Spatial distributions and seasonal cycles of aerosol climate effects in India seen in global climate-aerosol model

Abstract. Climate-aerosol interactions in India are studied by employing the global climate-aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM and the GAINS inventory for anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Seasonal cycles and spatial distributions of radiative forcing and the temperature and rainfall responses are presented for different model setups. While total aerosol radiative forcing is strongest in the summer, anthropogenic forcing is considerably stronger in winter than in summer. Local seasonal temperature anomalies caused by aerosols are mostly negative with some exceptions, e.g. Northern India in March–May and the eastern Himalayas in September–November. Rainfall increases due to the elevated heat pump (EHP) mechanism and decreases due to solar dimming effects are studied. Aerosol light absorption does increase rainfall significantly in Northern India, but effects due to solar dimming and circulation work to cancel the increase. The total aerosol effect on rainfall is negative when considering all effects if assuming that aerosols have cooled the Northern Indian Ocean by 0.5 °K compared to the equator.

Download Full-text

Spatial distributions and seasonal cycles of aerosol climate effects in India seen in a global climate–aerosol model

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-14-10177-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 14 (18) ◽

pp. 10177-10192 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

S. V. Henriksson ◽

J.-P. Pietikäinen ◽

A.-P. Hyvärinen ◽

P. Räisänen ◽

K. Kupiainen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Radiative Forcing ◽

Global Climate ◽

Carbon Surface ◽

Monsoon Circulation ◽

Seasonal Cycles ◽

Spatial Distributions ◽

Seasonal Temperature ◽

Aerosol Model ◽

Northern India ◽

Different Seasons

Abstract. Climate–aerosol interactions in India are studied by employing the global climate–aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM and the GAINS inventory for anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Model validation is done for black carbon surface concentrations in Mukteshwar and for features of the monsoon circulation. Seasonal cycles and spatial distributions of radiative forcing and the temperature and rainfall responses are presented for different model setups. While total aerosol radiative forcing is strongest in the summer, anthropogenic forcing is considerably stronger in winter than in summer. Local seasonal temperature anomalies caused by aerosols are mostly negative with some exceptions, e.g., parts of northern India in March–May. Rainfall increases due to the elevated heat pump (EHP) mechanism and decreases due to solar dimming mechanisms (SDMs) and the relative strengths of these effects during different seasons and for different model setups are studied. Aerosol light absorption does increase rainfall in northern India, but effects due to solar dimming and circulation work to cancel the increase. The total aerosol effect on rainfall is negative for northern India in the months of June–August, but during March–May the effect is positive for most model setups. These differences between responses in different seasons might help converge the ongoing debate on the EHPs and SDMs. Due to the complexity of the problem and known or potential sources for error and bias, the results should be interpreted cautiously as they are completely dependent on how realistic the model is. Aerosol–rainfall correlations and anticorrelations are shown not to be a reliable sole argument for deducing causality.

Download Full-text

Anthropogenic aerosol forcing under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

10.5194/acp-2019-606 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Marianne T. Lund ◽

Gunnar Myhre ◽

Bjørn H. Samset

Keyword(s):

Air Pollution ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Global Climate ◽

