Expert’s Heuristic Biases in Airport Predictive Risk Assessments

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Cunha ◽  
◽  
Michelle Andrade ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Regulatory Agency ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Specific Group ◽  
Professional Background ◽  
Amount Of Information ◽  
Regulatory Quality ◽  
Information Characteristics ◽  
Predictive Risk ◽  
Risk Judgments

Expert perceptions have been increasingly used to perform risk assessments in airport predictive risk assessments in recent years. Although it is known that biases are less influential in groups of experts when compared to laypeople, they still can be residually present in such tasks with this specific group. Therefore, this article aims to propose (1) the pragmatic organization of knowledge about the biases that may affect airport risk assessments by groups of experts and (2) which of them most often arise in this type of analysis and at what intensity. For the development of the work, we carried out a dense bibliographic review of the theme. Later, we performed a predictive risk assessment and a survey, with the support of an experienced group of 30 experts from Brazilian regulatory agency and airport operators. After 1224 risk judgments, experts were able to clearly indicate regulations and their sections that are disproportionately more and less important in terms of risk, leading States to a better regulatory quality only by changing their logic of actions to a risk-based approach. Later the group answered a survey on a list of 12 heuristic biases created from the bibliographic review. Results showed that, in fact experts have a resistance to biases influence, mainly based in their academic and professional background, but also showed this influence is not exactly negligible. It was also possible to rank the heuristic biases in terms of importance and indicate that experts tend to concern with three hierarchical information characteristics when judging risk: at first, would be the form in which risk problems are presented; second, how they interpret information presented; and third, the amount of information presented.

Effects of Decomposition and Categorization on Fraud-Risk Assessments

2013 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 201-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Favere-Marchesi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Decomposition ◽  
Fraud Risk ◽  
Perceived Need ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Risk Judgments ◽  
Fraud Risk Assessments

SUMMARY This study examines two issues related to the decomposition of fraud-risk assessments. First, it investigates whether there is a significant difference in the fraud-risk assessment of auditors who decompose the fraud judgment from that of auditors who merely categorize fraud-risk factors. Second, it examines whether the perceived need to modify the audit plan and the extent of testing in response to the fraud-risk assessment is significantly influenced by the decomposition of the fraud judgment. In an experiment with 60 audit managers, auditors who decomposed fraud-risk judgments have significantly different fraud-risk assessments than those of auditors who simply categorized fraud cues. When management's attitude cues are indicative of a low fraud risk, decomposition auditors are significantly more sensitive to changes in incentive and opportunity cues than categorization auditors. Finally, auditors who decompose fraud-risk assessments perceive a significantly higher need to revise audit plans and to increase the extent of audit testing.

Review Partners' Reactions to Contact Partner Risk Judgments of Prospective Clients

2003 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan Ayers ◽  
Steven E. Kaplan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Review Process ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Management Strategy ◽  
Audit Firms ◽  
Client Data ◽  
Consistent Assessment ◽  
Contact Partner ◽  
Risk Judgments ◽  
Partner Risk

As a part of their risk management strategy, large audit firms have established a second partner review process during client screening. It is unclear, however, whether review partners are biased by the engagement risk assessment that is provided to them by a contact partner as a part of this process. Of particular interest are cases where the contact partner's engagement risk assessment is overly favorable when compared to the underlying evidence. We report the results of an experiment where approximately one-half of the review partners received an engagement risk assessment that was overly favorable when compared to the underlying evidence, while the other half of the review partners received an assessment that was more consistent with the client data provided. We examined the effect of this manipulated difference on review partner engagement risk assessments, acceptance judgments, fee judgments, and justification activity. Results from a sample of 78 audit partners reveal that, on average, they were not influenced by differences in the contact partner's assessment when rendering their own engagement risk assessments. However, the acceptance and fee judgments of the partners who received overly favorable risk assessments were more conservative than those of the partners who received a more consistent assessment. In addition, justification activity was greater for the group who received overly favorable judgments. These results imply that a second partner review appears to aid auditing firms in avoiding overly risky clients during the acceptance process.

