a 10-year follow-up comparing random survival forest and Cox proportional-hazards model

BMC Cardiovascular Disorders ◽

10.1186/s12872-020-01834-1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Maryam Farhadian ◽

Sahar Dehdar Karsidani ◽

Azadeh Mozayanimonfared ◽

Hossein Mahjub

Keyword(s):

Proportional Hazards ◽

Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Coronary Intervention ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards ◽

Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽

Hazards Model ◽

Cerebrovascular Events ◽

Long Term Follow Up ◽

Stent Length

Abstract Background Due to the limited number of studies with long term follow-up of patients undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (PCI), we investigated the occurrence of Major Adverse Cardiac and Cerebrovascular Events (MACCE) during 10 years of follow-up after coronary angioplasty using Random Survival Forest (RSF) and Cox proportional hazards models. Methods The current retrospective cohort study was performed on 220 patients (69 women and 151 men) undergoing coronary angioplasty from March 2009 to March 2012 in Farchshian Medical Center in Hamadan city, Iran. Survival time (month) as the response variable was considered from the date of angioplasty to the main endpoint or the end of the follow-up period (September 2019). To identify the factors influencing the occurrence of MACCE, the performance of Cox and RSF models were investigated in terms of C index, Integrated Brier Score (IBS) and prediction error criteria. Results Ninety-six patients (43.7%) experienced MACCE by the end of the follow-up period, and the median survival time was estimated to be 98 months. Survival decreased from 99% during the first year to 39% at 10 years' follow-up. By applying the Cox model, the predictors were identified as follows: age (HR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.01–1.05), diabetes (HR = 2.17, 95% CI 1.29–3.66), smoking (HR = 2.41, 95% CI 1.46–3.98), and stent length (HR = 1.74, 95% CI 1.11–2.75). The predictive performance was slightly better by the RSF model (IBS of 0.124 vs. 0.135, C index of 0.648 vs. 0.626 and out-of-bag error rate of 0.352 vs. 0.374 for RSF). In addition to age, diabetes, smoking, and stent length, RSF also included coronary artery disease (acute or chronic) and hyperlipidemia as the most important variables. Conclusion Machine-learning prediction models such as RSF showed better performance than the Cox proportional hazards model for the prediction of MACCE during long-term follow-up after PCI.

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