scholarly journals Responses of Arctic Black Carbon and Surface Temperature to Multi-Region Emission Reductions: an HTAP2 Ensemble Modeling Study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Na Zhao ◽  
Xinyi Dong ◽  
Joshua S. Fu ◽  
Marianne Tronstad Lund ◽  
Kengo Sudo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
Task Force ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ensemble Modeling ◽  
Emission Reductions ◽  
Transport Pathways ◽  
Source Regions ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Black carbon (BC) emissions play an important role in regional climate change of the Arctic. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of long-range transport from regions outside the Arctic as BC emissions from local sources in the Arctic were relatively small. The Task Force Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase2 (HTAP2) set up a series of simulation scenarios to investigate the response of BC in a given region to different source regions. This study investigated the responses of Arctic BC concentrations and surface temperature to 20 % anthropogenic emission reductions from six regions in 2010 within the framework of HTAP2 based on ensemble modeling results. It was found that the emissions from East Asia (EAS) had most (18.1 %–51.4 %) significant impact on the Arctic while the monthly contributions from Europe, Middle East, North America, Russia Belarus Ukraine, and South Asia were 20.1 %–49.9 %, 0.02 %–0.9 %, 8.3 %–19.3 %, 5.4 %–18.1 %, and 3.1 %–7.7 %, respectively. The responses of the vertical profiles of the Arctic BC to the six regions were found to be different due to multiple transport pathways. The response of the Arctic BC to emission reductions of six source regions became less significant with the increase of the latitude. The benefit of BC emission reductions in terms of slowing down surface warming in the Arctic was evaluated by using Absolute Regional Temperature-change Potential (ARTP). Compared to the response of global temperature to BC emission reductions, the response of Arctic temperature was substantially more sensitive, highlighting the need for curbing global BC emissions.

scholarly journals Responses of Arctic black carbon and surface temperature to multi-region emission reductions: a Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase 2 (HTAP2) ensemble modeling study

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
pp. 8637-8654
Author(s):  
Na Zhao ◽  
Xinyi Dong ◽  
Kan Huang ◽  
Joshua S. Fu ◽  
Marianne Tronstad Lund ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ensemble Modeling ◽  
Phase 2 ◽  
Emission Reductions ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Source Regions ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Black carbon (BC) emissions play an important role in regional climate change in the Arctic. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of long-range transport from regions outside the Arctic as BC emissions from local sources in the Arctic were relatively small. The task force Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase 2 (HTAP2) set up a series of simulation scenarios to investigate the response of BC in a given region to different source regions. This study investigated the responses of Arctic BC concentrations and surface temperature to 20 % anthropogenic emission reductions from six regions in 2010 within the framework of HTAP2 based on ensemble modeling results. Emission reductions from East Asia (EAS) had the most (monthly contributions: 0.2–1.5 ng m−3) significant impact on the Arctic near-surface BC concentrations, while the monthly contributions from Europe (EUR), Middle East (MDE), North America (NAM), Russia–Belarus–Ukraine (RBU), and South Asia (SAS) were 0.2–1.0, 0.001–0.01, 0.1–0.3, 0.1–0.7, and 0.0–0.2 ng m−3, respectively. The responses of the vertical profiles of the Arctic BC to the six regions were found to be different due to multiple transport pathways. Emission reductions from NAM, RBU, EUR, and EAS mainly influenced the BC concentrations in the low troposphere of the Arctic, while most of the BC in the upper troposphere of the Arctic derived from SAS. The response of the Arctic BC to emission reductions in six source regions became less significant with the increase in the latitude. The benefit of BC emission reductions in terms of slowing down surface warming in the Arctic was evaluated by using absolute regional temperature change potential (ARTP). Compared to the response of global temperature to BC emission reductions, the response of Arctic temperature was substantially more sensitive, highlighting the need for curbing global BC emissions.

scholarly journals Parameterization of black carbon aging in the OsloCTM2 and implications for regional transport to the Arctic

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (15) ◽  
pp. 6999-7014 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. T. Lund ◽  
T. Berntsen
Keyword(s):  
Black Carbon ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Seasonal Pattern ◽  
Particle Interaction ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Source Regions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Snow And Ice