Radiative Transfer Model ◽

Transfer Model ◽

Air Pollution Control ◽

Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽

Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽

Aerosol Radiative Forcing ◽

Aerosol Forcing

Abstract. Emissions of anthropogenic aerosols are expected to change drastically over the coming decades, with potentially significant climate implications. Using the most recent generation of harmonized emission scenarios, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) as input to a global chemistry transport and radiative transfer model, we provide estimates of the projected future global and regional burdens and radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols under three different levels of air pollution control: strong (SSP1), medium (SSP2) and weak (SSP3). We find that the broader range of future air pollution emission trajectories spanned by the SSPs compared to previous scenarios translates into total aerosol forcing estimates in 2100 relative to 1750 ranging from −0.04 W m−2 in SSP1-1.9 to −0.51 W m−2 in SSP3-7.0. Compared to our 1750–2015 estimate of −0.61 W m−2, this shows that depending on the success of air pollution policies over the coming decades, aerosol radiative forcing may weaken by nearly 95 % or remain close to the pre-industrial to present-day level. In all three scenarios there is a positive forcing in 2100 relative to 2015, from 0.51 W m−2 in SSP1-1.9 to 0.04 W m−2 in SSP3-7.0. Results also demonstrate significant differences across regions and scenarios, especially in South Asia and Africa. While rapid weakening of the negative aerosol forcing following effective air quality policies will unmask more of the greenhouse gas-induced global warming, slow progress on mitigating air pollution will significantly enhance the atmospheric aerosol levels and risk to human health. In either case, the resulting impacts on regional and global climate can be significant.

Download Full-text

An empirical model of global climate – Part 2: Implications for future temperature

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions ◽

10.5194/acpd-12-23913-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 12 (9) ◽

pp. 23913-23974 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

N. R. Mascioli ◽

T. Canty ◽

R. J. Salawitch

Keyword(s):

Surface Temperature ◽

Climate Sensitivity ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Global Climate ◽

Climate Feedback ◽

Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽

Aerosol Radiative Forcing ◽

The Past ◽

Global Surface ◽

Aerosol Radiative

Abstract. IPCC (2007) has shown that atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) from various research centers simulate the rise in global mean surface temperature over the past century rather well, yet provide divergent estimates of temperature for the upcoming decades. We use an empirical model of global climate based on a multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis of the past global surface temperature anomalies (ΔT) to explore why GCMs might provide divergent estimates of future temperature. Our focus is on the interplay of three factors: net anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing (NAA RF), climate feedback (water vapor, clouds, surface albedo) in response to greenhouse gas radiative forcing (GHG RF), and ocean heat export (OHE). Our model is predicated on two key assumptions: whatever climate feedback is needed to account for past temperature rise will persist into the future and whatever fraction of anthropogenic RF (GHG RF + NAA RF) is exported to the oceans to match the observed rise in ocean heat content will also persist. Even with these assumptions, modeled future ΔT mimics the behavior of GCMs because the ~110 record of global surface temperature can not distinguish between two possibilities. If anthropogenic aerosols presently exert small cooling on global climate, feedback must be weak and the future rise in global average surface temperature in 2053, the time CO2 is projected to double according to RCP 8.5, could be moderate. If aerosols presently exert large cooling of global climate, feedback must be large and future ΔT when CO2 doubles could be substantial. Reduced uncertainty for climate projection requires observationally based constraints that can narrow the uncertainties that presently exist for net anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing as well as the totality of feedbacks that occur in response to a GHG RF perturbation. GCMs are often compared by evaluating the equilibrium response to a doubling of CO2, termed climate sensitivity. In our model framework, ΔT at the time CO2 doubles is nearly independent of OHE, because climate feedback must be adjusted to properly simulate observed temperature. Our simulations show that if a small fraction of anthropogenic RF is exported to the ocean, equilibrium climate sensitivity closely represents the modeled ΔT at the time CO2 doubles. Conversely, if this fraction is large, ΔT when CO2 doubles is much less than the equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. the model is now far from equilibrium). Similar behavior likely occurs within GCMs. We therefore suggest the dependence of climate sensitivity on OHE be factored into analyses that use this metric to compare and evaluate GCMs.

Download Full-text

Exploring the impact of aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty on shifts in ITCZ position and tropical rainfall in the near-term future

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-10202 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Amy Peace ◽

Ben Booth ◽

Ken Carslaw ◽

Leighton Regayre ◽

Lindsay Lee ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Energy Balance ◽

