scholarly journals Variability, timescales, and nonlinearity in climate responses to black carbon emissions

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 2405-2420 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Yang ◽  
Steven J. Smith ◽  
Hailong Wang ◽  
Catrin M. Mills ◽  
Philip J. Rasch
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Transient Temperature ◽  
Quasi Equilibrium ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Temperature Responses ◽  
Climate Responses

Abstract. Black carbon (BC) particles exert a potentially large warming influence on the Earth system. Reductions in BC emissions have attracted attention as a possible means to moderate near-term temperature changes. For the first time, we evaluate regional climate responses, nonlinearity, and short-term transient responses to BC emission perturbations in the Arctic, midlatitudes, and globally based on a comprehensive set of emission-driven experiments using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Surface temperature responses to BC emissions are complex, with surface warming over land from midlatitude BC perturbations partially offset by ocean cooling. Climate responses do not scale linearly with emissions. While stronger BC emission perturbations have a higher burden efficiency, their temperature sensitivity is lower. BC impacts temperature much faster than greenhouse gas forcing, with transient temperature responses in the Arctic and midlatitudes approaching a quasi-equilibrium state with a timescale of 2–3 years. We find large variability in BC-induced climate changes due to background model noise. As a result, removing present-day BC emissions results in discernible surface temperature changes for only limited regions of the globe. In order to better understand the climatic impacts of BC emissions, both the drivers of nonlinear responses and response variability need to be assessed across climate models.

scholarly journals Variability, timescales, and non-linearity in climate responses to black carbon emissions

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Yang ◽  
Steven J. Smith ◽  
Hailong Wang ◽  
Catrin M. Mills ◽  
Philip J. Rasch
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Transient Temperature ◽  
Quasi Equilibrium ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Temperature Responses ◽  
Climate Responses

Abstract. Black carbon (BC) particles exert a potentially large warming influence on the Earth system. Reductions in BC emissions have attracted attention as a possible means to moderate near-term temperature changes. For the first time, we evaluate regional climate responses, non-linearity, and short-term transient responses to BC emission perturbations in the Arctic, mid-latitudes, and globally based on a comprehensive set of emission-driven experiments using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Surface temperature responses to BC emissions are complex, with surface warming over land from mid-latitude BC perturbations partially offset by ocean cooling. Climate responses do not scale linearity with emissions. While stronger BC emission perturbations have a higher burden efficiency, their temperature sensitivity is lower. BC impacts temperature much faster than greenhouse gas forcing, with transient temperature responses in the Arctic and mid-latitudes approaching a quasi-equilibrium state with a timescale of 2–3 years. We find large variability in BC-induced climate changes due to background model noise. As a result, perturbing present-day BC emission levels results in no discernible net global-average surface temperature signal. In order to better understand the climatic impacts of BC emissions, both the drivers of non-linear responses and response variability need to be assessed across climate models.

scholarly journals How Asian aerosols impact regional surface temperatures across the globe

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joonas Merikanto ◽  
Kalle Nordling ◽  
Petri Räisänen ◽  
Jouni Räisänen ◽  
Declan O'Donnell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Temperature Effects ◽  
Energy Transport ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽  
Atmospheric Energy ◽  
Atmospheric Energy Transport ◽  
Temperature Responses ◽  
Global Surface

Abstract. South and East Asian anthropogenic aerosols mostly reside in an air mass extending from the Indian Ocean to the North Pacific. Yet the surface temperature effects of Asian aerosols spread across the whole globe. Here, we remove Asian anthropogenic aerosols from two independent climate models (ECHAM6.1 and NorESM1) using the same representation of aerosols via MACv2-SP (a simple plume implementation of the 2nd version of the Max Planck Institute Aerosol Climatology). We then robustly decompose the global distribution of surface temperature responses into contributions from atmospheric energy flux changes. We find that the horizontal atmospheric energy transport strongly moderates the surface temperature response over the regions where Asian aerosols reside. Atmospheric energy transport and changes in clear-sky longwave radiation redistribute the temperature effects efficiently across the Northern hemisphere, and to a lesser extent also over the Southern hemisphere. The model-mean global surface temperature response to Asian anthropogenic aerosol removal is 0.26 ± 0.04 °C (0.22 ± 0.03 for ECHAM6.1 and 0.30 ± 0.03 °C for NorESM1) of warming. Model-to-model differences in global surface temperature response mainly arise from differences in longwave cloud (0.01 ± 0.01 for ECHAM6.1 and 0.05 ± 0.01 °C for NorESM1) and shortwave cloud (0.03 ± 0.03 for ECHAM6.1 and 0.07 ± 0.02 °C for NorESM1) responses. The differences in cloud responses between the models also dominate the differences in regional temperature responses. In both models, the Northern hemispheric surface warming amplifies towards the Arctic, where the total temperature response is highly seasonal and weakest during the Arctic summer. We estimate that under a strong Asian aerosol mitigation policy tied with strong climate mitigation (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1-1.9) the Asian aerosol reductions can add around 8 years' worth of current day global warming during the next few decades.