Abstract. A critical parameter for the atmospheric lifetime of black carbon (BC) aerosols, and hence for the range over which the particles can be transported, is the aging time, i.e. the time before the aerosols become available for removal by wet deposition. This study compares two different parameterizations of BC aging in the chemistry transport model OsloCTM2: (i) A bulk parameterization (BULK) where aging is represented by a constant transfer to hydrophilic mode and (ii) a microphysical module (M7) where aging occurs through particle interaction and where the particle size distribution is accounted for. We investigate the effect of including microphysics on the distribution of BC globally and in the Arctic. We also focus on the impact on estimated contributions to Arctic BC from selected emission source regions. With more detailed microphysics (M7) there are regional and seasonal variations in aging. The aging is slower during high-latitude winter, when the production of sulfate is lower, than in lower latitudes and during summer. High-latitude concentrations of BC are significantly increased during winter compared to BULK. Furthermore, M7 improves the model performance at Arctic surface stations, especially the accumulation of BC during winter. A proper representation of vertical BC load is important because the climate effects of the aerosols depend on their altitude in the atmosphere. Comparisons with measured vertical profiles indicate that the model generally overestimates the BC load, particularly at higher altitudes, and this overestimation is exacerbated with M7 compared to BULK. Both parameterizations show that north of 65° N emissions in Europe contribute most to atmospheric BC concentration and to BC in snow and ice. M7 leads to a pronounced seasonal pattern in contributions and contributions from Europe and Russia increase strongly during winter relative to BULK. There is generally an increase in the amount of BC in snow and ice with M7 compared to BULK. However, in regions where the concentration of BC in snow is strongly underestimated with BULK compared to measurements, this increase with M7 is not sufficient to significantly improve the comparison.

scholarly journals Interannual Variability and Trends in Sea Surface Temperature, Lower and Middle Atmosphere Temperature at Different Latitudes for 1980–2019

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 454
Author(s):  
Andrew R. Jakovlev ◽  
Sergei P. Smyshlyaev ◽  
Vener Y. Galin
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The Impact

The influence of sea-surface temperature (SST) on the lower troposphere and lower stratosphere temperature in the tropical, middle, and polar latitudes is studied for 1980–2019 based on the MERRA2, ERA5, and Met Office reanalysis data, and numerical modeling with a chemistry-climate model (CCM) of the lower and middle atmosphere. The variability of SST is analyzed according to Met Office and ERA5 data, while the variability of atmospheric temperature is investigated according to MERRA2 and ERA5 data. Analysis of sea surface temperature trends based on reanalysis data revealed that a significant positive SST trend of about 0.1 degrees per decade is observed over the globe. In the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, the trend (about 0.2 degrees per decade) is 2 times higher than the global average, and 5 times higher than in the Southern Hemisphere (about 0.04 degrees per decade). At polar latitudes, opposite SST trends are observed in the Arctic (positive) and Antarctic (negative). The impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon on the temperature of the lower and middle atmosphere in the middle and polar latitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres is discussed. To assess the relative influence of SST, CO2, and other greenhouse gases’ variability on the temperature of the lower troposphere and lower stratosphere, numerical calculations with a CCM were performed for several scenarios of accounting for the SST and carbon dioxide variability. The results of numerical experiments with a CCM demonstrated that the influence of SST prevails in the troposphere, while for the stratosphere, an increase in the CO2 content plays the most important role.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of black carbon concentrations and climate impact to aging and scavenging

