scholarly journals Republic of South Sudan

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (301) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Political Stability ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Significant Progress ◽  
Sharp Decline ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Oil Export ◽  
Fiscal Revenue ◽  
Financing Gap

After five years of civil conflict, the warring parties came to a peace agreement in September 2018. Until the COVID-19 crisis broke out, improved political stability and an uptick in international oil prices led to significant progress, with a rebound in economic growth, a decline in inflation, and a stabilization of the exchange rate. The COVID-19 pandemic is severely disrupting South Sudan’s economy, leading to a sharp decline in projected growth (-3.6 percent in FY20/21, about 10 percentage points below the pre-pandemic baseline) and a contraction of oil export proceeds—the main source of exports and fiscal revenue—which has given rise to urgent balance of payments needs and opened a large fiscal financing gap.

U.S. Policy Towards Angola Since 1975

1992 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Inge Tvedten
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
New York ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
The South ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Armed Struggle ◽  
South Africans ◽  
The Government

It is generally agreed that the battle of Cuito Cuanavale in March 1988 marked the final attempt to secure a military solution to the Angolan conflict. Thereafter, in December 1988, South Africa, Cuba, and Angola signed the so-called ‘New York accord’ that included a timetable for the phased withdrawal of the South Africans and the Cubans from Namibia and Angola, respectively; in June 1989, the Gbadolite agreement initiated African attempts to end the continuing armed struggle in Angola; and in March 1990, Namibia achieved its long-awaited independence. But despite these efforts and developments, the war continued between the Government that had been established in Luanda by the Movimento Popular de Libertacão de Angola (M.P.L.A.) in November 1975 and the União Nacional para a Independência Total de Angola (Unita), with devastating implications for the country's estimated ten million inhabitants. Not before May 1991 was a final peace agreement signed in Portugal, and then with considerably poorer options for political stability and economic recovery than would have been the case after the original accord in New York.

Resource wealth as rent leverage: Rethinking the oil–stability nexus

2015 ◽  
Vol 34 (6) ◽  
pp. 597-617 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Smith
Keyword(s):  
Resource Curse ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Weak State ◽  
Regime Stability ◽  
Resource Wealth ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
Oil Wealth ◽  
Cross National

The study of the “resource curse” has become a major research agenda with multiple outcomes of interest—regime type, regime stability, civil conflict and economic growth to name a few. However, the proliferation of different measurement choices has hamstrung the quest for knowledge accumulation. In this essay I present a new indicator for oil dependence—a concept I term rent leverage. It captures the share of individuals’ buying power that directly depends on fuel income and that nearly everywhere is controlled by political leaders. I use the new measure alongside fuel income per capita, to capture oil abundance, to explore the effects of oil wealth on political stability. Initial analysis of cross-national data from 1960 to 2009 suggests that rent leverage and fuel income strongly stabilize rulers of all types against regime change and that these effects are largely a function of cross-country differences. The stabilizing effects of oil income are significant but substantially smaller than rent leverage. The analysis further supports recent findings by Ross and Wright et al. that oil income and rent leverage both play stabilizing roles in autocracies, but that this effect is largely a cross-country one. Third, neither rent leverage nor oil income have any substantial or significant impact on civil war onset. Finally, contrary to both the weak state and coercion variants of resource curse theory, oil-producing countries appear to use less repression than others, and to have more durable regimes in part because of stronger states.

scholarly journals Elementary & Secondary Education Department Mardan, KP Pakistan

2020 ◽  
pp. 53-62
Author(s):  
Amir ZAMAN ◽  
◽  
Riaz AHMAD ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Education Department ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Viable Solution ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Government ◽  
Great Development