scholarly journals Classification of CMIP5 Future Climate Responses by the Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Changes

SOLA ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (0) ◽  
pp. 167-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryo Mizuta ◽  
Osamu Arakawa ◽  
Tomoaki Ose ◽  
Shoji Kusunoki ◽  
Hirokazu Endo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Tropical Sea ◽  
Climate Responses

scholarly journals Historical black carbon deposition in the Canadian High Arctic: A 190-year long ice-core record from Devon Island

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian M. Zdanowicz ◽  
Bernadette C. Proemse ◽  
Ross Edwards ◽  
Wang Feiteng ◽  
Chad M. Hogan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Black Carbon ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Anthropogenic Sources ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Coal Burning ◽  
Ice Cap ◽  
Devon Ice Cap ◽  
Ice Core Record

Abstract. Black carbon aerosol (BC) emitted from natural and anthropogenic sources (e.g., wildfires, coal burning) can contribute to magnify climate warming at high latitudes by darkening snow- and ice-covered surfaces, thus lowering their albedo. Modeling the atmospheric transport and deposition of BC to the Arctic is therefore important, and historical archives of BC accumulation in polar ice can help to validate such modeling efforts. Here we present a 190-year ice-core record of refractory BC (rBC) deposition on Devon ice cap, Canada, spanning calendar years 1810–1990, the first such record ever developed from the Canadian Arctic. The estimated mean deposition flux of rBC on Devon ice cap for 1963–1990 is 0.2 mg m−2 a−1, which is low compared to most Greenland ice-core sites over the same period. The Devon ice cap rBC record also differs from existing Greenland records in that it shows no evidence of a substantial increase in rBC deposition during the early-mid 20th century, which, for Greenland, has been attributed to mid-latitude coal burning emissions. The deposition of other contaminants such as sulfate and Pb increased on Devon ice cap in the 20th century but without a concomitant rise in rBC. Part of the difference with Greenland may be due to local factors such as wind scouring of winter snow at the coring site on Devon ice cap. Air back-trajectory analyses also suggest that Devon ice cap receives BC from more distant North American and Eurasian sources than Greenland, and aerosol mixing and removal during long-range transport over the Arctic Ocean likely masks some of the specific BC source-receptor relationships. Findings from this study underscore the large variability in BC aerosol deposition across the Arctic region that may arise from different transport patterns. This variability needs to be accounted for when estimating the large-scale albedo lowering effect of BC deposition on Arctic snow/ice.

scholarly journals Role of climate model dynamics in estimated climate responses to anthropogenic aerosols

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (15) ◽  
pp. 9969-9987 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kalle Nordling ◽  
Hannele Korhonen ◽  
Petri Räisänen ◽  
Muzaffer Ege Alper ◽  
Petteri Uotila ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Model Aerosol ◽  
Regional Temperature ◽  
Temperature Responses ◽  
Climate Responses

