When Does Talk Become Costly?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela Poh
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Audience Costs ◽  
International Audience ◽  
Central Argument

Chapter 3 provides the theoretical framework for the central argument of this book—that China’s sanctions rhetoric has had a palpable impact on its behaviour. It shows how the fear of incurring ‘international audience costs’ drives certain aspects of states’ foreign policy behaviour. It discusses the conditions that need to be in place for the international audience cost theory to work—i.e. the offending state needs to care about international opinion, and a rhetorical actor must be present to draw attention to the differences between an offending state’s rhetoric and behaviour. It then applies this theoretical framework to China and examines why and how international audience costs is a crucial mechanism that provides the link between China’s sanctions rhetoric and its behaviour.

scholarly journals Audience costs, domestic economy and coercive diplomacy

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 205316801878711
Author(s):  
Akisato Suzuki
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
The State ◽  
Domestic Economy ◽  
Public Opinion Research ◽  
International Crisis ◽  
Coercive Diplomacy ◽  
Audience Costs ◽  
Economy Change

Does the state of the domestic economy change the size of the effect of audience costs? As public opinion research has shown, citizens assess the performance of their leaders based not only on foreign policy, but also on the domestic economy. Thus, if leaders are subject to audience costs, they should be even less able to afford failure in an international crisis when the economy is performing badly than when the economy is doing well. As a result, such leaders should be even more able to make their threats credible and, therefore, are more likely to be successful in coercive diplomacy. This novel prediction finds no empirical support in a replication study using Moon and Souva (2016). I discuss possible reasons for this result and avenues for further research.

Populist parties and foreign policy: The case of Italy’s Five Star Movement

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 523-541 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabrizio Coticchia ◽  
Valerio Vignoli
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
Populist Party

The role of political parties in foreign policy is gaining increasing attention. Nonetheless, despite an extraordinary interest in ‘populism’, the foreign policy of populist parties has rarely been investigated. This article provides an innovative theoretical framework, applying it on a rare example of a ‘pure’ populist party: Italy’s Five Star Movement. How has Five Star Movement positioned on Italian contribution to military operations abroad? What does such positioning say about its ideological leaning? In order to address such questions, the article analyses Five Star Movement’s MPs’ votes and speeches on foreign policy during its first term in Parliament (2013–2018). We find that, notwithstanding some ambiguities, the Movement’s stance has been mostly pacifist and humanitarian, resembling more a ‘left-libertarian populist party’ than a ‘sovereigntist far-right one’. Through these findings, the article contributes to the debate on populist parties and foreign policy in Europe, clarifying also the elusive ideological leaning of the Five Star Movement.

Is There a Trump Effect? An Experiment on Political Polarization and Audience Costs

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (02) ◽  
pp. 433-452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miles M. Evers ◽  
Aleksandr Fisher ◽  
Steven D. Schaaf
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
Political Polarization ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Presidential Transition ◽  
Audience Costs ◽  
The Public ◽  
Partisan Polarization

Does President Trump face domestic costs for foreign policy inconsistency? Will co-partisans and opposition-partisans equally punish Donald Trump for issuing flippant international threats and backing down? While the president said he could “stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody” without losing voters, the literature consistently shows that individuals, regardless of partisanship, disapprove of leaders who jeopardize the country’s reputation for credibility and resolve. Given the atypical nature of the Trump presidency, and the severe partisan polarization surrounding it, we investigate whether the logic of audience costs still applies in the Trump era. Using a unique experiment fielded during the 2016 presidential transition, we show that Republicans and Democrats impose equal audience costs on President Trump. And by varying the leader’s identity, between Donald Trump, Barack Obama, and “The President,” we demonstrate that the public adheres to a non-partisan logic in punishing leaders who renege on threats. Yet we also find Presidents Trump and Obama can reduce the magnitude of audience costs by justifying backing down as being “in America’s interest.” Even Democrats, despite their doubts of Donald Trump’s credibility, accept such justifications. Our findings encourage further exploration of partisan cues, leader-level attributes, and leader-level reputations.

scholarly journals Domestic structure and sub-national foreign policy: an explanatory framework

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (3/4) ◽  
pp. 102-118
Author(s):  
Ayman El-Dessouki
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Intergovernmental Relations ◽  
Comparative Method ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
International Agency ◽  
Foreign Policy Analysis ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Legal Grounds ◽  
Academic Debate

PurposeThis paper aims to examine the effects of domestic structure forces on “sub-national” foreign policy (SFP); an analytical concept provides a suitable operational framework for research on international activities of sub-national entities or regions.Design/methodology/approachThe paper is carried out on the basis of a theoretical framework proposed by the author. First, the dependent variable is defined. Then, domestic structure is broken down into four variables, including legal grounds, the level of autonomy, the type of intergovernmental relations and institutionalization. A comparative method is used to examine the validity of the theoretical framework.FindingsThe paper finds out that domestic structural forces influence level and form of SFP with some regularity. The influence of these forces on SFP can be explained, as they recur and have such consistent effects that they create patterns and regularities in SFP. Such regularities can be detected through systematic analysis.Originality/valueThe topic of SFP is relatively controversial because of academic debate over international agency of substate actors. However, it is a worthwhile subject of research, as it has the potential to revolutionize research in foreign policy analysis. Moreover, the phenomenon of SFP is in need of theorizing and comparison as the literature on SFP is still in its infancy.

scholarly journals Strategi Luar Negeri Dubai Menjadi Sebuah Peradaban Modern (Melalui Kebijakan Luar Negerinya)