Northern Hemisphere ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽

Tropical Rainfall ◽

Aerosol Radiative Forcing ◽

Tropical Precipitation ◽

Near Term ◽

Aerosol Emissions ◽

Aerosol Radiative

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions over the industrial period have caused a negative but highly uncertain radiative forcing. This negative radiative forcing has had a cooling effect mainly over the northern hemisphere, affecting the atmospheric interhemispheric energy balance. Consequently aerosols have been linked to observed dynamical responses over the industrial period that depend on the atmospheric interhemispheric energy balance, such as changes in the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and resultant tropical precipitation shifts. However, over the course of the 21st century anthropogenic aerosol emissions are predicted to decline. The reduction in anthropogenic aerosol emissions will cause a positive radiative forcing relative to present day, creating a warming effect in the northern hemisphere. Hence, if the strength of aerosol radiative forcing modulates the magnitude of shifts in the ITCZ, then the large uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing will limit our understanding of how tropical precipitation will shift in the near-term future.We use a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of a global coupled climate model to investigate the link between aerosol radiative forcing and ITCZ and tropical rainfall shifts in the near-term future. The PPE consists of 20 simulations of the UK Met Office&#8217;s GC3.05 model with parameters perturbed from a range of model schemes. The ensemble was designed to sample uncertainties in future changes, and as a result spans a range of aerosol radiative forcings.The PPE reveals both northward and southwards shifts in the ITCZ position across the ensemble in the latter half of the 20th century and first half of the 21st century, as well as changes in width and intensity of the ITCZ. We find a correlation between the shift in the ITCZ position and the magnitude of aerosol radiative forcing and AOD trends. However, the correlations in our ensemble are not as strong as those cited in previous studies that use multi-model ensembles. The potential causes of this difference are investigated. We also compare our model output to aerosol, cloud and radiation observations in attempt to identify the most plausible future aerosol-driven climate responses.

Download Full-text

Re-assessment of pre-industrial fires in CMIP6 models and the implications for radiative forcing

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-18190 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ken Carslaw ◽

Cat Scott ◽

Masaru Yoshioka ◽

Douglas Hamilton ◽

Fiona O’Connor ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Black Carbon ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Ice Core ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Carbon Surface ◽

Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽

Aerosol Radiative Forcing ◽

Fire Emissions ◽

Fire Activity ◽

Aerosol Emissions

Assessment of anthropogenic radiative forcing requires a robust understanding of the composition of the pre-industrial baseline atmosphere from which calculations are madeIt is often assumed that fire activity and the associated aerosol emissions were lower in the pre-industrial period than in the present day. However, some lines of evidence suggest that fire activity may have halved since the pre-industrial period.&#160;Here we compare the simulated ratio of pre-industrial (c.1750CE and c.1850CE) to present-day black carbon surface concentrations in five ESMs (CNRM-ESM2-1, EC-Earth3, IPSL-CM6, NorESM1.2, UKESM1), using historical fire emissions from the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to the ratio in Northern Hemisphere ice-core records.&#160;We find that when forced with CMIP6 fire emissions all ESMs overestimate the present-day to pre-industrial black carbon ratio. This is consistent with previous studies and suggests that the contribution of fire to the composition of the pre-industrial atmosphere may be too low. If the contrast between the pre-industrial and present-day atmospheres in these models is too great, they are likely to overestimate the strength of the anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing.&#160;&#160;We extend our analysis to include additional ESMs providing historical simulations for CMIP6, as included in the IPCC&#8217;s Sixth Assessment Report.&#160;

Download Full-text

Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Forcing Efficiency in the UVB for Regions Affected by Saharan and Asian Mineral Dust

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences ◽

10.1175/2008jas2816.1 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 66 (4) ◽

pp. 1033-1040 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

O. E. García ◽

A. M. Díaz ◽

F. J. Expósito ◽

J. P. Díaz ◽

A. Redondas ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Aerosol Optical Depth ◽

Optical Depth ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Climate Model ◽

Mineral Dust ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Aerosol Radiative Forcing ◽