Abstract. Significant discrepancies remain in estimates of climate impacts of anthropogenic aerosols between different general circulation models (GCMs). Here, we demonstrate that eliminating differences in model aerosol or radiative forcing fields results in close agreement in simulated globally averaged temperature and precipitation responses in the studied GCMs. However, it does not erase the differences in regional responses. We carry out experiments of equilibrium climate response to modern-day anthropogenic aerosols using an identical representation of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and the first indirect effect of aerosols, MACv2-SP (a simple plume implementation of the second version of the Max Planck Institute Aerosol CLimatology), in two independent climate models (NorESM, Norwegian Earth System Model, and ECHAM6). We find consistent global average temperature responses of −0.48 (±0.02) and −0.50 (±0.03) K and precipitation responses of −1.69 (±0.04) % and −1.79 (±0.05) % in NorESM1 and ECHAM6, respectively, compared to modern-day equilibrium climate without anthropogenic aerosols. However, significant differences remain between the two GCMs' regional temperature responses around the Arctic circle and the Equator and precipitation responses in the tropics. The scatter in the simulated globally averaged responses is small in magnitude when compared against literature data from modern GCMs using model intrinsic aerosols but same aerosol emissions −(0.5–1.1) K and −(1.5–3.1) % for temperature and precipitation, respectively). The Pearson correlation of regional temperature (precipitation) response in these literature model experiments with intrinsic aerosols is 0.79 (0.34). The corresponding correlation coefficient for NorESM1 and ECHAM6 runs with identical aerosols is 0.78 (0.41). The lack of improvement in correlation coefficients between models with identical aerosols and models with intrinsic aerosols implies that the spatial distribution of regional climate responses is not improved via homogenizing the aerosol descriptions in the models. Rather, differences in the atmospheric dynamic and snow/sea ice cover responses dominate the differences in regional climate responses. Hence, even if we would have perfect aerosol descriptions inside the global climate models, uncertainty arising from the differences in circulation responses between the models would likely still result in a significant uncertainty in regional climate responses.

scholarly journals Siberian Arctic black carbon: gas flaring and wildfire impact

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olga B. Popovicheva ◽  
Nikolaos Evangeliou ◽  
Vasilii O. Kobelev ◽  
Marina A. Chichaeva ◽  
Konstantinos Eleftheriadis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Black Carbon ◽  
Biomass Burning ◽  
Western Siberia ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Cold Period ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Transport Modelling ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Gas Flaring ◽  
Siberian Arctic

Abstract. As explained in the latest Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) report released in early 2021, the Arctic has warmed three times more quickly than the planet as a whole, and faster than previously thought. The Siberian Arctic is of great interest largely because observations are sparse or largely lacking. A research aerosol station has been developed on the Bely Island, Kara Sea, in Western Siberia. Measurements of equivalent black carbon (EBC) concentrations were carried out at the “Island Bely” station continuously from August 2019 to November 2020. The source origin of the measured EBC, and the main contributing sources were assessed using atmospheric transport modelling coupled with the most updated emission inventories for anthropogenic and biomass burning sources of BC. The obtained BC climatology for BC during the period of measurements showed a seasonal variation comprising the highest concentrations between December and April (60 ± 92 ng/m3) and the lowest between June and September (18 ± 72 ng/m3), typical of the Arctic Haze seasonality reported elsewhere. When air masses arrived at the station through the biggest oil and gas extraction regions of Kazakhstan, Volga-Ural, Komi, Nenets and Western Siberia, BC contribution from gas flaring dominated over domestic, industrial, and traffic sectors, ranging from 47 to 68 %, with a maximum contribution in January. When air was transported from Europe during the cold season, emissions from transportation became important. Accordingly, shipping emissions increased due to the touristic cruise activities and the ice retreat in summertime. Biomass burning (BB) played the biggest role between April and October, contributing 81 % at maximum in June. Long-range transport of BB aerosols appear to induce large variability to the Absorption Ångström Exponent (AAE) with values ranging from 1.2 to 1.4. As regards to the continental contribution to surface BC at the “Island Bely” station, Russian emissions dominated during the whole year, while European and Asian emissions contributed up to 20 % in the cold period. Quantification of several pollution episodes showed an increasing trend in surface concentrations and frequency during the cold period as the station is directly in the Siberian gateway of the highest anthropogenic pollution to the Russian Arctic.