Afghanistan that remained the epicenter of terrorism and insurgency in the post 9/11 incident, suffered irreparable loss in both human and infrastructure, is now heading towards an era of peace and political stability. The signing of the peace agreement on February 29, 2020 by both the US government and the Taliban is a great development for strengthening democratization and power-sharing among the stakeholders in Afghanistan. However, certain hurdles stand in the way of peace and stability. This paper discusses some of the key areas such as the dilemma of Afghan presidential elections, Pakistan’s controversial role, role of neighboring countries and the Indo-Afghan Nexus. Lacunae in the US-Taliban agreement to the exclusion of the Afghan government in the agreement and the threat of the ISIS are some of the other hurdles in bringing peace and stability in the country. Bargaining among the US and Taliban and the various stakeholders of Afghanistan is the only viable solution to the problem which provides the basis for theoretical framework. Keywords: Peace, Hurdles, Afghanistan, Taliban, US

scholarly journals Illegal settlement in the Babile Elephant Sanctuary is threatening the resident elephant population

Oryx ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Emily Neil ◽  
Elizabeth Greengrass
Keyword(s):  
Political Stability ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Habitat Destruction ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Anthropogenic Pressure ◽  
Anthropogenic Pressures ◽  
Eastern Ethiopia ◽  
Elephant Conservation ◽  
Elephant Population ◽  
Near Future

Abstract The Babile Elephant Sanctuary in Ethiopia was established in 1970 specifically to protect its elephants Loxodonta africana. They were once part of a larger population that ranged in eastern Ethiopia and northern Somalia but that was largely extirpated during the 20th century. Since its establishment, the Sanctuary has experienced severe anthropogenic pressure, inadequate government support, and civil conflict. Mapping was undertaken to analyse the rate of human immigration into the Sanctuary in 2006, 2014 and 2017, as part of an assessment of the Sanctuary's effectiveness in protecting its resident elephant population and in mitigating anthropogenic pressures. From 2006 to 2017 the number of illegal houses in the Sanctuary increased from 18,000 to > 50,000, of which > 32,000 were in the area in which elephants range. This settlement, coupled with high demand for natural resources, has resulted in significant habitat destruction and could also have exacerbated human–elephant conflict. Elephant conservation and monitoring by the Born Free Foundation were challenging because of ethnic conflict; rural and political stability is required if efforts to protect wildlife are to be successful. Unless these issues are resolved and the integrity of the Sanctuary is restored, this elephant population will be extirpated in the near future.

scholarly journals Borderline Disorder: (De facto) Historical Ethnic Borders and Contemporary Conflict in Africa

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ömer Özak ◽  
Emilio Depetris-Chauvin
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Population Pressure ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Variable Approach ◽  
Initial Location ◽  
Spatial Partition ◽  
Underlying Mechanisms ◽  
Conflict In Africa ◽  
Cultural Similarity

We explore the effect of historical ethnic borders on contemporary non-civil conflict in Africa. Exploiting variations across artificial regions (i.e., grids of 50x50km) within an ethnicity's historical homeland, we document that both the intensive and extensive margins of contemporary conflict are concentrated close to historical ethnic borders. Following a theory-based instrumental variable approach, which generates a plausibly exogenous ethno-spatial partition of Africa, we find that grid cells with historical ethnic borders have 27 percentage points higher probability of conflict and 7.9 percentage points higher probability of being the initial location of a conflict. We uncover several key underlying mechanisms: competition for agricultural land, population pressure, cultural similarity and weak property rights.

Crackdown will complicate economic reform in the Gulf

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Policy ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Political Freedom ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
External Threats ◽  
Employment Goals ◽  
State Group ◽  
The Impact

Subject Narrowing political freedom in the Gulf. Significance Political freedoms in the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have been severely curtailed by a series of security policy responses to the 2011 Arab uprisings. Cyber crime laws have become more restrictive, the definition for terrorism much more expansive, and the six states have passed a controversial agreement coordinating internal security. Although the impact of the new measures has varied from one country to another, it has been most pronounced in Kuwait, which traditionally has had the most vocal and participatory political landscape. Impacts Intra-GCC security coordination will intensify as external threats such as the Islamic State group and the civil conflict in Yemen grow. Silencing of dissent reduces credibility of GCC representative bodies already afflicted by opposition boycott and low turnout. Gulf officials will emphasise the importance of political stability in justifying the political crackdown to Western counterparts. Such co-ordination will facilitate cross-border arrests, narrowing the space for political opposition across the Gulf. Intensification of patronage politics (through increased public sector employment) will undermine long-term employment goals for nationals.