Benchmark Database ◽

Aerosol Radiative

Abstract The influence of mineral dust on ultraviolet energy transfer is studied for two different mineralogical origins. The aerosol radiative forcing ΔF and the forcing efficiency at the surface ΔFeff in the range 290–325 nm were estimated in ground-based stations affected by the Saharan and Asian deserts during the dusty seasons. UVB solar measurements were taken from the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Data Center (WOUDC) for four Asian stations (2000–04) and from the Santa Cruz Observatory, Canary Islands (2002–03), under Gobi and Sahara Desert influences, respectively. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical depth at 550 nm was used to characterize the aerosol load τ, whereas the aerosol index provided by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) sensor was employed to identify the mineral dust events. The ΔF is strongly affected by the aerosol load, the values found being comparable in both regions during the dusty seasons. Under those conditions, ΔF values as large as −1.29 ± 0.53 W m−2 (τ550 = 0.48 ± 0.24) and −1.43 ± 0.38 W m−2 (τ550 = 0.54 ± 0.26) were reached under Saharan and Asian dust conditions, respectively. Nevertheless, significant differences have been observed in the aerosol radiative forcing per unit of aerosol optical depth in the slant path, τS. The maximum ΔFeff values associated with dust influences were −1.55 ± 0.20 W m−2 τS550−1 for the Saharan region and −0.95 ± 0.11 W m−2 τS550−1 in the Asian area. These results may be used as a benchmark database for establishing aerosol corrections in UV satellite products or in global climate model estimations.

Download Full-text

Influence of future air pollution mitigation strategies on total aerosol radiative forcing

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-8-6405-2008 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 8 (21) ◽

pp. 6405-6437 ◽

Cited By ~ 33

Author(s):

S. Kloster ◽

F. Dentener ◽

J. Feichter ◽

F. Raes ◽

J. van Aardenne ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Air Pollution ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Radiation Budget ◽

Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽

Aerosol Radiative Forcing ◽

Pollution Mitigation ◽

Aerosol Forcing ◽

Future Air Pollution ◽

Aerosol Radiative

Abstract. We apply different aerosol and aerosol precursor emission scenarios reflecting possible future control strategies for air pollution in the ECHAM5-HAM model, and simulate the resulting effect on the Earth's radiation budget. We use two opposing future mitigation strategies for the year 2030: one in which emission reduction legislation decided in countries throughout the world are effectively implemented (current legislation; CLE 2030) and one in which all technical options for emission reductions are being implemented independent of their cost (maximum feasible reduction; MFR 2030). We consider the direct, semi-direct and indirect radiative effects of aerosols. The total anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing defined as the difference in the top-of-the-atmosphere radiation between 2000 and pre-industrial times amounts to −2.00 W/m2. In the future this negative global annual mean aerosol radiative forcing will only slightly change (+0.02 W/m2) under the "current legislation" scenario. Regionally, the effects are much larger: e.g. over Eastern Europe radiative forcing would increase by +1.50 W/m2 because of successful aerosol reduction policies, whereas over South Asia it would decrease by −1.10 W/m2 because of further growth of emissions. A "maximum feasible reduction" of aerosols and their precursors would lead to an increase of the global annual mean aerosol radiative forcing by +1.13 W/m2. Hence, in the latter case, the present day negative anthropogenic aerosol forcing could be more than halved by 2030 because of aerosol reduction policies and climate change thereafter will be to a larger extent be controlled by greenhouse gas emissions. We combined these two opposing future mitigation strategies for a number of experiments focusing on different sectors and regions. In addition, we performed sensitivity studies to estimate the importance of future changes in oxidant concentrations and the importance of the aerosol microphysical coupling within the range of expected future changes. For changes in oxidant concentrations caused by future air pollution mitigation, we do not find a significant effect for the global annual mean radiative aerosol forcing. In the extreme case of only abating SO2 or carbonaceous emissions to a maximum feasible extent, we find deviations from additivity for the radiative forcing over anthropogenic source regions up to 10% compared to an experiment abating both at the same time.