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-68
Author(s):  
Nindyo Setiawan
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Middle East ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
East Region ◽  
Oil Resources ◽  
Class Level ◽  
World Class ◽  
Middle East Region

Located in the Middle East region, Dubai has to face the reality to compete with other countries in a business that only consists of the oil market. However, it was predicted that in the year of 2005, Dubai’s oil resources will be run out. After the establishment of United Arab Emirates (UAE), Dubai has slowly shown its progress significantly. Started as a desert civilization who didn’t have anything into a metropolitan country with all of the majesties which is considered as a world class level, often called as the Singapore of the Middle East. However, the success of Dubai can't be separated from the foreign policy created by its leader, Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum who is often called as the CEO of Dubai. After pointed as the leader of Dubai Defense Force by his father, Sheikh Rashid, Sheikh Mohammed began to help his father. He finally took the position as Emir of Dubai in 2006 after his brother Maktoum bin Rashid Al Maktoum died. Through this paper, the writer is going explore the foreign policy created by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum. The analysis itself is going to use Idiosyncratic Theory created by Margareth Hermann as a theoretical framework.

scholarly journals Portugal como Estado-Pivô ecuménico da União Europeia: O caso das cimeiras internacionais nas presidências portuguesas

2020 ◽  
pp. 59-76
Author(s):  
Pedro Emanuel Mendes ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
External Relations ◽  
International Image ◽  
Central Argument ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

This article develops an analysis of the impact of the historical ecumenical pattern of portuguese foreign policy on the European Union’s external relations. Its main objective is to identify Portugal’s influence on developing the European Union’s (eu) external relations, namely the holding of international summits in the framework of the portuguese eu presidencies. The article is structured in two main parts. First, the article theorises Portugal’s role as a Pivot State in the eu’s external relations, underlining Portugal’s current foreign policy’s identity and normative characteristics. Secondly, the article presents an analysis of Portugal’s role in the organisation of international summits. Its central argument concerns the explanation of Portugal’s contribution to the eu in terms of European foreign policy, namely in the sophistication of the eu’s external relations and its international image.

Economic Sanction as Foreign Policy

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoshiharu Kobayashi
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Economic Sanctions ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
The Other ◽  
Economic Sanction ◽  
Large N ◽  
Growing Body ◽  
Economic Relationship ◽  
The 1960S

Economic sanctions are an attempt by states to coerce a change in the policy of another state by restricting their economic relationship with the latter. Between, roughly, the 1960s–1980s, the question dominating the study of sanctions was whether they are an effective tool of foreign policy. Since the 1990s, however, with the introduction of large-N datasets, scholars have turned to more systematic examinations of previously little explored questions, such as when and how sanctions work, when and why states employ sanctions, and why some sanctions last longer than others. Two dominant perspectives, one based on strategic logic and the other on domestic politics, have emerged, providing starkly different answers to these questions. A growing body of evidence lends support to both strategic and domestic politics perspectives, but also points to areas in which they fall short. To complement these shortcomings, a new direction for research is to unite these perspectives into a single theoretical framework.

Failing to Learn

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alastair Stark
Keyword(s):  
Public Policy ◽  
Research Design ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Policy Learning ◽  
The Public ◽  
Conventional View ◽  
Public Inquiry ◽  
Central Argument

This chapter provides the reader with an introduction to the book’s fundamentals. It begins with a challenge to the conventional view that public inquiries are ineffective, which stresses that inquiry scholarship has simply not been rigorous enough to justify that position. The book’s response to that lack of rigour, in the form of its research design and theoretical framework, is then set out and justified. Thereafter three outputs are summarized as the book’s main contributions. First, an updated conceptual account of what the public inquiry is in relation to contemporary public policy and governance. Second, a central argument that inquiries produce certain types of policy learning that reduce our vulnerability to future crises. Finally, the identification of a series of factors that influence inquiry success and failure.

Subjective Probability and International Politics

2019 ◽  
pp. 51-68
Author(s):  
Jeffrey A. Friedman
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Subjective Probability ◽  
International Politics ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Policy Analyst ◽  
Subjective Judgments ◽  
Osama Bin Laden ◽  
Theoretical Foundations

This chapter explores the theoretical foundations of assessing uncertainty in international politics. It begins by explaining that virtually all important assessments of uncertainty in international politics are inherently subjective. The chapter’s second section explains how it is possible to believe that these subjective judgments are meaningless, but that this argument carries logical implications that no foreign policy analyst could accept. The chapter’s third section demonstrates that, conditional on believing that assessments of subjective probability contain any meaningful insight, it is always possible to express that insight in clear and structured ways, including through the use of numeric percentages. The chapter shows how its theoretical framework can help to resolve difficult analytic problems, focusing in particular on debates among U.S. intelligence analysts about the chances that Osama bin Laden was living in Abbottabad, Pakistan, in the spring of 2011.

Legitimacy, Gravity, and Global Community

2020 ◽  
pp. 9-33
Author(s):  
Margaret M. deGuzman
Keyword(s):  
Criminal Law ◽  
Global Justice ◽  
International Criminal ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
International Criminal Law ◽  
Global Community ◽  
Central Argument ◽  
Global Values

This chapter provides a theoretical framework for the book’s central argument that the concept of gravity should be reconceived as a function of values and goals to promote the legitimacy of international criminal law. It does so by: (1) explaining how the book uses the concept of legitimacy; (2) describing the pervasive goal-independent approach to gravity as a justification for regime decisions, and explaining the proposed reconceptualization; (3) elaborating a theory of international criminal law as both a tool, and constructor, of the global justice community; and (4) suggesting some of the global values and goals that ought to guide regime decisions.

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