Comparison of SCORE and Reynolds cardiovascular risk assessments in a cohort without cardiovascular disease

2013 ◽  
Vol 154 (43) ◽  
pp. 1709-1712 ◽  
Author(s):  
Csaba Móczár
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Cardiovascular Risk ◽  
Screening Program ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Scoring Systems ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Gender And Age ◽  
Medium Risk

Introduction: Cardiovascular risk assessment may help in the identification of symptom-free subjects with high cardiovascular risk. Aim: The author studied the correlation between SCORE and Reynolds risk assessment systems based on data from the cardiovascular risk screening program carried out in subjects without cardiovascular disease. Method: Data obtained from 4462 subjects (1977 men and 2485 women; mean age, 47,4 years) were analysed. The comparison was based on risk categories of the SCORE system. Results: There was a strong correlation between the two scoring systems in the low risk population (under <2% SCORE risk the Spearman rho = 1, p < 0.001). A weak correlation was found in the medium risk group (between 3–4% the Spearman rho = 0.59–0.49, p < 0.001 and between 10–14% the Spearman rho = 0.42, ns.) and a stronger correlation in the high risk group (>15% the Spearmen rho = 0.8, p = 0.017). When correlations were analysed in gender and age categories, the weakest correlation was detected in medium risk women over 40 years of age. In cases when the differences between the two scoring systems were significant, the hsCRP levels were significantly higher (4.1 vs. 5.67 mg/L, p < 0.001). Conclusions: Introduction of hsCRP into cardiovascular risk assessments can refine the risk status of symptom-free subjects, especially among intermediate risk middle-age women (two-step risk assessment). Orv. Hetil., 154 (43), 1709–1712.

The Halo Effect in Business Risk Audits: Can Strategic Risk Assessment Bias Auditor Judgment about Accounting Details?

2005 ◽  
Vol 80 (3) ◽  
pp. 921-939 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ed O'Donnell ◽  
Joseph J. Schultz
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Performance Evaluation ◽  
Laboratory Experiments ◽  
Halo Effect ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Business Risk ◽  
Auditor Judgment ◽  
Strategic Risk ◽  
Strategic Assessment ◽  
Assessment Bias

Many auditors use an audit methodology that requires a strategic risk assessment of their client's business model as a first step for assessing audit risks. This study examines whether the holistic perspective that auditors acquire in making a strategic risk assessment influences the extent to which they adjust account-level risk assessments when they encounter changes in accounts that are inconsistent with information about client operations. Based on halo theory from the performance evaluation literature, we hypothesize that auditors who (1) perform (do not perform) strategic assessment, and (2) develop favorable (unfavorable) strategic risk assessments, are less (more) likely to adjust account-level risk assessments for inconsistent fluctuations. Data from two laboratory experiments using experienced auditors support both hypotheses. Findings suggest that the halo effect generated during strategic assessment influences judgment by altering auditor tolerance for inconsistent fluctuations.

Applying the risk principle to optimize accuracy and equity in correctional risk assessment: Results From a Simulation

2021 ◽  
pp. 0306624X2098652
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Principle ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
The Impact

As the use of risk assessments for correctional populations has grown, so has concern that these instruments exacerbate existing racial and ethnic disparities. While much of the attention arising from this concern has focused on how algorithms are designed, relatively little consideration has been given to how risk assessments are used. To this end, the present study tests whether application of the risk principle would help preserve predictive accuracy while, at the same time, mitigate disparities. Using a sample of 9,529 inmates released from Minnesota prisons who had been assessed multiple times during their confinement on a fully-automated risk assessment, this study relies on both actual and simulated data to examine the impact of program assignment decisions on changes in risk level from intake to release. The findings showed that while the risk principle was used in practice to some extent, the simulated results showed that greater adherence to the risk principle would increase reductions in risk levels and minimize the disparities observed at intake. The simulated data further revealed the most favorable outcomes would be achieved by not only applying the risk principle, but also by expanding program capacity for the higher-risk inmates in order to adequately reduce their risk.

scholarly journals An Alternative Risk Assessment Model of Urban Waterlogging: A Case Study of Ningbo City

