scholarly journals Sensitivity of precipitation forecasts to convective parameterization in the October 2007 Flash Flood in the Valencia Region (Eastern Spain)

2010 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
pp. 7-11
Author(s):  
I. Gómez ◽  
F. Pastor ◽  
M. Estrela
Keyword(s):  
Flash Flood ◽  
Mediterranean Coast ◽  
Atmospheric Modeling ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Rain Event ◽  
Convective Parameterization ◽  
The North ◽  
Accumulated Rainfall ◽  
Convective Parameterization Scheme

Abstract. The Valencia region, on the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula, is an area prone to torrential rains, especially the north of Alicante province and the south of Valencia province. In October 2007, a torrential rain event with accumulated rainfall values exceeding 400 mm in less than 24 h affected the aforementioned areas, producing flash floods that caused extensive economic losses and human casualties. Several simulations of this rain event have been performed with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to test the influence of the different convective parameterization scheme implemented in the model on the precipitation forecast.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of a mesoscale model to different convective parameterization schemes in a heavy rain event

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 343-357 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Gómez ◽  
F. Pastor ◽  
M. J. Estrela
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Mediterranean Coast ◽  
Atmospheric Modeling ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Rain Event ◽  
Regional Atmospheric Modeling System ◽  
Convective Parameterization ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Regional Atmospheric Modeling

Abstract. The Valencia region, on the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula, is propitious to heavy precipitation, especially the area encompassing the South of Valencia province and the North of the Alicante province. In October 2007 a torrential rain affected the aforementioned area, producing accumulated rainfall values greater than 400 mm in less than 24 h and flash-floods that caused extensive economic losses and human casualties. This rain event has been studied in numerical experiments using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System. The present paper deals with the effect of using the different convective parameterizations (CP) currently implemented in the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (Kuo and Kain-Fritsch) in the forecast results, in particular on precipitation forecast. Sensitivity tests have been run with and without these parameterizations activated in a series of combinations of the different grids. Results are very different depending on the model convective parameterization setting. A statistical verification has also been undertaken by calculating different skill scores for each simulation in the experiment.

scholarly journals Verification of precipitation forecasts of MM5 model over Epirus, NW Greece, for various convective parameterization schemes

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1393-1405 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. A. Sindosi ◽  
A. Bartzokas ◽  
V. Kotroni ◽  
K. Lagouvardos
Keyword(s):  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Meteorological Model ◽  
Convective Parameterization ◽  
Parameterization Schemes ◽  
Mm5 Model ◽  
Convective Parameterization Scheme ◽  
High Precipitation Events ◽  
High Precipitation

Abstract. The mesoscale meteorological model MM5 is applied to 22 selected days with intense precipitation in the region of Epirus, NW Greece. At first, it was investigated whether and to what extend an increased horizontal resolution (from 8 to 2 km) improves the quantitative precipitation forecasts. The model skill was examined for the 12-h accumulated precipitation recorded at 14 meteorological stations located in Epirus and by using categorical and descriptive statistics. Then, the precipitation forecast skill for the 2 km grid was studied: (a) without and (b) with the activation of a convective parameterization scheme. From the above study, the necessity of the use of a scheme at the 2 km grid is assessed. Furthermore, three different convective parameterization schemes are compared: (a) Betts-Miller, (b) Grell and (c) Kain-Fritsch-2 in order to reveal the scheme, resulting in the best precipitation forecast skill in Epirus. Kain-Fritsch-2 and Grell give better results with the latter being the best for the high precipitation events.

scholarly journals Using Betts-Miller-Janjic convective parameterization scheme in H14-31 model to forecast heavy rainfall in Vietnam

2007 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 83-97
Author(s):  
Vu Thanh Hang ◽  
Kieu Thi Xin
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Parameterization Scheme ◽  
Model Resolution ◽  
Convective Parameterization ◽  
Rainfall Forecast ◽  
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Convective Adjustment ◽  
Convective Parameterization Scheme ◽  
The Tropics

According to Krishnamurti, improvements of physical parameterizations will mainly affect simulations for the tropics [10]. The study of William A. Gallus Jr. showed that the higher the model resolution and more detailed convective parameterizations, the better the skill in quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) in general [16]. The quality of precipitation forecast is so sensitive to convective parameterization scheme (CPS) used in the model as well as model resolution. The fact shows that for high resolution regional model like H14-31 CPS based on low-level moisture convergence as Tiedtke did not give good heavy rainfall forecast in Vietnam. In this paper we used the scheme of Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) based on the convective adjustment toward tropical observationally structures in reality instead of Tiedtke in Hl4-31. Statistical verification results and verification using CRA method of Hl4-31 of two CPSs for seperated cases and for three rain seasons (2003-2005) shows that heavy rainfall forecast of Hl4-31/BMJ is better than one of H14-31/TK for Vietnam-South China Sea. CRA verification also shows that it is possible to say that heavy rainfall forecast skill of l-I14-31/BMJ in tropics is nearly similar to the skill of LAPS of Australia.