scholarly journals Responses of Arctic Black Carbon and Surface Temperature to Multi-Region Emission Reductions: an HTAP2 Ensemble Modeling Study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Na Zhao ◽  
Xinyi Dong ◽  
Joshua S. Fu ◽  
Marianne Tronstad Lund ◽  
Kengo Sudo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
Task Force ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ensemble Modeling ◽  
Emission Reductions ◽  
Transport Pathways ◽  
Source Regions ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Black carbon (BC) emissions play an important role in regional climate change of the Arctic. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of long-range transport from regions outside the Arctic as BC emissions from local sources in the Arctic were relatively small. The Task Force Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase2 (HTAP2) set up a series of simulation scenarios to investigate the response of BC in a given region to different source regions. This study investigated the responses of Arctic BC concentrations and surface temperature to 20 % anthropogenic emission reductions from six regions in 2010 within the framework of HTAP2 based on ensemble modeling results. It was found that the emissions from East Asia (EAS) had most (18.1 %–51.4 %) significant impact on the Arctic while the monthly contributions from Europe, Middle East, North America, Russia Belarus Ukraine, and South Asia were 20.1 %–49.9 %, 0.02 %–0.9 %, 8.3 %–19.3 %, 5.4 %–18.1 %, and 3.1 %–7.7 %, respectively. The responses of the vertical profiles of the Arctic BC to the six regions were found to be different due to multiple transport pathways. The response of the Arctic BC to emission reductions of six source regions became less significant with the increase of the latitude. The benefit of BC emission reductions in terms of slowing down surface warming in the Arctic was evaluated by using Absolute Regional Temperature-change Potential (ARTP). Compared to the response of global temperature to BC emission reductions, the response of Arctic temperature was substantially more sensitive, highlighting the need for curbing global BC emissions.

scholarly journals How Asian aerosols impact regional surface temperatures across the globe

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (8) ◽  
pp. 5865-5881
Author(s):  
Joonas Merikanto ◽  
Kalle Nordling ◽  
Petri Räisänen ◽  
Jouni Räisänen ◽  
Declan O'Donnell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Temperature Effects ◽  
Energy Transport ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽  
Atmospheric Energy ◽  
Atmospheric Energy Transport ◽  
Temperature Responses ◽  
Global Surface

Abstract. South and East Asian anthropogenic aerosols mostly reside in an air mass extending from the Indian Ocean to the North Pacific. Yet the surface temperature effects of Asian aerosols spread across the whole globe. Here, we remove Asian anthropogenic aerosols from two independent climate models (ECHAM6.1 and NorESM1) using the same representation of aerosols via MACv2-SP (a simple plume implementation of the second version of the Max Planck Institute Aerosol Climatology). We then robustly decompose the global distribution of surface temperature responses into contributions from atmospheric energy flux changes. We find that the horizontal atmospheric energy transport strongly moderates the surface temperature response over the regions where Asian aerosols reside. Atmospheric energy transport and changes in clear-sky longwave radiation redistribute the temperature effects efficiently across the Northern Hemisphere and to a lesser extent also over the Southern Hemisphere. The model-mean global surface temperature response to Asian anthropogenic aerosol removal is 0.26±0.04 ∘C (0.22±0.03 for ECHAM6.1 and 0.30±0.03 ∘C for NorESM1) of warming. Model-to-model differences in global surface temperature response mainly arise from differences in longwave cloud (0.01±0.01 for ECHAM6.1 and 0.05±0.01 ∘C for NorESM1) and shortwave cloud (0.03±0.03 for ECHAM6.1 and 0.07±0.02 ∘C for NorESM1) responses. The differences in cloud responses between the models also dominate the differences in regional temperature responses. In both models, the northern-hemispheric surface warming amplifies towards the Arctic, where the total temperature response is highly seasonal and weakest during the Arctic summer. We estimate that under a strong Asian aerosol mitigation policy tied with strong climate mitigation (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1-1.9) the Asian aerosol reductions can add around 8 years' worth of current-day global warming during the next few decades.

scholarly journals Responses of Arctic black carbon and surface temperature to multi-region emission reductions: a Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase 2 (HTAP2) ensemble modeling study