Download Full-text

Reply to “Comment on ‘Rethinking the Lower Bound on Aerosol Radiative Forcing’”

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-17-0034.1 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 30 (16) ◽

pp. 6585-6589 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Bjorn Stevens ◽

Stephanie Fiedler

Keyword(s):

Twentieth Century ◽

Lower Bound ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Climate Models ◽

Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽

Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽

Aerosol Radiative Forcing ◽

Clear Sky ◽

The North ◽

Aerosol Forcing

Kretzschmar et al., in a comment in 2017, use the spread in the output of aerosol–climate models to argue that the models refute the hypothesis (presented in a paper by Stevens in 2015) that for the mid-twentieth-century warming to be consistent with observations, then the present-day aerosol forcing, [Formula: see text] must be less negative than −1 W m−2. The main point of contention is the nature of the relationship between global SO2 emissions and [Formula: see text] In contrast to the concave (log-linear) relationship used by Stevens and in earlier studies, whereby [Formula: see text] becomes progressively less sensitive to SO2 emissions, some models suggest a convex relationship, which would imply a less negative lower bound. The model that best exemplifies this difference, and that is most clearly in conflict with the hypothesis of Stevens, does so because of an implausible aerosol response to the initial rise in anthropogenic aerosol precursor emissions in East and South Asia—already in 1975 this model’s clear-sky reflectance from anthropogenic aerosol over the North Pacific exceeds present-day estimates of the clear-sky reflectance by the total aerosol. The authors perform experiments using a new (observationally constrained) climatology of anthropogenic aerosols to further show that the effects of changing patterns of aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions during the late twentieth century have, for the same global emissions, relatively little effect on [Formula: see text] These findings suggest that the behavior Kretzschmar et al. identify as being in conflict with the lower bound in Stevens arises from an implausible relationship between SO2 emissions and [Formula: see text] and thus provides little basis for revising this lower bound.

Download Full-text

MACv2-SP: a parameterization of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect for use in CMIP6

Geoscientific Model Development ◽

10.5194/gmd-10-433-2017 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 433-452 ◽

Cited By ~ 57

Author(s):

Bjorn Stevens ◽

Stephanie Fiedler ◽

Stefan Kinne ◽

Karsten Peters ◽

Sebastian Rast ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Optical Properties ◽

Radiative Forcing ◽

Industrial Emissions ◽

Max Planck ◽

Aerosol Optical Properties ◽

Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽

Aerosol Radiative Forcing ◽

Clear Sky ◽

Aerosol Forcing ◽

Aerosol Radiative

Abstract. A simple plume implementation of the second version (v2) of the Max Planck Institute Aerosol Climatology, MACv2-SP, is described. MACv2-SP provides a prescription of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect. It was created to provide a harmonized description of post-1850 anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing for climate modeling studies. MACv2-SP has been designed to be easy to implement, change and use, and thereby enable studies exploring the climatic effects of different patterns of aerosol radiative forcing, including a Twomey effect. MACv2-SP is formulated in terms of nine spatial plumes associated with different major anthropogenic source regions. The shape of the plumes is fit to the Max Planck Institute Aerosol Climatology, version 2, whose present-day (2005) distribution is anchored by surface-based observations. Two types of plumes are considered: one predominantly associated with biomass burning, the other with industrial emissions. These differ in the prescription of their annual cycle and in their optical properties, thereby implicitly accounting for different contributions of absorbing aerosol to the different plumes. A Twomey effect for each plume is prescribed as a change in the host model's background cloud-droplet population density using relationships derived from satellite data. Year-to-year variations in the amplitude of the plumes over the historical period (1850–2016) are derived by scaling the plumes with associated national emission sources of SO2 and NH3. Experiments using MACv2-SP are performed with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. The globally and annually averaged instantaneous and effective aerosol radiative forcings are estimated to be −0.6 and −0.5 W m−2, respectively. Forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions (the Twomey effect) offsets the reduction of clear-sky forcing by clouds, so that the net effect of clouds on the aerosol forcing is small; hence, the clear-sky forcing, which is more readily measurable, provides a good estimate of the total aerosol forcing.

Download Full-text