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 826
Author(s):  
Meiling Zhou ◽  
Xiuli Feng ◽  
Kaikai Liu ◽  
Chi Zhang ◽  
Lijian Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
The North ◽  
Coastal Cities ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
The City

Influenced by climate change, extreme weather events occur frequently, and bring huge impacts to urban areas, including urban waterlogging. Conducting risk assessments of urban waterlogging is a critical step to diagnose problems, improve infrastructure and achieve sustainable development facing extreme weathers. This study takes Ningbo, a typical coastal city in the Yangtze River Delta, as an example to conduct a risk assessment of urban waterlogging with high-resolution remote sensing images and high-precision digital elevation models to further analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of waterlogging risk. Results indicate that waterlogging risk in the city proper of Ningbo is mainly low risk, accounting for 36.9%. The higher-risk and medium-risk areas have the same proportions, accounting for 18.7%. They are followed by the lower-risk and high-risk areas, accounting for 15.5% and 9.6%, respectively. In terms of space, waterlogging risk in the city proper of Ningbo is high in the south and low in the north. The high-risk area is mainly located to the west of Jiangdong district and the middle of Haishu district. The low-risk area is mainly distributed in the north of Jiangbei district. These results are consistent with the historical situation of waterlogging in Ningbo, which prove the effectiveness of the risk assessment model and provide an important reference for the government to prevent and mitigate waterlogging. The optimized risk assessment model is also of importance for waterlogging risk assessments in coastal cities. Based on this model, the waterlogging risk of coastal cities can be quickly assessed, combining with local characteristics, which will help improve the city’s capability of responding to waterlogging disasters and reduce socio-economic loss.

scholarly journals A framework for global river flood risk assessments

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 1871-1892 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. C. Winsemius ◽  
L. P. H. Van Beek ◽  
B. Jongman ◽  
P. J. Ward ◽  
A. Bouwman
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Flood Routing ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
First Case ◽  
Impact Models ◽  
Damage Estimates

Abstract. There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from the EM-DAT database and World Bank sources. We discuss and show sensitivities of the estimated risks with regard to the use of different climate input sets, decisions made in the downscaling algorithm, and different approaches to establish impact models.

scholarly journals The belief that politics drive scientific research & its impact on COVID-19 risk assessment

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0249937
Author(s):  
Danielle M. McLaughlin ◽  
Jack Mewhirter ◽  
Rebecca Sanders
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Scientific Research ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Negatively Associated ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Preventative Health ◽  
The Impact

We use survey data collected from 12,037 US respondents to examine the extent to which the American public believes that political motives drive the manner in which scientific research is conducted and assess the impact that such beliefs have on COVID-19 risk assessments. We find that this is a commonly held belief and that it is negatively associated with risk assessments. Public distrust in scientists could complicate efforts to combat COVID-19, given that risk assessments are strongly associated with one’s propensity to adopt preventative health measures.

scholarly journals Scientific Trust, Risk Assessment, and Conspiracy Beliefs about COVID-19 - Four Patterns of Consensus and Disagreement between Scientific Experts and the German Public

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias Rothmund ◽  
Fahima Farkhari ◽  
Flavio Azevedo ◽  
Carolin-Theresa Ziemer
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Cognitive Ability ◽  
Scientific Literacy ◽  
General Public ◽  
Latent Class ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Scientific Experts ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Conspiracy Beliefs ◽  
Motivational Structure

We investigated laypersons’ agreement with technical claims about the spread of the Sars-CoV-2 virus and with claims about the risk from COVID-19 in the general public in Germany (N = 1,575) and compared these with the evaluations of scientific experts (N = 128). Using Latent Class Analysis, we distinguished four segments in the general public. Two groups (mainstream and cautious, 73%) are generally consistent with scientific experts in their evaluations. Two groups (doubters and deniers, 27%) differ distinctively from expert evaluations and tend to believe in conspiracies about COVID-19. Deniers (8%) are characterized by low risk assessments, anti-elitist sentiments and low compliance with containment measures. Doubters (19%) are characterized by general uncertainty in the distinction between true and false claims and by low scientific literacy in terms of cognitive ability and style. Our research indicates that conspiracy beliefs about COVID-19 cannot be linked to a single and distinct motivational structure.

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