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
pp. 8637-8654
Author(s):  
Na Zhao ◽  
Xinyi Dong ◽  
Kan Huang ◽  
Joshua S. Fu ◽  
Marianne Tronstad Lund ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ensemble Modeling ◽  
Phase 2 ◽  
Emission Reductions ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Source Regions ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Black carbon (BC) emissions play an important role in regional climate change in the Arctic. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of long-range transport from regions outside the Arctic as BC emissions from local sources in the Arctic were relatively small. The task force Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase 2 (HTAP2) set up a series of simulation scenarios to investigate the response of BC in a given region to different source regions. This study investigated the responses of Arctic BC concentrations and surface temperature to 20 % anthropogenic emission reductions from six regions in 2010 within the framework of HTAP2 based on ensemble modeling results. Emission reductions from East Asia (EAS) had the most (monthly contributions: 0.2–1.5 ng m−3) significant impact on the Arctic near-surface BC concentrations, while the monthly contributions from Europe (EUR), Middle East (MDE), North America (NAM), Russia–Belarus–Ukraine (RBU), and South Asia (SAS) were 0.2–1.0, 0.001–0.01, 0.1–0.3, 0.1–0.7, and 0.0–0.2 ng m−3, respectively. The responses of the vertical profiles of the Arctic BC to the six regions were found to be different due to multiple transport pathways. Emission reductions from NAM, RBU, EUR, and EAS mainly influenced the BC concentrations in the low troposphere of the Arctic, while most of the BC in the upper troposphere of the Arctic derived from SAS. The response of the Arctic BC to emission reductions in six source regions became less significant with the increase in the latitude. The benefit of BC emission reductions in terms of slowing down surface warming in the Arctic was evaluated by using absolute regional temperature change potential (ARTP). Compared to the response of global temperature to BC emission reductions, the response of Arctic temperature was substantially more sensitive, highlighting the need for curbing global BC emissions.

scholarly journals Understanding the surface temperature response and its uncertainty to CO<sub>2</sub>, CH<sub>4</sub>, black carbon, and sulfate

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (19) ◽  
pp. 14941-14958
Author(s):  
Kalle Nordling ◽  
Hannele Korhonen ◽  
Jouni Räisänen ◽  
Antti-Ilari Partanen ◽  
Bjørn H. Samset ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Temperature Responses ◽  
Global Surface

Abstract. Understanding the regional surface temperature responses to different anthropogenic climate forcing agents, such as greenhouse gases and aerosols, is crucial for understanding past and future regional climate changes. In modern climate models, the regional temperature responses vary greatly for all major forcing agents, but the causes of this variability are poorly understood. Here, we analyze how changes in atmospheric and oceanic energy fluxes due to perturbations in different anthropogenic climate forcing agents lead to changes in global and regional surface temperatures. We use climate model data on idealized perturbations in four major anthropogenic climate forcing agents (CO2, CH4, sulfate, and black carbon aerosols) from Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) climate experiments for six climate models (CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES, NCAR-CESM1-CAM4, NorESM1, MIROC-SPRINTARS, GISS-E2). Particularly, we decompose the regional energy budget contributions to the surface temperature responses due to changes in longwave and shortwave fluxes under clear-sky and cloudy conditions, surface albedo changes, and oceanic and atmospheric energy transport. We also analyze the regional model-to-model temperature response spread due to each of these components. The global surface temperature response stems from changes in longwave emissivity for greenhouse gases (CO2 and CH4) and mainly from changes in shortwave clear-sky fluxes for aerosols (sulfate and black carbon). The global surface temperature response normalized by effective radiative forcing is nearly the same for all forcing agents (0.63, 0.54, 0.57, 0.61 K W−1 m2). While the main physical processes driving global temperature responses vary between forcing agents, for all forcing agents the model-to-model spread in temperature responses is dominated by differences in modeled changes in longwave clear-sky emissivity. Furthermore, in polar regions for all forcing agents the differences in surface albedo change is a key contributor to temperature responses and its spread. For black carbon, the modeled differences in temperature response due to shortwave clear-sky radiation are also important in the Arctic. Regional model-to-model differences due to changes in shortwave and longwave cloud radiative effect strongly modulate each other. For aerosols, clouds play a major role in the model spread of regional surface temperature responses. In regions with strong aerosol forcing, the model-to-model differences arise from shortwave clear-sky responses and are strongly modulated by combined temperature responses to oceanic and atmospheric heat transport in the models.

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