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marianne T. Lund ◽  
Terje K. Berntsen ◽  
Bjørn H. Samset
Keyword(s):  
Nitric Acid ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Vertical Profiles ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Model Measurement ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Despite recent improvements, significant uncertainties in global modeling of black carbon (BC) aerosols persist, posing important challenges for the design and evaluation of effective climate mitigation strategies targeted at BC emission reductions. Here we investigate the sensitivity of BC concentrations in the chemistry-transport model OsloCTM2 with the microphysical aerosol parameterization M7 (OsloCTM2-M7) to parameters controlling aerosol aging and scavenging. We focus on Arctic surface concentrations and remote region BC vertical profiles, and introduce a novel treatment of condensation of nitric acid on BC. The OsloCTM2-M7 underestimates annual averaged BC surface concentrations, with a mean normalized bias of −0.55. The seasonal cycle and magnitude of Arctic BC surface concentrations is improved compared to previous OsloCTM2 studies, but model-measurement discrepancies during spring remain. High-altitude BC over the Pacific is overestimated compared with measurements from the HIPPO campaigns. We find that a shorter global BC lifetime improves the agreement with HIPPO, in line with other recent studies. Several processes can achieve this, including allowing for convective scavenging of hydrophobic BC and reducing the amount of soluble material required for aging. Simultaneously, the concentrations in the Arctic are reduced, resulting in poorer agreement with measurements in part of the region. A first step towards inclusion of aging by nitrate in OsloCTM2-M7 is made by allowing for condensation of nitric acid on BC. This results in a faster aging and reduced lifetime, and in turn to a better agreement with the HIPPO measurements. On the other hand, model-measurement discrepancies in the Arctic are exacerbated. Work to further improve this parameterization is needed. The impact on global mean radiative forcing (RF) and surface temperature response (TS) in our experiments is estimated. Compared to the baseline, decreases in global mean direct RF on the order of 10–30 % of the total pre-industrial to present BC direct RF is estimated for the experiments that result in the largest changes in BC concentrations. We show that globally tuning parameters related to BC aging and scavenging can improve the representation of BC vertical profiles in the OsloCTM2-M7 compared with observations. Our results also show that such improvements can result from changes in several processes and often depend on assumptions about uncertain parameters such as the BC ice nucleating efficiency and the change in hygroscopicity with aging. It is also important to be aware of potential tradeoffs in model performance between different regions. Other important sources of uncertainty, particularly for Arctic BC, such as model resolution has not been investigated here. Our results underline the importance of more observations and experimental data to improve process understanding and thus further constrain models.

scholarly journals Atmospheric black carbon and sulfate concentrations in Northeast Greenland

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (16) ◽  
pp. 9681-9692 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Massling ◽  
I. E. Nielsen ◽  
D. Kristensen ◽  
J. H. Christensen ◽  
L. L. Sørensen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Black Carbon ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Seasonal Pattern ◽  
Maximum Level ◽  
High Arctic ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Summer Period ◽  
Transport Pathways ◽  
Inorganic Matter

Abstract. Measurements of equivalent black carbon (EBC) in aerosols at the high Arctic field site Villum Research Station (VRS) at Station Nord in North Greenland showed a seasonal variation in EBC concentrations with a maximum in winter and spring at ground level. Average measured concentrations were about 0.067 ± 0.071 for the winter and 0.011 ± 0.009 for the summer period. These data were obtained using a multi-angle absorption photometer (MAAP). A similar seasonal pattern was found for sulfate concentrations with a maximum level during winter and spring analyzed by ion chromatography. Here, measured average concentrations were about 0.485 ± 0.397 for the winter and 0.112 ± 0.072 for the summer period. A correlation between EBC and sulfate concentrations was observed over the years 2011 to 2013 stating a correlation coefficient of R2 = 0.72. This finding gives the hint that most likely transport of primary emitted BC particles to the Arctic was accompanied by aging of the aerosols through condensational processes. BC and sulfate are known to have only partly similar sources with respect to their transport pathways when reaching the high Arctic. Aging processes may have led to the formation of secondary inorganic matter and further transport of BC particles as cloud processing and further washout of particles is less likely based on the typically observed transport patterns of air masses arriving at VRS. Additionally, concentrations of EC (elemental carbon) based on a thermo-optical method were determined and compared to EBC measurements. EBC measurements were generally higher, but a correlation between EC and EBC resulted in a correlation coefficient of R2 = 0.64. Model estimates of the climate forcing due to BC in the Arctic are based on contributions of long-range transported BC during spring and summer. The measured concentrations were here compared with model results obtained by the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model, DEHM. Good agreement between measured and modeled concentrations of both EBC/BC and sulfate was observed. Also, the correlation between BC and sulfate concentrations was confirmed based on the model results observed over the years 2011 to 2013 stating a correlation coefficient of R2 = 0.74. The dominant source is found to be combustion of fossil fuel with biomass burning as a minor, albeit significant source.

scholarly journals Black carbon concentrations and mixing state in the Finnish Arctic

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (17) ◽  
pp. 10057-10070 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Raatikainen ◽  
D. Brus ◽  
A.-P. Hyvärinen ◽  
J. Svensson ◽  
E. Asmi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Black Carbon ◽  
Particle Diameter ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Mixing State ◽  
Core Mass ◽  
Source Regions ◽  
Mean Diameter ◽  
Absorbing Material ◽  
Optically Detected ◽  
Core Volume