The effects of the storm Gloria in Catalonia: The value of quick-response geological inventories as a tool for risk management

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marta González ◽  
Maria Jesus Micheo ◽  
Jordi Pinyol ◽  
Maria Rosa Carles ◽  
Eulàlia Pi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Flow Direction ◽  
Flood Plain ◽  
Mediterranean Coast ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Quick Response ◽  
Lower Section ◽  
Slope Movements ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact

<p>The storm Gloria was an exceptional episode of east storm occurred in the north and east of Spain from Sunday 19<sup>th</sup> to Thursday 23<sup>rd</sup> of January 2020. The impact was especially strong in the Mediterranean coast, causing the overflow of some rivers, abundant slope movements, cuts in the road and rail network, isolation of populations, and huge damage on the coastline.  It was classified as historical, not only because of the multiplicity of phenomena (wind, rain, snow, and waves) that happened simultaneously, but also because of the extension, affecting the entire Catalan territory. In order to have an overview of the effects of the storm in Catalonia, the Institut Cartogràfic i Geològic of Catalonia has carried out a quick response report (González et. Al., 2020), which has consisted of an inventory of the geomorphological impact and its consequences. The work carried out includes the production of post-event orthoimages of the coastal strip and some fluvial courses, a post-event field survey during the days immediately after, and a compilation of the information published in the media between 01/20/2020 and 02/18/2020. Also, a data collection campaign through online forms sent by email has been carried out, which provides more information of the sea gale effects, and validates and complete the preliminary inventory of slope movements. Thus, an inventory of slope movements has been obtained with a total of 352 documented landslides throughout the Catalan territory. In addition, a geomorphological mapping with the changes associated to river dynamics has been carried out, in two of the most affected sectors in NE Catalonia: the lower section of the Tordera river and the lower section of Ter river. This 1: 5 000 scale cartography, identify geomorphological elements from fluvial dynamics (active fluvial channels during the flood, active flood plain, erosion scarps of river banks, flow direction lines) and from coastal dynamics (washoverfans, coastal erosion and new creation stream-mouth bars). Finally, based on the analysis of the data collected, an estimate has been made of the impact that the storm Gloria has had on the territory, and how it has affected the different municipalities, in terms of damages and economic losses. The results of this quick response report allow (i) to have a geomorphological record of the storm extent in the short term, (ii) to provide basic information for the management and recovery of river areas, and (iii) to propose new strategies for geological risk management, among others.</p>

scholarly journals Evaluation of MM5 High-Resolution Real-Time Forecasts over the Urban Area of Athens, Greece

2004 ◽  
Vol 43 (11) ◽  
pp. 1666-1678 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Kotroni ◽  
K. Lagouvardos
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Thunderstorm Activity ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Parameterization Scheme ◽  
Cold Bias ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Convective Parameterization ◽  
Convective Parameterization Scheme

Abstract In this paper the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) forecast skill over an area of complex terrain is evaluated. Namely, the model is verified over a period of 1 yr (2002) over the greater area of Athens, Greece, for its near-surface temperature and wind forecasts, at 8- and 2-km grid spacing, but also over a 15-day period for the summer thunderstorm activity forecasts. For the near-surface temperature a cold bias is evident. The model is, in general, unable to reproduce the summer heat waves observed in the area. The increase of the grid resolution, from 8 to 2 km, results in an improvement of the forecast skill. Postprocessing of the forecasts by applying a Kalman-filtering correction method was very effective for both the 8- and the 2-km forecasts. For the forecast skill of wind, the analysis showed that there is not any net increase of the errors with increasing forecast time for the 48-h forecast period, the mean absolute errors, in general, present the lowest values at noontime, and the increase in resolution, from 8 to 2 km, results in a slight decrease of these errors. The analysis of the model skill to accurately forecast summertime precipitation showed that the 2-km simulations, without activation of the convective parameterization scheme, were unable to reproduce the observed thunderstorm activity. Sensitivity tests for the same period with simulations in which the convective parameterization was not activated for both the 8- and the 2-km simulations were still inaccurate, while activation of the convective parameterization scheme at all grids (even at 2 km) considerably increased the precipitation forecast skill.