Implementing the Peace: The Aggregate Implementation of Comprehensive Peace Agreements and Peace Duration after Intrastate Armed Conflict

2015 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 869-892 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madhav Joshi ◽  
Jason Michael Quinn
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Peace Building ◽  
Conflict Behavior ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
National Politics ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Building Process ◽  
Political Relations ◽  
The Government

The signing of a comprehensive peace agreement (CPA) is often seen as a historic milestone in a peace process, and its implementation takes a highly legitimized set of reforms and puts it front and center in national politics. This article examines the aggregate implementation of CPAs signed since 1989 and future conflict behavior between the negotiating parties and between the government and non-signatory groups. It argues that implementation is both a peace-building process and an outcome that normalizes political relations between hostile groups, solves commitment problems and addresses the root causes of civil conflict. Statistical tests utilizing new data on the implementation of CPAs support the argument. The extent to which an agreement is implemented is shown to have significant long-term effects on how long peace lasts – an effect that applies not only to the signatories of the agreement, but also to the government and non-signatory groups.

scholarly journals Transition from Civil War to Peace: The Role of the United Nations and International Community in Mozambique

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayokunu Adedokun
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
United Nations ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Community ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Budget Support ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
The United Nations

With the heavy involvement of the United Nations (UN) and the international community, the Rome General Peace Agreement of 1992 ended more than 16 years of civil war in Mozambique. The peace agreement and post-conflict initiatives by the international community was successful in transforming the Mozambique National Resistance
(Renamo) from a rebel group into a viable political party. Key components of the United Nations and the broader international community success in negotiating peace and creating conditions for political stability and democracy in Mozambique were (a) the provision of disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) before democratisation, (b) decentralization of humanitarian and relief efforts to provincial and district levels, (c) provision of financial support directly for the development of political parties, and (d) budget support to sectors relevant to peacebuilding. Though imperfect, Mozambique remains an important case study in how the UN and international community can help in post-conflict environments. Thus, the paper argues that success in peacebuilding operations depends on credible and impartial international support through the UN, as opposed to peacebuilding operations through the United States of America or Russia.

scholarly journals Ukraine

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (197) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Capital Markets ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Structural Reform ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Inclusive Growth ◽  
Sharp Decline ◽  
Track Record ◽  
Absolute Majority ◽  
External Demand ◽  
Containment Measures

Ukraine’s track record in macro-stabilization over the last 5 years and under successive Fund programs has been strong, but the goal of robust and inclusive growth remains elusive in the absence of sustained and comprehensive structural reform. Political circumstances were auspicious to address this long-standing challenge, with the President’s anti-corruption platform supported by an unprecedented absolute majority in parliament. However, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly worsened the outlook and has refocused government policies on containment and stabilization. Uncertainty is large, and the economy is projected to contract sharply as strict containment measures—in Ukraine and globally—led to sizable falls in domestic and external demand. The budget is expected to be hit hard, with a sharp decline in revenues and large emergency spending needs to address the crisis. This, together with the de facto closure of capital markets, has created an urgent balance of payments need.

scholarly journals Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (142) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Health Spending ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Financing Gap ◽  
Fiscal Space ◽  
The Impact

This paper presents Nigeria’s Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). The authorities’ immediate actions to respond to the crisis are welcome. The short-term focus on fiscal accommodation would allow for higher health spending and help alleviate the impact of the crisis on households and businesses. Steps taken toward a more unified and flexible exchange rate are also important and unification of the exchange rate should be expedited. Once the coronavirus disease 2019 crisis passes, the focus should remain on medium-term macroeconomic stability, with revenue-based fiscal consolidation essential to keep Nigeria’s debt sustainable and create fiscal space for priority spending. Implementation of the reform priorities under the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, particularly on power and governance, remains crucial to boost growth over the medium term. The emergency financing under the RFI will provide much needed liquidity support to respond to the urgent balance of payments needs. Additional assistance from development partners will be required to support the government’s efforts and close the large financing gap.

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