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosol composition was measured using a Single Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) in the Finnish Arctic during winter 2011–2012. The Sammaltunturi measurement site at the Pallas GAW (Global Atmosphere Watch) station receives air masses from different source regions including the Arctic Ocean and continental Europe. The SP2 provides detailed information about mass distributions and mixing state of refractory black carbon (rBC). The measurements showed widely varying rBC mass concentrations (0–120 ng m−3), which were related to varying contributions of different source regions and aerosol removal processes. The rBC mass was log-normally distributed showing a relatively constant rBC core mass mean diameter with an average of 194 nm (75–655 nm sizing range). On average, the number fraction of particles containing rBC was 0.24 (integrated over 350–450 nm particle diameter range) and the average particle diameter to rBC core volume equivalent diameter ratio was 2.0 (averaged over particles with 150–200 nm rBC core volume equivalent diameters). These average numbers mean that the observed rBC core mass mean diameter is similar to those of aged particles, but the observed particles seem to have unusually high particle to rBC core diameter ratios. Comparison of the measured rBC mass concentration with that of the optically detected equivalent black carbon (eBC) using an Aethalometer and a MAAP showed that eBC was larger by a factor of five. The difference could not be fully explained without assuming that only a part of the optically detected light absorbing material is refractory and absorbs light at the wavelength used by the SP2. Finally, climate implications of five different black carbon mixing state representations were compared using the Mie approximation and simple direct radiative forcing efficiency calculations. These calculations showed that the observed mixing state means significantly lower warming effect or even a net cooling effect when compared with that of a homogenous aerosol containing the same amounts of black carbon and non-absorbing material.

scholarly journals Long-term trends of black carbon and sulphate aerosol in the Arctic: changes in atmospheric transport and source region emissions

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 12133-12184 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Hirdman ◽  
J. F. Burkhart ◽  
H. Sodemann ◽  
S. Eckhardt ◽  
A. Jefferson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Black Carbon ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Particle Dispersion ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Source Regions ◽  
Long Term Trends

Abstract. As a part of the IPY project POLARCAT (Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements and Models, of Climate, Chemistry, Aerosols and Transport) and building on previous work (Hirdman et al., 2010), this paper studies the long-term trends of both atmospheric transport as well as equivalent black carbon (EBC) and sulphate for the three Arctic stations Alert, Barrow and Zeppelin. We find a general downward trend in the measured EBC concentrations at all three stations, with a decrease of −2.1±0.4 ng m−3 yr−1 (for the years 1989–2008) and −1.4±0.8 ng m−3 yr−1 (2002–2009) at Alert and Zeppelin respectively. The decrease at Barrow is, however, not statistically significant. The measured sulphate concentrations show a decreasing trend at Alert and Zeppelin of −15±3 ng m−3 yr−1 (1985–2006) and −1.3±1.2 ng m−3 yr−1 (1990–2008) respectively, while the trend at Barrow is unclear. To reveal the influence of different source regions on these trends, we used a cluster analysis of the output of the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART run backward in time from the measurement stations. We have investigated to what extent variations in the atmospheric circulation, expressed as variations in the frequencies of the transport from four source regions with different emission rates, can explain the long-term trends in EBC and sulphate measured at these stations. We find that the long-term trend in the atmospheric circulation can only explain a minor fraction of the overall downward trend seen in the measurements of EBC (0.3–7.2%) and sulphate (0.3–5.3%) at the Arctic stations. The changes in emissions are dominant in explaining the trends. We find that the highest EBC and sulphate concentrations are associated with transport from Northern Eurasia and decreasing emissions in this region drive the downward trends. Northern Eurasia (cluster: NE, WNE and ENE) is the dominant emission source at all Arctic stations for both EBC and sulphate during most seasons. In wintertime, there are indications that the EBC emissions from the eastern parts of Northern Eurasia (ENE cluster) have increased over the last decade.

scholarly journals Aircraft observations of enhancement and depletion of black carbon mass in the springtime Arctic