7000 years of paleostorm activity in the NW Mediterranean Sea in response to Holocene climate events

2012 ◽  
Vol 77 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre Sabatier ◽  
Laurent Dezileau ◽  
Christophe Colin ◽  
Louis Briqueu ◽  
Frédéric Bouchette ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Clay Mineralogy ◽  
Mediterranean Coast ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
The North ◽  
Nw Mediterranean ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Nw Mediterranean Sea

A high-resolution record of paleostorm events along the French Mediterranean coast over the past 7000 years was established from a lagoonal sediment core in the Gulf of Lions. Integrating grain size, faunal analysis, clay mineralogy and geochemistry data with a chronology derived from radiocarbon dating, we recorded seven periods of increased storm activity at 6300–6100, 5650–5400, 4400–4050, 3650–3200, 2800–2600, 1950–1400 and 400–50 cal yr BP (in the Little Ice Age). In contrast, our results show that the Medieval Climate Anomaly (1150–650 cal yr BP) was characterised by low storm activity.The evidence for high storm activity in the NW Mediterranean Sea is in agreement with the changes in coastal hydrodynamics observed over the Eastern North Atlantic and seems to correspond to Holocene cooling in the North Atlantic. Periods of low SSTs there may have led to a stronger meridional temperature gradient and a southward migration of the westerlies. We hypothesise that the increase in storm activity during Holocene cold events over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean regions was probably due to an increase in the thermal gradient that led to an enhanced lower tropospheric baroclinicity over a large Central Atlantic-European domain.

Effects of 2017 Early Flash Flooding on Agriculture in Haor Areas of Sunamganj

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 117-125
Author(s):  
S Mondal ◽  
L Akter ◽  
HJ Hiya ◽  
MA Farukh
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
Fish Production ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Flash Flooding ◽  
The North ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
Boro Rice

The Sunamganj district is covered by major Haor systems in the north-eastern region of Bangladesh. Flash flood is the most commonly occurring water related disaster in the Haor areas. During the flash flood it is very common that people lost their primary agricultural productions which are the only source of their livelihood. The present study focuses on the effects of 2017 early flash flooding on rice and fish production of Sunamganj Haor areas. The flood caused enormous damage to agriculture such as rice especially Boro rice and fish production on which the Haor dwellers rely upon for their livelihood. The total affected land of Boro rice cultivation in Haors of Sunamganj was 149,224 hectare and the total amount of damaged rice was 393,855 metric ton (MT). The total number of affected farmers was 315,084. The early flash flood also affects the quality of Haor water which caused the death of fishes. The total amount of damaged fish was 49.75 MT and the loss was 158.70 lakh taka. The total number of affected fishermen was 44,445. This findings could be very useful for the environmental scientists to predict the probable future effects on agricultural production due to early flash flood events in Sunamganj Haors areas. Environ. Sci. & Natural Resources, 12(1&2): 117-125, 2019

scholarly journals Impact of enriched analyses on regional numerical forecasts over southeastern South America during SALLJEX

2014 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 315-330
Author(s):  
Yanina García Skabar ◽  
Matilde Nicolini
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
South America ◽  
Atmospheric Modeling ◽  
South American ◽  
The South ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Accumulated Rainfall ◽  
Low Level Jet ◽  
The Impact

During the warm season 2002-2003, the South American Low-Level Jet Experiment (SALLJEX) was carried out in southeastern South America. Taking advantage of the unique database collected in the region, a set of analyses is generated for the SALLJEX period assimilating all available data. The spatial and temporal resolution of this new set of analyses is higher than that of analyses available up to present for southeastern South America. The aim of this paper is to determine the impact of assimilating data into initial fields on mesoscale forecasts in the region, using the Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) with particular emphasis on the South American Low-Level Jet (SALLJ) structure and on rainfall forecasts. For most variables, using analyses with data assimilated as initial fields has positive effects on short term forecast. Such effect is greater in wind variables, but not significant in forecasts longer than 24 hours. In particular, data assimilation does not improve forecasts of 24-hour accumulated rainfall, but it has slight positive effects on accumulated rainfall between 6 and 12 forecast hours. As the main focus is on the representation of the SALLJ, the effect of data assimilation in its forecast was explored. Results show that SALLJ is fairly predictable however assimilating additional observation data has small impact on the forecast of SALLJ timing and intensity. The strength of the SALLJ is underestimated independently of data assimilation. However, Root mean square error (RMSE) and BIAS values reveal the positive effect of data assimilation up to 18-hours forecasts with a greater impact near higher topography.

scholarly journals Scale invariant events and dry spells for medium-resolution local rain data

2014 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 555-567 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Deluca ◽  
Á. Corral
Keyword(s):  
Finite Size ◽  
Mediterranean Coast ◽  
Rain Event ◽  
Scale Invariant ◽  
Scaling Properties ◽  
Medium Resolution ◽  
Dry Spells ◽  
Dry Spell ◽  
Rain Events ◽  
Rain Data

Abstract. We analyze distributions of rain-event sizes, rain-event durations, and dry-spell durations for data obtained from a network of 20 rain gauges scattered in a region of the northwestern Mediterranean coast. While power-law distributions model the dry-spell durations with a common exponent 1.50 ± 0.05, density analysis is inconclusive for event sizes and event durations, due to finite size effects. However, we present alternative evidence of the existence of scale invariance in these distributions by means of different data collapses of the distributions. These results demonstrate that scaling properties of rain events and dry spells can also be observed for medium-resolution rain data.

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