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 15167-15196
Author(s):  
J. R. Spackman ◽  
R. S. Gao ◽  
W. D. Neff ◽  
J. P. Schwarz ◽  
L. A. Watts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
Biomass Burning ◽  
Boundary Layer Transition ◽  
Arctic Climate ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Vertical Profiles ◽  
Free Troposphere ◽  
Air Mass ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Understanding the processes controlling black carbon (BC) in the Arctic is crucial for evaluating the impact of anthropogenic and natural sources of BC on Arctic climate. Vertical profiles of BC mass were observed from the surface to near 7-km altitude in April 2008 using a Single-Particle Soot Photometer (SP2) during flights on the NOAA WP-3D research aircraft from Fairbanks, Alaska. These measurements were conducted during the NOAA-sponsored Aerosol, Radiation, and Cloud Processes affecting Arctic Climate (ARCPAC) project as part of POLARCAT, an International Polar Year (IPY) activity. In the free troposphere, the Arctic air mass was influenced by long-range transport from biomass-burning and anthropogenic source regions at lower latitudes especially during the latter part of the campaign. Maximum average BC mass loadings of 150 ng kg−1 were observed near 5.5-km altitude in the aged Arctic air mass. In biomass-burning plumes, BC was enhanced from near the top of the Arctic boundary layer (ABL) to 5.5 km compared to the aged Arctic air mass. At the bottom of some of the profiles, positive vertical gradients in BC were observed in the vicinity of open leads in the sea-ice. BC mass loadings increased by about a factor of two across the boundary layer transition in the ABL in these cases while carbon monoxide (CO) remained constant, evidence for depletion of BC in the ABL. BC mass loadings were positively correlated with O3 in ozone depletion events (ODEs) for all the observations in the ABL suggesting that BC was removed by dry deposition of BC on the snow or ice because molecular bromine, Br2, which photolyzes and catalytically destroys O3, is thought to be released near the open leads in regions of ice formation. We estimate the deposition flux of BC mass to the snow using a box model constrained by the vertical profiles of BC in the ABL. The open leads may increase vertical mixing in the ABL and entrainment of pollution from the free troposphere possibly enhancing the deposition of BC to the snow.

scholarly journals Long-range transport of black carbon to the Pacific Ocean and its dependence on aging timescale

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. 16945-16983 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Zhang ◽  
J. Liu ◽  
S. Tao ◽  
G. A. Ban-Weiss
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
Source Region ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Average Lifetime ◽  
Deposition Rates ◽  
Source Regions ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Pacific Ocean ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Improving the ability of global models to predict concentrations of black carbon (BC) over the Pacific Ocean is essential to evaluate the impact of BC on marine climate. In this study, we tag BC tracers from 13 source regions around the globe in a global chemical transport model MOZART-4. Numerous sensitivity simulations are carried out varying the aging timescale of BC emitted from each source region. The aging timescale for each source region is optimized by minimizing errors in vertical profiles of BC mass mixing ratios between simulations and HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO). For most HIPPO deployments, in the Northern Hemisphere, optimized aging timescales are less than half a day for BC emitted from tropical and mid-latitude source regions, and about 1 week for BC emitted from high latitude regions in all seasons except summer. We find that East Asian emissions contribute most to the BC loading over the North Pacific, while South American, African and Australian emissions dominate BC loadings over the South Pacific. Dominant source regions contributing to BC loadings in other parts of the globe are also assessed. The lifetime of BC originating from East Asia (i.e., the world's largest BC emitter) is found to be only 2.2 days, much shorter than the global average lifetime of 4.9 days, making East Asia's contribution to global burden only 36 % of BC from the second largest emitter, Africa. Thus, evaluating only relative emission rates without accounting for differences in aging timescales and deposition rates is not predictive of the contribution of a given source region to climate impacts. Our simulations indicate that lifetime of BC increases nearly linearly with aging timescale for all source regions. When aging rate is fast, the lifetime of BC is largely determined by factors that control local deposition rates (e.g. precipitation). The sensitivity of lifetime to aging timescale depends strongly on the initial hygroscopicity of freshly emitted BC. Our findings suggest that the aging timescale of BC varies significantly by region and season, and can strongly influence the contribution of source regions to BC burdens around the globe. Improving parameterizations of the aging process for BC is important for enhancing the predictive skill of air quality and climate models. Future observations that investigate the evolution of hygroscopicity of BC as it ages from different source regions to the remote atmosphere are urgently needed.

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